Meta tags:
description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during February 2026;
Headings (most frequently used words):
the, why, of, recent, comments, lars, syll, katalys, nya, chefsekonom, table, fallacy, conflating, prediction, and, causation, minsky, still, matters, trump, tariffs, laughing, matter, vienna, song, für, friedrich, merz, kritiken, av, svantesson, totalt, missriktad, are, ceos, paid, so, much, finanspolitiska, rådet, drar, helt, fel, slutsats, dangers, insufficiently, deep, explanations, ivory, coast, how, to, make, full, employment, compatible, with, fiscal, stability, causal, inference, in, presence, heterogeneity, econometrics, second, best, explanatory, practice, we, all, care, about, inequality, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (356), and (164), that (103), att (85), och (74), not (71), are (60), det (52), share (47), new (47), opens (45), window (45), with (44), for (44), som (38), this (35), have (33), feb (31), inte (31), ett (31), för (31), bluesky (30), facebook (30), may (28), they (28), #causal (28), den (27), can (27), 2026 (23), more (23), independent (21), effect (21), than (20), financial (20), med (20), till (20), jan (19), economic (19), one (19), when (19), comments (18), other (18), what (18), income (18), between (18), but (17), about (17), variables (17), from (17), has (17), mar (16), apr (16), jun (16), posted (16), men (16), kan (16), jul (15), aug (15), sep (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), school (15), har (15), 2021 (14), 2023 (14), theory (14), arbetslöshet (14), will (14), full (14), would (14), their (14), effects (14), pupils (14), wealth (14), 2025 (13), economics (13), often (13), without (13), sweden (13), debt (13), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), 2016 (12), 2017 (12), 2018 (12), 2019 (12), 2020 (12), 2022 (12), 2024 (12), econometrics (12), education (12), off (12), problem (12), there (12), vara (12), sig (12), lars (11), lönebildning (11), does (11), those (11), because (11), example (11), all (11), variable (11), problems (11), schools (11), finanspolitiska (11), måste (11), man (11), crises (11), 2011 (10), how (10), inequality (10), some (10), why (10), control (10), based (10), which (10), even (10), natural (10), eller (10), när (10), society (9), better (9), should (9), also (9), fact (9), analysis (9), over (9), however (9), factors (9), where (9), risks (9), economy (9), market (9), time (8), only (8), policy (8), ekonomiska (8), many (8), who (8), means (8), variation (8), these (8), question (8), regression (8), into (8), heterogeneity (8), detta (8), report (7), like (7), sverige (7), most (7), group (7), different (7), while (7), such (7), statistical (7), mainstream (7), causes (7), knowledge (7), use (7), explanatory (7), whether (7), requires (7), then (7), system (7), result (7), relationship (7), crisis (7), its (7), underlying (7), assets (7), rådet (7), comment (6), account (6), statistics (6), arbetslösheten (6), model (6), research (6), rather (6), themselves (6), social (6), given (6), economists (6), each (6), 000 (6), keynes (6), second (6), must (6), information (6), difficult (6), out (6), truly (6), randomised (6), experiments (6), sometimes (6), know (6), long (6), again (6), our (6), parents (6), among (6), high (6), both (6), public (6), was (6), through (6), distribution (6), ska (6), finanspolitik (6), ekonomin (6), sysselsättning (6), mål (6), investeringar (6), inget (6), vienna (6), minsky (6), already (5), now (5), arbetslöshetssiffran (5), styr (5), recent (5), first (5), feldstein (5), been (5), thus (5), them (5), just (5), suppose (5), reasons (5), relevant (5), methods (5), answer (5), empirical (5), another (5), measure (5), real (5), way (5), background (5), choice (5), situation (5), could (5), swedish (5), approach (5), instability (5), yours (5), employment (5), stability (5), fiscal (5), unequal (5), demand (5), risk (5), ramverk (5), mycket (5), politik (5), ramverket (5), sin (5), minska (5), regeringar (5), generationer (5), staten (5), uppnå (5), skulden (5), eftersom (5), utan (5), since (5), future (5), earnings (5), syll (4), varia (4), politics (4), fred (4), especially (4), being (4), same (4), statsskulden (4), feel (4), worse (4), always (4), hold (4), own (4), let (4), still (4), away (4), much (4), care (4), itself (4), processes (4), causation (4), instruments (4), possible (4), best (4), basic (4), very (4), things (4), controlling (4), conclusion (4), constant (4), taken (4), power (4), levels (4), here (4), relationships (4), become (4), important (4), studies (4), precisely (4), reality (4), therefore (4), make (4), method (4), economist (4), significant (4), able (4), complete (4), results (4), municipal (4), socio (4), status (4), need (4), recurring (4), misleading (4), had (4), estimated (4), lies (4), completely (4), higher (4), clear (4), associated (4), issues (4), households (4), marginal (4), total (4), questions (4), assumptions (4), markets (4), också (4), minst (4), fel (4), grunden (4), finanspolitiken (4), ökad (4), bra (4), oss (4), hålla (4), bnp (4), väl (4), dem (4), sätt (4), bara (4), två (4), skuld (4), skulle (4), pengar (4), säger (4), helt (4), slut (4), concentration (4), direct (4), according (4), year (4), history (4), damberg (4), expectations (4), borrowers (4), stochastic (4), fallacy (4), table (4), occupation (4), science (3), list (3), nothing (3), politiken (3), merely (3), people (3), values (3), hence (3), large (3), well (3), were (3), united (3), states (3), his (3), conclusions (3), greater (3), yet (3), might (3), upon (3), reason (3), less (3), behind (3), part (3), never (3), relations (3), explanations (3), deep (3), matter (3), practice (3), explain (3), usually (3), ask (3), ourselves (3), really (3), draw (3), forces (3), provide (3), dependent (3), theoretical (3), modern (3), any (3), far (3), kind (3), squared (3), find (3), ability (3), graph (3), traditional (3), under (3), regarding (3), population (3), random (3), give (3), consequences (3), look (3), institutions (3), exogenous (3), john (3), maynard (3), further (3), terms (3), addition (3), attended (3), obviously (3), unobservable (3), assume (3), experiment (3), exists (3), affects (3), selection (3), mechanism (3), cannot (3), end (3), logic (3), role (3), estimates (3), mechanisms (3), immigrant (3), take (3), functional (3), necessarily (3), mean (3), differences (3), years (3), etc (3), presence (3), degree (3), issue (3), several (3), models (3), inference (3), budget (3), macroeconomic (3), outcomes (3), policies (3), abba (3), lerner (3), state (3), deficits (3), though (3), interest (3), largely (3), equal (3), reducing (3), consume (3), top (3), overall (3), credit (3), central (3), estimate (3), events (3), självklart (3), rådets (3), borde (3), länge (3), sedan (3), sagt (3), vår (3), faktum (3), regelverk (3), varit (3), skapa (3), mer (3), rapport (3), mot (3), hur (3), regeringen (3), framtida (3), ökade (3), kommande (3), innebär (3), balansmål (3), idag (3), budgetunderskott (3), procent (3), även (3), offentlig (3), använda (3), vill (3), var (3), bör (3), sina (3), makroekonomiska (3), prisstabilitet (3), stora (3), statsskuld (3), denna (3), börda (3), rätt (3), skatter (3), räntan (3), sparande (3), oxfam (3), extreme (3), deliberate (3), tax (3), systematically (3), world (3), poverty (3), productivity (3), safety (3), coefficient (3), balance (3), normal (3), borrower (3), banks (3), required (2), log (2), sign (2), subscribed (2), subscribe (2), wordpress (2), com (2), subscribers (2), blog (2), wiklund (2), milch (2), follow (2), ones (2), limited (2), randomisation (2), contributions (2), randomness (2), credible (2), credibility (2), problemet (2), lesson (2), precision (2), student (2), next (2), illustrate (2), received (2), cents (2), justice (2), hurt (2), compare (2), receive (2), goods (2), services (2), tangible (2), worth (2), difference (2), viewed (2), wrong (2), bit (2), fairy (2), gives (2), participants (2), welfare (2), refuse (2), quarter (2), others (2), throw (2), members (2), reveal (2), say (2), obtaining (2), tend (2), subject (2), argued (2), book (2), primarily (2), stanley (2), lieberson (2), randomly (2), determined (2), controlled (2), making (2), econometric (2), genuine (2), confounders (2), identifying (2), simple (2), observed (2), understanding (2), event (2), context (2), certain (2), place (2), absence (2), fundamentally (2), considering (2), impact (2), kincaid (2), self (2), evident (2), variances (2), shows (2), measures (2), influence (2), variance (2), instead (2), sample (2), useful (2), causality (2), criticism (2), comes (2), evaluating (2), definitely (2), assumed (2), directly (2), touched (2), included (2), treated (2), rise (2), outcome (2), extent (2), turn (2), impossible (2), perceived (2), right (2), having (2), correct (2), three (2), enough (2), factor (2), quantitative (2), applicable (2), neither (2), discovery (2), nor (2), familiar (2), called (2), attending (2), her (2), she (2), confounder (2), via (2), work (2), affect (2), children (2), choose (2), attend (2), once (2), affected (2), type (2), ideal (2), distributed (2), before (2), help (2), active (2), try (2), common (2), analyses (2), beyond (2), educational (2), within (2), category (2), perhaps (2), immeasurable (2), perform (2), play (2), significantly (2), groups (2), focus (2), respects (2), connected (2), ethnicity (2), comparison (2), term (2), homogeneity (2), becomes (2), researchers (2), lead (2), pearl (2), mostly (2), tool (2), graphs (2), additivity (2), interaction (2), solve (2), necessary (2), balanced (2), austerity (2), unemployment (2), price (2), capacity (2), prices (2), borrowing (2), invested (2), government (2), bonds (2), payments (2), pay (2), taxes (2), net (2), reduce (2), run (2), spending (2), progressive (2), taxation (2), collective (2), bargaining (2), asset (2), lower (2), propensity (2), source (2), compatible (2), weakens (2), household (2), major (2), larger (2), consumption (2), reliance (2), aggregate (2), post (2), keynesian (2), wealthy (2), hands (2), spent (2), ivory (2), coast (2), treatment (2), works (2), deeper (2), frequently (2), identification (2), design (2), course (2), essential (2), reaching (2), rosenzweig (2), wolpin (2), number (2), needed (2), small (2), dangers (2), insufficiently (2), vårt (2), land (2), tanke (2), oavsett (2), överens (2), nuvarande (2), öppna (2), går (2), alltid (2), förfelat (2), principer (2), snarare (2), finansminister (2), själv (2), låna (2), framför (2), kritik (2), vilket (2), leda (2), drar (2), missriktad (2), sunda (2), statsfinanser (2), instabila (2), priser (2), överges (2), kristider (2), mellan (2), efterfrågestimulerande (2), infrastruktur (2), sikt (2), ekonomi (2), utgiftstak (2), kommer (2), onödan (2), förändras (2), redan (2), talet (2), underskott (2), ansvarsfull (2), tillbaka (2), fart (2), läge (2), dagens (2), perspektiv (2), kanske (2), fungerar (2), behöver (2), vid (2), balans (2), målen (2), mindre (2), där (2), står (2), kvar (2), enligt (2), runt (2), ligga (2), hög (2), allt (2), både (2), andra (2), varken (2), dålig (2), övergripande (2), vad (2), heligt (2), balanserad (2), medel (2), konsoliderade (2), maastrichtskulden (2), statsbudgeten (2), stället (2), värna (2), dock (2), genom (2), effekter (2), faktiskt (2), göra (2), våra (2), barn (2), barnbarn (2), betalar (2), argumentet (2), par (2), beror (2), infrastruktursatsningar (2), något (2), finansieras (2), samhället (2), håller (2), obligationer (2), ränta (2), medan (2), betala (2), balanserar (2), låg (2), politiskt (2), lag (2), ökar (2), privata (2), från (2), ingen (2), utgifter (2), valutor (2), eget (2), värde (2), silver (2), gör (2), blir (2), nya (2), ekonomisk (2), hade (2), ske (2), disproportionate (2), political (2), transparency (2), prevent (2), gap (2), consequence (2), decades (2), burdens (2), capital (2), actively (2), highest (2), ranks (2), country (2), perception (2), societies (2), evidence (2), individuals (2), 700 (2), unable (2), deprivation (2), combined (2), bottom (2), elite (2), trickle (2), down (2), feed (2), pass (2), trying (2), today (2), individual (2), little (2), ceos (2), times (2), paid (2), level (2), neoliberal (2), rich (2), 1980s (2), annat (2), hål (2), huvudet (2), daniel (2), suhonen (2), talar (2), möjliggöra (2), ännu (2), socialdemokraterna (2), kritiken (2), totalt (2), mikael (2), svantesson (2), pengarna (2), han (2), song (2), für (2), friedrich (2), merz (2), karlsbad (2), you (2), highly (2), ago (2), series (2), university (2), pleasure (2), studying (2), great (2), hyman (2), fundamental (2), debts (2), insignificant (2), regulations (2), minimise (2), speculation (2), leads (2), endogenous (2), created (2), distribute (2), coin (2), heads (2), tails (2), bubbles (2), securitisation (2), ratings (2), representative (2), sheets (2), liquidity (2), creates (2), during (2), upswing (2), phase (2), margins (2), structure (2), conditioning (2), indirect (2), occupational (2), conflating (2), prediction (2), katalys (2), website, name, email, write, loading, collapse, bar, manage, subscriptions, view, site, reader, content, privacy, join, 606, feeds, entries, 112, archives, 707, 542, methodology, 998, 391, 301, 168, categories, reading, fredtorssander, torssander, netiquette, anonymous, pseudo, argumentations, abusive, language, irrelevant, links, please, remember, professor, leaves, respond, reification, guarantee, nancy, cartwright, philosophy, representativeness, revolution, välförtjänt, bottenrekord, audioholic, summer, stein, paradox, unbiasedness, love, secret, finding, late, stuff, efter, studenten, personal, risksamhällets, konturer, posts, page, branko, milanovic, story, suggests, feeling, propriety, peers, acquire, recognition, expression, particularly, unjustified, unclear, slight, consider, martin, 1999, heeled, gathered, conference, journal, asks, apparently, modify, variously, previous, everybody, dare, suggest, quite, accept, leave, room, disgust, unfavorably, unfathomable, worthy, 