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to civilisation but the topic here is gold and the economy not civilization the other occurrence is in chapter 23 where keynes quotes leslie stephen on the wickedness of bernard mandeville s fable of the bees i was going to say this second one doesn t count at all but on second thought it does show the connection between the economy and the moral views of society that is the moral views of civilization as long ago as 1723 i therefore count one relevant reference to civilization in keynes s book if keynes focused on civilization when he wrote the general theory he didn t do it by making fulsome use of the word civilisation here s why i have trouble reading geoff mann while i find keynes almost completely focused on economic concerns mann finds civilization in everything keynes touched as a result i tend to doubt geoff mann s claims about keynes s focus on civilization and his book is full of such claims when i started thinking in terms of the cycle of civilization after reading a canticle for leibowitz as a teenager talk of our time as part of the decline of civilization would receive a dismissal at best nobody wanted any part of it i learned not to talk about it so i tend to leave it out when i write for the blog i ve been gradually building up to the topic for years laying a foundation making the occasional reference it may be easier to talk about the decline of civilization now as decline has become more obvious i wouldn t know but geoff mann seems to have found an audience i dug out my notes from the 90s on the kondratieff wave the 1972 book by shuman and rosenau this is what i was looking for from the preface most of what happened in the 1960s including the vietnam war and the social unrest that preceded and accompanied it could have been predicted bold claim and then this in an age that still relies on a narrow definition of scientific proof a long wave that controls not only the economy but the way people act smacks too much of the occult to win the approval of rigidly scientific economists that last part about the long wave not being acceptable to economists that s what i was remembering and that s how i try to deal with the topic too by assuming that people find the topic quirky at best and generally unacceptable i always picture the magazine cartoon of the disheveled bum carrying a the end is near sign nobody likes that guy myself i always say thinking in terms of the cycle of civilization can be useful because it sometimes helps when we try to fit the economy s puzzle pieces together i don t see how that could be objectionable at all really consider this again from the shuman and rosenau book a long wave that controls not only the economy but the way people act smacks too much of the occult to win widespread approval my response to that in my old textfile was my problem with this is the wave does not control the economy the wave is simply an observed phenomenon the wave is a hint the wave like gdp and various rates and measures is feedback it is information about how the economy is performing and whether policy is having the desired effect where s the harm in that so i am reading mann s book searching for occurrences of keynes in the text actually and i come to this sentence the grandiose utopia that keynes sometimes proposes like the virtuous full employment communism of capital he envisions at the close of the general theory might occasionally give his futurology a rosy glow dead stop i don t remember keynes using the phrase communism of capital in the closing chapter and that chapter is one of my favorites but there it is in quotes attributed to keynes apparently in the closing chapter the end of the closing chapter of the general theory i checked mann s footnotes just in case but there was no reference to the communism quote i checked chapter 24 of the general theory just to be sure because my memory is reliably unreliable the bottom line of the image at right shows the search field bordered in red along with the text of the search result phrase not found which is also in red i checked the text of the whole book just in case phrase not found if i go back to geoff mann s sentence and read it carefully i can see that he does not specifically say keynes says the words communism of capital but mann s sentence gives the impression that he is quoting keynes that is no accident and mann has the phrase in quotes when i read it i thought he was quoting keynes i couldn t believe that i somehow missed that three word phrase i didn t at march 25 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday march 24 2022 i think milton friedman was a nine letters a person who pretends to have certain beliefs attitudes or feelings when they really do not monetarist economics is milton friedman s direct criticism of keynesian economics friedman s permanent income hypothesis undermines the case for progressive taxation keynes emphasized volatile flows friedman emphasized stocks of wealth friedman took issue with the keynesian multiplier friedman said i think keynes was a great economist friedman was constantly littering and yet he said i think keynes was a great economist at march 24 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday march 22 2022 keynes s general theory in one sentence from chapter 3 the effective demand associated with full employment is a special case only realised when the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest stand in a particular relationship to one another at march 22 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday march 21 2022 the economic cycle of civilization in the long run we are all dead keynesianism political economy and revolution pdf 362 pages by geoff mann 2017 geoff mann from page 49 in his book keynesians are certain that neither civilization nor capitalism is natural if left to self regulate things will not take care of themselves that s mann s definition of keynesians not mine but it is true that economists often talk about equilibrium as if it was the natural state of the economy it isn t in the natural state as in eden there is no economy in eden and in the dark age we are often told that the troubles of our economy arise due to government interference this is largely true i for one am always pointing out flaws in policy and suggesting improvements hey i don t want to change everything i only want to fix two or three things i m always pointing out flaws because the same two or three things come up all the time but the fact that some of our troubles arise from flawed policy does not mean that all of our troubles arise from flawed policy some of them arise from a lack of policy because our trust in self regulation is too strong and because things really don t take care of themselves oh our economy does take care of itself when conditions are good that s when we get a golden age or seven good years but when we fail to promote the general welfare by proper management of economic conditions we get the seven bad years or the lost decades or insurrection or revolution or a dark age according to the josé ortega y gasset quote i posted the other day also from the geoff mann book civilization is not self sustaining it is artificial and demands an artist or artisan i m retelling that story today according to a j toynbee civilization faces challenges but continues to advance as long as each challenge