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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during November 2016;
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other (10), 2011 (10), bluesky (10), facebook (10), ergodicity (10), even (10), also (10), coin (10), probability (10), statistical (10), often (10), statistics (9), nothing (9), models (9), more (9), real (9), can (9), these (9), then (9), kind (9), science (8), will (8), only (8), does (8), ekonomiska (8), assumptions (8), system (8), here (8), while (8), where (8), over (8), really (8), something (8), har (8), uncertainty (8), modern (8), causal (8), exam (8), like (7), rather (7), economist (7), back (7), say (7), approach (7), both (7), methods (7), two (7), individual (7), certain (7), populations (7), analysis (7), market (7), made (7), between (7), peer (7), test (7), 2026 (6), education (6), randomness (6), ett (6), research (6), too (6), much (6), economic (6), should (6), into (6), world (6), sense (6), under (6), averages (6), each (6), them (6), way (6), variables (6), such (6), general (6), however (6), black (6), för (6), off (6), doesn (6), economies (6), question (6), hicks (6), fact (6), wages (6), own (6), work (6), effects (6), syll (5), arbetslöshetssiffran (5), styr (5), being (5), policy (5), mainstream (5), various (5), great (5), come (5), things (5), non (5), die (5), process (5), equilibrium (5), probabilistic (5), gets (5), course (5), life (5), cannot (5), think (5), about (5), result (5), different (5), another (5), man (5), men (5), economy (5), framework (5), expectations (5), keynesian (5), make (5), neoclassical (5), predictions (5), without (5), paper (5), data (5), itself (5), empirical (5), econometric (5), now (4), varia (4), fred (4), follow (4), cartwright (4), finding (4), profession (4), mathematical (4), said (4), thinking (4), who (4), elite (4), its (4), around (4), added (4), because (4), rolling (4), first (4), 000 (4), example (4), little (4), always (4), stationary (4), comes (4), choose (4), problem (4), particular (4), good (4), take (4), party (4), newspaper (4), entire (4), find (4), importance (4), going (4), inferences (4), idea (4), period (4), park (4), questions (4), lot (4), sig (4), sätt (4), mer (4), klagomål (4), bättre (4), politik (4), given (4), money (4), actually (4), confidence (4), building (4), based (4), social (4), used (4), suggest (4), prices (4), reasons (4), whether (4), demand (4), lead (4), could (4), courage (4), ways (4), explanations (4), mathematics (4), politiska (4), fronesis (4), still (4), rcts (4), researchers (4), choice (4), support (4), possible (4), assumption (4), name (3), write (3), comment (3), view (3), recent (3), especially (3), ones (3), single (3), failed (3), crisis (3), haldane (3), well (3), thought (3), lost (3), using (3), reflect (3), according (3), zero (3), wealth (3), sample (3), eventually (3), give (3), answer (3), rolled (3), divided (3), once (3), changes (3), conditions (3), long (3), run (3), function (3), equal (3), expectational (3), heads (3), either (3), chosen (3), although (3), important (3), fundamental (3), samuelson (3), 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m model however much of the discussions we have in macroeconomics is about timing and the speed of relative adjustments of quantities commodity prices and wages on which is lm doesn t have much to say 2 is lm forces to a large extent the analysis into a static comparative equilibrium setting that doesn t in any substantial way reflect the processual nature of what takes place in historical time to me keynes s analysis is in fact inherently dynamic at least in the sense that it was based on real historic time and not the logical ergodic non entropic time concept used in most neoclassical model building and as niels bohr used to say thinking is not the same as just being logical 3 is lm reduces interaction between real and nominal entities to a rather constrained interest mechanism which is far too simplistic for analyzing complex financialised modern market economies 4 is lm gives no place for real money but rather trivializes the role that money and finance play in modern market economies as hicks commenting on his is lm construct had it in 1980 one did not have to bother about the market for loanable funds from the perspective of modern monetary theory it s obvious that is lm to a large extent ignores the fact that money in modern market economies is created in the process of financing and not as is lm depicts it something that central banks determine 5 is lm is typically set in a current values numéraire framework that definitely downgrades the importance of expectations and uncertainty and a fortiori gives too large a role for interests as ruling the roost when it comes to investments and liquidity preferences in this regard it is actually as bad as all the modern microfounded neo walrasian new keynesian models where keynesian genuine uncertainty and expectations aren t really modelled especially the two dimensionality of keynesian uncertainty both a question of probability and confidence has been impossible to incorporate into this framework which basically presupposes people following the dictates of expected utility theory high probability may mean nothing if the agent has low confidence in it reducing uncertainty to risk implicit in most analyses building on is lm models is nothing but hand waving according to keynes we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty not quantifiable stochastic risk which often forces us to make decisions based on anything but rational expectations keynes rather thinks that we base our expectations on the confidence or weight we put on different events and alternatives to keynes