Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
2009, the, thursday, friday, tuesday, wednesday, 2010, october, 2008, june, 2011, of, 15, september, january, february, march, recession, 2012, may, 12, april, december, august, 2013, 24, 21, july, 16, 01, 08, november, 30, monday, 03, 22, 11, to, sovereign, rates, great, 19, 17, 10, 20, 27, 05, you, and, two, interest, next, on, depression, choo, 25, 06, 28, 04, 18, 26, 29, 13, about, me, previous, posts, archives, are, here, horses, water, 1934, antigone, decline, west, dismal, science, waves, collide, headed, north, us, debt, default, enters, mainstream, media, checkmate, consequences, mis, diagnosis, fourteen, speed, economy, currency, wars, tail, dragon, savings, frypan, fire, three, gets, greenspan, five, years, global, up, plain, talking, no, country, for, old, bulls, trial, murder, suicide, elephant, in, room, cloak, dollar, illusion, banananomics, over, american, insolvency, fourth, turning, revisited, long, haul, usd, 134, billion, anyone, page, nineteen, bond, bubble, bursting, early, signs, second, movement, inflationary, imminent, social, dislocation, repricing, risk, pet, cemetary, thin, air, art, being, wrong, schiff, was, right, bailout, ocean, stability, china, inflation, tsunami, weimar, theory, pallative, care, day, after, modern, lemming, so, what,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (975), and (285), that (150), will (149), this (134), are (87), for (87), have (72), from (72), its (69), peter (65), article (60), comments (59), posted (57), not (56), but (52), with (52), global (52), #interest (49), rates (48), now (48), has (47), would (46), may (45), debt (45), economic (45), recession (43), 2009 (42), their (42), you (41), was (41), dollar (41), great (41), there (40), economy (36), link (35), currency (35), inflation (34), government (33), into (33), world (32), more (32), states (32), default (30), what (30), china (30), over (29), above (27), risk (26), all (26), one (26), been (26), united (26), where (25), depression (25), 2010 (24), sovereign (24), like (24), could (24), 2008 (23), which (23), see (23), well (23), economies (23), should (22), only (22), can (22), euro (22), term (21), when (20), time (20), real (20), monetary (20), they (20), just (20), current (19), out (19), october (18), australia (18), some (18), today (18), how (18), collapse (18), financial (17), these (17), two (16), going (16), rise (16), people (16), credit (16), political (16), who (16), long (16), very (16), governments (16), first (16), decline (15), post (15), than (15), however (15), need (15), many (15), end (15), decade (15), years (15), business (15), per (15), september (14), about (14), way (14), banks (14), crisis (14), blog (14), friday (14), high (14), seems (14), thursday (14), consequences (14), spectator (14), europe (14), june (13), 2011 (13), 2005 (13), still (13), severe (13), much (13), times (13), likely (13), value (13), year (13), australian (13), wednesday (13), period (13), august (12), here (12), please (12), next (12), those (12), our (12), money (12), policy (12), before (12), suspect (12), expansion (12), right (12), last (12), reserve (12), remains (12), between (12), tuesday (12), far (12), bubble (12), asset (12), 2012 (11), january (11), march (11), 2007 (11), future (11), system (11), also (11), find (11), prices (11), let (11), through (11), read (11), again (11), new (11), continue (11), cent (11), july (10), april (10), 2006 (10), his (10), markets (10), yet (10), take (10), support (10), greenspan (10), state (10), indebtedness (10), rapid (10), chinese (10), alan (10), own (10), such (10), february (9), december (9), 2004 (9), property (9), low (9), start (9), being (9), around (9), medium (9), market (9), were (9), think (9), most (9), rate (9), both (9), spending (9), even (9), indeed (9), disaster (9), party (9), beginning (9), increase (9), while (9), history (9), follow (9), war (9), deficits (9), fall (9), rather (9), currencies (9), finally (9), question (9), best (9), any (9), policies (9), greece (9), november (8), against (8), full (8), good (8), seen (8), believe (8), unemployment (8), capital (8), central (8), federal (8), effect (8), work (8), western (8), bond (8), running (8), savings (8), then (8), productive (8), growth (8), social (8), inevitable (8), countries (8), martin (8), although (7), why (7), currently (7), reality (7), american (7), nation (7), order (7), look (7), because (7), down (7), least (7), another (7), especially (7), clear (7), fiscal (7), had (7), following (7), potential (7), stage (7), leading (7), few (7), schiff (7), generation (7), irresponsible (7), early (7), part (7), without (7), said (7), process (7), kohler (7), actually (7), longer (7), begin (7), perhaps (7), level (7), itself (7), european (7), 2013 (6), view (6), check (6), doubt (6), expect (6), significant (6), downturn (6), return (6), know (6), number (6), banking (6), run (6), short (6), same (6), less (6), bank (6), lending (6), get (6), your (6), defaults (6), become (6), come (6), say (6), other (6), apparently (6), self (6), day (6), seem (6), after (6), taking (6), cannot (6), care (6), obama (6), control (6), unfortunately (6), teens (6), price (6), recovery (6), unsustainable (6), already (6), ben (6), bloomberg (6), probably (6), three (6), worst (6), always (6), extended (6), borrowing (6), problem (6), yes (6), wars (6), appears (6), personal (6), second (6), insolvency (6), obligations (6), trade (6), verdict (6), trillion (6), nations (6), mainstream (5), headed (5), previous (5), back (5), recently (5), equity (5), situation (5), truth (5), massive (5), higher (5), reason (5), balance (5), point (5), things (5), japan (5), revenue (5), happen (5), under (5), environment (5), investors (5), want (5), levels (5), income (5), mortgage (5), 000 (5), issue (5), does (5), protect (5), republic (5), infrastructure (5), pay (5), comment (5), boom (5), lose (5), fact (5), generational (5), quote (5), concept (5), forced (5), rapidly (5), wrong (5), lead (5), bonds (5), increases (5), increased (5), base (5), really (5), theory (5), off (5), within (5), achieved (5), gold (5), playing (5), bailout (5), call (5), cycle (5), administration (5), needs (5), signs (5), quoted (5), debasement (5), capacity (5), option (5), realise (5), decision (5), country (5), rising (5), taxation (5), further (5), interesting (5), movement (5), sentiment (5), public (5), necessary (5), review (5), america (5), led (5), press (5), bernanke (5), living (5), described (5), alone (5), guilty (5), deficit (5), did (5), wolf (5), west (4), posts (4), act (4), happens (4), crash (4), better (4), president (4), bush (4), quickly (4), talking (4), warning (4), telling (4), large (4), moment (4), dead (4), issues (4), factor (4), paid (4), required (4), stock (4), until (4), impact (4), doesn (4), globally (4), five (4), line (4), ultimately (4), cost (4), commenced (4), thinking (4), needed (4), survive (4), recent (4), possible (4), inflationary (4), indebted (4), put (4), degree (4), driven (4), attempted (4), bailouts (4), instability (4), make (4), downward (4), consumer (4), facto (4), weimar (4), correct (4), started (4), bubbles (4), ago (4), since (4), away (4), coming (4), problems (4), face (4), possibly (4), greatly (4), key (4), continues (4), www (4), late (4), repay (4), occur (4), concomitant (4), treasury (4), commence (4), little (4), destruction (4), unlike (4), britain (4), hope (4), printing (4), reduce (4), values (4), domestic (4), never (4), anyone (4), fire (4), including (4), mortgages (4), repricing (4), play (4), imminent (4), place (4), developed (4), remain (4), leaders (4), suggests (4), amongst (4), national (4), health (4), systems (4), whilst (4), service (4), must (4), budget (4), rest (4), extent (4), conflict (4), strauss (4), begun (4), move (4), easy (4), scenario (4), clearly (4), union (4), murder (4), bill (4), created (4), tax (4), fiat (4), decades (4), adjustments (4), gfc (4), karen (4), maley (4), deleveraging (4), approach (4), something (4), click (4), debts (4), germany (4), continued (4), competitiveness (4), media (3), north (3), science (3), antigone (3), 1934 (3), complete (3), series (3), linked (3), therefore (3), chance (3), share (3), hasn (3), says (3), days (3), demand (3), danger (3), open (3), companies (3), opportunity (3), holdings (3), big (3), don (3), stable (3), serious (3), peak (3), area (3), lot (3), means (3), areas (3), difficult (3), company (3), dismissed (3), every (3), cultural (3), sharply (3), sector (3), spend (3), agencies (3), role (3), finance (3), multi (3), overnight (3), mistake (3), size (3), securitisation (3), sense (3), citizens (3), agree (3), relative (3), wages (3), measures (3), won (3), considered (3), status (3), mentality (3), turn (3), confined (3), followed (3), game (3), hyperinflation (3), burden (3), actions (3), underlying (3), different (3), reasons (3), inevitably (3), phenomenon (3), whether (3), talk (3), several (3), either (3), totalitarian (3), dramatically (3), everyone (3), copy (3), news (3), sheet (3), 1990 (3), emerging (3), delayed (3), huge (3), fuelled (3), understand (3), monday (3), simultaneously (3), major (3), jure (3), via (3), exchange (3), loss (3), path (3), induced (3), saw (3), concern (3), borrow (3), progressively (3), left (3), pressure (3), verge (3), middle (3), presses (3), despite (3), outlines (3), sad (3), tangible (3), across (3), exascerbated (3), try (3), sadly (3), russia (3), politically (3), reform (3), lower (3), gross (3), trajectory (3), almost (3), refer (3), quotes (3), heading (3), sustainable (3), argument (3), turning (3), makes (3), whatever (3), feature (3), mid (3), green (3), shoots (3), howe (3), http (3), com (3), maintain (3), chairman (3), possibility (3), insolvent (3), creditors (3), beyond (3), buffet (3), banana (3), adjustment (3), soon (3), choice (3), strategy (3), position (3), hooper (3), mercantilist (3), foundations (3), welcome (3), newman (3), largely (3), concommitant (3), catastrophe (3), spain (3), prosperity (3), austerity (3), simply (3), mark (3), plan (3), truly (3), protracted (3), piigs (3), supply (3), speed (3), idea (3), rebuild (3), reckoning (3), towards (3), tea (3), tell (3), repeat (3), enters (2), waves (2), collide (2), dismal (2), horses (2), water (2), canberra (2), gottliebsen (2), questions (2), bottom (2), specific (2), stocks (2), significantly (2), old (2), minister (2), create (2), called (2), stagflation (2), forecasting (2), set (2), restore (2), rally (2), provides (2), event (2), territory (2), eventual (2), selling (2), resources (2), deep (2), trouble (2), recessionary (2), socially (2), unstable (2), setting (2), happy (2), ability (2), perform (2), highly (2), forecasters (2), extensive (2), investor (2), 1929 (2), dow (2), reach (2), seeing (2), working (2), services (2), average (2), feel (2), progressive (2), confidence (2), wouldn (2), surprised (2), commercial (2), hit (2), hard (2), thing (2), having (2), card (2), species (2), sign (2), remuneration (2), job (2), contributed (2), blame (2), failure (2), shocked (2), institutions (2), past (2), bad (2), structures (2), realistic (2), badly (2), non (2), near (2), provide (2), 1931 (2), during (2), rating (2), extremely (2), ratings (2), suffer (2), shift (2), unavoidable (2), aware (2), greatest (2), fan (2), turned (2), instead (2), dotcom (2), maestro (2), believes (2), made (2), bunch (2), investment (2), basis (2), derivative (2), products (2), yourself (2), lemmus (2), prudent (2), wonder (2), iceland (2), author (2), fully (2), heavily (2), reducing (2), existing (2), liabilities (2), correctly (2), identifies (2), week (2), morning (2), life (2), imagine (2), aud (2), additional (2), reached (2), video (2), youtube (2), upcoming (2), jealous (2), pick (2), exactly (2), implode (2), notion (2), rich (2), quick (2), trader (2), proven (2), estate (2), burst (2), sometime (2), spiral (2), compared (2), slope (2), broadly (2), equivalent (2), deflation (2), catastrophic (2), ourselves (2), balancing (2), result (2), incomes (2), version (2), factors (2), ten (2), fed (2), recommend (2), wave (2), ocean (2), solutions (2), seek (2), fix (2), events (2), along (2), dependant (2), half (2), tsunami (2), facing (2), geo (2), resulting (2), equally (2), breaks (2), entity (2), communist (2), vicious (2), opinion (2), stability (2), inexorable (2), consequence (2), precipitously (2), true (2), hedge (2), got (2), biggest (2), buy (2), astute (2), reference (2), explain (2), letter (2), obtained (2), debased (2), defend (2), mess (2), excessive (2), understanding (2), developing (2), 2001 (2), correction (2), achieve (2), occurred (2), cheap (2), pricing (2), emerged (2), allow (2), informed (2), stagflationary (2), reprint (2), saying (2), each (2), repaid (2), break (2), astounding (2), legacy (2), unlikely (2), firstly (2), rebuilding (2), opening (2), moving (2), reponse (2), mutually (2), assured (2), standard (2), upon (2), impairment (2), bass (2), victim (2), light (2), tunnel (2), train (2), immediately (2), greater (2), print (2), choo (2), fund (2), foreign (2), causing (2), slowly (2), upward (2), fail (2), answer (2), jolt (2), morgue (2), scene (2), pet (2), cemetary (2), initially (2), everything (2), helicopter (2), billion (2), cause (2), heads (2), yields (2), used (2), sustained (2), jobs (2), employment (2), initiatives (2), ensure (2), human (2), dignity (2), enough (2), handouts (2), raised (2), accept (2), individuals (2), creating (2), absence (2), deliberate (2), attempt (2), attack (2), deleverage (2), particularly (2), irony (2), individual (2), asking (2), themselves (2), remarkable (2), together (2), primed (2), firmly (2), depletion (2), preceding (2), gdp (2), cpi (2), bailoutorama (2), common (2), particular (2), easing (2), continuing (2), treasuries (2), direction (2), folly (2), iraq (2), combined (2), chronic (2), financially (2), partisan (2), conservative (2), commentators (2), too (2), intolerable (2), product (2), evidence (2), strongly (2), appreciate (2), context (2), prospect (2), implied (2), english (2), speaking (2), page (2), japanese (2), usd (2), wall (2), intentions (2), form (2), appear (2), community (2), unfolding (2), though (2), fourth (2), worth (2), building (2), power (2), influence (2), wish (2), solvent (2), completely (2), stay (2), unlimited (2), house (2), held (2), painful (2), stronger (2), man (2), economist (2), illusion (2), gaping (2), chasm (2), consumption (2), isn (2), covered (2), placed (2), store (2), forward (2), mind (2), nothing (2), outcome (2), duty (2), south (2), chimerica (2), core (2), damaged (2), due (2), quite (2), tool (2), writedowns (2), looming (2), suicide (2), million (2), list (2), case (2), came (2), disasterous (2), relentless (2), disagrees (2), namely (2), messrs (2), sprott (2), fundamental (2), surplus (2), us1 (2), four (2), funded (2), unfunded (2), double (2), digit (2), estimates (2), perceived (2), requirements (2), purchases (2), 200 (2), according (2), given (2), them (2), include (2), outside (2), responsible (2), raise (2), weather (2), rebalancing (2), alternative (2), damaging (2), occurs (2), catalyst (2), date (2), expansionary (2), exposed (2), portugal (2), ireland (2), larger (2), structural (2), rational (2), magic (2), devalue (2), effectively (2), tide (2), takes (2), hangover (2), debtor (2), content (2), merely (2), account (2), frypan (2), shortage (2), tail (2), dragon (2), slow (2), legitimate (2), wealth (2), struggling (2), fourteen (2), pre (2), broad (2), smaller (2), club (2), ignoring (2), poor (2), prolonged (2), debate (2), legitimately (2), quacks (2), cutting (2), greek (2), sell (2), dire (2), hopelessly (2), sound (2), ceiling (2), fantasy (2), cut (2), industry (2), caused (2), resolved (2), bust (2), allowed (2), disappear (2), curtain (2), beneath (2), 1920 (2), businessspectator (2), nsf (2), opendocument (2), src (2), sph (2), statement (2), cases (2), refinancing (2), replace (2), democracies (2), intentional (2), debtors (2), emergence (2), conflicts (2), space (2), archives, profile, relocated, location, name, note, responds, throw, thoughts, extracts, overall, commodity, destined, troubles, residential, adjusted, impacts, experience, nonsense, prime, tougher, injection, require, agreed, undermine, unbroken, record, spigots, reinforces, disconnect, sheets, brief, formally, parrot, worthiness, migrating, proper, unloading, phase, puts, depends, chunk, falls, seriously, inherently, hangs, socio, unsupported, winners, strategies, crop, pass, retraining, yeah, frankly, bought, waited, 1954, 2032, folks, expectations, apply, lift, importantly, enormous, independent, contractor, affected, families, receiving, ordinary, feeling, months, joe, hearing, noise, pain, unfolds, step, majority, superannuation, cash, cautious, animals, tighter, resident, sic, hardest, sale, declining, letters, adding, limit, endangered, cards, young, boards, executive, packages, directors, putting, generous, package, undoubtedly, sub, optimal, behaviour, bare, brunt, elite, unsettling, theme, profound, funding, backing, projects, taken, cleaners, optimism, regulation, returns, researched, figures, laughed, inclined, using, stimulus, construction, hoover, dam, controllers, drought, activity, outsourced, handled, causality, undoing, stuff, clout, tight, director, reined, tighten, contractors, purge, person, whole, affair, pretty, recovered, flooring, pedal, testified, senate, committee, transpires, looked, shareholders, myself, disbelief, employ, baby, souled, bankers, remunerated, transaction, volumes, incentivise, annual, bonuses, creation, institutionalise, obfuscate, trust, notionally, preservation, introduce, familiarise, modern, lemming, solberg, bear, suffering, woke, night, somewhat, ethereally, probable, points, interventions, targeting, historical, settled, lesser, evils, help, entities, function, mechanism, reductions, sudden, wake, included, distressed, businesses, protectionism, behind, failing, car, manufacturers, restructured, rebuilt, wasting, taxpayers, supporting, multinationals, supportive, pallative, cult, circulation, precient, shows, recall, interview, gave, 2002, implosion, critics, ones, assume, claiming, didn, somehow, laughable, scourge, remedies, midst, intense, certainly, shores, destroyed, length, intensity, ask, everyones, mortage, doubled, controlled, positive, opposed, allowing, persist, modest, facilitate, style, accompanying, assist, mitigating, outstrip, authors, nature, partially, precipitated, characteristics, contained, shared, weeks, total, 1290bn, 151, annualised, sept, 10th, 755, precedent, enjoyed, reading, undersea, earthquake, occuring, shore, bump, cliche, worse, original, john, kemp, severely, epicentre, partner, manage, pull, holds, drops, merry, christmas, absolute, rubbish, risks, stated, compact, unravel, discord, outcomes, unpalatable, coherent, conduct, broadspread, suppression, populace, successfully, unwaivering, liberation, army, sort, pushes, brink, various, extents, funds, buying, bullion, signal, pundits, dismay, grandpa, predictions, greenlight, exploding, felt, himself, critic, surprise, drove, investing, cycles, picking, troughs, comprehension, experiencing, signals, growing, internet, 1996, mini, monetise, floored, amplified, leveraging, inappropriate, culprits, cited, smothered, 