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d close to zero bitcoin has therefore clearly decoupled from the development direction of the technology sector source nsquaredcrypto in stark contrast to the nasdaq correlation bitcoin has clearly approached gold s price performance with the correlation rising to over 50 percent in may this is a clear paradigm shift because back in november the correlation between these two asset classes was practically negligible the stock market could possibly suffer from the may effect which is based on the differences in the stock market s seasonal returns in the summer the volatility of the stock market has traditionally been lower at the same time bitcoin s breakaway from the correlation of the technology sector may mean that the leading cryptocurrency is more resilient to the may phenomenon source kaiko supply delta indicates a market bottom despite the weakness of the technical indicators the bitcoin supply delta metric red reflects the reached market bottom the structure of the supply delta now looks similar to 2019 2020 before the spot price surge towards the 2021 double peak cycle supply delta is an indicator originally developed by capriole investments and it compares the behavior of short term and long term investors supply delta is obtained from the difference between short term investor supply sths and long term investor supply lths using the formula supply delta sths sma sths lths sma lths source glassnode fed s final interest rate hike the world s leading central bank fed announced its latest interest rate policy on wednesday which ended up with an expected 25 basis point increase the crypto market reacted moderately positively to the interest rate decision although the interest rate decision does not contain any drama the market is clearly looking forward to june 14th fomc meeting which is widely believed to end the interest rate hikes according to cme data up to 97 8 percent of investors believe that interest rate hikes have now reached their legal point and 2 2 speculate that the fed will even lower its interest rate policy the market will receive the interest rate peak positively and a rate reduction would be rocket fuel for many assets so volatility is definitely ahead source cme some us analysts such as luke gromen have long speculated that the fed will turn its monetary policy from quantitative tightening qt to easing qe however the change of qt to the qe line is just a projection for the time being a sudden return to the qe and an increase in liquidity would definitely strengthen the position of high beta risk assets investment strategist raoul pal has been analyzing cryptocurrencies and the macro market outlook pal estimated previously that the central bank fed would turn its hawkish monetary policy towards a dovish one in 2023 pal sees the spot price of bitcoin as strongly correlated with the m2 monetary aggregate i e the money supply bitcoin s cyclical price development has historically risen as the money supply expanded and fallen as the supply became scarcer sources raoul pal gmi a meme coin renaissance and altseason the ta of week 15 pondered the possibility of a new altseason and the prophecy sort of came true the early days of may have seen a possible new renaissance of meme coins when the cryptocurrency pepe pepe has risen more than 2000 percent since its launch on a weekly basis alone there is more than 600 percent upward movement however pepe s momentum has not caught on with other meme coins such as dogecoin which elon musk previously tried to uplift with his twitter frenzy it is still a very speculative token whose background or price movements are not certain consequently investors should remain cautious pepe pepe is not currently listed on coinmotion s platform however it can be purchased through our own otc service source coingecko what are we following right now the debate surrounding the regulation of the blockchain industry continues to rage in the united states robert f kennedy junior argued that excessive regulation is a mistake because it drives innovation abroad at the same time experts have praised the european union s mica regulation cryptocurrencies led by bitcoin along with other crypto technologies are a major innovation engine it is a mistake for the u s government to hobble the industry and drive innovation elsewhere biden s proposed 30 tax on cryptocurrency mining is a bad idea robert f kennedy jr robertkennedyjr may 3 2023 at the beginning of the year american technology entrepreneur and investor balaji srinivasan bet on bitcoin s rise to a million dollars the condition was that the spot price would rise to the target price within 90 days i e three months now balaji has admitted his loss and allocated 1 5 million dollars e g for the bitcoin core development team i just burned a million to tell you they re printing trillions pic twitter com px5622rjuo balaji balajis may 2 2023 validus power corp s greg foss estimates the banking sector s losses to reach 