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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during October 2016;
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economics, the, and, in, what, of, is, mainstream, econometrics, science, be, svensk, universitetsutbildning, fritt, fall, to, recent, comments, lars, syll, some, unsettled, questions, macroeconomic, theory, rabbits, principle, triumph, ideology, over, non, ideological, valuefree, ll, dipped, truth, perils, calling, your, pet, cat, dog, ii, it, takes, make, real, statistical, significance, tests, do, not, validate, models, why, values, cannot, taken, at, face, value, economists, dissing, people, that, want, rethink, bridge, between, model, reality, on, proper, use, mathematics, posts, policy, reading, list, categories, archives,
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alternative hypotheses competing with those utilised by orthodox economists to most market participants and indeed ordinary observers this does not seem like big news in fact this irrationality is no news to the economics profession either john maynard keynes long ago described the stock market as based not on rational individuals struggling to uncover market fundamentals but as a beauty contest in which the winner is the one who guesses best what the judges will say adam smith s invisible hand the idea that free markets lead to efficiency as if guided by unseen forces is invisible at least in part because it is not there for more than 20 years economists were enthralled by so called rational expectations models which assumed that all participants have the same if not perfect information and act perfectly rationally that markets are perfectly efficient that unemployment never exists except when caused by greedy unions or government minimum wages and where there is never any credit rationing that such models prevailed especially in america s graduate schools despite evidence to the contrary bears testimony to a triumph of ideology over science unfortunately students of these graduate programmes now act as policymakers in many countries and are trying to implement programmes based on the ideas that have come to be called market fundamentalism good science recognises its limitations but the prophets of rational expectations have usually shown no such modesty joseph stiglitz share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky economics non ideological and valuefree i ll be dipped 27 oct 2016 at 21 29 posted in economics 3 comments i ve subsequently stayed away from the minimum wage literature for a number of reasons first it cost me a lot of friends people that i had known for many years for instance some of the ones i met at my first job at the university of chicago became very angry or disappointed they thought that in publishing our work we were being traitors to the cause of economics as a whole david card back in 1992 new jersey raised the minimum wage by 18 per cent while its neighbour state pennsylvania left its minimum wage unchanged unemployment in new jersey should according to mainstream economics textbooks have increased relative to pennsylvania however when economists david card and alan krueger gathered information on fast food restaurants in the two states it turned out that unemployment had actually decreased in new jersey relative to that in pennsylvania counter to mainstream demand theory we had an anomalous case of a backward sloping supply curve lo and behold but of course when facts and theory don t agree it s the facts that have to be wrong the inverse relationship between quantity demanded and price is the core proposition in economic science which embodies the pre supposition that human choice behavior is sufficiently rational to allow predictions to be made just as no physicist would claim that water runs uphill no self respecting economist would claim that increases in the minimum wage increase employment such a claim if seriously advanced becomes equivalent to a denial that there is even minimal scientific content in economics and that in consequence economists can do nothing but write as advocates for ideological interests fortunately only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries we have not yet become a bevy of camp following whores james m buchanan in wall street journal april 25 1996 economics non ideological and valuefree i ll be dipped what is truth in economics 27 oct 2016 at 15 11 posted in economics 3 comments in my view scientific theories are not to be considered true or false in constructing such a theory we are not trying to get at the truth or even to approximate to it rather we are trying to organize our thoughts and observations in a useful manner robert aumann what a handy view of science how reassuring for all of you who have always thought that believing in the tooth fairy make you understand what happens to kids teeth now a nobel prize winning economist tells you that if there are such things as tooth fairies or not doesn t really matter scientific theories are not about what is true or false but whether they enable us to organize and understand our observations what aumann and other defenders of