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description= 3 posts published by Reidar Visser during June 2009;
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Text of the page (random words):
ically controversial psas for now at least while at the same time enhancing the prospect for a much needed boost of iraqi oil production which has been at substandard levels for most of the post 2003 period still it has to be added that the reason many iocs bother to take part in the contest for these somewhat rusty fields at all is the need to position themselves ahead of possible bilateral negotiations with iraq for other fields as well as a second licensing round possibly to be finalised towards the end of 2009 but more likely later that could offer unexplored greenfields with greater potential for serious gains on investments here the psa debate is likely to resurface these positive aspects notwithstanding resistance towards the deals is now becoming stronger in iraq interestingly much of the opposition is quite similar to that which transpired earlier concerning the psa concept the lack of national iraqi control and the scale of sudden foreign involvement in the country s oil sector even if the service contracts in theory should offer the iraqi government more influence than psas many iraqi oil experts are concerned that such a huge quantity of oil is offered for such long lasting contracts 20 years and with relatively few bidders only 35 were pre qualified some have dropped out and there is suspicion that others may have agreed anti competitive measures the process will take place all at once and perhaps most importantly at a time when no meaningful steps have been taken to reconstitute a national iraqi oil company it is feared that even though each individual contract may appear comparatively innocuous their cumulative effect and the sudden emergence of a high number of iocs on the iraqi scene could mean that a fragmentation of national iraqi oil policy becomes the net result what has happened here on the iraqi side relates to politics the first licensing round is the brainchild of the oil minister husayn al shahristani an independent member of the shiite dominated united iraqi alliance uia who is thought to have good relations with the grand ayatollah ali al sistani for the past year or so shahristani and his independent bloc of uia members which also includes figures like khalid al atiyya the deputy parliamentary speaker have been important allies for prime minister nuri al maliki in his endeavour to push through a centralist agenda in iraq which has also involved challenging key partners in the maliki government that favour a federal or even confederal state structure for iraq such as the two biggest kurdish parties kdp and puk as well as the only decentralist shiite party the islamic supreme council of iraq or isci when it comes to oil this struggle has been reflected in the fierce battle over the oil law and particularly the issue of central versus regional control of the signing of contracts with foreign oil companies where shahristani has been the protagonist of the central government view against strong kurdish opposition indeed the very menu on offer in the first licensing round seems to reflect shahristani s desire to centralise control of iraq s oil industry in baghdad as much as possible and thereby emerge as a nationalist with key fields in the south and the north included alongside gas fields in two sunni dominated regions whilst kirkuk oil is not disputed as such due to the already existing status of the relevant fields and hence the clear constitutional role of the central government in administering them the singling out of two oil contracts covering the area near this city seems symbolic in the context of persistent kurdish demands for administrative control of the area in line with this on 18 june in the specific context of the licensing round the iraqi oil ministry revealed its interpretation of centre periphery relations in the non federated parts of iraq in unabashedly centralist terms to a request by the kurdish dominated provincial leadership in kirkuk to be consulted with regard to the prospective contracts affecting the kirkuk area asim jihad the ministry spokesman commented we welcome the comments and point of views from any affected party precisely because it is the goal of the ministry to preserve the higher national interest and put it above any narrow and particularistic interests or in plain english the oil ministry would be delighted to receive a statement of the grievances of the kirkuk provincial government in order that their concerns can be immediately shelved utterly ignored and entirely subordinated to the ministry s own plans in theory then the logical course for shahristani would have been to ensure strong centralised and national control of the oil sector with an iraqi national oil company and its iraqi subsidiaries in the lead and with international companies only as secondary players perhaps avoiding the major iocs altogether and having smaller companies doing service work such as drilling and maintenance in fact a plan along such lines appeared to be in the making in early 2008 in the shape of no bid service contracts with a series of foreign companies albeit major ones however this scheme was abandoned for reasons that still seem unclear but at least partly are thought to relate to shahristani s preference for a more transparent process another reason for the absence of a stronger iraqi role in the current policy could be that shahristani himself a nuclear scientist with no particular background in the oil sector has from the very start been on a collision course with many of the existing entities in iraq s oil sector not least the technocrats of the powerful south oil company soc which historically handled all the fields in the south of the country the soc and the trade unions are traditionally the fiefs of southerners from basra and the far south who often express a distaste for people from the oil deficient centre of iraq telling them what to do and who confusingly perhaps and in a somewhat uneasy coexistence with local regionalist tendencies on many occasions assert their particularisms in a language that is just as centralist and nationalist as that emanating from baghdad shahristani s way of handling this issue has been to attack the soc by trying to remove influential local bosses in particular jabbar luyabi breaking up the soc by establishing new local companies maysan dhi qar has also been under discussion and marginalising it by bringing in foreign hands most conspicuously in the case of the contract with shell for gas flaring in the basra governorate to the soc the avalanche of foreign contracts implied by the first licensing round could be yet another manifestation of this kind of attack by shahristani as the company is offered a continued but probably more fragmented role at the same time though opposition from the other end of the scale decentralisation demands by the kurds is preventing shahristani from making progress on re establishing the iraqi national oil company under tight ministry control because the kurds prefer any centralised entity to be governed by political appointees on a future national oil and gas council and not by ministry officials hence when it comes to the first licensing round through confronting the soc while at the same time refraining from getting an iraqi national oil company back on its feet shahristani has actually moved quite far away from the centralist ideals that form the core of the