1000th, amount, speculate, lie, extravagant, largesse, foundation, variations, brought, tie, actions, structures, detected, overly, enamoured, axiomatic, deductive, modelling, forget, accounting, bring, demands, acquaintance, intricate, contexts, fabric, seen, describing, patterns, associations, correlations, suggestions, forgetting, continue, stuck, treatise, probability, critique, strikes, heart, interprets, want, assigned, covariates, inferences, answering, moreover, questionable, wit, vital, least, working, hypothesis, causing, per, magnitude, accounts, almost, universal, criterion, forthcoming, undermined, assuming, explicit, justification, gain, amenable, supplies, count, harold, fare, explaining, influences, silent, similarly, size, varies, none, arbitrary, noncausal, epistemic, roles, measuring, despite, certainly, baby, bathwater, adopting, healthy, scepticism, caution, judging, concerning, establish, recommended, hubert, blalock, left, outside, actually, operate, produce, nonrandom, confounded, consideration, overlook, aspect, seldom, determines, something, observational, quasi, anywhere, near, rules, anticipated, thinking, multiple, correlation, essentially, depends, furnished, goes, vera, causa, discover, relative, importance, beforehand, indubitably, giving, qualitative, pupil, partly, schoolmates, similar, sense, benefits, environment, happen, elimination, unmeasurable, attributes, send, differ, function, fully, adequate, substitutes, assignment, academic, performance, introduction, probably, existing, simulation, proceed, causally, parts, reliably, simply, looks, unfortunately, confronted, overlooked, get, procedure, influencing, interested, simulate, resembles, match, comparable, hope, obtain, pure, catch, hidden, attitude, motivation, select, believe, debate, argument, segregation, access, mask, decisive, held, theorem, arise, creating, aware, support, compensatory, counteract, prejudices, presumed, teaching, mentioned, consequently, coincide, specification, appear, ethnic, backgrounds, differently, originate, instance, alternative, basis, begin, general, equivalent, lump, together, taking, pointless, politicians, asked, friskolor, charter, test, multitude, known, observable, housing, field, advocates, emphasise, advantages, flexibility, disadvantages, lack, clarity, characteristics, present, specified, create, judea, puts, forward, compelling, popular, theoretic, preferred, non, parametric, arrows, nodes, replace, specifications, equations, sacred, reduction, irrespective, sound, finances, budgets, worsening, climate, reconsidered, proponents, monetary, responsibility, promote, powers, accordingly, running, temporary, accumulating, inherently, good, bad, instrument, achieving, two, overarching, objectives, stable, fear, financed, domestically, foreign, benefit, productively, ultimately, finance, perspective, whole, burden, cancels, creditors, taxpayers, low, rates, generating, inflationary, pressure, discipline, permanent, stimulus, implication, objective, limit, accumulation, triggering, stagnation, cutting, deficient, deepens, durable, solution, strong, building, raise, strengthening, contrast, concentrated, maintain, output, lean, heavily, asymmetry, evenly, national, flows, structural, rises, reach, smaller, sustained, propensities, link, heterodox, sidelined, debates, extra, euro, poorer, richer, likely, saved, typically, delivers, decomposition, captures, specific, compliers, clarifying, distinct, pathways, operates, learn, limits, development, external, validity, separable, channels, remaining, superficial, complementary, unpack, quantify, analysed, using, instrumental, attractive, offer, recover, trials, infeasible, endogeneity, threatens, careful, planning, ultimate, meaningful, citizens, scholarly, community, cases, primary, scholars, construct, sufficiently, clever, generalise, broader, populations, shifts, attention, substantive, towards, methodological, refinement, sake, discuss, serious, notable, address, rely, strategies, formulate, ways, yield, exact, precise, answers, mark, kenneth, sufficient, eliminate, necessity, imposing, auxiliary, supplementary, measurement, valuable, ever, evidently, potential, strictly, experimental, relies, exclusively, constrained, provided, nature, preferences, technologies, prospect, granska, förs, frågan, egen, verksamhet, granskas, ord, problematiserar, kritiskt, analyserar, skrotats, regeringens, undermålig, möjligheten, takt, förd, respekterar, ramverks, ofta, skäl, nog, ifrågasätta, citera, gud, riksdagen, beslutar, ändrar, tycka, anmärkningsvärt, regering, efterleva, väljer, samtidigt, skatten, sänker, årets, hittills, allvarligaste, förhåller, ramverkets, landar, främst, fördömande, skjuter, finansieringen, försvarsutgifterna, sägs, reformutrymmet, bördor, därför, slutsatsen, genomgång, förda, åtstramningar, balanserade, budgetar, fortskridande, klimatkris, ont, goda, bruksanvisningar, fastna, stagnerande, konsumtionens, skylla, restriktiva, kreditgivningens, karybdis, krävs, rejäla, satsningar, ordentlig, arbetslöshetsersättning, generöst, socialförsäkringssystem, offensiv, aktivt, bidra, riskerna, kostsamma, systemkriser, egenstickade, tvångströjor, form, finanspolitiskt, tyvärr, förlänga, rådande, kriser, tider, förr, nödvändigt, förödande, dåligt, lärde, 