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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during December 2020;
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lities are the exception rather than the rule to every statement about it is attached a weight of argument that makes it impossible to reduce our beliefs and expectations to a one dimensional stochastic probability distribution if god does not play dice as einstein maintained i would add nor do people the world as we know it has limited scope for certainty and perfect knowledge its intrinsic and almost unlimited complexity and the interrelatedness of its organic parts prevent the possibility of treating it as constituted by legal atoms with discretely distinct separable and stable causal relations our knowledge accordingly has to be of a rather fallible kind if the real world is fuzzy vague and indeterminate then why should our models build upon a desire to describe it as precise and predictable even if there always has to be a trade off between theory internal validity and external validity we have to ask ourselves if our models are relevant human logic has to supplant the classical formal logic of deductivism if we want to have anything of interest to say of the real world we inhabit logic is a marvellous tool in mathematics and axiomatic deductivist systems but a poor guide for action in real world systems in which concepts and entities are without clear boundaries and continually interact and overlap in this world i would say we are better served with a methodology that takes into account that the more we know the more we know we do not know mathematics and logic cannot establish the truth value of facts never has never will share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky postmodern thinking 28 dec 2020 at 18 27 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on postmodern thinking the compulsive types there correspond to the paranoids here the wistful opposition to factual research the legitimate consciousness that scientism forgets what is best exacerbates through its naïvété the split from which it suffers instead of comprehending the facts behind which others are barricaded it hurriedly throws together whatever it can grab from them rushing off to play so uncritically with apochryphal cognitions with a couple isolated and hypostatized categories and with itself that it is easily disposed of by referring to the unyielding facts it is precisely the critical element which is lost in the apparently independent thought the insistence on the secret of the world hidden beneath the shell which dares not explain how it relates to the shell only reconfirms through such abstemiousness the thought that there must be good reasons for that shell which one ought to accept without question between the pleasure of emptiness and the lie of plenitude the ruling condition of the spirit geistes mind permits no third option long before postmodernism became fashionable among a certain kind of intellectuals adorno wrote searching critiques of this kind of thinking when listening to or reading the postmodern mumbo jumbo that surrounds us today in social sciences and humanities i often find myself wishing for that special annie hall moment of truth share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky we read to know we are not alone 27 dec 2020 at 15 46 posted in varia comments off on we read to know we are not alone share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how scientists manipulate research 27 dec 2020 at 13 22 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment all science entails human judgment and using statistical models doesn t relieve us of that necessity working with misspecified models the scientific value of significance testing is actually zero even though you re making valid statistical inferences statistical models and concomitant significance tests are no substitutes for doing real science in its standard form a significance test is not the kind of severe test that we are looking for in our search for being able to confirm or disconfirm empirical scientific hypotheses this is problematic for many reasons one being that there is a strong tendency to accept the null hypothesis since they can t be rejected at the standard 5 significance level in their standard form significance tests bias against new hypotheses by making it hard to disconfirm the null hypothesis and as shown over and over again when it is applied people have a tendency to read not disconfirmed as probably confirmed standard scientific methodology tells us that when there is only say a 10 probability that pure sampling error could account for the observed difference between the data and the null hypothesis it would be more reasonable to conclude that we have a case of disconfirmation especially if we perform many independent tests of our hypothesis and they all give the same 10 result as our reported one i guess most researchers would count the hypothesis as even more disconfirmed statistics is no substitute for thinking we should never forget that the underlying parameters we use when performing significance tests are model constructions our p values mean next to nothing if the model is wrong statistical significance tests do not validate models in many social sciences p values and null hypothesis significance testing nhst is often used to draw far reaching scientific conclusions despite the fact that they are as a rule poorly understood and that there exist alternatives that are easier to understand and more informative not the least using confidence intervals cis and effect sizes are to be preferred to the neyman pearson fisher mishmash approach that is so often practiced by applied researchers running a monte carlo simulation with 100 replications of a fictitious sample having n 20 confidence intervals of 95 a normally distributed population with a mean 10 and a standard deviation of 20 taking two tailed p values on a zero null hypothesis we get varying cis since they are based on varying sample standard deviations but with a minimum of 3 2 and a maximum of 26 1 we still get a clear picture of what would happen in an infinite limit sequence on the other hand p values even though from a purely mathematical statistical sense more or less equivalent to cis vary strongly from sample to sample and jumping around between a minimum of 0 007 and a maximum of 0 999 doesn t give you a clue of what will happen in an infinite limit sequence share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky förnöjsamhet 27 dec 2020 at 10 01 posted in varia comments off on förnöjsamhet zufriedenheit contentedness contentment contentezza en alldeles för underskattad karaktärsegenskap share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky o nuit viens apporter à la terre le calme enchantement de ton mystère 25 dec 2020 at 10 58 posted in varia comments off on o nuit viens apporter à la terre le calme enchantement de ton mystère share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky a winter s tale 24 dec 2020 at 11 13 posted in varia comments off on a winter s tale merry christmas share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky trots det lever jag utan förtvivlan 24 dec 