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re mobile in fact the entire political arrangement of a state is a result of individuals adapting to the environment and making a choice as to whether or not to stay in a territory 102 if people are free to move then the exit voice and loyalty model predicts that a state will have to be of that population representative and appease the populace in order to prevent them from leaving 103 if individuals have plausible exit options then they are better able to constrain a government s arbitrary behaviour through threat of exit 103 inequality and democracy edit daron acemoglu and james a robinson argued that the relationship between social equality and democratic transition is complicated people have less incentive to revolt in an egalitarian society for example singapore so the likelihood of democratization is lower in a highly unequal society for example south africa under apartheid the redistribution of wealth and power in a democracy would be so harmful to elites that these would do everything to prevent democratization democratization is more likely to emerge somewhere in the middle in the countries whose elites offer concessions because 1 they consider the threat of a revolution credible and 2 the cost of the concessions is not too high 104 this expectation is in line with the empirical research showing that democracy is more stable in egalitarian societies 66 other approaches to the relationship between inequality and democracy have been presented by carles boix stephan haggard robert kaufman ben ansell and david samuels 105 106 in their 2019 book the narrow corridor and a 2022 study in the american political science review acemoglu and robinson argue that the nature of the relationship between elites and society determine whether stable democracy emerges when elites are overly dominant despotic states emerge when society is overly dominant weak states emerge when elites and society are evenly balance inclusive states emerge 107 108 natural resources edit the abundance of oil is sometimes seen as a curse research shows that oil wealth lowers levels of democracy and strengthens autocratic rule 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 according to michael ross petroleum is the sole resource that has been consistently correlated with less democracy and worse institutions and is the key variable in the vast majority of the studies identifying some type of resource curse effect 119 a 2014 meta analysis confirms the negative impact of oil wealth on democratization 120 thad dunning proposes a plausible explanation for ecuador s return to democracy that contradicts the conventional wisdom that natural resource rents encourage authoritarian governments dunning proposes that there are situations where natural resource rents such as those acquired through oil reduce the risk of distributive or social policies to the elite because the state has other sources of revenue to finance this kind of policies that is not the elite wealth or income 121 and in countries plagued with high inequality which was the case of ecuador in the 1970s the result would be a higher likelihood of democratization 122 in 1972 the military coup had overthrown the government in large part because of the fears of elites that redistribution would take place 123 that same year oil became an increasing financial source for the country 123 although the rents were used to finance the military the eventual second oil boom of 1979 ran parallel to the country s re democratization 123 ecuador s re democratization can then be attributed as argued by dunning to the large increase of oil rents which enabled not only a surge in public spending but placated the fears of redistribution that had grappled the elite circles 123 the exploitation of ecuador s resource rent enabled the government to implement price and wage policies that benefited citizens at no cost to the elite and allowed for a smooth transition and growth of democratic institutions 123 the thesis that oil and other natural resources have a negative impact on democracy has been challenged by historian stephen haber and political scientist victor menaldo in a widely cited article in the american political science review 2011 haber and menaldo argue that natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable and find that when tests of the relationship between natural resources and democracy take this point into account increases in resource reliance are not associated with authoritarianism 124 cultural factors edit values and religion edit it is claimed by some that certain cultures are simply more conducive to democratic values than others this view is likely to be ethnocentric typically it is western culture which is cited as best suited to democracy with other cultures portrayed as containing values which make democracy difficult or undesirable this argument is sometimes used by undemocratic regimes to justify their failure to implement democratic reforms today however there are many non western democracies examples include india japan indonesia namibia botswana taiwan and south korea research finds that western educated leaders significantly and substantively improve a country s democratization prospects 125 huntington presented an influential but also controversial arguments about confucianism and islam huntington held that in practice confucian or confucian influenced societies have been inhospitable to democracy 126 he also held that islamic doctrine contains elements that may be both congenial and uncongenial to democracy but generally thought that islam was an obstacle to democratization 127 in contrast alfred stepan was more optimistic about the compatibility of different religions and democracy 128 the compatibility of islam and democracy continues to be a focus of discussion the image depicts a mosque in medina saudi arabia steven fish and robert barro have linked islam to undemocratic outcomes 129 130 however michael ross argues that the lack of democracies in some parts of the muslim world has more to do with the adverse effects of the resource curse than islam 131 lisa blaydes and eric chaney have linked the democratic divergence between the west and the middle east to the reliance on mamluks slave soldiers by muslim rulers whereas european rulers had to rely on local elites for military forces thus giving those elites bargaining power to push for representative government 132 robert dahl argued in on democracy that countries with a democratic political culture were more prone for democratization and democratic survival 65 he also argued that cultural homogeneity and smallness contribute to democratic survival 65 133 other scholars have however challenged the notion that small states and homogeneity strengthen democracy 134 a 2012 study found that areas in africa with protestant missionaries were more likely to become stable democracies 135 a 2020 study failed to replicate those findings 136 sirianne dahlum and carl henrik knutsen offer a test of the ronald inglehart and christian welzel revised version of modernization theory which focuses on cultural traits triggered by economic development that are presumed to be conducive to democratization 137 they find no empirical support for the inglehart and welzel thesis and conclude that self expression values do not enhance democracy levels or democratization chances and neither do they stabilize existing democracies 138 education edit it has long been theorized that