10 trillion at the same time foss explains why bitcoin is an excellent insurance when risks escalate stay in the loop of the latest crypto events bitcoin still in accumulation cycle despite the correction exploring ethereum s shapella upgrade what you need to know how can decentralization save us in a world driven by ai beginner s guide how to invest in bitcoin bitcoin breaks the 30 000 key resistance level ethereum s shanghai upgrade the market reflects tightening regulatory environment what has happened in the crypto market in q1 and what is to come why is bitcoin rising in 2023 get started with bitcoin litecoin ethereum aave usdc stellar ripple join coinmotion and buy your first cryptocurrencies within minutes let s go the views thoughts and opinions expressed in the text belong to the author and not necessarily to the author s employer organization committee or other group or individual bitcoin still in accumulation cycle despite the correction https coinmotion com the correction wont stop bitcoins accumulation cycle wed 26 apr 2023 10 58 02 0000 https coinmotion com p 69341 the technical analysis of week 16 interprets the latest movements of the crypto market with the help of technical and fundamental instruments we map e g bitcoin s correction and its triple bottom structure in addition ta argues why bitcoin is still in the accumulation cycle despite the spot price weakness the mood of the crypto market has been slightly subdued during the past seven days but by wednesday you can see clear optimism in the price movements of the leading cryptocurrency bitcoin bitcoin has weakened by about 7 percent since last week with the smart contract platform ethereum weakening by more than 11 in the background of ethereum s drop you can see the negative sell the news effect after the shapella shanghai capella upgrade read exploring ethereum s shapella upgrade what you need to know from a purely technical point of view bitcoin passed its critical inflection point at the turn of the year where the descending and ascending trend lines meet white the point acts as a watershed and defines the market from 2021 until the halving year of 2024 at the same time bitcoin has formed a parabolic trendline green from december 2022 until today and the breaking of the green parabola from late spring would generate short term selling pressure the parabola is now steepening considerably demanding a decisive price movement from bitcoin yellow symbol bitcoin s course jumped from the surface of the parabola in a textbook manner the night before wednesday but it remains to be seen whether the move will be enough to save the technical setup sources timo oinonen cryptoquant bitcoin is still strongly in an accumulation cycle turquoise looking at the 2024 halving which is leading bitcoin toward higher price levels the distribution cycle purple extending to 2021 ended at the end of 2022 marking the end of the long bear market bitcoin s projection chart below derived from 2017 shows that the cryptocurrency has passed its main resistance level bitcoin is now heading towards its 42 331 fair price and our 46 092 target price sources timo oinonen cryptoquant the material indicators heatmap shows how selling pressure drove bitcoin s spot price down last week meanwhile the heat map indicates a looming support zone below 27 000 cumulative volume delta cvd indicates that market liquidity has risen to the level of mid april i e the highest reading in two weeks at the same time whales are clearly on the buying side source material indicators bitcoin s 70 percent price jump at the beginning of the year can be considered as a remarkable feat when you add the weakness of the macroeconomics to the equation according to reventure consulting the central bank fed continues to tighten the economy at a record breaking rate reducing the money supply the most in 90 years the contraction of the m2 monetary aggregate was in similar numbers for the last time in the 1930s source reventure consulting although the weekly price development has been clearly subdued bitcoin managed to rise from the level of 27 000 to the level of 28 000 in a day climbing three percent in the time window of a week bitcoin has sunk by about seven percent following the general correction rules higher beta tokens have suffered significantly more than bitcoin with chainlink and uniswap down nearly 15 percent in a week the correlation between bitcoin and small cap tokens remains strong the mainstream stock index s p 500 is down a couple of percent from last week and gold weakened by 0 4 from last week 7 day price performance bitcoin btc 6 6 ethereum eth 11 litecoin ltc 10 5 aave aave 13 chainlink link 14 8 uniswap uni 13 5 stellar xlm 9 8 xrp 11 5 get started with bitcoin litecoin ethereum aave usdc stellar ripple join coinmotion and buy your first cryptocurrencies within minutes let s go s p 500 index 2 gold 0 4 active addresses rising after the triple bottom structure the triple bottom structure of active addresses presented