1930, nödvändig, del, jobb, tillväxt, bli, tvungna, acceptera, storleksordningen, sådant, bättre, rakryggat, öppet, deklarera, övergivande, sett, tidigare, stärkt, solen, skiner, mestadels, väsentligt, sämre, regnar, motvind, uppförsbacke, överleva, kräftgången, kontraproduktivt, låtsas, fast, utgifts, internationell, jämförelse, framstår, exceptionellt, restriktivt, betydligt, ambitiöst, exempel, stabilitets, tillväxtpakt, ideologiskt, passat, fot, strumpa, velat, sektor, verkligen, kunna, medlet, adekvat, helig, slaktas, ändalykten, krita, vem, helst, räkna, befinner, extraordinär, extraordinära, åtgärder, bidrar, förvärra, stampar, ligger, över, scb, senaste, skattning, begåvats, ben, varför, hoppa, konjunkturen, riktigt, vända, fortsätter, skrämmande, nivå, svåra, blivit, tydligare, penning, räntepolitiken, längre, verkningsfull, liksom, mmt, förespråkare, uppenbart, förmågan, främja, stabilt, prisnivå, krafter, underbalansera, budgeten, offentliga, påverkar, svenska, utlandsskulden, historiskt, låga, framgår, hör, länder, allra, lägst, skuldsättning, utmaningar, inför, aggressivare, miltärmakt, öst, fortsatt, tal, ansvar, oansvarigt, statsfinanserna, rege, ring, samhällets, framtid, nere, bruttoskulden, medellång, idén, leder, sanningen, kallade, generationsövergripande, normalfallet, verklig, används, lämpligt, nettovinnare, naturligtvis, finnas, oönskade, negativa, fördelningsmässiga, oftast, dessa, betalningar, göras, återkommit, flera, gånger, lånefinansiering, utgöra, detsamma, hörde, diskussionerna, hetast, underskottsmål, orättvist, belasta, vare, försvarsutgifter, vanligtvis, frukta, särskilt, inom, landet, utländska, lån, nytta, investeras, vissa, medlemmar, tjänar, slutligen, nettoförlust, helhet, grupperna, emitterar, nödvändigtvis, starkt, inflationstryck, storleken, 1940, argumenterade, teori, funktionell, nivån, vilka, spendera, betyder, förbehåll, beslut, ekonomer, egentligen, tänker, variant, says, lika, investeringarna, crowding, bokföringsmässig, identitet, ekonomiskt, ointressant, planerat, avviker, varandra, anpassar, efterhand, huruvida, lyckas, misslyckas, ingenting, ekonomins, värld, behövs, förutom, når, nollgräns, zlb, normala, omständigheter, räcker, bedriva, penningpolitik, centralbankerna, justera, inflation, budgetunderskottet, tenderar, tränga, räntorna, stiger, alla, moderna, baserade, fiat, intrinsikalt, guld, ger, enkelt, skatt, möjligt, driva, slags, monopol, aldrig, statsutgifter, därmed, verkliga, motorn, statslån, sekundära, verktyg, depression, lösningen, åtstramning, stort, fiatpengar, välgrundat, teoretiskt, tackla, finansieringsfrågan, föreslagit, skattefinansieringen, kraftigt, höjd, progression, inkomstskatterna, kapitalskatter, särskilda, övervinstskatter, jag, kunnat, köpa, förslaget, lär, skattesänkarregering, sitter, politiska, rodret, presenterades, häromdagen, föreslås, istället, kraftfulla, aviserade, försvarssatsningarna, uppemot, 300, miljarder, kronor, höjda, omprioriteringar, årliga, försvaret, rekommendera, slutsats, rightly, contends, poses, existential, threat, extends, corrodes, foundational, principles, democracy, translates, eroding, institutional, trust, undermining, principle, citizenship, calls, minor, adjustments, shift, establishment, comprehensive, register, radical, lobbying, aggressively, concludes, celebrated, sustaining, urgent, intervention, irreversible, unravelling, contract, critically, frames, widening, phenomenon, regressive, reforms, inheritance, increasing, engineered, last, ubs, global, sixth, places, ahead, countries, commonly, strikingly, seventh, index, underscores, severity, challenges, widespread, outlier, defined, equality, globally, overwhelming, alarming, surge, 120, single, expands, impoverished, approximately, concurrently, afford, energy, measured, inability, heat, home, tripled, contrasts, violently, fortunes, apex, billionaires, surpasses, poorest, million, grew, alone, earners, disposable, roughly, damning, indictment
Text of the page (random words):
