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prediction is handled as i ve explained in more detail here here and here in fact even after the valid time of the forecast has passed and even assuming that precise observations are available verification is still not a trivial matter returning to my previous example of a rain forecast if the forecast said 70 chance of rain then either a rainy or dry day is an entirely acceptable outcome so was that forecast inherently unverifiable the inevitable answer is that yes of course it was even for a quantitative forecast tomorrow will have a max of 12c with an uncertainty of 1c it will only be on the rare occasion that the observed temperature falls far enough outside the plausible range of forecast uncertainty that one might be able to say that the forecast failed to verify in fact if we assume the forecast uncertainty is gaussian or any other continuous unbounded function there is no threshold at which the forecast fails to verify in absolute terms you might simply have got the 1 chance in 1000 that the target was 3 standard deviations from the forecast mean indeed with one forecast every day you d expect to see this roughly once every 3 years note that we check whether the data lie within the uncertainty of the forecast not whether the central forecast falls within the observational uncertainty of the data see here for more on this once you have more than a handful of forecasts however you can usually make a realistic assessment of the reliability of the system as a whole if many days are 3 standard deviations from the mean you ll probably judge it more likely that the system is bad than that you happened to hit the 1 in 10 100 unlucky streak in a good system but the latter can never be truly proven false of course conversely if the forecast system has validated consistently over a period of time we will probably trust today s forecast but even if the system is known to be statistically perfect there is still a 1 in 1000 chance that it will be 3 standard deviations wrong tomorrow each day is a unique forecast based on the current atmospheric state which has not occurred before as i explained before the forecast uncertainty is fundamentally epistemic not aleatory so there is no sense in which there is a correct or objective probabilistic forecast in the first place the uncertainty is fundamentally a description of our ignorance not some intrinsic randomness obviously it would take a long time to collect adequate statistics from successive 100 year climate forecasts if we started now and given the rate of ongoing model development this approach could never tell us much about the skill of the most up to date model anyway since they are replaced every few years we can however use simulations of the historical record and the present to test how well the models can hindcast variations in the climate which are known to have occurred in its simplest form this sort of test provides only a lower bound on forecast errors since the models are largely built and tuned to simulate existing observational data when the models fail to reproduce the data of course it calls their validity into question at least it does if the data are reliable a striking example of models teaching us about reality is in the recent resolution of the tropospheric data model incompatibility in favour of the models ok i m over egging things a little perhaps looking back over the longer scale we have hansen s famous forecast from 1988 which has proved to be spot on over the subsequent 17 years in fact the simplicity of the physics means that one thing we really can forecast quite confidently is a continued global warming in coming decades the ipcc tar said it was likely to continue at 0 1 0 2c decade for several decades to come and although this perhaps could be nudged marginally higher we are getting close to the 0 2 limit it won t be far wrong a slightly more sophisticated general technique known as cross validation involves witholding some historical data training the model on the rest of the data and seeing if it correctly predicts the data which were witheld in order to avoid accusations of cheating it is necessary to use some sort of automatic tuning technique if the data take the form of a time series which is split into an initial training interval followed by a forecast interval then this accurately mimics the situation of a real forecast it is also how new versions of weather prediction systems are tested prior to introduction repeat the forecasts of the past year say and adopt the new system if it shows greater skill than the current one we demonstrated a simple example of this cross validation approach in this paper a few years ago and broadly similar methods can be found throughout the more prediction focussed corners of the climate research literature eg reto knutti used a neural network in this forthcoming paper training it on half the data and verifying it on the other half these sort of formal forecast methodologies have not been widely undertaken in the gcm building community in the past partly because until recently there were no computationally affordable automatic tuning methods and partly because most climate scientists don t have much of a background in prediction and estimation they are primarily physical scientists with an interest in understanding processes rather than forecasters whose main aim is to predict the future but there is now plenty of work going to bridge this gap and here s the obligatory plug for the modest contribution we re making in this area climate scientists may never get to the level that weather forecasting is at in terms of attaching clear and reliable probabilities to all of our predictions but we are definitely making progress posted by james annan at saturday february 18 2006 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday february 17 2006 tea tray tobogganing the uk doesn t have a winter really just a colder part of the annual 12 month rainy season so we don t take winter sports too seriously by which i mean things involving snow and ice football and rugby in the pouring rain is quite wintry enough for my tastes the one thing we do enjoy when a snowy day comes along is sliding down hills on tea trays so it is only fitting that our first medal in this year s winter olympics is a silver in the women s tea tray event ok they don t really call it that but they might as well she has to go abroad to do any proper training so it s really quite a feat the japanese are rather miffed as they have a serious winter sports industry and have yet to get a medal i m sure they will overtake us soon enough though the only other thing we do moderately competently is curling and there are two more medal chances there but i don t think there is anything else to hope for in fact britain has won an average of one medal per games since the winter olympics began in chamonix in 1924 posted by james annan at friday february 17 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest alarming new research a report from the tyndall centre is getting some attention on the the bbc the uk could face major flooding and tropical temperatures by the year 3000 if greenhouse gas emissions are not sharply reduced a new study says the report from the tyndall centre for climate change research claims britain could look radically different with sea levels rising as much as 11 4m that s a rather garbled take on what