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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2018;
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on will never deliver sustainable building blocks for a realist and relevant social science that is also as yours truly argues in the latest issue of real world economics review the reason why game theory never will be anything but a footnote in the history of social science heavy use of formalism and mathematics easily foster the view that a theory is scientific but although game theory may produce absolute truths in imaginary model worlds in the real world the game theoretic models are nothing but as rubinstein 2012a puts it fables fables much reminiscent of the models used in logic but also like them delivering very little of value for social sciences trying to explain and understand real life phenomena the games that game theory portrays are model constructs models without significant predictive capacity simply because they do not describe an always much more complex and uncertain reality although some economists consider it useful to apply game theory and use game theoretical definitions axioms and theorems and try to test if real world phenomena satisfy the axioms and the inferences made from them we have argued that that view is without warrant when confronted with the real world we can hopefully judge if game theory really tells us if things are as postulated the final court of appeal for models is the real world and as long as no convincing justification is put forward for how the inferential bridging de facto is made model building is little more than hand waving that give us rather little warrant for making inductive inferences from the model world to the real world the real challenge in social science is to accept uncertainty and still try to explain why different kinds of transactions and social interactions take place simply conjuring problems away by assuming patently unreal things and treating uncertainty as if it was possible to reduce to stochastic risk is like playing tennis with the net down that is not the kind of game that scientists working on constructing a relevant and realist science want to play share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky keynes critique of econometrics still valid after all these years 26 mar 2018 at 19 24 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments to apply statistical and mathematical methods to the real world economy the econometrician has to make some quite strong assumptions in a review of tinbergen s econometric work published in the economic journal in 1939 john maynard keynes gave a comprehensive critique of tinbergen s work focusing on the limiting and unreal character of the assumptions that econometric analyses build on 1 completeness where tinbergen attempts to specify and quantify which different factors influence the business cycle keynes maintains there has to be a complete list of all the relevant factors to avoid misspecification and spurious causal claims usually this problem is solved by econometricians assuming that they somehow have a correct model specification keynes is to put it mildly unconvinced it will be remembered that the seventy translators of the septuagint were shut up in seventy separate rooms with the hebrew text and brought out with them when they emerged seventy identical translations would the same miracle be vouchsafed if seventy multiple correlators were shut up with the same statistical material and anyhow i suppose if each had a different economist perched on his a priori that would make a difference to the outcome j m keynes 2 homogeneity to make inductive inferences possible and being able to apply econometrics the system we try to analyse has to have a large degree of homogeneity according to keynes most social and economic systems especially from the perspective of real historical time lack that homogeneity it is not always possible to take repeated samples from a fixed population when we were analysing real world economies in many cases there simply are no reasons at all to assume the samples to be homogenous 3 stability tinbergen assumes there is a stable spatio temporal relationship between the variables his econometric models analyze but keynes argued that it was not really possible to make inductive generalisations based on correlations in one sample as later studies of regime shifts and structural breaks have shown us it is exceedingly difficult to find and establish the existence of stable econometric parameters for anything but rather short time series 4 measurability tinbergen s model assumes that all relevant factors are measurable keynes questions if it is possible to adequately quantify and measure things like expectations and political and psychological factors and more than anything he questioned both on epistemological and ontological grounds that it was always and everywhere possible to measure real world uncertainty with the help of probabilistic risk measures thinking otherwise can as keynes wrote only lead to error and delusion 5 independence tinbergen assumes that the variables he treats are independent still a standard assumption in econometrics keynes argues that in such a complex organic and evolutionary system as an economy independence is a deeply unrealistic assumption to make building econometric models from that kind of simplistic and unrealistic assumptions risk producing nothing but spurious correlations and causalities real world economies are organic systems for which the statistical methods used in econometrics are ill suited or even strictly seen inapplicable mechanical probabilistic models have little leverage when applied to non atomic evolving organic systems such as economies building econometric models can t be a goal in itself good econometric models are means that make it possible for us to infer things about the real world systems they represent if we can t show that the mechanisms or causes that we isolate and handle in our econometric models are exportable to the real world they are of limited value to our understanding explanations or predictions of real world economic systems 6 linearity to make his models tractable tinbergen assumes the relationships between the variables he study to be linear this is still standard procedure today but as keynes writes it is a very drastic and usually improbable postulate to suppose that all economic forces are of this character producing independent changes in the phenomenon under investigation which are directly proportional to the changes in themselves indeed it is ridiculous to keynes it was a fallacy of reification to assume that all quantities are additive an assumption closely linked to independence and linearity the unpopularity of the principle of organic unities shows very clearly how great is the danger of the assumption of unproved additive formulas the fallacy of which ignorance of organic unity is a particular instance may perhaps be mathematically represented thus suppose f x is the goodness of x and f y is the goodness of y it is then assumed that the goodness of x and y together is f x f y when it is clearly f x y and only in special cases will it be true that f x y f x f y it is plain that it is never legitimate to assume this property in the case of any given function without proof j m keynes ethics in relation to conduct 1903 real world social systems are usually