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ome from courtesy of the inter american development bank we get this nice map breaking down the sources of us remittance flows to latin america by state click to enlarge no real surprises here but it s a kinda nice map no posted by gringo juan at 3 53 pm 4 comments labels iadb remittances monday july 19 2010 toward a better understanding of poverty wonkish allow me to get my wonk on it s becoming an increasingly mainstream idea that our traditional poverty measures just don t cut it for years the un human development report has been playing with alternative measures well this year we get the latest the multidimensional poverty index mpi in their own words the new index measures the combination of deprivations that each household experiences the mpi uses microeconomic data to reflect the percentage of households that experience overlapping deprivations in three dimensions education health and living conditions this month we get a lil taste of what s to come the oxford poverty human development initiative ophi with the support of the united nations development programme have released some preliminary results 104 developing countries in advance of the upcoming 2010 human development report to be released in the fall first off a little bit more about the mpi the idea is that by looking beyond mere income poverty one can ascertain a better understanding of the specific things health education sanitation electricity that contribute to the overall picture of poverty governments ngos or even random bloggers can then look at the data to figure out what the greatest needs are and where it makes sense to intervene the mpi also calculates the intensity of poverty by looking at how many different measures a certain population is lacking as ophi notes a person who is deprived in 70 of the indicators is clearly worse off than someone who is deprived in 40 of the indicators sounds good in theory but what about in practice well some countries have already adopted a similar index including mexico the index can be tailored to individual countries specific circumstances different countries have different needs different areas in need of improvement in mexico for instance the indicators used are current income per capita education access to healthcare access to social security housing quality and space basic services in homes and access to food in december 2009 mexico became the first country to implement a form of the mpi with some astonishing results as ophi writes the results show that there is a striking contrast between deprivation in income only and the multidimensional measure only 1 2 per cent of indigenous people are vulnerable strictly in terms of income even across the entire population only 4 4 per cent of mexicans are income vulnerable only whereas 44 2 per cent live in multidimensional poverty the measure distinguishes between a household which is poor in one dimension and one that is poor in several dimensions simultaneously it is also decomposable by population group indigenous non indigenous over 65 under 17 etc and by geographic regions for example comparison of mexico city and oaxaca shows that households in oaxaca are more deprived in terms of basic services at home but residents of the mexico city are lacking in healthcare access nationally the rate of extreme multidimensional poverty defined as at least three deprivations plus insufficient income is 10 5 per cent with an average of 3 9 deprivations whereas among the indigenous people of mexico the rate of extreme multidimensional poverty is 39 2 per cent with an average of 4 2 deprivations some really interesting and positive findings positive in the sense that one can gain a much more accurate picture of what the problems are and where they are i would think that these sorts of measures would gain in popularity pretty quickly maybe especially in latin america venezuela although not included in the preliminary findings would stand to be an ideal candidate for this measure poverty measures in venezuela largely rely solely on income but over the last decade access to health care education food etc have by and large all increased dramatically a new poverty measure may more accurately reflect that reality in any case onto the data one thing to remember though is that not all these numbers are from the same year bolivia for instance is calculated based on 2003 data argentina with data from 2005 also for each country measured there is a more detailed country breakdown so if you got a hankerin to see the complete breakdown of poverty in say burkina faso look no further perhaps the coolest thing about the data is the interactive map that lets you scroll over countries sort the data every which way and is pleasing on the eyes as well but since it s not embeddable we ll just give you less pretty but just as useful charts i suggest checking out the site though and playing with the data yourself let s take a look at the three dimensions the mpi looks at deprived in education deprived in health and deprived in living standards but first a look at the percent of people who are mpi poor after being put through maladjusted charts pretty interesting stuff here first thing that jumps out at me is the low levels seen in many countries especially ecuador for example with just 2 2 of people mpi poor 2003 data compare this to the 51 2 poverty rate from 2004 based on cepal s numbers my gut reaction is that this could be counter productive by making it look as though poverty isn t as big an issue although maybe it s just a reflection of some really outstanding social policies on the other end of the spectrum free market darling peru has an outstanding 19 8 of her people mpi poor the data is from 2004 this puts peru closer to the central american countries than to most of south america next we ll take a look at the breakdown of those poor and deprived in education so for instance brazil who is at the lower end of mpi poverty rates still has a significant problem with access to education this is the type of analysis these alternative measures allow on the other hand it seems like peru s high mpi poverty rate is not being driven by a lack of access to education but perhaps health let s take a look so it doesn t look like access to health care is driving peru s high mpi rate must be the final measure poor and deprived in living standards colombia where there is currently a pretty large debate over health care ranks pretty poorly here with 17 5 argentina middle of the road for education has the top rank in health finally a look at living standards which includes things such as electricity sanitation having a floor cooking fuel etc indeed here we see that peru s high mpi rate is largely driven by deprivation in living standards even topping bolivia and honduras in this category although for the most part you can tell what is causing the mpi rates by looking at these three measures the specific country breakdowns provided by ophi are even more detailed and contain pretty lil pie charts like this one for peru you might need to click that for a larger image but you can see the green shaded area living standards makes up the largest contribution to mpi although it s pretty evenly distributed a lack of cooking fuel is a significant driver overall a high level of child mortality is the leading contributor to peru s mpi each country that the researchers look at are broken down like this so i chose to look at peru but go to the site and pick your