expectations are a question of weighing probabilities by degrees of belief beliefs that often have preciously little to do with the kind of stochastic probabilistic calculations made by the rational agents as modeled by modern social sciences and often we simply do not know 6 is lm not only ignores genuine uncertainty but also the essentially complex and cyclical character of economies and investment activities speculation endogenous money labour market conditions and the importance of income distribution and as axel leijonhufvud so eloquently notes on is lm economics one doesn t find many inklings of the adaptive dynamics behind the explicit statics most of the insights on dynamic coordination problems that made keynes write general theory are lost in the translation into the is lm framework given this it s difficult not agree with fine and dimakou the is lm approach doesn t capture keynes approach to the economy other than in name share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky endogenous growth theory a crash course 24 nov 2016 at 17 11 posted in economics 2 comments årets dumstrut i malmös politik 23 nov 2016 at 22 26 posted in education school comments off on årets dumstrut i malmös politik malmö klagomålen på den kommunala förskolan har mer än fördubblats de senaste två åren men det oroar inte rose marie carlsson s ordförande i förskolenämnden en ökning av klagomålen behöver inte betyda att det blivit sämre tvärtom säger hon omorganisationen 2013 då förskolan fick egen nämnd och förvaltning innebar även ett nytt sätt att arbeta med klagomålshantering det är enklare nu för vårdnadshavare att lämna in klagomål bland annat kan det göras direkt på malmö stads hemsida säger rose marie carlsson rose marie carlsson menar att ökningen av antalet klagomål egentligen är något positivt det bevisar att klagomålshanteringen fungerar bättre än innan omorganisationen 2013 man måste komma ihåg att vi gått från tio stadsdelar med tio olika sätt att hantera dessa frågor till ett enda sätt att arbeta klagomålshanteringen är en del av vårt kvalitetsarbete och vi arbetar mer systematiskt nu och följer upp klagomål på ett helt annat sätt än tidigare vi har bättre kontroll och tillsyn nu jag är mer bekymrad över de enheter där det inte anmälts några klagomål där kan man misstänka bristande rutiner säger hon markus celander och detta grodors plums och ankors plask ska man behöva läsa år 2016 herre du milde man tager sig för pannan sällan eller aldrig har väl ett så urbota löjligt försök att prata bort kritik hörts share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky what is ergodicity 23 nov 2016 at 10 27 posted in economics 2 comments why are election polls often inaccurate why is racism wrong why are your assumptions often mistaken the answers to all these questions and to many others have a lot to do with the non ergodicity of human ensembles many scientists agree that ergodicity is one of the most important concepts in statistics so what is it suppose you are concerned with determining what the most visited parks in a city are one idea is to take a momentary snapshot to see how many people are this moment in park a how many are in park b and so on another idea is to look at one individual or few of them and to follow him for a certain period of time e g a year then you observe how often the individual is going to park a how often he is going to park b and so on thus you obtain two different results one statistical analysis over the entire ensemble of people at a certain moment in time and one statistical analysis for one person over a certain period of time the first one may not be representative for a longer period of time while the second one may not be representative for all the people the idea is that an ensemble is ergodic if the two types of statistics give the same result many ensembles like the human populations are not ergodic the importance of ergodicity becomes manifest when you think about how we all infer various things how we draw some conclusion about something while having information about something else for example one goes once to a restaurant and likes the fish and next time he goes to the same restaurant and orders chicken confident that the chicken will be good why is he confident or one observes that a newspaper has printed some inaccurate information at one point in time and infers that the newspaper is going to publish inaccurate information in the future why are these inferences ok while others such as more crimes are committed by black persons than by white persons therefore each individual black person is not to be trusted are not ok the answer is that the ensemble of articles published in a newspaper is more or less ergodic while the ensemble of black people is not at all ergodic if one searches how many mistakes appear in an entire newspaper in one issue and then searches how many mistakes one news editor does over time one finds the two results almost identical not exactly but nonetheless approximately equal however if one takes the number of crimes committed by black people in a certain day divided by the total number of black people and then follows one random picked black individual over his life one would not find that e g each month this individual commits crimes at the same rate as the crime rate determined over the entire ensemble thus one cannot use ensemble statistics to properly infer what is and what is not probable that a certain individual will do or take an even clearer example in an election each party gets some percentage of votes party a gets a party b gets b and so on however this does not mean that over the course of their lives each individual votes with party a in a of elections with b in b of elections and so on a similar problem