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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during November 2016;
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s no other ground than hope itself the theoretical conditions that have to be fulfilled for econometrics to really work are nowhere even closely met in reality making outlandish statistical assumptions does not provide a solid ground for doing relevant social science and economics although econometrics have become the most used quantitative methods in economics today it s still a fact that the inferences made from them are as a rule invalid econometrics is basically a deductive method given the assumptions it delivers deductive inferences the problem of course is that we will never completely know when the assumptions are right conclusions can only be as certain as their premises and that also applies to econometrics three suggestions to save econometrics 29 nov 2016 at 11 33 posted in economics statistics econometrics 6 comments reading an applied econometrics paper could leave you with the impression that the economist or any social science researcher first formulated a theory then built an empirical test based on the theory then tested the theory but in my experience what generally happens is more like the opposite with some loose ideas in mind the econometrician runs a lot of different regressions until they get something that looks plausible then tries to fit it into a theory existing or new statistical theory itself tells us that if you do this for long enough you will eventually find something plausible by pure chance this is bad news because as tempting as that final pristine looking causal effect is readers have no way of knowing how it was arrived at there are several ways i ve seen to guard against this 1 use a multitude of empirical specifications to test the robustness of the causal links and pick the one with the best predictive power 2 have researchers submit their paper for peer review before they carry out the empirical work detailing the theory they want to test why it matters and how they re going to do it reasons for inevitable deviations from the research plan should be explained clearly in an appendix by the authors and re approved by referees 3 insist that the paper be replicated firstly by having the authors submit their data and code and seeing if referees can replicate it think this is a low bar most empirical research in top economics journals can t even manage it secondly in the truer sense of replication wait until someone else with another dataset or method gets the same findings in at least a qualitative sense the latter might be too much to ask of researchers for each paper but it is a good thing to have in mind as a reader before you are convinced by a finding all three of these should in my opinion be a prerequisite for research that uses econometrics naturally this would result in a lot more null findings and probably a lot less research perhaps it would also result in fewer attempts at papers which attempt to tell the entire story that is which go all the way from building a new model to finding surprise that even the most rigorous empirical methods support it unlearning economics good suggestions but unfortunately there are many more deep problems with econometrics that have to be solved in econometrics one often gets the feeling that many of its practitioners think of it as a kind of automatic inferential machine input data and out comes causal knowledge this is like pulling a rabbit from a hat great but first you have to put the rabbit in the hat and this is where assumptions come in to the picture the assumption of imaginary superpopulations is one of the many dubious assumptions used in modern econometrics misapplication of inferential statistics to non inferential situations is a non starter for doing proper science and when choosing which models to use in our analyses we cannot get around the fact that the evaluation of our hypotheses explanations and predictions cannot be made without reference to a specific statistical model or framework the probabilistic statistical inferences we make from our samples decisively depends on what population we choose to refer to the reference class problem shows that there usually are many such populations to choose from and that the one we choose decides which probabilities we come up with and a fortiori which predictions we make not consciously contemplating the relativity effects this choice of nomological statistical machines have is probably one of the reasons econometricians have a false sense of the amount of uncertainty that really afflicts their models as economists and econometricians we have to confront the all important question of how to handle uncertainty and randomness should we define randomness with probability if we do we have to accept that to speak of randomness we also have to presuppose the existence of nomological probability machines since probabilities cannot be spoken of and actually to be strict do not at all exist without specifying such system contexts accepting haavelmo s domain of probability theory and sample space of infinite populations just as fisher s hypothetical infinite population von mises s collective or gibbs s ensemble also implies that judgments are made on the basis of observations that are actually never made infinitely repeated trials or samplings never take place in the real world so that cannot be a sound inductive basis for a science with aspirations of explaining real world socio economic processes structures or events it s not tenable economists and econometricians have uncritically and often without arguments come to simply assume that one can apply probability distributions from statistical theory on their own area of research however there are fundamental problems arising when you try to apply statistical models outside overly simple nomological machines like coin tossing and roulette wheels of course one could arguably treat our observational or experimental data as random samples from real populations but probabilistic econometrics does not content itself with that kind of populations instead it creates imaginary populations of parallel universes and assume that our data are random samples from that kind of populations but this is actually nothing but hand waving doing econometrics it s always wise to remember c s peirce s remark that universes are not as common as peanuts teaching to the test fel väg framåt för svensk skola 28 nov 2016 at 19 13 posted in education school comments off on teaching to the test fel väg framåt för svensk skola det är värt att notera att kunskapsnedgången i de internationella undersökningarna överhuvudtaget inte avspeglas i resultaten på de nationella proven jag är medveten om att axlarna i figuren nedan inte är optimalt skalade en tolkning av detta är att undervisningen idag är så inriktad på proven att eleverna trots fallande underliggande kunskapsnivå ändå lyckas rätt hyfsat på dem när eleverna ställs inför nya typer av uppgifter står de emellertid sig slätt detta skulle i så fall tyda på att provens utformning gör dem lätta att genomskåda och lära sig prestera bra på utan att eleverna tillägnat sig djupare ämneskunskaper och ämnesförståelse dessa siffror visar vad som borde vara allmänt känt inom utbildningsforskningen utvärderingssystemet påverkar verksamheten i betydligt högre grad än styrdokument och allmänna målsättningar elever tenderar att bli bättre på just den typ av prov som används som utvärderingsinstrument men inte