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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2018;
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y unrealistic assumption to make building econometric models from that kind of simplistic and unrealistic assumptions risk producing nothing but spurious correlations and causalities real world economies are organic systems for which the statistical methods used in econometrics are ill suited or even strictly seen inapplicable mechanical probabilistic models have little leverage when applied to non atomic evolving organic systems such as economies building econometric models can t be a goal in itself good econometric models are means that make it possible for us to infer things about the real world systems they represent if we can t show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our econometric models are exportable to the real world they are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real world economic systems 6 linearity to make his models tractable tinbergen assumes the relationships between the variables he study to be linear this is still standard procedure today but as keynes writes it is a very drastic and usually improbable postulate to suppose that all economic forces are of this character producing independent changes in the phenomenon under investigation which are directly proportional to the changes in themselves indeed it is ridiculous to keynes it was a fallacy of reification to assume that all quantities are additive an assumption closely linked to independence and linearity the unpopularity of the principle of organic unities shows very clearly how great is the danger of the assumption of unproved additive formulas the fallacy of which ignorance of organic unity is a particular instance may perhaps be mathematically represented thus suppose f x is the goodness of x and f y is the goodness of y it is then assumed that the goodness of x and y together is f x f y when it is clearly f x y and only in special cases will it be true that f x y f x f y it is plain that it is never legitimate to assume this property in the case of any given function without proof j m keynes ethics in relation to conduct 1903 real world social systems are usually not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms and variables and the relationship between them being linear additive homogenous stable invariant and atomistic but when causal mechanisms operate in the real world they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts since statisticians and econometricians have not been able to convincingly warrant their assumptions of homogeneity stability invariance independence additivity as being ontologically isomorphic to real world economic systems keynes critique is still valid in his critique of tinbergen keynes points us to the fundamental logical epistemological and ontological problems of applying statistical methods to a basically unpredictable uncertain complex unstable interdependent and ever changing social reality methods designed to analyse repeated sampling in controlled experiments under fixed conditions are not easily extended to an organic and non atomistic world where time and history play decisive roles econometric modelling should never be a substitute for thinking from that perspective it is really depressing to see how much of keynes critique of the pioneering econometrics in the 1930s 1940s is still relevant today the general line you take is interesting and useful it is of course not exactly comparable with mine i was raising the logical difficulties you say in effect that if one was to take these seriously one would give up the ghost in the first lap but that the method used judiciously as an aid to more theoretical enquiries and as a means of suggesting possibilities and probabilities rather than anything else taken with enough grains of salt and applied with superlative common sense won t do much harm i should quite agree with that that is how the method ought to be used keynes letter to e j broster december 19 1939 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky programmet som gör det värt att betala varenda krona i radio och tv avgiften 25 mar 2018 at 17 18 posted in varia 3 comments i dessa tider när ljudrummet dränks i den kommersiella radions tyckmyckentrutade ordbajseri och fullständigt intetsägande pubertalflamsande tjafs har man nästan gett upp men det finns ljus i mörkret i programmet text och musik med eric schüldt som sänds på söndagsförmiddagarna i p2 mellan klockan 11 och 12 kan man lyssna på seriös musik och en programledare som har något att säga och inte bara låter foderluckan glappa en lisa för själen i dagens program kunde man bland annat höra detta oändligt vackra stycke musik tack eric för ett fantastiskt program som bara det är värt varenda krona som läggs på radio och tv avgiften rational choice history a case of models not fitting the facts 24 mar 2018 at 17 01 posted in economics 6 comments rational choice history is in a worse situation than that of either mechanistic biology in the seventeenth century or of sociobiology today the analogy would be appropriate if it were mainly a question of refining the theories and of gathering more evidence one could refine theory by incorporating bounded rationality and quasi rational choice so as to match more closely the way in which actual decisions are made one could gather more evidence by paying careful attention to sources that illuminate the beliefs and goals of the actors the need for modesty appears in two ways first as i have been at some pain to emphasize one should avoid the postulate of hyperrationality collective action iterated games and credibility are simple ideas that can be and have been refined to yield rococo or baroque constructions that no longer bear any relation to observable behavior to be useful they have to be constrained by what we know about the limitations of the human mind second because formal analysis has nothing to say about the motivation of the agents it cannot by itself yield robust predictions although it is extremely useful to know that the structure of material interests in a given case is that of a one shot prisoner s dilemma that fact does not by itself imply anything about what the agents will do if they have nonmaterial or even nonrational motivations they might behave very differently from the noncooperative behavior we would expect if they were exclusively swayed by material interests if they are in fact observed to cooperate then we will have to search for nonmaterial or nonrational motivations rational choice theory tells us what to look for not what we will find jon elster share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky parce mihi domine 24 mar 2018 at 09 55 posted in varia comments off on parce mihi domine national security adviser john bolton a bullying madman 24 mar 2018 at 09 19 posted in politics society comments off on national security adviser john bolton a bullying madman