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Text of the page (random words):
xposed pool into two test batches there is a 36 7 chance both batches test negative in which case no further action is necessary and we can save the remaining x 2 test kits the modal outcome though 47 7 is that one of the two test batches tests positive since we have x 2 test kits remaining and x 2 people in the positive batch we can now test each person in the positive batch individually and meanwhile release everyone in the negative batch from quarantine there is also a 15 5 chance that both batches test positive in which case the remaining x 2 test kits will prove inadequate but if we are repeating this procedure often enough we can borrow kits from the of cases where both batches test negative thus with testing capacity of approximately ½ the size of the suspected population to be tested we can test the entire suspected population a batch test individual test protocol will slow down testing as some people will need to be tested twice though their samples only collected once but allow us to greatly economize on testing capacity finally we can use pooled batches to monitor population level infection rates as an indication of when we can ratchet up or ratchet down social distancing without diverting too many tests from clinical or customs applications each batch will either test positive or negative and so the survey will only show whether at least one person in the batch was positive but not how many for instance suppose one collects a thousand nasal swabs from a particular city and divides them into a hundred batches of ten each and then finds that only two of these hundred batches test positive this is equivalent to 98 rate of batches having exactly zero infected test subjects even though the test batch data are dichotomous one can infer the mean of a poisson just from the number of zeroes and so this corresponds to a population mean of about 2 although this sounds equivalent to simply testing individuals the two numbers can diverge considerably for instance if half the batches test positive this implies a population base rate of 70 update on twitter rich davis notes that large batches risk increasing false negatives this is a crucial empirical question i lack the bench science knowledge to provide estimates but experts would need to provide empirical estimates before this system were implemented march 18 2020 at 3 01 pm gr drop list elements if i am doing a simulation in r that generates a list of simulated data objects and then simulates emergent behavior on them unfortunately it chokes on data meeting a certain set of conditions and so i need to kick data like that from the list before running it this is kind of hard to do as if you delete a list element you mess up the indexing since when you kick a list element the list is now shorter my solution is to create a vector of dummies flagging which list elements to kick by indexing in ascending order but then actually kick list elements in descending order note that if the length of the list is used elsewhere in your code that you ll need to update it after running it fwiw the substantive issue in my case is diffusion where some of the networks contain isolates which doesn t work in the region of parameter space which assumes all diffusion occurs through the network in my case deleting these networks is a conservative assumption apologies for posting the code as a screenshot but wordpress seems to really hate recursive loops regardless of whether i use sourcecode or pre tags april 5 2019 at 2 43 pm gr eu migrants gabriel yesterday the guardian published a list of 34 361 migrants who had died attempting to reach or settle within europe the list is originally from united for intercultural action the modal cause of death is shipwreck but the list also includes suicides homicides terrestrial accidents etc i was curious as to the timeline as to when these deaths occurred so i converted the pdf list to a csv and made a graph and a few tables the graph is noisy but nonetheless a few trends jump out deaths rose slowly through the 1990s until 2006 and 2007 then dropped presumably this reflects declining labor demand in the eu there is an isolated jump in 2009 but deaths are low in 2008 and 2010 deaths spike sharply in 2011 especially march of that year which coincides with regime collapse in libya since 2004 gaddafi had been suppressing migrant traffic as part of a secret deal with italy deaths were low again by late 2011 the dog that didn t bark is that migrant deaths were relatively low throughout 2012 and 2013 notwithstanding the syrian civil war in october 2013 there was a major shipwreck after which the italians launched operation mare nostrum in which the italian navy would rescue floundering vessels for the first few months this seems to have been successful as a humanitarian effort but eventually the peltzman effect took to sea and deaths skyrocketed in the summer of 2014 after this spike and the budget strain created by the operation the italians cancelled operation mare nostrum and deaths decreased briefly operation triton replaced mare nostrum which was a a pan european effort and b less ambitious the post mare nostrum death lull ended in spring of 2015 european union states had widely varying migration policies during 2015 with some enacting restrictionist policies and others pro migration policies although there were many migrant deaths in 2015 they were mostly in the spring angela merkel s various pro immigration statements circa september and october of 2015 do not seem to have yielded a moral hazard effect on deaths perhaps because this was almost simultaneous with the eu getting an agreement with turkey to obstruct migrant flows in any case migrant deaths were relatively low in the last quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2016 deaths were very high in march and april of 2016 and overall 2016 was the worst year for deaths in the eu migration crisis in 2017 deaths declined back to 2015 levels being high in both years but not as high as the peak year of 2016 it is too early to describe trends for 2018 but deaths in the first quarter of 2018 are lower than those of any quarter in 2017 http unitedagainstrefugeedeaths eu wp content uploads 2014 06 listofdeathsactual pdf ran pdf through pdf csv translator then stripped out lines with regex for lines not starting w digit cd c users gabri dropbox documents codeandculture eumigrants import delimited listofdeathsactual csv varnames 1 clear