political programme of the all iraq shiite islamists among the daawa and the uia independents instead on this issue he now resembles an economic liberalist and even a de facto decentraliser his moves have been done mostly in the name of transparency but it seems likely that his concerns about the soc getting too strong may have influenced his decisions too directly or indirectly still it should be added that there are other voices in the oil ministry who agree with him simply because of the need to kick start the iraqi economy and it is notable that the northern counterpart of the soc the north oil company which handles fields such as kirkuk in this case appears to be somewhat less politicised more supportive of the bid round and in some cases has actually acted as a bridge between the central government and kurdish interests the south oil company soc in basra has become the point of gravity for both nationalist and regionalist opposition to the first licensing round to the iocs involved in this the main question today is probably two fold firstly will the new deals meet with any significant opposition in the iraqi parliament secondly if they do emerge unblemished from any confrontation on that scene will there be lingering legitimacy issues connected with the deals that could create extra parliamentary protests or even acts of violence or terrorism against the iocs and their staff in iraq with respect to the parliamentary situation the frontlines are beginning to crystallise for a long time isci was allied with the kurds in attacking shahristani from a decentralist position however the ongoing effort to re establish the uia with a more national appearance a project strongly favoured by isci which lost badly in the january local elections would be hurt by continued opposition along these lines not least because some of shahristani s allies such as khalid al atiyya seem to share isci s preference for making the new uia a shiite led project in everything but the name in this context it does seem significant that some of the support from isci and other uia independents for a vote of no confidence in shahristani appears to have faded over the past months possibly as an attempt at improving sectarian shiite unity behind the new national uia on the other hand parliamentary resistance to the deal has been voiced by both the sadrists quoting the absence of an oil law fadila which has ties both to the soc and regional basra interests but which also spearheaded the recent removal of the trade minister abd al falah al sudani and initially focused on his dealings with foreign companies that got involved in the oil sector nationalists and secularists including hiwar as well as iraqiyya representatives like aliyya nusayf and even some uia members of the independent bloc that would normally support shahristani shuda al musawi is one example shiite independents currently being targeted for co option by the reformers of the uia such as the former oil minister ibrahim bahr al ulum have voiced scepticism too in sum the number of representatives involved on the nationalist side of the opposition is perhaps not terribly impressive in this case maybe adding up to 60 or 70 representatives however the challenge to shahristani is an unholy alliance that also includes kurds who attack him from the opposite perspective and will normally try to derail any project that could strengthen the oil ministry in baghdad among the dozen or so reasons quoted for the failure of the previous attempt in 2008 to bring in the iocs but through more limited contracts and with greater roles for iraqi players was the fierce opposition voiced by pro kurdish democratic politicians in washington including most prominently chuck schumer but also receiving the support of people like john kerry in undisguised terms their press release dated 24 june 2008 is perhaps the clearest articulation of the argument for tripartite soft partition that ever manifested itself in high politics in the us this group referred to tension between shiites sunnis and kurds to argue strongly against a package of deals that would strengthen the central government in baghdad today with 53 kurdish anti centralist votes from kdp and puk on top of the nationalist opposition to the licensing round we are getting closer to the majority threshold of 138 votes that could make things a little more uncomfortable for shahristani than anticipated still it has to be said that the kurds are under more pressure right now and running out of time faster than many outside observers seem to realise often forgotten in the west is the fact that many of the consociational and power sharing aspects of the current iraqi political system simply expire in 2010 because the institution of a tripartite presidency to be elected on a single list and with a two thirds majority was a last minute addition to the 2005 constitution that was only adopted for the first 2005 2009 parliamentary cycle and it was this particular procedure and the demand for a supermajority that made coalition forming so difficult back in 2006 accordingly without any requirement for constitutional reform a somewhat more majoritarian logic in iraqi politics will almost automatically ensue after the next parliamentary elections and it is entirely conceivable that a government could be formed without any representation from the two biggest kurdish parties at all although any such government would probably make a point of reaching out to prominent kurds from outside kdp and puk as in fact maliki is already doing also even if their erstwhile uia allies should end up doing only a symbolic facelift of their list and run it as a shiite list with a purely nominal iraqi orientation the uia kurdish axis is in deep trouble these days because of the decline of isci s fortunes many of the shiite centralisers around maliki have been quite explicit in their rejection of kurdish claims on article 140 about disputed territories and so on it is this context that may lead kurdish politicians to at least think twice before they make up their mind if matters should come to a head in the parliament additionally at least some of the natural members of the nationalist camp including parts of the iraqiyya list have in the past shown liberal inclinations in the economic sphere and may be prepared to sacrifice their centralist ideals for the sake of immediate economic gain for iraq even if this should come at the expense of long term iraqi control even if the deals should pass unopposed by the iraqi parliament the most likely scenario is that they will not be submitted for approval unless a majority of mps demand that they be presented opposition outside parliament at a variety of levels can be expected to persist to begin with it does seem remarkable that three successive heads of the soc the last two of whom kifah numan and fayyad al naama had been specifically chosen by shahristani in an attempt to subvert the independent mindedness of previous soc chiefs and their local connections in basra have publicly come out against the deals the soc in turn is part of a wider conglomerate of local southern interests that talk iraqi nationalism and basra regionalism interchangeably for example the fadila party last year tried to mobilise opposition to the shell deal using both the regionalist argument shell is being used by baghdad to sideline the soc and basra interests as well as the nationalist one iraqi control in general is weakened by the deal whilst the failure of the basra region initiative in ...
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