education promotes stable and democratic societies 139 research shows that education leads to greater political tolerance increases the likelihood of political participation and reduces inequality 140 one study finds that increases in levels of education improve levels of democracy and that the democratizing effect of education is more intense in poor countries 140 it is commonly claimed that democracy and democratization were important drivers of the expansion of primary education around the world however new evidence from historical education trends challenges this assertion an analysis of historical student enrollment rates for 109 countries from 1820 to 2010 finds no support for the claim that democratization increased access to primary education around the world it is true that transitions to democracy often coincided with an acceleration in the expansion of primary education but the same acceleration was observed in countries that remained non democratic 141 wider adoption of voting advice applications can lead to increased education on politics and increased voter turnout 142 social capital and civil society edit civic engagement including volunteering is conducive to democratization these volunteers are cleaning up after the 2012 hurricane sandy civil society refers to a collection of non governmental organizations and institutions that advance the interests priorities and will of citizens social capital refers to features of social life networks norms and trust that allow individuals to act together to pursue shared objectives 8 robert putnam argues that certain characteristics make societies more likely to have cultures of civic engagement that lead to more participatory democracies according to putnam communities with denser horizontal networks of civic association are able to better build the norms of trust reciprocity and civic engagement that lead to democratization and well functioning participatory democracies by contrasting communities in northern italy which had dense horizontal networks to communities in southern italy which had more vertical networks and patron client relations putnam asserts that the latter never built the culture of civic engagement that some deem as necessary for successful democratization 143 the anthropologist joseph henrich makes a complementary argument but one that emphasizes not just the importance of how various kinds of associations create bridging social capital but also the importance of the absence of intensive kin based institutions 144 sheri berman has rebutted putnam s theory that civil society contributes to democratization writing that in the case of the weimar republic civil society facilitated the rise of the nazi party 145 according to berman germany s democratization after world war i allowed for a renewed development in the country s civil society however berman argues that this vibrant civil society eventually weakened democracy within germany as it exacerbated existing social divisions due to the creation of exclusionary community organizations 145 subsequent empirical research and theoretical analysis has lent support for berman s argument 146 yale university political scientist daniel mattingly argues civil society in china helps the authoritarian regime in china to cement control 147 clark m golder and s golder also argue that despite many believing democratization requires a civic culture empirical evidence produced by several reanalyses of past studies suggest this claim is only partially supported 13 philippe c schmitter also asserts that the existence of civil society is not a prerequisite for the transition to democracy but rather democratization is usually followed by the resurrection of civil society even if it did not exist previously 15 research indicates that democracy protests are associated with democratization according to a study by freedom house in 67 countries where dictatorships have fallen since 1972 nonviolent civic resistance was a strong influence over 70 percent of the time in these transitions changes were catalyzed not through foreign invasion and only rarely through armed revolt or voluntary elite driven reforms but overwhelmingly by democratic civil society organizations utilizing nonviolent action and other forms of civil resistance such as strikes boycotts civil disobedience and mass protests 148 a 2016 study found that about a quarter of all cases of democracy protests between 1989 and 2011 lead to democratization 149 theories based on political agents and choices edit elite opposition negotiations and contingency edit scholars such as dankwart a rustow 150 151 guillermo o donnell and philippe c schmitter in their classic transitions from authoritarian rule tentative conclusions about uncertain democracies 1986 152 argued against the notion that there are structural big causes of democratization these scholars instead emphasize how the democratization process occurs in a more contingent manner that depends on the characteristics and circumstances of the elites who ultimately oversee the shift from authoritarianism to democracy o donnell and schmitter proposed a strategic choice approach to transitions to democracy that highlighted how they were driven by the decisions of different actors in response to a core set of dilemmas the analysis centered on the interaction among four actors the hard liners and soft liners who belonged to the incumbent authoritarian regime and the moderate and radical oppositions against the regime this book not only became the point of reference for a burgeoning academic literature on democratic transitions it was also read widely by political activists engaged in actual struggles to achieve democracy 153 adam przeworski in democracy and the market 1991 offered the first analysis of the interaction between rulers and opposition in transitions to democracy using rudimentary game theory and he emphasizes the interdependence of political and economic transformations 154 elite driven democratization edit scholars have argued that processes of democratization may be elite driven or driven by the authoritarian incumbents as a way for those elites to retain power amid popular demands for representative government 155 156 157 158 if the costs of repression are higher than the costs of giving away power authoritarians may opt for democratization and inclusive institutions 159 160 161 according to a 2020 study authoritarian led democratization is more likely to lead to lasting democracy in cases when the party strength of the authoritarian incumbent is high 162 however michael albertus and victor menaldo argue that democratizing rules implemented by outgoing authoritarians may distort democracy in favor of the outgoing authoritarian regime and its supporters resulting in bad institutions that are hard to get rid of 163 according to michael k miller elite driven democratization is particularly likely in the wake of major violent shocks either domestic or international which provide openings to opposition actors to the authoritarian regime 161 dan slater and joseph wong argue that dictators in asia chose to implement democratic reforms when they were in positions of strength in order to retain and revitalize their power 158 according to a study by political scientist daniel treisman influential theories of democratization posit that autocrats deliberately choose to share or surrender power they do so to prevent revolution motivate citizens to fight 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