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Text of the page (random words):
minimum wage unemployment study fooled by dividends trade like a buddhist personal income taxes critical mass retirement calculator social security privatization calculator true mortgage cost calculator partners about crystalbull dashboard ml returns subscribe login subscribe featured model vixen 2023 177 68 2022 27 14 2021 431 88 hypothetical results based on current model click to see hypothetical historical performance of the crystalbull timing models login subscribe unlock the live market risk posture subscribers see the model s risk on off posture invested and the vixen vix reading updated as conditions change subscribe to unlock the crystalbull vixen indicator this is our most aggressive timing model trading the vix volatility index this measures market sentiment throughout the trading day and tries to find unsustainable levels of greed and fear this strategy is high risk with high volatility and large drawdowns it is not suited for more than a very small percentage of any portfolio note this is a contrarian indicator it sells red into greed and buys green on fear charts historical daily intraday alerts recent the crystalbull matador indicator this is the most sensitive version of the crystalbull stock market timing model this measures market conditions throughout the trading day and is our best indicator for the immediate market direction this model is trained on the qqq etf its hypothetical results are shown at the top right note this is a contrarian indicator it sells red into strength and buys green on weakness charts historical daily intraday alerts recent the crystalbull trading indicator this is a smoothed version of the crystalbull stock market timing model and our indicator for the short term general market direction this model is trained on the s p500 index and has been in development since 2006 note this is a contrarian indicator it sells red into strength and buys green on weakness charts historical daily intraday alerts recent the crystalbull macroeconomic indicator this is our indicator of the broad macroeconomic outlook taking into account many current economic conditions this model is updated monthly with the intention of avoiding long secular bear markets note this is a fuel indicator it exits red on weakness and enters green on strength charts historical monthly alerts recent subscriber access only login subscribe non subscribers can access recent chart historical chart historical chart document getelementbyid matadorgaugelg innerhtml subscriber access only login subscribe non subscribers can access recent chart historical chart document getelementbyid tradinggaugelg innerhtml subscriber access only login subscribe non subscribers can access recent chart historical chart document getelementbyid macrogaugelg innerhtml subscriber access only login subscribe non subscribers can access historical chart document getelementbyid trendgaugelg innerhtml subscriber access only login subscribe non subscribers can access historical chart document getelementbyid vixen_alerts innerhtml available to subscribers only document getelementbyid matador_alerts innerhtml available to subscribers only document getelementbyid trading_alerts innerhtml available to subscribers only document getelementbyid macro_alerts innerhtml available to subscribers only document getelementbyid trend_alerts innerhtml available to subscribers only stock market indicators economic dashboard the crystalbull vixen is our most aggressive model trading the vix volatility index vix is very volatile making this strategy high risk with large drawdowns in backtesting the crystalbull vixen model yielded insane unbelievable results click the gauge to see its use in vix etf trading the crystalbull matador in our opinion this is our best stock market timing indicator after studying current economic data this is our best estimate for current short term market direction in backtesting the crystalbull matador has been very accurate in finding overbought or oversold conditions pivot or reversal points click the gauge to see its use in etf trading the crystalbull trading indicator this is our near term stock market timing indicator the crystalbull trading indicator has been quite accurate in finding near term overbought or oversold conditions click the gauge to see its use in timing the market the crystalbull macroeconomic indicator this is the best indicator of macroeconomic conditions that we have seen poor macroeconomic conditions coincide with secular bear markets and are best avoided by stock market investors click the gauge to analyze macroeconomics vs the stock market the crystalbull trend indicator this is our best indicator for the medium term stock market trend and is updated monthly this algorithm looks for market tops and bottoms to be established so may lag the exact market reversal points by a short period this market timing model is for long term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets click the gauge to see our current market trend chart the crystalbull calendar timing indicator is our more sophisticated version of the old sell in may and go away adage this model considers seasonal tax and retirement account payments along with the us presidential election cycle in structuring a stock market strategy this market timing model has been optimized using backtesting of time periods going back decades we do not place great trust in this model in timing the market going forward the crystalbull put call ratio strategies indicator seeks to find overbought and oversold conditions based on trader sentiment a high put call ratio indicates a bearish mood among traders which is a bullish indicator and vice versa thus this is a contrarian market timing indicator which is a requirement of the buy low sell high objective the crystalbull volatility indicator is another contrarian market indicator measuring investor sentiment a high volatility index vix signals higher premiums for stock options which usually occurs after a market selloff this timing method seeks out unsustainable changes in option premiums as a stock market strategy the relative strength index is an older rather simplistic method of determining rapid market movements this algorithm measures stock price changes over the last 14 trading days and determines a pattern this market timing system does find many unsustainable reversal points but misses some major moves thus its accuracy has diminished in recent years the macd technical indicator macd moving average convergence divergence measures recent price trends and attempts to time the market by projecting current trends this market timing method may miss major moves but may be suited for long term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets click the gauge to see our current macd chart real gdp is the primary most important measurement of the us economy however since the gdp data are released well after the sampling periods and revised for months in the future real gdp is difficult to use in a stock market strategy it is a coincident indicator at best and not a stock market investment alert click this meter to view real gdp and the stock market personal income is a widely followed data set for market timers rising personal incomes yield more consumer spending as well as more cash inflows into the stock market because these data releases lag their sampling periods and are revised for many months they are difficult to use to time the stock market