scientific storytelling forgets is that potential explanatory power achieved in thought experimental models is not enough for attaining real explanations model explanations are at best conjectures and whether they do or do not explain things in the real world is something we have to test to just believe that you understand or explain things better with thought experiments is not enough without a warranted export certificate to the real world model explanations are pretty worthless proving things in models is not enough truth ought to be as important a concept in economics as it is in real science the perils of calling your pet cat a dog 27 oct 2016 at 11 05 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment since econometrics doesn t content itself with only making optimal predictions but also aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects econometricians need loads of assumptions most important of these are additivity and linearity important simply because if they are not true your model is invalid and descriptively incorrect and when the model is wrong well then it s wrong the assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is in reality linearly related to any predictors and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together this assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly it s a bit like calling your pet cat a dog you can try to get it to go in a kennel or to fetch sticks or to sit when you tell it to but don t be surprised when its behaviour isn t what you expect because even though you ve called it a dog it is in fact a cat similarly if you have described your statistical model inaccurately it won t behave itself and there s no point in interpreting its parameter estimates or worrying about significance tests of confidence intervals the model is wrong andy field svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall ii 26 oct 2016 at 18 02 posted in education school comments off on svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall ii jag sprang nyligen på en sammanställning av genusdoktorsavhandlingar från 2014 många godbitar men en av dem var särskilt anmärkningsvärd nämligen nummer 19 i uppräkningen det handlar om doktorsavhandlingen rum rytm och resande från linköpings universitet pdf sammanställningen sammanfattar avhandlingen undersöker järnvägstationer som fysiska platser och sociala rum ur könsperspektiv kimstad pendeltågsstation norrköpings järnvägsstation och stockholms centralstation ingår i studien resultaten visar att järnvägsstationerna reproducerar könsmaktsordningen och att detta påverkar både män som kvinnor som vistas där en doktorand har alltså ägnat minst 4 5 år och flera miljoner skattekronor åt att besöka järnvägsstationer och komma fram till att järnvägsstationerna reproducerar könsmaktsordningen doktorandens chef har planerat detta arbete och chefens chefer har godkänt det dessutom har en betygskommitté med externa granskare bedömt och skrivit under på att doktorsavhandlingen håller måttet det var katten men det blir värre doktorsavhandlingen sammanfattas på engelska det börjar med results from the study show that individuals in different ways are affected by gendered power relations that dwell in rhythms of collective believes and in shape of materialized objects that encounter the commuters when visiting the railway station while the rhythms of masculine seriality contains believes of males as potentially violent as defenders and as bread winners the rhythms of female seriality contains believes of women as primary mothers and housewives of women as primary victim of sexual violence and of objectification of women s bodies as either decent or as sexually available to heterosexual men rytmer av könsmaktsordningen poetiskt ekvalist ja inför sådant tyckmyckentrutat pseudo vetenskapligt blaj kan man inte annat än taga sig för pannan mitt eget favoritexempel på detta vetenskapliga skojeri är hämtat ur ett nummer av pedagogisk forskning i sverige 2 3 2014 där författaren till artikeln en pedagogisk relation mellan människa och häst på väg mot en pedagogisk filosofisk utforskning av mellanrummet ger följande intressanta programförklaring med en posthumanistisk ansats belyser och reflekterar jag över hur både människa och häst överskrider sina varanden och hur det öppnar upp ett mellanrum med dimensioner av subjektivitet kroppslighet och ömsesidighet och så säger man att svensk universitetsutbildning är i kris undrar varför what it takes to make economics a real science 26 oct 2016 at 09 23 posted in economics 1 comment what is science one brief definition runs a systematic knowledge of the physical or material world most definitions emphasize the two elements in this definition 1 systematic knowledge about 2 the real world without pushing this definitional question to its metaphysical limits i merely want to suggest that if economics is to be a science it must not only develop analytical tools but must also apply them to a world that is now observable or that can be made observable through improved methods of observation and measurement or in the words of the hungarian mathematical economist janos kornai in the real sciences