2015, akin, sympathies, insightful, prescient, commentator, govern, operate, examination, intellectual, rigour, follies, magnified, search, videos, europac, net, deflationary, unpleasant, slightly, flavoured, counterparts, 19c, bayer, pharmaceutical, age, art, trying, assumed, adminsitration, beggar, belief, secondly, accompany, substantial, chief, creditor, booking, unimaginable, chicken, riding, cars, liquidate, excesses, book, losses, heart, morphing, crunch, feedback, loop, politicians, latest, spot, title, commentary, super, consensus, shouldn, repeated, committed, modicum, restraint, constraint, thin, air, stream, artciles, explaining, associated, immune, remember, freight, rampant, wrote, bomb, grows, stimulate, eponymous, apparentlty, international, agrees, sheer, apoplexy, unable, externally, repair, remaining, alludes, preciptate, keep, pace, purged, printed, conjures, minute, resusitation, pulse, returning, nearly, deceased, getting, whirlybird, anticipated, bombardment, 300, securities, ignited, firestorm, analysts, headline, bail, rama, perception, free, changing, fast, once, starts, sharp, reversal, trends, maybe, raises, consequently, lifts, bondholders, benchmark, charged, types, home, ripple, lost, pressing, desperation, writes, calamity, equal, severity, losing, decisively, guarantee, mechanisms, permit, society, decend, population, stake, hundreds, thousands, australians, immediate, traditional, benefits, imbecilic, class, waste, discussing, travel, groups, wants, dislocation, carr, disburbingly, resilent, keynsian, mantra, seeking, invariably, use, rescue, careful, prove, medicine, minds, success, reinvest, expenditure, frivolous, saving, invest, productively, spends, monthly, installments, reporting, except, ole, framework, matched, serviced, floudered, inefficient, resource, allocation, lynchpin, jones, rush, stabilise, falling, stress, tests, partial, doing, depend, save, symphony, congratulate, cooperated, lehman, continental, goal, unprecedented, british, pound, active, adequately, priced, restarted, quantitiative, virtually, moved, sphere, holders, notes, nadir, reprice, general, motors, road, wasteful, meaningless, ruin, california, bankrupt, condition, prolificacy, ruinous, suggested, administrations, crucial, modernise, contemporary, fundable, sutuation, numbers, deliver, preserve, delivering, percentage, empircial, supports, lowest, delivery, anathema, readers, course, digressed, trend, yield, surged, highest, sparking, temper, bursting, apologise, quoting, online, exceed, restoring, intents, purposes, ditch, articles, often, reverse, curtail, opposite, precisely, represents, unparalleled, marks, cultures, nineteen, fascinating, matter, bumbling, billionare, fraudsters, korean, agents, officials, flogging, enjoy, 134, street, journal, commonly, known, adjust, underemployment, stages, none, accumulating, unprecedent, plenty, ongoing, prolifigacy, adminsistration, woefful, inherited, adminstration, oversee, comprehensive, needless, destablise, palpable, wipe, haul, ran, links, worthwhile, oil, bodies, originally, foresee, austrian, refresh, fourthturning, revisited, references, swings, dramatic, accordingly, mild, comparison, land, assertive, chaotic, dissolute, expansionist, police, miltary, morale, sincerely, optimists, surely, survey, economists, hmmm, forsee, interim, crest, perspective, charade, determine, retrospect, necessarily, decisions, featured, york, penned, warren, reminscent, paul, keating, famous, speech, 1989, treasurer, warned, oblivion, raising, brave, earned, him, inconsiderable, ire, lage, voters, didnt, regard, ugly, entered, aludes, wise, die, evolve, keynes, banananomics, nobel, prize, winning, couldn, missing, manifest, comcommitant, plunge, silk, joseph, stiglitz, questionable, cloak, cursory, imposed, citizenry, circumstance, industrial, devaluation, reduced, imports, standards, reduction, military, disengagement, hole, dug, annunciated, extricate, acceptable, combination, monetises, selectively, annihilation, send, head, doomsday, flipside, lenders, borrowings, accumulate, description, affairs, ways, intends, mountain, external, outlined, titled, clean, written, vince, university, wales, elephant, room, fallacy, dependency, produces, consumes, fairly, strongest, contributor, response, tyre, tarriffs, hurt, quiet, diplomacy, grave, strategic, nationalistic, spured, nationalism, totalitarianism, fascism, increasingly, relationship
Text of the page (random words):