is faced by scientists in general when they are trying to infer some general statement from various particular experiments when is a generalization correct and when it isn t the answer concerns ergodicity if the generalization is done towards an ergodic ensemble then it has a good chance of being correct vlad tarko paul samuelson once famously claimed that the ergodic hypothesis is essential for advancing economics from the realm of history to the realm of science but is it really tenable to assume as samuelson and most other mainstream economists that ergodicity is essential to economics in this video ole peters shows why ergodicity is such an important concept for understanding the deep fundamental flaws of mainstream economics sometimes ergodicity is mistaken for stationarity but although all ergodic processes are stationary they are not equivalent let s say we have a stationary process that does not guarantee that it is also ergodic the long run time average of a single output function of the stationary process may not converge to the expectation of the corresponding variables and so the long run time average may not equal the probabilistic expectational average say we have two coins where coin a has a probability of 1 2 of coming up heads and coin b has a probability of 1 4 of coming up heads we pick either of these coins with a probability of 1 2 and then toss the chosen coin over and over again now let h1 h2 be either one or zero as the coin comes up heads or tales this process is obviously stationary but the time averages h1 hn n converges to 1 2 if coin a is chosen and 1 4 if coin b is chosen both these time averages have a probability of 1 2 and so their expectational average is 1 2 x 1 2 1 2 x 1 4 3 8 which obviously is not equal to 1 2 or 1 4 the time averages depend on which coin you happen to choose while the probabilistic expectational average is calculated for the whole system consisting of both coin a and coin b in an ergodic system time is irrelevant and has no direction nothing changes in any significant way at most you will see some short lived fluctuations an ergodic system is indifferent to its initial conditions if you re start it after a little while it always falls into the same equilibrium behavior for example say i gave 1 000 people one die each had them roll their die once added all the points rolled and divided by 1 000 that would be a finite sample average approaching the ensemble average as i include more and more people now say i rolled a die 1 000 times in a row added all the points rolled and divided by 1 000 that would be a finite time average approaching the time average as i keep rolling that die one implication of ergodicity is that ensemble averages will be the same as time averages in the first case it is the size of the sample that eventually removes the randomness from the system in the second case it is the time that i m devoting to rolling that removes randomness but both methods give the same answer within errors in this sense rolling dice is an ergodic system i say in this sense because if we bet on the results of rolling a die wealth does not follow an ergodic process under typical betting rules if i go bankrupt i ll stay bankrupt so the time average of my wealth will approach zero as time passes even though the ensemble average of my wealth may increase a precondition for ergodicity is stationarity so there can be no growth in an ergodic system ergodic systems are zero sum games things slosh around from here to there and back but nothing is ever added invented created or lost no branching occurs in an ergodic system no decision has any consequences because sooner or later we ll end up in the same situation again and can reconsider the key is that most systems of interest to us including finance are non ergodic ole peters share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky mainstream economics sacrificing realism at the altar of mathematical purity 22 nov 2016 at 18 05 posted in economics 6 comments economists are too detached from the real world and have failed to learn from the financial crisis insisting on using mathematical models which do not reflect reality according to the bank of england s chief economist andy haldane the public has lost faith in economists since the credit crunch he said but the profession has failed to thoroughly re examine its failings to come up with a new model of operating the various reports into the economic costs of the uk leaving the eu most likely fell at the same hurdle they are written in the main by the elite for the elite said mr haldane writing the foreword to a new book called the econocracy the perils of leaving economics to the experts the chief economist said that the great depression of the 1930s resulted in a major overhaul of economic thinking led by john maynard keynes who emerged as the most influential economist of the twentieth century but the recent financial crisis and slow recovery has not yet prompted this great re thinking for now economists need to focus on reviewing their models accepting a diversify of thought rather than one solid orthodoxy and on communicating more clearly economists should focus on other disciplines as well as maths he said mainstream economic models have sacrificed too much realism at the altar of mathematical purity their various simplifying assumptions have served aesthetic rather than practical ends mr haldane wrote as a profession economics has become too much of a methodological monoculture and that lack of intellectual diversity cost the profession dear when the single crop failed spectacularly during the crisis tim wallace the telegraph share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in 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