Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
the, july, 2009, on, of, trading, 27, to, goldman, and, zero, hedge, new, blog, twitter, updates, org, hft, flash, end, weekend, thursday, december, 16, 2010, tuesday, 28, monday, sunday, 26, saturday, 25, friday, 24, site, got, tips, feedburner, feedcount, subscribe, via, email, archive, my, list, about, me, please, use, zerohedge, moving, ron, insana, years, securities, recalls, aka, forced, squeeze, go, nyse, claims, it, does, not, engage, in, var, exemption, question, escalates, schumer, letter, mary, shapiro, ed, canaday, requirements, for, high, frequency, oversight, paul, tudor, jones, exposed, etf, gloves, are, off, daily, highlights, 09, frontrunning, recession, some, thoughts, by, john, mauldin, guest, post, 30, year, review, ahead, short, term, auctions, q2, adv, gdp, aug, nfp, reading, jpm, carl, carrie, algorithmic, chart, sachs, boiling, point, nyt, max, keiser, model,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (299), and (150), that (76), this (63), for (59), with (52), are (48), new (31), #trading (30), you (29), not (28), will (28), view (27), but (27), from (27), goldman (26), about (24), market (24), post (23), has (22), our (21), comments (21), sphere (21), related (21), content (21), tyler (20), durden (20), bookmark (20), some (20), posted (20), have (19), more (19), china (19), high (17), very (17), sachs (17), their (17), hedge (16), they (16), what (15), zero (15), time (14), than (14), securities (13), much (13), who (13), direct (13), edge (13), can (13), risk (13), there (13), billion (13), 2009 (12), its (12), out (12), most (12), when (12), frequency (12), into (12), may (11), all (11), liquidity (11), year (11), zerohedge (10), one (10), assets (10), copper (10), any (9), end (9), media (9), july (9), here (9), inc (9), was (9), flash (9), trade (9), been (9), over (9), markets (9), growth (9), john (9), chinese (9), now (9), which (9), funds (9), lending (9), respondents (9), please (8), your (8), com (8), exchange (8), capital (8), group (8), stock (8), how (8), other (8), said (8), between (8), readers (8), letter (8), think (8), next (8), would (8), going (8), long (8), credit (7), use (7), home (7), posts (7), those (7), just (7), recent (7), firm (7), off (7), piece (7), also (7), part (7), earnings (7), bloomberg (7), term (7), rising (7), dollar (7), dollars (7), programs (7), financial (6), blog (6), fund (6), had (6), street (6), investors (6), schumer (6), two (6), carl (6), really (6), look (6), don (6), were (6), real (6), being (6), exchanges (6), ubs (6), rally (6), money (6), short (6), does (6), current (6), buy (6), prices (6), forced (6), profit (6), regulatory (6), blogger (6), own (5), economic (5), bubble (5), org (5), www (5), could (5), even (5), these (5), citadel (5), should (5), hft (5), wall (5), again (5), point (5), another (5), continue (5), get (5), take (5), based (5), few (5), wsj (5), ahead (5), numbers (5), order (5), higher (5), unemployment (5), banks (5), debt (5), june (5), recession (5), full (5), computers (5), orders (5), information (5), var (5), site (4), sales (4), reader (4), complete (4), bear (4), trader (4), global (4), housing (4), big (4), world (4), while (4), still (4), make (4), latest (4), his (4), quarter (4), currently (4), company (4), program (4), following (4), relevant (4), york (4), great (4), whether (4), read (4), good (4), equities (4), players (4), industry (4), want (4), models (4), types (4), algorithmic (4), them (4), period (4), contributing (4), huge (4), etfs (4), well (4), shares (4), simon (4), holding (4), million (4), gdp (4), job (4), losses (4), stuff (4), recovery (4), claims (4), quite (4), first (4), then (4), notice (4), seem (4), put (4), many (4), equity (4), old (4), form (4), small (4), story (4), falls (4), half (4), question (4), provide (4), only (4), rises (4), net (4), total (4), inverse (4), leveraged (4), such (4), either (4), portfolio (4), exemption (4), nyse (4), survey (4), unwind (4), callan (4), front (4), traders (4), nothing (3), purchases (3), follow (3), twitter (3), updates (3), things (3), analysis (3), option (3), across (3), alpha (3), business (3), 2010 (3), email (3), subscribe (3), seems (3), earlier (3), times (3), products (3), presentation (3), knight (3), derivatives (3), morgan (3), largest (3), each (3), made (3), specific (3), debate (3), class (3), labels (3), charles (3), weeks (3), important (3), become (3), major (3), provided (3), develop (3), chart (3), initial (3), transformation (3), years (3), income (3), commodity (3), several (3), crisis (3), deal (3), emerging (3), volatility (3), volume (3), today (3), see (3), basis (3), longer (3), greater (3), electronic (3), scale (3), advantage (3), top (3), below (3), issue (3), capacity (3), european (3), around (3), against (3), general (3), infrastructure (3), last (3), pay (3), package (3), fast (3), bernanke (3), trades (3), need (3), weekend (3), system (3), etc (3), true (3), seasonal (3), because (3), 000 (3), jobs (3), month (3), keep (3), hours (3), week (3), give (3), almost (3), rise (3), interesting (3), commodities (3), mostly (3), lot (3), likely (3), leave (3), maid (3), rational (3), using (3), companies (3), feel (3), value (3), reserve (3), better (3), back (3), thoughts (3), subject (3), won (3), happening (3), demand (3), due (3), coming (3), buying (3), common (3), same (3), less (3), case (3), reason (3), believe (3), line (3), existing (3), looking (3), loan (3), jump (3), down (3), little (3), david (3), rosenberg (3), hope (3), topic (3), associates (3), bank (3), aetna (3), since (3), customers (3), percent (3), management (3), others (3), questions (3), available (3), compliments (3), running (3), among (3), regulators (3), lent (3), cash (3), collateral (3), after (3), flow (3), faster (3), manager (3), ron (3), website (3), anywhere (2), investing (2), paul (2), armageddon (2), forum (2), economics (2), bearish (2), news (2), sense (2), trend (2), mutual (2), derivative (2), picture (2), returns (2), list (2), 108 (2), feedburner (2), via (2), tips (2), got (2), search (2), older (2), marla (2), come (2), andrew (2), author (2), touches (2), comparable (2), find (2), paradigm (2), explicitly (2), course (2), interest (2), providers (2), mention (2), levels (2), survival (2), impossible (2), advisor (2), model (2), max (2), keiser (2), yes (2), owned (2), third (2), 2007 (2), stake (2), ise (2), elp (2), check (2), glossary (2), campaign (2), ongoing (2), nature (2), return (2), looks (2), action (2), lawyers (2), nyt (2), pre (2), greg (2), tusar (2), vocal (2), addition (2), head (2), becomes (2), marketplace (2), quickly (2), competitive (2), schedule (2), firms (2), commentary (2), fee (2), attempt (2), focus (2), senator (2), transparency (2), critical (2), pertinent (2), solicit (2), jpm (2), say (2), both (2), statement (2), happens (2), recently (2), cost (2), price (2), timing (2), position (2), generation (2), side (2), used (2), notably (2), technology (2), surprisingly (2), joe (2), specialist (2), hey (2), google (2), maybe (2), where (2), consequences (2), windows (2), seeing (2), larger (2), probably (2), far (2), factors (2), invested (2), factor (2), clearly (2), former (2), carrie (2), banker (2), reuters (2), california (2), worried (2), cool (2), alan (2), steel (2), raise (2), reading (2), structural (2), logic (2), rehash (2), overall (2), lower (2), rates (2), utilization (2), falling (2), write (2), indeed (2), talks (2), actually (2), adjustments (2), manufacturing (2), layoffs (2), came (2), growing (2), required (2), per (2), noted (2), above (2), start (2), turn (2), regular (2), argument (2), people (2), spending (2), green (2), shoots (2), second (2), continued (2), until (2), sees (2), blue (2), future (2), truly (2), beta (2), bull (2), previously (2), asset (2), flows (2), quick (2), sectors (2), through (2), sell (2), selling (2), saying (2), smart (2), profits (2), card (2), game (2), called (2), past (2), decade (2), sent (2), stuck (2), trillion (2), without (2), hurting (2), exports (2), exposure (2), theme (2), exploring (2), know (2), hunt (2), word (2), potential (2), metals (2), supply (2), doing (2), metal (2), response (2), cathode (2), outside (2), reporting (2), example (2), note (2), experts (2), something (2), told (2), phd (2), economy (2), transition (2), before (2), expected (2), created (2), bad (2), bottom (2), miracle (2), confidence (2), equivalent (2), large (2), consumer (2), given (2), lead (2), pretty (2), mauldin (2), attribution (2), free (2), forward (2), preserved (2), bnn (2), radioshack (2), verizon (2), cuts (2), outlook (2), investment (2), frontrunning (2), ltd (2), fortune (2), brands (2), corp (2), american (2), cit (2), jones (2), reports (2), added (2), expenses (2), pressure (2), declines (2), drops (2), spin (2), hopes (2), day (2), monday (2), ago (2), traded (2), able (2), additional (2), tube (2), months (2), believes (2), oversight (2), canaday (2), control (2), requirements (2), concern (2), ability (2), mary (2), shapiro (2), public (2), ecn (2), taxpayer (2), taleb (2), stated (2), shareholders (2), unsecured (2), government (2), received (2), federal (2), directly (2), difference (2), regimes (2), sec (2), larry (2), engage (2), pervasive (2), recalling (2), number (2), undergoing (2), controlled (2), reduce (2), risks (2), according (2), desks (2), aka (2), ins (2), thus (2), squeeze (2), aim (2), illegal (2), customer (2), placed (2), everyone (2), dark (2), pool (2), prefer (2), like (2), unfairly (2), clients (2), press (2), touch (2), insana (2), surprised (2), yet (2), didn (2), move (2), features (2), issues (2), skip (2), disclaimer, contained, constitutes, advice, recommendation, solely, discretion, profile, owning, kedrosky, infectious, greed, 4best4worst, angry, forex, bond, yield, shadow, bankers, reit, wrecks, contempt, urbandigs, cents, mish, worth, alphaville, dealbook, curve, finalternatives, dealbreaker, finem, respice, folly, daneric, elliott, waves, writedowns, naked, capitalism, implode, dribble, shanky, tech, abnormal, seeking, insider, 107, 110, 112, 115, 101, 117, 113, 102, 118, 2657, archive, delivered, enter, address, feedcount, lijit, atom, opportune, gluck, starkly, points, usefully, acute, adhd, tad, palatable, hehe, kidding, context, epic, shift, occurring, agrees, uncharted, inherent, conflicts, nexus, mainstream, funding, bloated, leverage, cds, 20pts, upfront, artificially, tight, legacy, increasingly, friday, ruminations, takes, curious, angle, attack, independent, broker, dealer, consortium, includes, international, originally, sole, owner, spun, shareholder, followed, investments, additionally, odd, eye, hurricane, reported, ownership, structure, anybody, topics, articles, itself, acknowledging, link, recognizes, tremendous, contribution, readership, once, highlighting, interactive, dominant, crowdsourcing, recap, picking, pockets, non, club, guys, generate, sharpe, someone, explain, works, consensus, sure, lawsuit, boiling, perspectives, abnormally, aspect, monitoring, fantastic, partnership, mathew, andresen, volumes, grown, significantly, expect, destination, center, virtue, innovative, pricing, managing, director, purchased, services, categorize, flashtradinggate, equality, undoubtedly, miss, connections, insight, invite, send, emails, input, flashtrading, saturday, curiously, left, parting, love, biggest, couple, otc, fixed, begging, ripe, genesis, completely, agree, presenting, extended, ideas, matter, six, sigma, event, typically, easily, moves, contagion, correlation, effect, massive, science, tactics, particularly, talk, sensitive, happened, hasn, opened, eyes, perhaps, different, animal, tomorrow, reflect, consideration, kinds, anomalies, yearly, impact, twin, pillars, discusses, key, downside, disappears, saluzzi, attest, chagrin, irene, aldridge, away, seconds, fight, monopoly, ocurring, materially, firefox, bundled, christine, varney, space, beginnings, fallout, clear, winners, permanently, sustain, preeminent, player, rungs, undiscussed, industrial, oligopoly, economies, advantages, select, themselves, heavily, throughput, allocations, minor, arbitrage, indexes, adrs, pairs, interlisted, automation, auto, working, product, development, client, solutions, none, nasty, words, podcast, transcript, light, why, reform, movement, met, pushback, brokers, telcos, algotradingpodcast, quoted, caused, johnson, tablott, salon, phibro, hall, citi, hostage, 100, probe, targets, visits, officials, budget, woes, businessweek, reality, homes, genius, collapse, deconstructed, abelson, worse, barron, executive, beaten, death, man, spreading, false, rumors, harman, textron, takeovers, fooled, najarian, found, dead, suicide, salaries, lennar, signals, fleeting, buildling, buyers, flee, roubini, preventer, draw, spot, marshalling, must, submitted, bougearel, guest, review, auctions, adv, aug, nfp, tacking, scenario, hoping, recoup, burst, surprise, ruminate, covering, persistent, incomes, wages, savings, lows, foreclosures, deleveraging, shaped, recoveries, throw, moody, estimates, 400, weak, shapes, aside, fact, smaller, normally, summer, adjustment, assumes, normal, automobile, distorting, population, 130, 