poison the country breakdowns also include comparisons to the national poverty measure and other measures like living on 2 a day 1 25 a day etc there s a lot to chew on here and plenty more you can find out over at the database but definitely some food for thought i m not sure if this is the best measure and as the example of mexico shows it may be more beneficial to tailor these indexes on a country level although this would sure make comparisons harder what is clear is that how one calculates poverty has a significant impact on the results and it would certainly behoove us all to have a more accurate picture of what poverty is and how to combat it i m sure there are flaws here not the least of which is the outdated data but i commend the researchers at ophi and undp with a solid step in the right direction cartoon from polyp check out the website for more posted by jakob at 10 48 pm 0 comments labels latin america new poverty measures peru poverty undp wonk do financial markets think spain will default sorta but that won t stop the government and european authorities from inflicting pain on their populations in the name of fiscal austerity as i m sure mal adjusted s readers already know spain is the latest object of european sovereign debt fears following greece s lead spain s borrowing costs have increased over the last two months on concerns that the government won t be able to service it s debt and will face a rollover crisis as a consequence the government is moving ahead with large austerity plans cutting spending and raising taxes while unemployment remains above 20 percent advocates of austerity claim that if the government doesn t make tough choices to bring down its deficit and reassure creditors interest rates will spike emerging market style causing the debt to explode spain the argument goes will find itself forced to default on its debt potentially bringing down the whole eurozone with it austerity advocates in other words argue that markets think spain is in danger of defaulting and if we don t heed their warning we ll have serious trouble but first of all that s a stupid anthropomorphism markets don t have agency or thoughts last time i checked but more to the point assuming markets are capable of thinking anything do they actually think spain is in danger of defaulting well one way of answering that question is to use the price of credit default swaps cds on spain s public debt that is how much it costs to insure oneself against the possibility of a default spain implicit probably of default april july 2010 the graph above courtesy of mal adjusted graphs shows the implicit probability of default on spain s government bonds the idea is simple the price of ensuring oneself against a default should reflect the chance of default and how much of their money investors expect to get back in the event of a default i e how big of a haircut bondholders expect in other words the price of a cds should equal the chance of default times the haircut rate the price to insure oneself against default is higher the higher the expected chance of default and the larger the haircut so the orange line above shows the implicit probability of default under a relatively optimistic assumption about the size of expected haircuts in this case i m assuming markets only expect to lose 10 on every 100 worth of bonds as can be seen above under this assumption at the beginning of april markets only thought there was an 11 chance of default but then as all the sovereign debt hysteria surrounding greece started making headlines markets started to think the chance of default was much higher reaching 28 on may 6 but here s the thing this is only the case if markets expect the default to be a very small one getting back 90 of your money when a government defaults is relatively rare in the history of sovereign debt crises so what if we assume spain is like argentina or russia and if the government defaults investors would only get back 30 for every 100 well the yellow line above shows just this scenario and as can be seen the chance of default is really really low in fact the crisis hysteria back in may shows up as nothing but a tiny blip peaking at a terrifying 3 9 so what s the moral of the story the fact of the matter is that if markets really do think a default is likely it s not reflected in market prices which are after all the only coherent measure of what markets think that or they don t expect to take a very big hit in the unlikely event the government decides to default in other words markets either think spain is like argentina but the actual chance of default is really low or they think the chance of default is high but don t expect to actually lose any significant amount of money then do the markets think spain will default sorta should the government heed their warning no but that doesn t mean it can t seriously structurally mal adjust itself to fight imaginary threats in the meantime posted by gringo juan at 12 32 pm 1 comments labels argentina austerity chance of default sovereign debt crisis spain sunday july 18 2010 weekend update shall we begin our journey through the intertubes begins with the 10 year commemoration of beloved plan colombia which was last tuesday wola has the good word despite the popular belief that it has been a success wola writes looked at more closely though colombia s security gains are partial possibly reversible and weighed down by collateral damage they have carried a great cost in lives and resources progress on security has been stagnating and even reversing scandals show that the government carrying out these security policies has harmed human rights and democratic institutions progress against illegal drug supplies has been disappointing and wealth is being concentrated in ever fewer hands check out the link to read the whole report complete with all the statistics complete with pretty charts to back it up in the polling department otto s got the breakdown in peru puts it better than i could so in his own words lord help the world keiko i m not the continuation of fujimori policies fujimori make that fuji freakin mori is ahead with 22 of voter intention second is luis interesting castañeda and third still creeping up is ex pres alejandro toledo who still has my five bucks as most likely winner right now and i m no real fan of his before you say anything sue myrick r nc takes home the wild eyed theory of the week from peter krupa at lat am daily ladies and gentleman your u s congress great post at the mex files on a spanish vocab website that is entertaining and instructing in equal measure check out some hilarious examples or check out the site itself effective swearing in the d f colombia made a totally unsurprising announcement saying there are guerilla camps on the venezuelan side of the border they even gave the coordinates 23 kilometers from the border c mon colombia that s a pretty big remote border i m not impressed i also would disagree with boz that uribe is doing santos a favor by taking the hit right before he leaves office if santos denounces the whole thing and calls for dialogue with chavez directly then maybe he makes out okay but it is pretty unreasonable to think that chavez wouldn t hold santos who was responsible for the raid into ecuador as equally responsible for this there was just no need to make a big public display over this except to do exactly that make a big public display now colombia says they will ...
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