m har allra lägst offentlig skuldsättning med tanke på de stora utmaningar som sverige står inför med en allt aggressivare miltärmakt i öst är fortsatt tal om ansvar för statsbudgeten minst sagt oansvarigt i stället för att värna om statsfinanserna bör en ansvarsfull rege ring se till att värna om samhällets framtid för både john maynard keynes och abba lerner liksom för yours truly och andra mmt förespråkare var det uppenbart att staten har förmågan att främja full sysselsättning och en stabilt prisnivå och att den bör använda sina krafter för att uppnå detta om det innebär att staten måste ta på sig en skuld och underbalansera budgeten så må det vara offentlig skuld är varken bra eller dålig den är ett medel för att uppnå två övergripande makroekonomiska mål full sysselsättning och prisstabilitet vad som är heligt är inte att ha en balanserad budget eller att minska den offentliga skulden i sig oavsett hur detta påverkar de makroekonomiska målen konjunkturen vill inte riktigt vända och arbetslösheten fortsätter att ligga på en skrämmande hög hög nivå i detta minst sagt svåra läge har det blivit allt tydligare att penning och räntepolitiken inte längre är verkningsfull med ändalykten och en bit krita kan vem som helst räkna ut att vi befinner oss i en extraordinär situation och då måste vi ta till extraordinära åtgärder att inte använda finanspolitiken bidrar bara till att i onödan förvärra en situation där bnp står och stampar och arbetslöshet ligger kvar på över 8 procent enligt scb s senaste skattning om vi har begåvats med två ben varför bara hoppa runt på ett men för att vi verkligen ska kunna använda det finanspolitiska medlet på ett adekvat sätt måste en helig ko slaktas det finanspolitiska ramverket i en internationell jämförelse framstår detta ramverk som exceptionellt restriktivt och betydligt mer ambitiöst än till exempel eu s stabilitets och tillväxtpakt men ideologiskt har det passat som fot i strumpa för dem som velat se en mindre offentlig sektor sverige behöver en efterfrågestimulerande finanspolitik om vi ska överleva och ta oss ur den ekonomiska kräftgången då är det kontraproduktivt att låtsas att man kan hålla fast vid utgifts och balans målen för det går inte för att hålla tillbaka arbetslösheten och få fart på bnp kan vi mycket väl bli tvungna att acceptera budgetunderskott i storleksordningen 5 8 procent i ett sådant läge är det bättre och mer rakryggat att öppet deklarera ett övergivande av ett ur dagens perspektiv sett i grunden förfelat regelverk även om balansmål och utgiftstak kanske tidigare stärkt ekonomin måste vi vara öppna för att det som fungerar väl när solen skiner mestadels fungerar väsentligt mycket sämre när det regnar och man har motvind i uppförsbacke tider förändras det som förr varit nödvändigt och bra kan idag vara förödande dåligt som keynes lärde oss redan på 1930 talet kan underskott i kristider vara en nödvändig del av en ansvarsfull politik för att skapa jobb och tillväxt det är ont om goda bruksanvisningar i kristider men ska ekonomin inte fastna mellan den stagnerande konsumtionens skylla och den restriktiva kreditgivningens karybdis krävs en efterfrågestimulerande politik med rejäla satsningar pa infrastruktur en ordentlig arbetslöshetsersättning och ett generöst socialförsäkringssystem en offensiv finanspolitik kan aktivt bidra till att på sikt minska riskerna för kostsamma ekonomiska systemkriser men sả länge vi har en ekonomi med egenstickade tvångströjor i form ett finanspolitiskt ramverk med utgiftstak och balansmål kommer vi tyvärr också att i onödan förlänga rådande ekonomiska kriser om sunda statsfinanser åtstramningar och balanserade budgetar innebär ökad arbetslöshet instabila priser och en fortskridande klimatkris måste de överges och det är därför slutsatsen finanspolitiska rådet drar av sin genomgång av den förda finanspolitiken i vårt land är så i grunden missriktad när rådet i årets rapport framför sin hittills allvarligaste kritik mot hur finanspolitiken förhåller sig till det finanspolitiska ramverkets principer landar man främst i ett fördömande av att regeringen skjuter finansieringen av försvarsutgifterna framför sig vilket sägs minska reformutrymmet för framtida regeringar och leda till ökade bördor för kommande generationer det må vara att det för att nu citera vår finansminister inte är gud men riksdagen som beslutar om ramverk det ändrar inte på det faktum att man kan tycka det är anmärkningsvärt att en regering inte kan efterleva ett regelverk den själv varit med om att skapa och än mer att man väljer att låna samtidigt som man sänker skatten men oavsett om vi kan vara överens om att mycket av den nuvarande regeringens ekonomiska politik är minst sagt undermålig måste vi också vara öppna för möjligheten att när politik och ramverk inte går i takt så är det inte alltid självklart att det är politiken det är fel på att en förd finanspolitik inte respekterar ett i grunden förfelat ramverks principer är ofta skäl nog att ifrågasätta ramverket snarare än politiken finanspolitiska rådet ska självklart granska den finanspolitik som förs i vårt land men frågan är om inte också rådets egen verksamhet borde