stro a k a easy al argues that lax monetary policy did not contribute to the great recession sigh fortunately it is no longer the sole duty of this blogger to defend a rational interpretation of economic management the denial of responsibility for the worst economic mismanagement in recent history is perhaps predictable but it is also now futile where we will need magic in the next fives years is in extricating ourselves from the monetary accomodation and concommitant indebtedness that is characteristic of so many major global economies there has been much discussion recently of greece s precarious economic position and that of its fellow pigs portugal ireland and spain much larger economies are also mired in severe indebtedness such as great britain japan and the united states there appears at this stage of the great recession only one path open to work through this situation namely that is to run inflation in the mid to high teens for a period of years to devalue the level of global indebtedness and effectively default on their obligations any talk of green shoots or recovery in this environment is nonsensical the first signs of reflation is asset prices is likely to be driven by a tide of inflation nominal prices may be rising while real prices stagnate or decline there will be no return to the false prosperity of last boom until a decade has past and global economies have deleveraged probably by constructive default sadly the worst of this is still to come posted by peter at 9 08 am 0 comments thursday january 21 2010 global interest rates on the up interest rates are headed up sharply and quite possibly in 2010 those countries that are pursuing responsible monetary policies such as australia will suffer less that those with irresponsible and expansionary policies but the direction of interest rates will still be the same as karen maley s article from today s business spectator see link states the most exposed euro block countries include portugal ireland greece and spain these countries are running unsustainably large deficits that should be causing their creditors in the bond markets much concern these nations and their irresponsible policies may well jeopardise the euro s future even these nations may well be the tips of the iceberg as larger economies such as great britain the united states and japan are also running large deficits expansionary monetary policies and demonstrating a deficit of political will to fix their structural problems currency instability and rapidly rising interest rates may well be the consequence a debt default by one sovereign nation may be the catalyst that sends global credit to the wall and gold into the stratosphere posted by peter at 10 38 am 0 comments friday january 15 2010 2010 the risk that deteriorating government finances could push economies into full fledged debt crises tops a list of threats facing the world in 2010 according to a report by the world economic forum a repricing of sovereign risk in 2010 could be the catalyst for rapidly rising interest rates on a global scale and finally put an end to the bailoutorama that has characterised the gfc to date the question remains will the us dollar be repriced to reflect the innate insolvency of the united states welcome back for 2010 more soon posted by peter at 11 35 am 0 comments wednesday november 18 2009 plain talking in this article by martin wolf from the financial times and quoted from business spectator mr wolf clearly lays down the essential and fundamental requirements for a sustainable economic rebalancing between china and the united states mr wolf imagines the following threat from president obama i would then argue that china s determination to thwart needed adjustment in exchange rates had become intolerable the us is entitled to protect itself against such mercantilism the trading system would be terribly damaged but the alternative would be unbearable in decades of cold war with the soviet union the concept of mutually assured destruction helped ensure that no nation would press the button sadly in this catastrophe there is no alternative china and the united states will need to break there damaging co depency and when it occurs it will be a painful process for both parties and the wider economic community posted by peter at 4 29 pm 1 comments friday october 30 2009 no country for old bulls please check the link above to today s article from alan kohler at business spectator the most interesting part of this article is actually that with which the author disagrees namely his quotes from messrs newman and sprott maurice newman chairman of the australian broadcasting corporation and former chairman of the australian stock exchange is quoted as per follows between 1990 and 2007 we saw the biggest credit explosion and consumption binge in history this liquidity created a deep fundamental disequilibrium between surplus and deficit countries while financial markets have tried to redress this they have been frustrated by well meaning government intervention designed to soften the impact in the us the legacy of these policies is a mandated liability of us111 trillion which roughly equates to us365 000 per man woman and child or us1 3 