150, continuing, suggest, losing, least, 300, jobless, worked, low, work, employers, employees, expand, workers, comical, simplicity, aren, employed, unemployed, spend, means, forget, revised, seasonally, adjusted, dennis, kneale, belief, power, smiley, face, 2003, took, meanwhile, telling, skies, marvel, weakest, names, rallying, sustained, richard, russell, removed, standing, picked, assumed, disagree, involved, hell, defines, agenda, overseas, acquisition, including, hands, tangent, implications, inflation, protected, hedged, roof, discuss, apparently, decided, pass, parties, seriously, did, anyone, massively, conspiracy, theory, never, acquire, productive, figure, attention, paid, played, kids, loser, ended, electrons, vendor, financing, physical, natural, resources, countries, joke, although, west, worry, right, treasuries, agency, paper, thereby, forcing, renminbi, pursuing, policies, harmful, therefore, providing, specifics, original, assertions, asserts, expert, covers, serious, impacts, aware, drop, happen, glut, onto, individuals, institutions, divorced, store, updated, emphasis, mine, staggering, tonnes, sitting, punt, speculative, activity, seen, easy, merchants, ship, warehouse, fuelling, sentiments, soaring, draining, rest, quote, length, travels, frequently, ask, booming, historically, useful, ivy, league, degree, done, attaching, analogies, situation, fundamental, aligns, april, changed, legs, aggregate, supported, employment, result, pile, negative, simple, confuse, sustainable, united, states, country, suffers, overcapacity, comes, borrowing, hundreds, decisions, fly, inspire, nearly, completed, building, shanghai, collapsed, poor, quality, construction, estate, wonder, shot, alone, friend, vitaliy, katsenelson, written, perceptive, essay, magazine, talking, foreign, policy, flowing, already, problem, portfolios, frame, severe, problems, sharply, fallen, unlikely, near, level, consumption, 2006, stimulus, might, bubbles, amazing, surface, continually, funk, strong, deeper, include, quotes, along, cornelius, collaboration, pleased, release, attached, badly, needed, perspective, sided, wrong, headed, purposes, promote, informed, discourse, enthusiastically, feedback, licensed, creative, commons, excerpt, freely, chief, economist, strategist, gluskin, sheff, sunday, deutsche, weekly, wells, fargo, revenue, marketwatch, slides, postcards, plunges, fares, ryanair, yields, highest, 1994, aid, record, crunch, merk, deux, loans, shrink, fear, lingers, europe, braced, defaults, feared, depression, tenacious, evil, mag, schlumberger, slb, deluxe, dlx, foot, locker, amazon, amzn, express, axp, bristol, myers, squibb, bmy, airtran, holdings, aai, vfc, nabors, industries, nbr, unitedhealth, unh, boeing, rating, actions, egan, volkswagen, plans, rights, purchase, porsche, virgin, australia, airline, launches, raising, 189m, 2nd, trims, pearson, raises, guidance, ftse, msft, bows, gives, users, choice, web, browsers, julius, baer, 204, managed, slump, honeywell, 723m, 450m, weakness, segment, ericsson, nortel, north, wireless, unit, 13b, eastman, chem, beats, eps, revs, fell, 25b, beers, qtrly, uncut, diamonds, improving, corning, 611m, citigroup, pressing, honor, 100m, arcelormittal, stainless, est, puts, pharmacy, benefit, block, futures, open, update, shrank, slower, pace, signaling, abated, oil, asia, fuel, german, amid, stable, says, iceland, entry, simpler, shorter, euro, 4263, morning, 4th, driven, sentiment, led, airlines, gets, ipo, applicants, 1st, launch, nears, asian, further, nikkei, hits, mark, dropped, 346, commercial, forecast, advertisers, getting, cheaper, television, commercials, administration, help, narrow, gap, boost, daily, highlights, hopefully, ishares, direxion, defense, contact, effective, suspending, offering, liquidate, positions, execute, rejected, bets, upgraded, chips, cant, handle, calculations, way, fried, behind, scenes, etf, gloves, hat, tip, series, mythical, finally, frontal, insights, making, legend, paleolithic, dominated, monochrome, pcs, municipal, library, every, documentary, tudor, exposed, giving, chance, offer, accompanying, obligation, appropriate, appended, damage, disclose, integrity, compromised, insiders, entire, strategies, expense, whatever, remains, lost, faith, fair, efficient, monopolists, usurped, personal, speculator, funded, piggy, rather, battery, best, nassim, dramatically, understate, utility, tools, 254, consisting, preferred, 