is a very speculative bit of research the high end numbers are based on projections in which mankind burns not just all the oil and coal but even the exotic fossil fuel resources like methane clathrates at a rapidly increasing rate over the next few centuries they base the emissions on the old is92a from the ipcc sar which was already known to be an outdated and fairly extreme scenario at the time of the tar and then extrapolate up from that over the subsequent centuries while it is obviously fun to play around with ideas like this the suggestion that it has much to do with current policy decisions is tenuous at best i m sure that the people s federation of great europia or however the world is organised by then will be quite capable of making their own decisions over carbon emissions in the 24th century and i doubt they will feel bound by our opinions on the matter anyway if the last remnants of humanity are going to be eking out a perilous existence on the fringes of the arctic it s hard to see how they will also be burning fossil fuels at more than 6 times the current rate before blaming the bbc for misrepresenting the research have a look at the press release new science shows urgent action needed today on climate change and the report itself for a much more realistic look at mitigation strategies try this recent well written realclimate article instead i note in passing that the tyndall centre report misrepresents the climateprediction net results although it doesn t directly affect the results they generated they only use it to support their claim that things could turn out even worse given the misleading manner in which those results themselves were presented i suppose it s hardly surprising posted by james annan at friday february 17 2006 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday february 15 2006 more wailing about whales in another you just can t believe they d do that attempt to deal with the whale meat mountain it s getting fed to schoolchildren again of course there has been a full and frank discussion in the media about the astonishingly high level of mercury routinely found in whalemeat as any search on a major news site will show perhaps the real goal of this whale research is to look into minamata disease this is the same japan that is currently banning usa beef imports due to the supposed threat of bse posted by james annan at wednesday february 15 2006 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 14 2006 unhchr slams japan on racism doudou diene s report on his visit to japan is published at last available here it s not exactly diplomatic 69 after having collected and analysed the views of all parties concerned the special rapporteur reached the conclusion that racial discrimination and xenophobia do exist in japan and that these affect three circles of discriminated groups the national minorities the buraku people the ainu and the people of okinawa people from and descendants of people from former japanese colonies korea and china and foreigners and migrants from other asian countries and from the rest of the world 70 the special rapporteur noticed that the manifestations of such racial discrimination and xenophobia are manifold first of all they are of a social and economic nature all surveys and indicators point to the fact that minorities live in a situation of marginalization and economic and social vulnerability in the fields of employment housing marriage pensions health and education such inequalities vis à vis the rest of the japanese society should urgently be addressed 71 secondly the discrimination is also of a political nature the special rapporteur noticed the invisibility of the national minorities in state institutions in particular the parliament and the government for example the ainu have only had one congressman in the national parliament whom the special rapporteur met but have none at present such invisibility shows the depth of exclusion and increases the sense of discrimination and marginalization of the communities concerned who are given no opportunity to participate in the managing of their present and future affairs the main conclusions are that the japanese govt should do something about it v recommendations 74 the government at the highest levels should officially and publicly recognize the existence of racial discrimination and xenophobia in japanese society it should be done by conducting a survey to find out the present conditions of each discriminated group in japan the government at the highest levels should also officially and publicly recognize historical and cultural roots of racial discrimination and xenophobia in the japanese society and express in clear and strong terms its political will to combat it such a message will not only create the political conditions of combating discrimination and xenophobia at all levels of society but also facilitate the promotion of the complex but profound process of multiculturalism in japanese society moreover in the context of globalization such a message will undoubtedly enhance the standing and image of japan in the world and in particular in the countries economically related to japan and whose citizens or people migrate or visit japan japanese citizens who are increasingly visiting foreign countries for tourism or business related reasons will be in a stronger moral position not only to combat the manifestations of discrimination they may be subjected to but also to promote the image of their country 75 the government should strongly condemn and oppose to any statement by public officials which tolerates or even encourages racial discrimination and xenophobia in accordance with article 4 of the international convention on the elimination of all forms of racial discrimination ratified by japan and in particular its paragraph c which provides that states shall not permit public authorities or public institutions national or local to promote or incite racial discrimination and in accordance with article 20 of the international covenant on civil and political rights also ratified by japan which prohibits any advocacy of national racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination hostility or violence 76 the government and the parliament diet should as a matter of urgency proceed to the adoption of a national law against racism discrimination and xenophobia giving effect into its domestic legal order to the provisions of its constitution and of the international instruments to which japan is a party which include the international convention on the elimination of all forms of racial discrimination the international covenant on civil and political rights and the international covenant on economic social and cultural rights such a domestic law should penalize racial discrimination in all its forms and specifically discrimination in the field of employment housing and marriage and guarantee access to effective protection and remedies including compensation to victims declare an offence all propaganda and all organizations which are based on racial superiority or hatred and promote or incite racial discrimination as provided for in article 4 of the international convention on the elimination of all forms of racial discrimination in this regard the special rapporteur shares the view of the committee on the elimination of discrimination that the reservation made b...
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