the criterion is not whether the proposition is logically true and tautologically deducible from earlier assumptions the criterion of truth is whether or not the proposition corresponds to reality one of our most distinguished historians of economic thought george stigler has stated that the dominant influence upon the working range of economic theorists is the set of internal values and pressures of the discipline the subjects of study are posed by the unfolding course of scientific developments he goes on to add this is not to say that the environment is without influence but he continues whether a fact or development is significant depends primarily on its relevance to current economic theory what a curious relating of rigor to relevance whether the real world matters depends presumably on its relevance to current economic theory many if not most of today s economic theorists seem to agree with this ordering of priorities today rigor competes with relevance in macroeconomic and monetary theory and in some lines of development macro and monetary theorists like many of their colleagues in micro theory seem to consider relevance to be more or less irrelevant the theoretical analysis in much of this literature rests on assumptions that also fly in the face of the facts another related recent development in which theory proceeds with impeccable logic from unrealistic assumptions to conclusions that contradict the historical record is the recent work on rational expectations i have scolded economists for what i think are the sins that too many of them commit and i have tried to point the way to at least partial redemption this road to salvation will not be an easy one for those who have been seduced by the siren of mathematical elegance or those who all too often seek to test unrealistic models without much regard for the quality or relevance of the data they feed into their equations but let us all continue to worship at the altar of science i ask only that our credo be relevance with as much rigor as possible and not rigor regardless of relevance and let us not be afraid to ask and to try to answer the really big questions robert a gordon share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall 25 oct 2016 at 17 48 posted in education school comments off on svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall samtidigt som urholkningen av högskolan fortsätter finns det ett politiskt tryck på fler utbildningsplatser men ensidiga satsningar på fler platser gynnar varken samhället högskolorna eller de studenter som får utbildning av tvivelaktig kvalitet i nuläget måste högskolans begränsade budgetutrymme användas till att stärka utbildningens kvalitet inte till att bygga ut högskolan ytterligare kvaliteten på högskolan är i dag ifrågasatt den tveksamma kvaliteten syns bland annat i universitetskanslersämbetets kvalitetsutvärderingar där nästan var femte utbildning underkändes en bidragande orsak till den bristande kvaliteten kan vara att antalet studenter har ökat snabbare än resurserna tillåter dessutom har det skett en urholkning av resurserna då ersättningsbeloppen inte räknas upp med de faktiska kostnadsökningarna och dessutom minskas genom ett produktivitetsavdrag samtidigt visar ifau institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering att utbyggnaden av högskolan medfört sämre studentkvalitet detta är en naturlig följd av att övergången till högre studier redan är hög bland ungdomar i de högsta betygsintervallen det finns inte något överskott av högpresterande studenter som kan antas när fler platser tillkommer detta medför att studenter med allt sämre förkunskaper kommer in när högskolan växer dessutom är grundskolan och gymnasiets kvalitet ifrågasatt generellt lärarna måste lägga allt mer tid på att hjälpa studenterna genom utbildningarna vilket tar resurser från övrig undervisning det går inte heller att utesluta att kraven på studenterna sänks ökad genomströmning ger mer resurser till högskolan dagens resurssystem ger tyvärr incitament till högskolorna att godkänna studenter som inte når upp till kraven för godkänt göran arrius håkan regnér linda simonsen bra rutet svenska universitet och högskolor brottas idag med många problem två av de mer akuta är hur man ska hantera en situation med krympande ekonomi och att allt fler av studenterna är dåligt förberedda för högskolestudier varför har det blivit så här yours truly har vid upprepade tillfällen blivit approcherad av media apropå dessa frågor och har då utöver the usual suspects också försökt lyfta en problematik som sällan av rädsla för att inte vara politiskt korrekt lyfts i debatten de senaste femtio åren har vi haft en fullständig explosion av nya studentgrupper som går vidare till universitets och högskolestudier detta är på ett sätt klart glädjande idag har vi lika många doktorander i vårt utbildningssystem som vi hade gymnasister på 1950 talet men denna utbildningsexpansion har tyvärr i mycket skett till priset av försämrade möjligheter för studenterna att tillgodogöra sig högskoleutbildningens kompetenskrav många utbildningar har fallit till föga och sänkt kraven tyvärr är...
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