in the previous ta of week 9 is clearly coming to fruition on chain data shows how the number of active addresses 30 day weighted moving average generated three individual price bottoms in 2018 2019 and the current 2021 2023 cycle is creating a similar structure we can observe how the number of active addresses started to decline already in the summer of 2021 effectively acting as a leading indicator of the spot price therefore the price development of spring 2021 can be considered a de facto peak supported by fundamentals while the peak of november 2021 can be considered secondary in addition to the triple bottom structure the number of active addresses blue is increasing mirroring bitcoin s increasing network activity together these factors allow the spot price to rise gradually in 2023 sources timo oinonen cryptoquant the accumulation cycle still intact despite the recent correction bitcoin has moved into a 10 percent correction after ascending almost 100 percent during early 2023 while the price action looks bad traders should still remember to stay calm from a purely technical point of view bitcoin passed its critical inflection point at the turn of the year where the descending and ascending trend lines met black the point acts as a technical watershed and defines the market from 2021 until the halving year of 2024 in early 2023 bitcoin has been able to rise above the realized price grey indicator the realized price is important because it represents the average price of all bitcoin purchases at the same time the realized price illustrates that average bitcoin buyers are making a profit on their investments in the broader picture bitcoin s market behavior can be segmented into accumulation turquoise and distribution purple phases which together form a multi year series of cycles institutional money has traditionally favored accumulation cycles while retail investors have been active in distribution cycles bitcoin s history is also defined by halving events which are always preceded by a pre halving accumulation cycle turquoise despite the falling spot price bitcoin s exchange stablecoin ratio yellow esr is currently acting as a leading indicator to bitcoin and other digital assets in correlation the esr and bitcoin s spot price converged from 2021 to 2022 however last year s selling pressure broke their correlation pivoting its path back in late 2022 the exchange stablecoin ratio is again reaching towards new highs in the current market structure esr acts as a magnet to bitcoin s spot price as an epilogus bitcoin s market structure is still supported by multiple technical and on chain factors the multi year inflection point backs bitcoin technically additionally the leading cryptocurrency is supported by realized price growing esr divergence and pre halving accumulation cycle sources timo oinonen cryptoquant mvrv indicator reaching 11 month highs the mvrv indicator which describes bitcoin s valuation level has risen to the level of 1 38 representing the highest reading in 11 months mvrv dropped well below one last fall and reached its lowest reading of 0 76 in november 2022 amid the selling pressure the low mvrv numbers at the end of the year reflected the undervaluation of bitcoin and the downward mvrv trend simultaneously depicted the selling pressure reaching its saturation point at the same time the realized value of bitcoin exceeded the market value reducing incentives to sell the mvrv indicator is calculated by dividing bitcoin s market value by the realized market value and was developed by david puell and murad mahmudov in 2018 the puell multiple which has been involved in technical analyses is also named after david puell bitcoin is considered overvalued when mvrv exceeds 3 7 and correspondingly mvrv indicates bitcoin is undervalued when it falls below 1 source lookintobitcoin focus on fed s fomc next week the central bank fed s fomc meeting will be held again on may 3rd i e in about a week investors continue to closely monitor the liquidity situation and interest rate policy of central banks whose impact on high beta cryptocurrencies is particularly pronounced at the same time regional differentiation can be seen in the policies of the central banks with the western ones pursuing stricter policies and the central banks of asia inclined to stimulus according to cme data 76 7 percent of investors believe the fed will end up raising interest rates by 25 basis points while 23 3 of investors believe interest rates will remain unchanged the fed s hikes are clearly reaching their peak as the increases at the turn of the year were still at 75 basis points source cme some us analysts such as luke gromen have long speculated that the fed will turn its monetary policy from quantitative tightening qt to easing qe however the change of qt to the qe line is just a projection for the time being a sudden return to the qe and an increase in liquidity would definitely strengthen the positi...
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