million for a family of four only about 10 per cent of all these obligations have been fully funded the rest are unfunded or underfunded commitments which will fall due over time in the meantime the us government must borrow us3 5 trillion over the next year which is equivalent to all the debt raised between 1789 and 1994 it will take 75 years of double digit growth to pay back the 2009 budget deficit came in at a little over us1 40 trillion or about 10 0 per cent of gdp and three times the shortfall of 2008 it is expected to reach us 1 5 trillion this year the obama administration s own estimates project the ten year deficit to be us9 trillion recently revised up from us7 trillion so there is little improvement in prospect these comments support what this blog has been asserting for some time while the debt bubble has burst the dollar bubble remains as mr newman most astutely implies these problems did not arise overnight but have been building as part of a medium term cycle over decades personally i was around the last 90 s when i first perceived the early signs of bubbletopia the second quote is from a mr eric sprott described as a canadian fund manager and his comments on the u s deficit in order to satisfy us capital requirements all existing investors would have had to increase their us bond purchases by 200 per cent in fiscal 2009 foreigners however only increased their purchases by a mere 28 per cent from september 2008 to july 2009 far short of what the us government required the us taxpayer can t cover the difference either according to recent estimates tax revenue from all sources would have to increase by 61 per cent in order to balance the 2010 fiscal budget given that state government income tax revenues were down 27 5 per cent in the second quarter the us government will be lucky just to maintain its current level of tax revenue let alone increase it from 2004 to 2009 us unfunded obligations increased by an average of almost 50 per cent while us government revenue increased by only 12 per cent no company or government can increase its liabilities by more than four times the rate of its revenue and stay solvent for an extended period of time most interestingly alan kohler quotes these gentlemen but disagrees with them on the issues of timing i also see the possibility of a limited pick up in the australian economy in the new year however no one can escape the short to medium term consequences of the american insolvency it has been said before but if there is a loss of faith in the us dollar the stampede to alternatives could trigger a number of changes in very rapid succession these include rapid interest rate rise largely outside the control of central banks hopefully if we can continue our responsible monetary policy and continue to raise rates we could be well placed to again weather this global shockwave the reality is that there is no light at the end of this economic tunnel the us economic policies and concommitant spending are unsustainable currency collapse economic depression and difficult longer term economic adjustments are inevitable now in the united states by the way if you are new to this blog i strongly recommend you read the first post from august 10 2004 where the great recession was described predicted and named well before the event posted by peter at 3 23 pm 0 comments monday october 26 2009 on trial david reilly s article in bloomberg asks the question who s face should adorn a us 1 million bill his article postulates a weimerian collapse of the greenback and in this he is now far from alone the answer he concludes is inescapably correct the us consumer should be the face of the new bill i would rather not issue a pardon so early for the villians of this disaster let s review his list of potential perps ben bernanke verdict case dismissed helicopter ben came far to late to the scene the reality is that the factors that have created the great recession could be first observed in the mid to late 90 s bernie madoff verdict guilty but not of currency assassination george w bush verdict guilty tax cuts unconstrained spending combined with the folly of the iraq war laid the foundations the us s disasterous economic state the only redeeming feature of this administration was its consistency in unrelenting awefulness at everything it attempted wen jiabao verdict not guilty by virtue of self defense fascist china s relentless pursuit of mercantilist growth has served it well and the us has paid the price for its lack of vision yes i know where i stole that from henry paulson verdict case dismissed in the line up but no where near the murder weapon richard nixon veridct guilty of many things including introducing instability into the fiat system unlike g w actually achieved a few things alan greenspan verdict guilty of first degree currency murder a feature of this blog