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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during April 2022;
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opens in new window bluesky statistical inference and sampling assumptions 28 apr 2022 at 12 55 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on statistical inference and sampling assumptions real probability samples have two great benefits i they allow unbiased extrapolation from the sample ii with data internal to the sample it is possible to estimate how much results are likely to change if another sample is taken these benefits of course have a price drawing probability samples is hard work an investigator who assumes that a convenience sample is like a random sample seeks to obtain the benefits without the costs just on the basis of assumptions if scrutinized few convenience samples would pass muster as the equivalent of probability samples indeed probability sampling is a technique whose use is justified because it is so unlikely that social processes will generate representative samples decades of survey research have demonstrated that when a probability sample is desired probability sampling must be done assumptions do not suffice hence our first recommendation for research practice whenever possible use probability sampling if the data generation mechanism is unexamined statistical inference with convenience samples risks substantial error bias is to be expected and independence is problematic when independence is lacking the p values produced by conventional formulas can be grossly misleading in general we think that reported p values will be too small in the social world proximity seems to breed similarity thus many research results are held to be statistically significant when they are the mere product of chance variation richard berk david freedman in econometrics one often gets the feeling that many of its practitioners think of it as a kind of automatic inferential machine input data and out comes casual knowledge this is like pulling a rabbit from a hat great but first you have to put the rabbit in the hat and this is where assumptions come into the picture the assumption of imaginary super populations is one of many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics and statistical analyses to handle uncertainty as social scientists and economists we have to confront the all important question of how to handle uncertainty and randomness should we define randomness with probability if we do we have to accept that to speak of randomness we also have to presuppose the existence of nomological probability machines since probabilities cannot be spoken of and actually to be strict do not at all exist without specifying such system contexts accepting a domain of probability theory and sample space of infinite populations also implies that judgments are made on the basis of observations that are actually never made infinitely repeated trials or samplings never take place in the real world so that cannot be a sound inductive basis for a science with aspirations of explaining real world socio economic processes structures or events it s not tenable and as if this wasn t enough one could as we ve seen also seriously wonder what kind of populations these statistical and econometric models ultimately are based on why should we as social scientists and not as pure mathematicians working with formal axiomatic systems without the urge to confront our models with real target systems unquestioningly accept models based on concepts like the infinite super populations used in e g the potential outcome framework that has become so popular lately in social sciences one could of course treat observational or experimental data as random samples from real populations i have no problem with that although it has to be noted that most natural experiments are not based on random sampling from some underlying population which of course means that the effect estimators strictly seen only are unbiased for the specific groups studied but probabilistic econometrics does not content itself with that kind of populations instead it creates imaginary populations of parallel universes and assume that our data are random samples from that kind of infinite super populations but this is actually nothing else but hand waving and it is inadequate for real science as david freedman writes with this approach the investigator does not explicitly define a population that could in principle be studied with unlimited resources of time and money the investigator merely assumes that such a population exists in some ill defined sense and there is a further assumption that the data set being analyzed can be treated as if it were based on a random sample from the assumed population these are convenient fictions nevertheless reliance on imaginary populations is widespread indeed regression models are commonly used to analyze convenience samples the rhetoric of imaginary populations is seductive because it seems to free the investigator from the necessity of understanding how data were generated in social sciences including economics it s always wise to ponder c s peirce s remark that universes are not as common as peanuts share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky papa was a rollin stone 27 apr 2022 at 23 51 posted in varia comments off on papa was a rollin stone share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky nils frahm some 27 apr 2022 at 23 22 posted in varia comments off on nils frahm some share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky fisher s exact test student stuff 27 apr 2022 at 08 44 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on fisher s exact test student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky on mathematics and economics 26 apr 2022 at 17 12 posted in economics comments off on on mathematics and economics studying mathematics and logic is interesting and fun it sharpens the mind but economics is not pure mathematics or logic it s about society the real world forgetting that economics becomes nothing but an irrelevant and uninteresting glasperlenspiel or as knut wicksell put it already a century ago one must of course beware of expecting from this method more than it can give out of the crucible of calculation comes not an atom more truth than was put in the assumptions being hypothetical the results obviously cannot claim more than a very limited validity the mathematical expression ought to facilitate the argument clarify the results and so guard against possible faults of reasoning that is all it is by the way evident that the economic aspects must be the determining ones everywhere economic truth must never be sacrificed to the desire for mathematical elegance share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky il vortice della mondanità 24 apr 2022 at 11 01 posted in varia comments off on il vortice della mondanità a movie as large as life itself share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky marine le pen sherlock holmes of the century 23 apr 2022 at 16 51 posted in politics society comments off on marine le pen sherlock holmes of the century guess there are a couple of things