keep if regexm found 0 9 drop v7 v30 gen date date found dmy 2019 format date td gen n real number sum n gen week wofd date format week tw gen month mofd date format month tm gen year yofd date save eudeaths dta replace table month c sum n table year c sum n collapse sum n by week sort week lab var n deaths twoway line n week graph export migrants png replace june 21 2018 at 4 11 pm gr 4 comments networks reading list gabriel in response to my review of ferguson s square and the tower several people have asked me what to read to get a good introduction to social networks first of all part i of ferguson s book is actually pretty good i meant it when i said in the review that it s a pretty good intro to social networks and in my first draft i went through and enumerated all the concepts he covers besides betweenness and hierarchy being just a tree network here s the list degree sociometry citation networks homophily triadic closure clustering coefficients mean path length small worlds weak ties as bridges structural holes network externalities social influence opinion leadership the matthew effect scale free networks random graph networks and lattices while i would also cover bonacich centrality dependence and alpha centrality status that s a very good list of topics and ferguson does it well i listed all my issues with the book basically 1 he s not good on history anthropology prior to the early modern era and 2 there s a lot of conceptual slippage between civil society and social networks as a sort of complement in the set theory sense to the state and other hierarchies however it s a very well written book that covers a lot of history including some great historical network studies and the theory section of the book is a good intro to sna for the non specialist anyway so what else would i recommend as the best things to get started with for understanding networks especially for the non sociologist well obviously i wrote the best short and fun introduction my analysis of combat events in the iliad is how i teach undergraduates in economic sociology and they like it gated contexts version with great typesetting and art ungated socarxiv version with the raw data and code this very short and informal paper introduces basic concepts like visualization and nodes vs edges as well as showing the difference between degree centrality raw connections betweenness centrality connections that hold the whole system together and alpha centrality top of the pecking order social networks is as much a method as it is a body of theory so it can be really helpful to play with some virtual tinker toys to get a tactile sense of how it works speed it up slow it down etc for this there s nothing better than playing around in netlogo there s a model library including several network models like giant component erdos renyi random graph preferential attachment small world watts and strogatz ring lattice with random graph elements and team assembly each model in the library has three tabs the first shows a visualization that you can slow down or speed up and tweak in parameter space this is an incredibly user friendly and intuitive way to grok what parameters are doing and how the algorithm under each model thinks a second tab provides a well written summary of the model along with citations to the primary literature the third tab provides the raw code which as you d expect is a dialect of the logo language that anyone born in the late 1970s learned in elementary school i found this language immediately intuitive to read and it only took me two days to write useful code in it but your mileage may vary serious work should probably be done in r specifically igraph and statnet but netlogo is much better for conveying the intuition behind models since this post was inspired by square and the tower and my main gripe about that is slippage between civil society and social networks i should mention that the main way to take a social networks approach to civil society in the literature is to follow putnam in distinguishing between bridging links between groups and bonding links within groups social capital tl dr is don t ask the monkey s paw for your society to have social capital without specifying that you want it to have both kinds if you want to get much beyond that there are some books for a long time wasserman and faust was canonical but it s now pretty out of date there are a few newer books that do a good job of it the main textbook these days is matthew o jackson s social and economic networks it s kind of ironic that the main textbook is written by an economist but if saul of tsarsus could write a plurality of the new testament then i guess an economist can write a canonical textbook on social network analysis it covers a lot of topics including very technical ones i am a big fan of the oxford handbook of analytical sociology analytical sociology isn t quite the same thing as social networks or complex systems but there s a lot of overlap sections i foundations and iii social dynamics cover a lot in social networks and related topics like threshold models one of my pet peeves is assuming networks are the only kind of bottom up social process so i like that ohoas includes stuff on models with less restrictive assumptions about structure which is not just a simplifying assumption but sometimes more accurate i m a big fan of john levi martin s social structures the book divides fairly neatly into a first half that deals with somewhat old school social networks approaches to small group social networks e g kinship moieties and a second half that emphasizes how patronage is a scalable social structure that eventually gets you to the early modern state aside from that there s just a whole lot of really interesting journal articles bearman moody and stovel 2004 maps the sexual network of high school students and discover an implicit taboo on dating your ex s partner s ex smith and papachristos 2016 look at al capone s network and show that you can t conflate different types of ties but neither can you ignore some types only by taking seriously multiple types of ties as distinct can you understand prohibition era organized crime hedström sandell and stern 2000 show that the swedish social democratic party spread much faster than you d expect because it didn t just go from county to county but jumped across the country with traveling activists which is effectively an empirical demonstration of a theoretical model from watts and 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