191, borrowings, percentage, facilities, fdic, guaranteed, indirectly, adhere, standard, rules, imposed, ordinary, differ, regime, granting, approved, sufficiently, conservative, justify, reasons, casue, alarm, yesterday, broad, appears, congressmen, grayson, willing, drive, sharp, stick, deep, hornets, nest, demanding, explanation, exactly, sending, ben, regard, fed, escalates, interview, leibowitz, indicate, slp, provides, advance, ala, regardless, escalation, wars, starting, especially, toothless, clueless, middle, unknown, significant, amount, widely, permitted, advanced, balance, consists, artificial, rolling, insane, foolhardy, success, buyins, ecns, surveyed, plan, sponsor, organizations, corporate, comprised, majority, mid, sized, hold, nineteen, remaining, split, mega, properly, executed, involves, incurring, loss, restricting, transactions, wanted, changes, rank, fine, tuning, reinvestment, guidelines, priority, reflects, reinvesting, custodian, provider, three, process, minimize, participating, trying, push, disclosure, released, san, francisco, consulting, state, northern, trust, bony, numerous, discussing, speculation, assorted, phenomenon, factual, community, leaves, shorts, mercy, lenders, tarp, recipients, beneficiaries, generically, moment, creatingartificial, purchasing, repo, recalls, journal, taking, computerized, known, algorithm, allegedly, hook, suss, incoming, lightning, speed, critics, argue, individual, distinct, disadvantage, variety, proximity, allows, osmotic, transfer, asking, ban, phony, fool, participants, entering, gain, qualifies, practice, else, illegally, jumping, paying, preferential, treatment, area, legitimate, telegraph, telephone, ticker, handheld, devices, style, black, box, sophisticated, simply, whose, executives, run, advised, merger, archipelago, formerly, portion, combined, entity, leeds, kellogg, board, floor, greatest, seats, concerned, emergence, easier, dreaded, speculators, lose, access, profitable, prestigious, speer, nyx, edt, distraction, totally, lump, definition, derogatory, erudite, yourself, learn, thing, ecstatic, pleasantly, sic, realize, editor, title, stevie, digress, honesty, correct, jim, failed, experiment, thestreet, cramer, kibbosh, cnbc, dear, fans, served, reached, limitations, section, initiated, testing, fully, functional, beginning, flexible, architecture, allowed, brand, launching, extremely, excited, decides, shut, repository, roughly, 600, january, uploaded, backup, blogsite, unpredictable, failure, wish, analyses, presentations, opinions, kindly, invited, visit, hospitable, saddens, phase, project, farewell, blogspot, contributors, rss, feed, moving, tuesday, experiencing, technical, resolve, thursday, december, enough, timeline, rate, sidebar, main,
Text of the page (random words):
information at the expense of other investors full letter here schumer letter sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments goldman s ed canaday on the requirements for high frequency trading oversight posted by tyler durden at 10 05 am damage control or is goldman a little worried what direct edge may disclose from the appended schumer piece on bloomberg goldman sachs believes high frequency trading should have an accompanying obligation to provide liquidity and be subject to appropriate regulatory oversight canaday said ed we have been giving you the chance to provide your side of the story for months please take us up on the offer sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments paul tudor jones exposed posted by tyler durden at 10 04 am the mythical trader the documentary is finally available on you tube relevant full frontal insights on the making of a hedge fund legend and a paleolithic market dominated by monochrome pcs what no bloomberg running to the municipal library for that 10 k and no flash orders frontrunning every trade part 1 and related series 2 7 are on you tube hat tip j m sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments the etf gloves are off posted by tyler durden at 9 21 am bearish bets made impossible compliments of ubs either that or ubs recently upgraded with i7 chips of course computers just cant handle the basis calculations either way is something very fried with etfs going on behind the scenes important notice inverse leveraged and inverse leveraged exchange traded funds are no longer available for new or additional purchases at ubs effective