granskas inte minst med tanke på att rådet inte med ett ord problematiserar eller kritiskt analyserar ett ramverk som för länge sedan borde ha skrotats share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky the dangers of insufficiently deep explanations 17 feb 2026 at 08 43 posted in economics comments off on the dangers of insufficiently deep explanations evidently however the potential for the strictly natural natural experimental approach which relies exclusively on natural events as instruments is constrained by the small number of random events provided by nature and by the fact that most outcomes of interest are the result of many factors associated with preferences technologies and markets and the prospect of the discovery of new and useful natural events is limited it is clear that the number of natural instruments will never be sufficient to eliminate the necessity of imposing auxiliary assumptions or of obtaining supplementary empirical information relevant to the assumptions needed for identification measurement without theory however is not significantly more valuable than it ever was before the use of natural natural experiments mark rosenzweig kenneth wolpin rosenzweig and wolpin discuss several serious problems associated with studies based on so called natural experiments one notable and important issue they do not address however is that researchers who rely on randomisation based strategies often formulate questions in ways that yield exact and precise answers but not necessarily to the questions we most care about in such cases research design becomes the primary focus as long as scholars can construct sufficiently clever experiments they assume they can draw far reaching conclusions about causality and generalise the results to broader populations yet this approach frequently shifts attention away from substantive and important issues towards methodological refinement for its own sake design and careful research planning are of course essential but the ultimate credibility of research lies in its ability to answer meaningful and relevant questions those that matter to both citizens and the scholarly community in empirical economics natural experiments are frequently analysed using an instrumental variables iv approach iv methods are attractive because they offer a way to recover causal effects when randomised controlled trials are infeasible and endogeneity threatens identification however what iv typically delivers is a total causal effect not a decomposition of the underlying mechanisms the estimate captures the overall impact of the treatment on the outcome for a specific group often the compliers without clarifying the distinct pathways through which that effect operates as a result we may learn that a policy works but not why it works this limits theoretical development and weakens external validity without identifying separable causal channels policy conclusions risk remaining superficial a deeper understanding requires complementary methods that unpack mechanisms rather than merely quantify aggregate effects share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky ivory coast 16 feb 2026 at 17 50 posted in varia comments off on ivory coast share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how to make full employment compatible with fiscal stability 15 feb 2026 at 15 38 posted in economics 3 comments the link between income distribution and aggregate demand is central to post keynesian and heterodox economics yet largely sidelined in mainstream policy debates the logic is simple lower income households have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the wealthy an extra euro in the hands of a poorer household is mostly spent in the hands of a richer one it is more likely saved or invested in financial assets this asymmetry has major macroeconomic consequences when income is distributed more evenly a larger share of national income flows directly into consumption structural demand rises the economy can reach full capacity with less reliance on debt and smaller fiscal deficits because spending is already sustained by households with high marginal propensities to consume by contrast when income is concentrated at the top the overall demand weakens to maintain output and employment the economy must lean more heavily on borrowing whether through household credit or government deficits the policy implication is clear if the objective is to limit long run debt accumulation without triggering stagnation austerity is the wrong tool cutting spending in a demand deficient economy only deepens the problem the durable solution lies in reducing inequality itself progressive taxation strong public services collective bargaining and asset building policies for lower