new jobs data releases are highly anticipated and tend to move the stock market greatly market timers use this data to judge general strength and weakness of the us economy to predict business conditions going forward new job creation stalls during recessions and can be a stock market indicator thus this may be a coincidental data series but many investors use the new jobs number as a stock market signal job openings may be a leading indicator to new jobs data job openings stall before recessions and may be a leading stock market indicator click the gauge to compare job openings vs the s p 500 hourly weekly earnings measures the strength and weakness of the us economy as well as inflationary wage pressure personal income data is composited across the entire population while hourly and weekly earnings measure just the income of employees this is an important distinction and both are needed to judge the economy and stock market potential unemployment is the crucial measurement of the us economy economic growth requires high employment levels and the stock market rises and falls based on economic growth thus some market timers use the unemployment release as a buy signal or sell signal note the relationship between unemployment recessions and the market on this unemployment effects on the stock market chart consumer sentiment is considered by many to predict the near term strength in retail and consumer goods stocks a trading system which buys stocks during periods of high consumer sentiment levels and sells stocks when levels are lower is considered consumer sentiment does react to stock market conditions however so at times this is a lagging indicator retail sales durable goods is a data set closely followed by many stock traders and can move the market quickly on release dates however as these data measure sales conditions in the past this may be a lagging indicator for market timers it is still an interesting study business inventories sales are important measurements of current retail economic trends retail businesses usually attempt to keep inventories lower to save costs rising inventories usually signal that sales have come in lower than expected which is a bearish sign and may be a leading indicator of a downward trend in retail stocks fed funds prime rate interest rates are a key indicator of the current state of the economy the federal funds rate and prime rate are base lines for interest rates borrowers must pay to expand their businesses high rates slow borrowing and expansion and vice versa 3 month cd rate is a close proxy for current money market rates which determines the short term income an investor receives while his or her investable funds are not invested in the market higher safe returns are competition for investable dollars and must be considered in predicting cash flows into or out of the market low rates can signal excess cash on the sidelines and spur stock market investments us treasuries treasury notes and bonds are safe competitive investments vis a vis the stock market a comparison of treasury rates versus the inverse of the price to earnings ratio is a popular market timing method for predicting the forthcoming trend high treasury rates are bearish and vice versa click the gauge to compare us treasuries to the s p 500 the yield curve here is defined as the difference between the 30 year treasury bond and 3 month treasury bill rates a negative inverted yield curve where long term rates are higher than short term rates shows an economic instability where investors fear recessionary times ahead yield curve studies have been effective in stock market timing systems click the gauge to see the correlation between the yield curve and recessions the tso spread tbill sterling overnight spread is the difference between the sonia sterling overnight index average rate and the three month t bill interest rate a high tso spread indicates higher perceived risk in lending as interbank rates rise against risk free treasury rates and is generally a bearish signal a leading indicator in stock market timing studies click the gauge to view the tso spread correlation to the stock market mortgage rates are obvious candidates for study as the housing market accounts for roughly 5 of gdp rates typically respond to market conditions however so are usually a lagging stock market indicator recent manipulation by the federal reserve has distorted the study for decades to come money supply monetary base m0 m1 m2 m3 changes by the federal reserve are one of the most important causes of economic trend reversals many argue that all booms busts bubbles and crashes are caused by federal reserve money supply manipulation vis a vis the free market the stock market is dependent on economic trends so monetary supply is an important parameter in stock market systems click to correlate money supply to the stock market real pce personal consumption expenditures measures consumer spending in real inflation adjusted dollars so is valuable in gdp studies and retail and consumer goods stock analysis high pce can also indicate higher demand push inflationary times ahead so can be a leading input expected inflation measures the 10 year treasury rate vs tips treasury inflation protected securities since both trade on the open market this is a good measurement of inflation rates investors are anticipating going forward lower expected inflation generally indicates bearish sentiment consumer price index cpi measures inflation at the consumer level inflation is a distortion in price measurements over time and must be accounted for in stock market and economic studies and stock timing producer price index ppi measures inflation at the manufacturer level and is driven primarily by commodity material transportation and wage prices rising manufacturing costs can cut into corporate profits and reduce consumer spending in real terms so is important to measure in investment studies spot oil price is an important component of both consumer and producer costs and can be a leading indictor in measurements of inflation rising energy costs act like a tax on consumers and can lead to reduced sales spending and economic growth oil prices can be a leading indicator of the stock market click to compare oil prices to the stock market capacity utilization measures the percentage of current manufacturing output versus output at full capacity as capacity utilization approaches 100 manufacturers will need to expand facilities and may face additional costs and or inflationary pressures a low capacity utilization signifies slow growth or recessionary times click this meter to view capacity utilization history industrial production measures output from the us manufacturing base high production signifies a strong vibrant economy and can stimulate a bullish stock market productivity measures the efficiency output vs labor costs of manufacturing output in the us high productivity means manufacturers are getting more output from their workers and is a bullish signal for the manufacturing sector it can also result from recent layoffs so care is needed in its use unit labor costs highlight inflationary wage pressures at the manufacturer level per unit of output higher labor costs can lead to lower corporate profits which can be bearish to manufacturing stocks click to view the recent history in our unit labor costs chart us home sales is a valuable data set to follow in determining the general strength or weakness of the us economy...

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