july 27 2009 ubs is suspending the offering of inverse leveraged and inverse leveraged exchange traded funds etfs you will no longer be able to make new or additional purchases and will only be able to liquidate current positions through ubs at this time any attempt to execute a trade of such etfs will be rejected please contact your financial advisor with questions hopefully ishares and direxion have some good class action defense lawyers sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments daily highlights 7 27 09 posted by tyler durden at 8 53 am administration looking for chinese help to narrow trade gap and boost us jobs advertisers are getting cheaper rates than a year ago on television commercials aetna 2q profit dropped to 346 6m due to greater commercial expenses and cuts full year forecast asian markets were higher monday on hopes for further earnings recovery nikkei hits 10 000 mark china s new small company stock exchange gets 108 ipo applicants on 1st day as launch nears china shares up for 4th day on high liquidity driven sentiment led by metals and airlines euro rises to 1 4263 in european morning trade as investors continue to leave dollar eu says iceland s entry talks will likely be simpler shorter than others german consumer confidence rises amid lower prices and stable job market oil rises above 68 in asia as economic recovery hopes fuel 3 week rally us economy probably shrank at slower pace signaling recession abated us stock futures point to higher open ahead of earnings new home sales update aetna inc puts its pharmacy benefit management business on the block arcelormittal exploring a jv spin off of its stainless steel business est 3b citigroup trader is pressing it to honor a 2009 pay package that could total 100m corning s june net income declines from 3 2b to 611m de beers qtrly net drops 99 but sees sales of uncut diamonds improving eastman chem beats by 0 15 posts q2 eps of 0 86 revs fell 31 7 to 1 25b ericsson to buy nortel s north american wireless unit for 1 13b fortune brands net falls 27 on continued weakness in home products segment honeywell s june net income declines from 723m to 450m julius baer profit falls 47 to 204 3 million as managed assets slump msft bows to pressure gives european users of windows choice of web browsers pearson raises earnings guidance for 2009 shares rise 9 percent to top ftse radioshack 2nd quarter profit rises to 48 8 million as company trims expenses verizon added 1 1m customers in q2 vs 1 4m added by at t in the same period virgin blue of australia airline reports losses launches capital raising of 189m volkswagen plans to raise up to 5 7b via rights issue to fund purchase of porsche recent egan jones rating actions schlumberger ltd slb fortune brands inc fo deluxe corp dlx foot locker inc fl amazon com inc amzn american express co axp cit group inc cit bristol myers squibb co bmy airtran holdings inc aai vf corp vfc nabors industries ltd nbr unitedhealth group inc unh boeing co the ba sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments frontrunning july 27 posted by tyler durden at 8 48 am tenacious g is goldman sachs evil or really good ny mag bernanke feared a second great depression he may still very well get it wsj europe braced for rising credit card defaults ft loans by u s banks shrink as fear lingers wsj credit crunch part deux merk mutual funds real yields highest since 1994 aid record debt sales bloomberg ryanair plunges on outlook for fares earnings bloomberg earnings not what they seem investment postcards aetna again cuts 2009 outlook profit slides wsj verizon profit falls 21 wsj same old story from radioshack revenue down earnings up marketwatch david rosenberg on bnn bnn weekly economic and financial commentary wells fargo deutsche bank also expected to post profits on credit trading bloomberg sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments sunday july 26 2009 the end of the end of the recession posted by tyler durden at 10 52 pm zero hedge in collaboration with david rosenberg chief economist strategist gluskin sheff associates inc is pleased to release the attached analysis the end of the end of the recession it is our hope that this piece will provide some badly needed perspective on the recession is over debate a topic that has become as one sided as it is wrong headed our purposes is to promote rational informed discourse on the subject and to this end we