john r bolton chosen by president trump to be his new national security adviser does not need the senate s endorsement to succeed h r mcmaster in the job but in 2005 the extraordinary refusal to confirm his nomination to be president george w bush s ambassador to the united nations by a republican controlled committee is worth revisiting for what it revealed about mr bolton and what it may portend for our national security one moment singularly derailed his nomination testifying before the usually staid senate foreign relations committee in april 2005 carl w ford jr the former assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research called mr bolton a kiss up kick down sort of guy and a serial abuser of people beneath him in the chain of command mr ford a self described conservative republican and bush supporter made vivid an emerging portrait of mr bolton as a bully who repeatedly sought retribution against career intelligence analysts with the temerity to contradict him other witnesses came forward to allege abusive behavior by mr bolton during his time as a lawyer in the private sector screaming threatening throwing documents and in the words of one woman genuinely behaving like a madman antony blinken new york times how to interpret and use regression analysis 23 mar 2018 at 19 06 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to interpret and use regression analysis after having mastered all the technicalities of regression analysis and econometrics students often feel as though they are the masters of the universe i usually cool them down with a required reading of christopher achen s modern classic interpreting and using regression it usually gets them back on track again and they understand that no increase in methodological sophistication alter the fundamental nature of the subject it remains a wondrous mixture of rigorous theory experienced judgment and inspired guesswork and that finally is its charm and in case they get too excited about having learned to master the intricacies of proper significance tests and p values i ask them to also ponder on achen s warning significance testing as a search for specification errors substitutes calculations for substantive thinking worse it channels energy toward the hopeless search for functionally correct specifications and diverts attention from the real tasks which are to formulate a manageable description of the data and to exclude competing ones what do economic models explain 22 mar 2018 at 19 55 posted in economics 5 comments in my view scientific theories are not to be considered true or false in constructing such a theory we are not trying to get at the truth or even to approximate to it rather we are trying to organize our thoughts and observations in a useful manner robert aumann what nobel prize winning economist robert aumann and other mainstream economics defenders of scientific storytelling forget is that potential explanatory power achieved in thought experimental models is not enough for attaining real explanations model explanations are at best conjectures and whether they do or do not explain things in the real world is something we have to test to just believe that you understand or explain things better with thought experiments is not enough without a warranted export certificate to the real world model explanations are pretty worthless proving things in models is not enough especially not since we all know that almost all models massively misrepresent their real world targets in many ways and have lots of outcomes that never occur in real life although the models usually incorporate familiar sounding entities like rational actors and firms these entities are nothing but idealized entities with tractability characteristics with the sole goal of making mathematical logical deductions possible finding vague similarities or establishing flimsy analogies between the model world and the real world is not much of an explanation especially not when the never questioned core model assumptions are not even remotely reasonably realistic analyzing real world cooperation with game theoretical models built on e g assumptions of common knowledge and belief alignment does not explain anything at all since we know these restrictive assumptions are blatantly false of the cooperation phenomenon and that the result of the analysis depends heavily on these assumptions and what is perhaps even worse those outer worldly assumptions cannot be relaxed without vastly changing the results the models bring about and so underlining the exceedingly weak real world applicability of this kind of rational choice models using models building on that kind of assumptions is not credible it is useless from both an epistemic and ontological point of view mainstream economists often defend their as if modelling practice with the argument that truth is not an essential element in economics but that is not a tenable attitude if one at the same time argue that these models have anything to say about causality to be able to give a causal account of something the account has to be true you have to really show that effect e was brought about by cause c an increase in wages could be a cause of higher consumption but unless it really is increased it does not explain higher consumption my newly planted lemon tree is sick the leaves yellow and dropping off i finally explain this by saying that water has accumulated in the base of the planter the water is the cause of the disease i drill a hole in the base of the oak barrel where the lemon tree lives and foul water flows out that was the cause before i had drilled the hole i could still give the explanation and to give that explanation was to present the supposed cause the water there must be such water for the explanation to be correct an explanation of an effect by a cause has an existential component not just an optional extra ingredient describing credible as if worlds in thought experimental models is not equivalent to giving genuine explanations to think that is actually to ignore the real problem even though most mainstream economists think that their models are credible that in no way constitutes a warrant or reason for considering them explanatory in any substantive way why simply because as argued more extensively in my on the use and misuse of theories and models in mainstream economics genuine explanation requires truth models building on non existent things like common knowledge and belief alignment have no explanatory warrant whatsoever so if you are seeking genuine explanations of what happens in real world economies you can take your books on general equilibrium growth theory game theory rational choice theory mankiw textbooks new classical keynesian macroeconomics models and put them all in the dustbin if you are going for genuine explanations you simply have to look elsewhere next page recent posts arbetslöshetsiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will 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