2020 at 00 01 posted in varia comments off on trots det lever jag utan förtvivlan om den värld jag tillhör har jag inte något hopp undergången är inbyggd i systemet ty vart varningsrop blir strax förlöjligat och därmed oskadliggjort trots det lever jag utan förtvivlan det tillhör den enskildes villkor att leva vid katastrofens rand vägen fram till döden ter sig lika lång var man än befinner sig i livet så är det också med mänsklighetens tillvaro jag uppfattar den vemodsfyllda blick varmed unga människor ser på mig jag känner igen den de vet inte att jag betraktar dem på samma sätt och mäter deras återstående liv i samma förgängelsekänslas tecken alla hör vi samman olof lagercrantz share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics the art of pulling a rabbit out of a hat 22 dec 2020 at 17 57 posted in statistics econometrics 5 comments in econometrics one often gets the feeling that many of its practitioners think of it as a kind of automatic inferential machine input data and out comes causal knowledge this is as joan robinson once had it like pulling a rabbit from a hat great but first you have to put the rabbit in the hat and this is where assumptions come in to the picture the assumption of imaginary superpopulations is one of the many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics and as clint ballinger highlights this is a particularly questionable rabbit pulling assumption inferential statistics are based on taking a random sample from a larger population and attempting to draw conclusions about a the larger population from that data and b the probability that the relations between measured variables are consistent or are artifacts of the sampling procedure however in political science economics development studies and related fields the data often represents as complete an amount of data as can be measured from the real world an apparent population it is not the result of a random sampling from a larger population nevertheless social scientists treat such data as the result of random sampling because there is no source of further cases a fiction is propagated the data is treated as if it were from a larger population a superpopulation where repeated realizations of the data are imagined imagine there could be more worlds with more cases and the problem is fixed what draw from this imaginary superpopulation does the real world set of cases we have in hand represent this is simply an unanswerable question the current set of cases could be representative of the superpopulation and it could be an extremely unrepresentative sample a one in a million chance selection from it the problem is not one of statistics that need to be fixed rather it is a problem of the misapplication of inferential statistics to non inferential situations share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky hommage 22 dec 2020 at 12 52 posted in varia comments off on hommage sven bertil taubes med rätta hyllade föreställning på cirkus i stockholm ligger nu på svt play se den share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky ekonomiprofessorerna och tämjandet av marknadskrafterna i skolan 21 dec 2020 at 13 15 posted in education school 4 comments i sverige år 2020 låter vi friskolekoncerner med många gånger undermålig verksamhet få plocka ut skyhöga vinster vinster som den svenska staten låter dessa koncerner ta av vår skattefinansierade skolpeng en av landets största friskolekoncerner engelska skolan gjorde senaste året en vinst på 250 miljoner kronor för varje elev genererades 10 000 kronor i vinst många är med rätta upprörda och de som är kritiska till privatisering av skola har haft gyllene tillfällen att tydligt och klart tala om att man nu vill se till att undanröja möjligheterna för vinstdrivande bolag att verka inom skolan men så har inte skett som min gamla kollega ann marie pålsson skriver i sydsvenskan idag lite tillspetsat har friskolereformen gjort skolan till en handelsvara och omvandlat det offentligas skyldighet att förse de unga med utbildning till en rätt för skolbolag att ta ut obegränsade vinster regeringarna har haft årtionden på sig att rätta till detta men inget har skett istället har marknadens logik brett ut sig allt mer talande är att ingen reagerade ens när en stor friskolekoncern internationella engelska skolan köptes upp av ett riskkapitalbolag med säte i luxemburg i dn 20 12 2020 skriver fyra ekonomiprofessorer och föreslår ett antal reformer som ska göra marknadskrafterna mer aptitliga i skolan att släppa in marknadskrafterna i skolan på det radikala sätt som gjorts i sverige är inte okomplicerat utifrån ekonomisk teori och empiri oavsett syn på 1990 talets reformer kan nog de flesta acceptera att det finns ett betydande utrymme för reformvårdande åtgärder som kan få marknadskrafterna i skolan att fungera bättre i det här inlägget föreslår vi ett antal reformer som främjar kunskapsbildning utan att skapa onödig ineffektivitet eller orättvisa men vänta lite nu reformvårdande åtgärder var det inte så att när man på 1990 talet påbörjade systemskiftet inom välfärdssektorn ofta anförde som argument för privatiseringarna att man just skulle slippa den byråkratiska logikens kostnader i form av regelverk kontroller och uppföljningar konkurrensen denna marknadsfundamentalismens panacé skulle ju göra driften effektivare och höja verksamheternas kvalitet och nu när privatiseringsvåtdrömmen visat sig vara en mardröm så tror man att just det som man ville bli av med regelverk tillsyn och kontroll skulle vara lösningen ska man genomföra de åtgärdspaket som förs fram undrar man ju hur det går med den där effektivitetsvinsten kontroller uppdragsspecifikationer inspektioner kostar ju pengar och hur mycket överskott blir det då och hur mycket värd är den där valfriheten när vi ser hur den gång på gång bara resulterar i verksamhet där vinst genereras genom kostnadsnedskärningar och sänkt kvalitet därutöver kan man klart också fråga sig varför samhället ska lägga omfattande resurser på att granska och inspektera skolföretag vars verksamhet ständigt verkar ge upphov till skandaler resursslöseri försämrad kvalitet och allt sämre resultat all form av ekonomisk verksamhet bygger på eller inbegriper någon form av delegering en part uppdragsgivaren vill att en annan part utföraren ska utföra en viss uppgift grundproblemet är hur beställaren ska få utföraren att utföra uppdraget på det sätt som beställaren önskar det finns en uppenbar fara i att basera ersättningssystem på enkla objektiva mått när det vi vill ersätta i själva verket har flera och komplexa dimensioner exempelvis ersättning efter antal utskrivna patienter lärarlöner kopplade till betyg eller dylikt ofta har välfärdssektorns verksamheter denna karaktär av fleruppgiftsverkamhet och då fungerar inte incitamentkontrakt eller provisioner i sådana fall kan byråkratier vara mer ändamålsenliga än marknader internationella jämförelser visar att det system vi har i sverige med vinstdrivande skolor leder till att våra skolor blir allt mindre likvärdiga och att detta i sin tur bidrar till allt sämre resultat ska vi råda bot på detta måste vi ha ett skolsystem som inte bygger på ett marknadsmässigt konkurrenstänk där skolor istället för at...
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