from early on al s relentless easy money program mitigated the post dotcom recession by creating the foundations for a depression neither the stock market bubble house price bubble or debt securitisation bubble fazed easy al with the collapse of the us dollar bubble his failure will be complete yes i know welcome to the 1 000 000 bill al posted by peter at 2 12 pm 0 comments tuesday september 15 2009 murder suicide ed harrison writing in his blog credit writedowns has an arresting take on the subject with this trade war looming one must wonder if chimerica the marriage of china and america as one economic entity will end in murder suicide taking the global economy down with it follow the link above to alan kohler s article in today s business spectator the concept of chimerica and economic union between the united states and china is a fallacy it is best described as a co dependency where china produces and america consumes it is a core part of the chinese mercantilist economic policy which has so damaged the us s productive base it could be fairly said that this is not due to china alone but over the last decade its has been the strongest contributor to this process i was actually quite surprised with the chinese response to the us tyre tarriffs a trade war with china will hurt the us but it would be a disaster for the chinese economy this would clearly be an area where quiet diplomacy would be in china s interest playing the trade war card with the us is in my opinion a grave strategic mistake from the chinese it seems that nationalistic sentiment spured on as a tool of social control by the chinese communist party is developing a life of its own nationalism and totalitarianism are the key foundations of fascism a point no doubt that we will be increasingly made aware of as the economic relationship between china and the west breaks down and a new one rises to take its place posted by peter at 11 10 am 1 comments thursday september 03 2009 the elephant in the room i refer to today s australian financial review page 63 and the article titled bernanke s duty to come clean written by vince hooper at the university of new south wales in this article mr hooper has clearly outlined the reasons why i believe there can be no medium term global economic recovery the world needs to know how the us intends to reduce its mountain of domestic and external debt true i think the us needs to work it out first mr hooper outlines three ways the currently unsustainable level of us debt can play out the us does nothing but continues to accumulate further debt not actually a strategy or outcome but a description of the current state of affairs the us selectively defaults on its debt obligations possible but the concomitant annihilation of the us dollar will send us head first into great depression ii in my mind this is the doomsday deflation scenario the flipside of this scenario is that lenders no longer support us s borrowings leading to a rapid rise in the us interest rates the us monetises its debt this is the high inflation scenario there is no easy way out of the hole the us has dug for itself the reason bernanke hasn t annunciated a strategy to extricate the us from its current unsustainable debt position is that there isn t one politically acceptable the only way forward for the us is probably a combination of the following global disengagement massive reduction in military spending lower standards of living reduced imports higher taxation currency devaluation progressive rebuilding of its industrial base a cursory review suggests that this will need to be imposed on the us citizenry by circumstance rather than choice posted by peter at 9 07 am 2 comments friday august 21 2009 cloak of dollar illusion the dollar s role as a good store of value is questionable and the currency has a high degree of risk or so says said nobel prize winning economist joseph stiglitz i couldn t agree more the missing part of this article is what would happen if the world attempted to move to a new global reserve currency i suspect that very quickly the great illusion of the us dollar would manifest itself as a gaping chasm the comcommitant fall in the us dollar the us standard of living us consumption and the us economy would plunge the the us and the rest of the world with it into a economic disaster it s not the the gaping chasm isn t here already its just covered by some precipitously placed chinese silk posted by peter at 3 52 pm 0 comments thursday august 20 2009 banananomics but it was a wise man who said all i want to know is where i m going to die so i ll never go there we don t want our country to evolve into the banana republic economy described by keynes follow the link to the featured article from the new york times penned by warren buffet in this article mr buffet makes a few comments reminscent of paul kea...
|