enthusiastically solicit reader feedback our presentation is licensed creative commons attribution and we hope that our readers will feel free to forward it on or excerpt from it freely provided attribution is preserved the end of the end of the recession sphere related content bookmark this post with view comments labels david rosenberg some weekend thoughts by john mauldin posted by cornelius at 2 09 pm some interesting stuff in john mauldin s latest piece we ll include some pertinent quotes along with our thoughts china is growing by about 8 a year which is amazing on the surface of it as their exports are down about 20 more in some sectors how can that be i continually read about how china is going to lead the world out of its global funk and 8 growth in gdp does seem pretty strong but we need to look a little deeper if i told you that the next us stimulus package would be 4 5 trillion dollars mostly given to banks that would be forced to loan out the money quickly do you think that might jump spending and gdp in the short term would you start looking for a few bubbles to be created what about the dollar that is the equivalent of what china is now doing the volume of credit that is flowing into china is equivalent to one third of their gdp banks that already have large problem loan portfolios are now lending even more in a very short time frame china has severe capacity utilization problems as trade has sharply fallen and the us consumer is unlikely to return to anywhere near the level of consumption that was the case in 2006 the chinese stock market is up 85 this year and commodity and real estate prices are rising and no wonder the money supply shot up 28 5 in june alone that money is looking for a home my friend vitaliy katsenelson has written a very perceptive essay for foreign policy magazine talking about the nature of the current growth in china but don t confuse fast growth with sustainable growth much of china s growth over the past decade has come from lending to the united states the country suffers from real overcapacity and now growth comes from borrowing and hundreds of billion dollar decisions made on the fly don t inspire a lot of confidence for example a nearly completed 13 story building in shanghai collapsed in june due to the poor quality of its construction this growth will result in a huge pile of bad debt as forced lending is bad lending the list of negative consequences is very long but the bottom line is simple there is no miracle in the chinese miracle growth and china will pay a price the only question is when and how much this is very much in line with our theme of the recent china bubble john has done a much better job in attaching specific numbers and analogies to the situation but the fundamental picture aligns with many of our posts going back to april the larger view has not changed and the question becomes if china can complete this transition before the legs give out the us can not be expected to provide the bubble year levels of aggregate demand that has created and supported the existing chinese manufacturing and employment infrastructure i am going to quote at some length from simon hunt s latest note he travels very frequently to china and is one of the world s true experts on the copper market if you want to know something about copper ask simon copper we are told is the metal with a phd in economics if copper prices are rising then the economy is booming and historically that has more or less been the case but there may be reason to believe that phd may be no more useful this time around than a regular ivy league degree there is no better example of this speculative activity than what is being seen in the copper market it is easy for global merchants hedge funds etc to ship cathode into china and warehouse it outside the reporting system so fuelling investors sentiments that copper demand in china is soaring and at the same time draining copper from the rest of the market it is not so much industry which is doing this buying in china but individuals financial institutions and even small companies divorced from the copper industry who are buying and holding the metal because copper is a store of value and prices will go up is the common response we updated our numbers for the first half of this year they are truly staggering over 1 million tonnes of cathode is sitting in china mostly outside the reporting system as a punt on rising