income households all raise the economy s underlying propensity to consume by strengthening demand at its source they make full employment compatible with fiscal stability the real choice is not between debt and discipline it is between an unequal economy that requires permanent stimulus and a more equal one that does not public debt is usually nothing to fear especially when it is financed domestically though even foreign borrowing can benefit the economy especially if invested productively some members of society hold government bonds and receive interest payments while others pay the taxes that ultimately finance those payments from the perspective of society as a whole the debt is not a net burden it largely cancels out between creditors and taxpayers if the state issues bonds at low interest rates it can reduce unemployment without necessarily generating significant inflationary pressure for john maynard keynes and abba lerner as well as for yours truly and other proponents of modern monetary theory it was clear that the state has both the capacity and the responsibility to promote full employment and price stability it should use its fiscal powers accordingly if that requires running temporary deficits and accumulating public debt so be it public debt is neither inherently good nor bad it is a policy instrument for achieving two overarching macroeconomic objectives full employment and stable prices what should not be treated as sacred is a balanced budget or debt reduction in itself irrespective of macroeconomic outcomes if sound public finances austerity and balanced budgets result in higher unemployment price instability or a worsening climate crisis then those policies not public debt should be reconsidered share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky causal inference in the presence of heterogeneity 14 feb 2026 at 11 50 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on causal inference in the presence of heterogeneity in the book of why judea pearl puts forward several compelling reasons why the now so popular causal graph theoretic approach is to be preferred over more traditional regression based explanatory models one reason is that causal graphs are non parametric and therefore do not need to assume for example additivity and or the absence of interaction effects arrows and nodes replace the necessary specifications of functional relationships between the variables included in the equations that regression analysis requires but even if pearl and other advocates of graph theory mostly emphasise the advantages of the flexibility this new tool gives us there are also clear risks and disadvantages associated with the use of causal graphs the lack of clarity regarding whether additivity interaction or other variable and relationship characteristics are present and how they if so are specified can sometimes create more problems than they solve many of the problems just as with regression analyses are connected to the presence and degree of heterogeneity let me take an example from the field of educational research to illustrate the issue in recent years a recurring question that both politicians and researchers in sweden have asked themselves is whether our friskolor independent schools charter schools lead to higher knowledge levels and test results among the pupils to be able to answer this in reality very difficult causal question we need knowledge of a multitude of known observable variables and background factors parents income and education ethnicity housing etc etc in addition also factors that we know are important but are unobservable and or more or less immeasurable the problems begin already when we ask ourselves what lies behind the general term independent school not all independent schools are equivalent homogeneity we know that there are often large differences between them heterogeneity to then lump them all together and try to answer the causal question without taking these differences into account often becomes pointless and sometimes completely misleading another problem is that another type of heterogeneity which has to do with the specification of the functional relationships can appear suppose the independent school effect is connected to for example ethnicity and that pupils with a swedish background perform better than pupils with an immigrant background this does not necessarily mean that pupils with different ethnic backgrounds are in themselves affected differently by attending an independent school the effect could rather originate for instance from the fact that the alternative municipal schools that immigrant pupils could have attended were worse than those the swedish pupils could have attended if these differences in the basis for compariso...
|