is met with a successful response i m retelling that story today looking at civilization as one massive business cycle i can see that keynes was right to compare the great depression to the dark age and i understand that the peak of the cycle occurred some time around 1776 with our declaration of independence and adam smith s wealth of nations and gibbon s decline and fall of the roman empire first seeing daylight that year it is ironic that gibbon s book on the fall of rome was published at the peak of the next cycle but i do love irony the irony gets deep when we realize that smith s book is capitalism s handbook and that capitalism drives the decline and fall you can see this if you look geoff mann who knows what to look for says on page 10 i cannot help but see it everywhere i look i should say i never said capitalism drives the decline and fall until today i think i m adopting the wording from geoff mann and my hasn t my story changed since 14 march but don t forget my version of capitalism drives the decline and fall goes more like this the cycle of civilization is a cycle of dispersion and concentration of wealth we are in the stage of civilization where capitalism as cause of decline is easy to see concentration of wealth is easy to see mergers and acquisitions are everywhere amazon owns mgm for crying out loud during the rise of civilization wealth increases faster than it concentrates during the fall wealth increases more slowly than it concentrates as the end draws near fewer and fewer owners remain the rest of us if we are lucky get to be serfs the only acceptable alternative that i can see is to prevent decline fortunately the cycle of civilization is an economic cycle so policy can stop the decline and restore the rise if we commit to doing so and if we get the policy right and dally not at march 21 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest sunday march 20 2022 use of the word financialization even if we combine the two spellings there is essentially no use of the word financialization until the 1980s at march 20 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels financialization in the 19th century saturday march 19 2022 prescience google tells me the great depression start date was august 1929 when i ask when was black thursday it says september 1929 britannica puts black thursday on october 24 1929 august september october 1929 somewhere in there okay for context from britannica great depression worldwide economic downturn that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939 although it originated in the united states the great depression caused drastic declines in output severe unemployment and acute deflation in almost every country of the world from an essay titled liberalism and labour given as a speech by john maynard keynes in 1926 as things are now we have nothing to look forward to except a continuance of conservative governments not merely until they have made mistakes in the tolerable degree which would have caused a swing of the pendulum in former days but until their mistakes have mounted up to the height of a disaster i do not like this choice of alternatives from an essay titled a programme of expansion written by john maynard keynes in april 1929 it is not an accident that the conservative government have landed us in the mess where we find ourselves it is the natural outcome of their philosophy you must not press on with telephones or electricity because this will raise the rate of interest you must not hasten with roads or housing because this will use up opportunities for employment which we may need in later years you must not try to employ every one because this will cause inflation you must not invest because how can you know that it will pay you must not do anything because this will only mean that you can t do something else safety first the policy of maintaining a million unemployed has now been pursued for eight years without disaster why risk a change we will not promise more than we can perform we therefore promise nothing this is what we are being fed with they are slogans of depression and decay the timidities and obstructions and stupidities of a sinking administrative vitality prescience no to call it prescience cheapens it keynes understood the economy as no one since has done at march 19 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday march 18 2022 seven ngrams ngrams word usage for example the graph titled the use of credit shows the usage of that phrase it does not show the use of credit and the graph titled beneficial credit shows all usage of that particular word combination not only when the source says credit is beneficial but also when they say it is not click image to jump to the ngram viewer credit is good peak circa 1918 the use of credit peak circa 1933 beneficial credit peak circa 1985 credit and economic growth peaks in 1959 and 2017 debt and economic growth peak in 2019 with end of data credit and debt and debt and credit good credit usage now half what is was in the early 1800s at march 18 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday march 17 2022 found by accident drew my attention immediately in the long run we are all dead keynesianism political economy and revolution pdf 362 pages by geoff mann 2017 the heading on page 58 a general theory of civilization page 59 keynes became a keynesian not to save capitalism or liberalism per se but to save the thin and precarious crust of civilization itself he was to be sure a capitalist and he believed that something like capitalism although in a more or less radically different form would be a central pillar in the construction of more robust peaceful and secure social formation but to read his commitment to capitalism as his priority is to misunderstand his politics and that of many elites of his time he understood capitalism to be intimately interwoven with but not identical to civilization his work especially but not only the general theory is an attempt to do via economics what since the french revolution others had tried to do through other modes of analysis philosophical political even literary to understand the ways in which modernity puts civilization at risk and to uncover the means by which we might rescue civilization from modernity s self destructive tendencies i find just two occurrences of the word civilisation in keynes s general theory in chapter 10 at periods when gold is available at suitable depths experience shows that the real wealth of the world increases rapidly and when but little of it is so available our wealth suffers stagnation or decline thus gold mines are of the greatest value and importance to civilisation but do read the whole paragraph and in chapter 23 but here keynes is quoting someone else someone he disagrees with recommended reading the whole chapter keynes uses the word civilisation once in the book based on that one usage it is clear that keynes does see a strong link between civilization and the economy but it would be a mistake to say the general theory is a book about saving civilization it is about fixing the economy it might not be wrong to say the book was motivated by the desire to save civilization though i don t expect keynes said any such thing and it is certainly reasonable to look at all of keynes s work not only the gt to see how he ties...
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