prices emphasis mine if it is happening in copper it is likely to be happening in other commodity markets as well if you are trading the metals you should be aware that a quick drop could happen if demand falls off due to there being a glut of supply coming back onto the market this is another long term theme that we have been exploring again john does a much better job of providing specifics to back up our original assertions we don t know who simon hunt is but if john asserts that he is a true expert we ll take his word for it this piece we put up covers most of our thoughts on the subject so we won t rehash but it is an ongoing story with the potential to have some serious impacts across global markets this is a very big deal and from the chinese point of view quite smart right now they are stuck with 2 trillion in us treasuries agency paper etc they can t sell their dollars without really hurting the dollar thereby forcing the renminbi to rise and hurting their own exports but they and much of the world feel that the us is pursuing policies that are going to be harmful to the value of the dollar and therefore to china s largest reserve exposure what to do take those dollars and buy physical assets companies natural resources maybe a few small countries to my chinese readers that s a joke although some in the west worry about that in the card game called old maid we played as kids the loser was the one who ended up with the old maid at the end of the game for the past decade the chinese sent us stuff and we sent them dollars in the form of electrons they in turn invested those dollars in our debt so we could buy more stuff it was a form of vendor financing and now the chinese have apparently decided to pass the old maid of the dollar on to other parties who will sell them their assets for dollars seriously did anyone not think they would do this massively selling the dollar which so many conspiracy theory types keep saying they will was never really a rational option but using those dollars to acquire productive assets very smart very rational if you figure out what they want to buy and get there first there are profits to be had attention should be paid this is an interesting point many have picked up on this point previously but most have assumed those asset flows are going to be into commodities we disagree mostly because of the numbers involved 2 2t is a hell of a lot of commodities but john explicitly defines the agenda of overseas acquisition including commodities equities and any other real assets china can get its hands on on a quick tangent the implications for inflation protected or hedged assets are huge specific equity sectors are likely to see flows go through the roof we ll leave it to our readers to discuss in the comments notice in the chart below that unemployment continued to rise until the first quarter of 2003 and that is also when the stock market took off those who see green shoots need to think about that meanwhile the market is clearly telling us that it sees nothing but blue skies in the future i truly marvel at this rally but i continue to think it is a bear market rally the weakest high beta names are rallying the most this rally does not seem to be the basis for a sustained bull market that being said richard russell has removed the bear from his letter and put in a bull i may be the last bear standing nothing new here for regular zh readers but it s almost comical in the simplicity of the argument people aren t employed unemployed people don t spend money not spending money means no green shoots forget second derivatives revised seasonally adjusted housing numbers or dennis kneale s belief in the power of the smiley face this is going to be a long jobless recovery hours worked per week are at an all time low as noted above part time work is very high employers when things actually start to turn around and they will will first give current employees more hours and then expand the hours of part time workers there will be few new jobs for a long time because our population is growing between 130 150 000 new jobs are required each month to keep unemployment from rising initial and continuing claims suggest we are currently losing at least 300 000 a month as an aside the media talks about initial unemployment claims falling that is actually not true unemployment claims are in fact quite high and rising but the seasonal adjustments make them loo...
|