that lady ought to be informed about when it comes to russian elections share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky so arm ist putin wirklich 23 apr 2022 at 12 12 posted in politics society comments off on so arm ist putin wirklich share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky significance testing and the real tasks of social science 21 apr 2022 at 11 36 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments after having mastered all the technicalities of regression analysis and econometrics students often feel as though they are masters of the universe i usually cool them down with the required reading of christopher achen s modern classic interpreting and using regression it usually gets them back on track again and they understand that no increase in methodological sophistication alter the fundamental nature of the subject it remains a wondrous mixture of rigorous theory experienced judgment and inspired guesswork and that finally is its charm and in case they get too excited about having learned to master the intricacies of proper significance tests and p values i ask them to also ponder on achen s apt warning significance testing as a search for specification errors substitutes calculations for substantive thinking worse it channels energy toward the hopeless search for functionally correct specifications and diverts attention from the real tasks which are to formulate a manageable description of the data and to exclude competing ones share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky sverige behöver en hållbar riksbankslag 21 apr 2022 at 10 37 posted in politics society comments off on sverige behöver en hållbar riksbankslag ett lands centralbank har makten att skapa pengar och styra hur dessa används det gör riksbanken till en avgörande institution för sveriges möjligheter till hållbar omställning ska denna makt kunna användas på ett konstruktivt sätt måste riksbankens mål och verktygslåda uppdateras annars finns risk att penningpolitiken fortsätter på den tidigare kritiserade banan där låg ränta och kvantitativa lättnader blåst upp bubblor på börsen och bostadsmarknaden vilket ökat de ekonomiska klyftorna skapat zombieföretag och gynnat fossila företag därför är det positivt att regeringen tagit initiativ till en ny riksbankslag som kommer behandlas nu den 21 april av konstitutionsutskottet och den 1 juni av riksdagen förslaget har dock missat att ta intryck av den diskussion som pågår världen över om hur centralbanker kan bidra till ekologiskt ekonomiskt och socialt hållbara samhällen över 80 centralbanker och tillsynsmyndigheter har inom samarbetet network of central banks and supervisors for greening the financial system ngfs tagit fram en rapport med nio kraftfulla åtgärder en centralbank kan vidta om den politiska viljan finns men här i sverige väljer regeringen istället att lägga fram ett lagförslag med ett antal brister det är positivt att regeringen tagit initiativ till en översyn och uppdatering av riksbankslagen riksbankens uppdrag och befogenheter behöver vara tydligt definierade ändamålsenliga och demokratiskt förankrade men i ljuset av den pågående klimatkrisen lärdomarna från coronakrisen och de stora förändringar som pågår just nu på betal och finansmarknaderna så är förslaget redan utdaterat lagen riskerar att bakbinda riksbankens handlingsutrymme till gårdagens kritiserade penningpolitiska verktygslåda vilket sannolikt kommer göra större skada än nytta lagen lever inte upp till rimliga krav för en modern och hållbar centralbank den skapar inte ens tydligt utrymme för att använda merparten av de gröna verktyg riksbanken själva har varit med och identifierat inom ngfs samarbetet vi kan bättre än så tänk om och tänk rätt isadora wronski jonas bane lars p syll samuel färdow kazen sasja beslik share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky adorno in 60 minuten 19 apr 2022 at 14 47 posted in politics society comments off on adorno in 60 minuten share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the main insight of mmt 19 apr 2022 at 11 05 posted in economics 44 comments mmt is first and foremost a balance sheet approach to macroeconomics at its very core lie reserve accounting then deposit accounting and then sectoral balances accounting there is very little behaviour in any of this equilibrium rules as all balances balance in both flows and stocks and there are no assumptions apart from the existence of a central bank a treasury a banking system and some households and firms mmt can only be learned by mastering its balance sheet approach it can only be engaged by discussing the balance sheet operations it puts forward it is here where value is added first of all the main insight of mmt is that the mainstream has the sequence wrong whereas they assume that government expenditure is financed by taxes mmt assumes that government spending is financed by money creation mmt stresses that the central bank empowered by the law and serving the state is the monopoly issuer of currency this logically means that the state has to spend before taxes can be paid when taxpayers pay their taxes or banks buy government bonds on the primary market they first need to have state money dirk ehnts fiscal deficits always lead to an increase in the supply of financial assets held in the nongovernmental sector of the economy this real world fact of course constitutes a huge problem for mainstream textbook macroeconomic theory with its models building on money multipliers and loanable funds the loanable funds theory is in many regards nothing but an approach where the ruling rate of interest in society is pure and simple conceived as nothing else than the price of loans or credit determined by supply and demand as bertil ohlin put it in the same way as the price of eggs and strawberries on a village market in the traditional loanable funds theory as presented in mainstream macroeconomics textbooks the amount of loans and credit available for financing investment is constrained by how much saving is available saving is the supply of loanable funds investment is the demand for loanable funds and assumed to be negatively related to the interest rate as argued by kelton there are many problems with the standard presentation and formalization of the loanable funds theory and more can be added to the list 1 as already noticed by james meade decades ago the causal story told to explicate the accounting identities used gives the picture of a dog called saving wagged its tail labelled investment in keynes s view and later over and over again confirmed by empirical research it s not so much the interest rate at which firms can borrow that causally determines the amount of investment undertaken but rather their internal funds profit expectations and capacity utilization 2 as is typical of most mainstream macroeconomic formalizations and models there is pretty little mention of real world phenomena like e g real money credit rationing and the existence of multiple interest rates in the loanable funds theory loanable funds theory essentially reduces modern monetary economies to something akin to barter systems something they definitely a...
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