not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are laws and relations about entities in models that presuppose causal mechanisms and variables and the relationship between them being linear additive homogenous stable invariant and atomistic but when causal mechanisms operate in the real world they only do it in ever changing and unstable combinations where the whole is more than a mechanical sum of parts since statisticians and econometricians have not been able to convincingly warrant their assumptions of homogeneity stability invariance independence additivity as being ontologically isomorphic to real world economic systems keynes critique is still valid in his critique of tinbergen keynes points us to the fundamental logical epistemological and ontological problems of applying statistical methods to a basically unpredictable uncertain complex unstable interdependent and ever changing social reality methods designed to analyse repeated sampling in controlled experiments under fixed conditions are not easily extended to an organic and non atomistic world where time and history play decisive roles econometric modelling should never be a substitute for thinking from that perspective it is really depressing to see how much of keynes critique of the pioneering econometrics in the 1930s 1940s is still relevant today the general line you take is interesting and useful it is of course not exactly comparable with mine i was raising the logical difficulties you say in effect that if one was to take these seriously one would give up the ghost in the first lap but that the method used judiciously as an aid to more theoretical enquiries and as a means of suggesting possibilities and probabilities rather than anything else taken with enough grains of salt and applied with superlative common sense won t do much harm i should quite agree with that that is how the method ought to be used keynes letter to e j broster december 19 1939 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky programmet som gör det värt att betala varenda krona i radio och tv avgiften 25 mar 2018 at 17 18 posted in varia 3 comments i dessa tider när ljudrummet dränks i den kommersiella radions tyckmyckentrutade ordbajseri och fullständigt intetsägande pubertalflamsande tjafs har man nästan gett upp men det finns ljus i mörkret i programmet text och musik med eric schüldt som sänds på söndagsförmiddagarna i p2 mellan klockan 11 och 12 kan man lyssna på seriös musik och en programledare som har något att säga och inte bara låter foderluckan glappa en lisa för själen i dagens program kunde man bland annat höra detta oändligt vackra stycke musik tack eric för ett fantastiskt program som bara det är värt varenda krona som läggs på radio och tv avgiften rational choice history a case of models not fitting the facts 24 mar 2018 at 17 01 posted in economics 6 comments rational choice history is in a worse situation than that of either mechanistic biology in the seventeenth century or of sociobiology today the analogy would be appropriate if it were mainly a question of refining the theories and of gathering more evidence one could refine theory by incorporating bounded rationality and quasi rational choice so as to match more closely the way in which actual decisions are made one could gather more evidence by paying careful attention to sources that illuminate the beliefs and goals of the actors the need for modesty appears in two ways first as i have been at some pain to emphasize one should avoid the postulate of hyperrationality collective action iterated games and credibility are simple ideas that can be and have been refined to yield rococo or baroque constructions that no longer bear any relation to observable behavior to be useful they have to be constrained by what we know about the limitations of the human mind second because formal analysis has nothing to say about the motivation of the agents it cannot by itself yield robust predictions although it is extremely useful to know that the structure of material interests in a given case is that of a one shot prisoner s dilemma that fact does not by itself imply anything about what the agents will do if they have nonmaterial or even nonrational motivations they might behave very differently from the noncooperative behavior we would expect if they were exclusively swayed by material interests if they are in fact observed to cooperate then we will have to search for nonmaterial or nonrational motivations rational choice theory tells us what to look for not what we will find jon elster share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky parce mihi domine 24 mar 2018 at 09 55 posted in varia comments off on parce mihi domine national security adviser john bolton a bullying madman 24 mar 2018 at 09 19 posted in politics society comments off on national security adviser john bolton a bullying madman john r bolton chosen by president trump to be his new national security adviser does not need the senate s endorsement to succeed h r mcmaster in the job but in 2005 the extraordinary refusal to confirm his nomination to be president george w bush s ambassador to the united nations by a republican controlled committee is worth revisiting for what it revealed about mr bolton and what it may portend for our national security one moment singularly derailed his nomination testifying before the usually staid senate foreign relations committee in april 2005 carl w ford jr the former assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research called mr bolton a kiss up kick down sort of guy and a serial abuser of people beneath him in the chain of command mr ford a self described conservative republican and bush supporter made vivid an emerging portrait of mr bolton as a bully who repeatedly sought retribution against career intelligence analysts with the temerity to contradict him other witnesses came forward to allege abusive behavior by mr bolton during his time as a lawyer in the private sector screaming threatening throwing documents and in the words of one woman genuinely behaving like a madman antony blinken new york times how to interpret and use regression analysis 23 mar 2018 at 19 06 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on how to interpret and use regression analysis after having mastered all the technicalities of regression analysis and econometrics students often feel as though they are the masters of the universe i usually cool them down with a required reading of christopher achen s modern classic interpreting and using regression it usually gets them back on track again and they understand that no increase in methodological sophistication alter the fundamental nature of the subject it remains a wondrous mixture of rigorous theory experienced judgment and inspired guesswork and that finally is its charm and in case they get too excited about having learned to master the intricacies of proper significance tests and p values i ask them to also ponder on achen s warning significance testing as a search for specification errors substitutes calculations for substantive thinking worse it channels energy toward the hopeless search for functionally correct specifications and diverts attention from the real tasks which are to formulate a manageable description of the data and to exclude competing ones what do economic models explain 22 mar 2018 at 19 55 posted in ...
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