nödvändigtvis på andra typer av prov även om ett större inslag av teaching to the test inte definitionsmässigt är dåligt så tyder inte den svenska erfarenheten på att det är en självklar väg till bättre resultat visst är det möjligt att utvecklingen hade varit ännu sämre utan de nationella provens ökade betydelse men samtidigt finns det en uppenbar möjlighet att motsatsen är sann jonas vlachos the elite illusion 28 nov 2016 at 15 25 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the elite illusion the results reported here suggest that an exam school education produces only scattered gains for applicants even among students with baseline scores close to or above the mean in the target school because the exam school experience is associated with sharp increases in peer achievement these results weigh against the importance of peer effects in the education production function of course test scores and peer effects are only part of the exam school story it may be that preparation for exam school entrance is itself worth while the many clubs and activities found at some exam schools may expose students to ideas and concepts not easily captured by achievement tests or our post secondary outcomes it is also possible that exam school graduates earn higher wages a question we plan to explore in future work still the estimates reported here suggest that any labor market gains are likely to come through channels other than peer composition and increased cognitive achievement our results are also relevant to the economic debate around school quality and school choice as with the jump in house prices at school district boundaries heavy rates of exam school oversubscription suggest that parents believe peer composition matters a great deal for their children s welfare the fact that we find little support for causal peer effects suggests that parents either mistakenly equate attractive peers with high value added or that they value exam schools for reasons other than their impact on learning both of these scenarios reduce the likelihood that school choice in and of itself has strong salutary demand side effects in education production a abdulkadiroglu j d angrist and p a pathak results based on one of the latest fads in econometrics regression discontinuity design if unfamiliar with the technique here s a video giving some of the basics the economist economics prone to fads and methodological crazes 27 nov 2016 at 18 49 posted in economics 2 comments when a hot new tool arrives on the scene it should extend the frontiers of economics and pull previously unanswerable questions within reach what might seem faddish could in fact be economists piling in to help shed light on the discipline s darkest corners some economists however argue that new methods also bring new dangers rather than pushing economics forward crazes can lead it astray especially in their infancy a paper by angus deaton a nobel laureate and expert data digger and nancy cartwright an economist sic at durham university argues that randomised control trials a current darling of the discipline enjoy misplaced enthusiasm rcts involve randomly assigning a policy to some people and not to others so that researchers can be sure that differences are caused by the policy analysis is a simple comparison of averages between the two mr deaton and ms cartwright have a statistical gripe they complain that researchers are not careful enough when calculating whether two results are significantly different from one another as a consequence they suspect that a sizeable portion of published results in development and health economics using rcts are unreliable with time economists should learn when to use their shiny new tools but there is a deeper concern that fashions and fads are distorting economics by nudging the profession towards asking particular questions and hiding bigger ones from view mr deaton s and ms cartwright s fear is that rcts yield results while appearing to sidestep theory and that without knowing why things happen and why people do things we run the risk of worthless causal fairy story theorising and we have given up on one of the central tasks of economics another fundamental worry is that by offering alluringly simple ways of evaluating certain policies economists lose sight of policy questions that are not easily testable using rcts such as the effects of institutions monetary policy or social norms the economist for my own take on the rct fad here here and here still no 1 27 nov 2016 at 11 58 posted in varia 1 comment om ekonomiskt vetande fronesis nr 54 55 26 nov 2016 at 15 37 posted in economics comments off on om ekonomiskt vetande fronesis nr 54 55 efter den globala finanskrisen 2008 har den ekonomiska vetenskapen hamnat i blickfånget studentrörelser och heterodoxa ekonomer har kritiserat det dominerande ekonomiska paradigmet och krävt ökad pluralism den senaste tidens politiska utveckling har blottat nyliberalismens brister och aktualiserat frågan om dess koppling till den ekonomiska vetenskapen i fronesis nr 54 55 fördjupar vi oss i det ekonomiska vetandets förutsättningar vänstern har länge inriktat sitt samhällsteoretiska och politiska intresse mot kulturella och symboliska aspekter av makt och dominans men har mer eller mindre lämnat det ekonomiska fältet därhän med fronesis nr 54 55 vill vi röra oss bortom en simpel kritik av nationalekonomin och fördjupa förståelsen av villkoren för det ekonomiska vetandet numret introducerar för en svensk publik en rad centrala samtida teoretiker som belyser frågorna ur olika perspektiv innehåll kajsa borgnäs och anders hylmö det ekonomiska vetandet i förändring ladda ner som pdf anders hylmö den moderna nationalekonomin som vetenskaplig stil och disciplin dimitris milonakis lärdomar från krisen marion fourcade étienne ollion och yann algan ekonomernas överlägsenhet kajsa borgnäs utanför boxen eller vad är heterodox nationalekonomi lars pålsson syll tony lawson och kritiken av den nationalekonomiska vetenskapen en introduktion tony lawson den heterodoxa ekonomins natur josef taalbi realistisk ekonomisk teori erik bengtsson den heterodoxa nationalekonomins materiella förutsättningar julie a nelson genusmetaforer och nationalekonomi linda nyberg nyliberalism politik och ekonomi philip mirowski den politiska rörelsen som inte vågade säga sitt namn jason read en genealogi över homo oeconomicus kajsa borgnäs den vetenskapliga ekonomins politiska makt daniel hirschman och elizabeth popp berman skapar nationalekonomer politik peter gerlach marika lindgren åsbrink och ola pettersson intervjuade av daniel mathisen allt annat lika the use of mathematics in physics and economics 26 nov 2016 at 12 31 posted in economics comments off on the use of mathematics in physics and economics my idea is to examine the most well known works of a selection of the most famous neoclassical economists in the period from 1945 to the present my survey of well known works by four famous mathematical neoclassical economists samuelson arrow debreu prescott who all won the nobel prize for economics has not revealed any precise explanations or successful predictions this supports my conjecture that the use of mathematics in mainstream or neoclassical economics has not produced any precise explanations or successful predictions this i would claim is the main difference between neoclassical economics and physics where both precise explanations and successful predictions have often been obtained by the use of mathematics donald gillies share 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