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edcar and sedgefield labour s majority over the tories was over 40 in 1997 and substantially above 30 in 2001 out west in wakefield purple it wasn t quite so emphatic they were weighing the vote in 1997 at least but they didn t need to use a livestock scale there s not a lot to say about the trend in sedgefield and wakefield other than it s downward it is interesting though that the downward trend extends to the difference between 2015 and 2017 it s hard to overstate how unusual this is labour took 30 4 of the vote in 2015 and 40 in 2017 and a rising tide does tend to lift all boats not wilson and creagh though redcar and newcastle n are different again those readybrek columns with the orange outlines indicate majorities over the lib dems the tories being pushed into third place and in 2010 in redcar a lib dem win from labour redcar and newcastle n were already third party curious in 2005 and agreed with nick in quite a big way in 2010 in an earlier post i argued that one of the key factors in british politics this century has been the five million voters labour lost between the two victories of 1997 and 2005 and all the people who thought like them over time many perhaps most will have got the habit of staying at home at election time but many will have taken the opportunity in 2005 10 15 to cast an anti system sod the lot of em vote for the lib dems for the bnp for ukip roll that bloc of voters forward to 2017 and 2019 and the only question is how many of those people would be open to corbyn s anti establishment appeal and how many would prefer their anti system politics with a definite right wing stamp what made the none of the above vote particularly explosive in some labour dominated areas was a second factor the greater strength and legitimacy of the far right in some areas than others this is a factor that feeds through from 2005 on first in higher votes for far right parties then in substantially higher votes for ukip and then in 2017 in blunting the edge of corbyn s anti establishment appeal local factors will be involved here the bnp got more than 8 of the vote in eight constituencies in 2005 and twelve in 2010 including five in both and they were all labour seats how do our four northern constituencies with their people s vote mps who were definitely not heading for the scrapyard score on these metrics here s the far right vote in those constituencies going back to 1997 under this heading i m including the bnp national front and english democrats but also ukip the brexit party the referendum party and veritas ah remember veritas no seriously do you remember veritas well why would you a definite presence in 2005 albeit not rising to a saved deposit two separate parties in wakefield totalled 5 of the vote a much stronger showing with the odd saved deposit in 2010 and this in turn was a base to build on in 2015 when the lib dems had shown their true colours and a lot of sod the lot of them voters were looking for a home as we see below this plug ugly chart suggests what happened to the lib dem vote in 2015 the left hand column is the drop in lib dem vote share between 2010 and 2015 the right hand column shows the gain in vote share by the tories and labour combined hideous blue and red check and the gain in votes by ukip purple i m now regretting using the parties actual colours although in my defence brexit party sky blue would have been even worse than purple to borrow a line from graham norton people worry that this kind of polarisation could lead to clashes clashes i ll say there ll be clashes you may wish to scroll down at this point anyway i think what we see in these constituencies especially in newcastle n and redcar is disillusionment with labour feeding a none of the above vote for the lib dems their vote in turn slumps with the disillusioning experience of the coalition giving the local far right material to build a substantial ukip vote in 2015 but that vote ebbs away in 2017 what with people not caring about brexit any more leaving our four mps sitting pretty on a reduced but still substantial majority with the threat from the lib dems seen off and ukip out of the picture it was happy days where else were none of the above voters going to go after all here s that first chart again extended slightly this is what happened in those four constituencies in 2019 in more detail leave and remain represent the combined changes in vote share of parties unambiguously committed to one or the other constituency labour remain leave result mary creagh wakefield 9 9 1 9 8 4 lab loss catherine mckinnell newcastle upon tyne north 9 9 8 4 4 9 lab hold phil wilson sedgefield 16 9 3 6 13 6 lab loss anna turley redcar 18 1 0 6 20 lab loss it would be hard to argue that those results are the natural consequence of insufficient sympathy with the people s vote campaign noticeably the one constituency where the remain vote increased more than the leave vote was the one that labour held not to mention what it said about brexit in labour s manifesto for the 2019 election labour will give the people the final say on brexit within three months of coming to power a labour government will secure a sensible deal and within six months we will put that deal to a public vote alongside the option to remain a labour government will implement whatever the people decide short of actually using the phrase people s vote you couldn t get a much clearer endorsement of what those four mps had demanded seems like this wasn t a good idea after all not that you d have known it from the post election comments from phil wilson he didn t seem to think losing his seat had anything to do with his or labour s position on brexit in fact it didn t have anything to do with him or the labour party more generally at all i know we talk about policies and empathy with the electorate none of that s important the one thing the one aspect of the labour party in fact of any political party that wants to be in government people take the most notice of is the leader he also said that a leader who just perpetuates corbynism or that kind of far left kind of politics would be the wrong kind but maybe that doesn t come under policies anna turley more pithily went for i lost my redcar seat thanks to jeremy corbyn and i m furious turley seems to have been shooting for some sort of gold medal in chutzpah she acknowledges that labour s position on brexit was a vote loser for every time brexit was raised on the doorsteps the leadership was raised four more then puts the blame more specifically on the way that labour s position kept changing instead of strong leadership and a clear position then we have had three years of u turns triangulation and dancing on pinheads then acknowledges her own contribution to division in the party and confusion among voters i have never been able to tell my constituents what labour s brexit position truly was only my own there s something deeply unserious here no one can look at the charts above and think that those three losses came out of a blue sky labour support in those areas had been ebbing away for the best part of two decades after 2010 the risk of an insurgent party rallying the sod the lot of them vote and the danger that that insurgent party would come from the far right was obvious even in april 2019 it was radiantly clear that boris johnson could capitalise on brexit or rather on the weak public awareness of what brexit was and the correspondingly strong desire to have somebody say that it was now done and that nigel farage could at the very least make trouble for labour people like turley and mckinnell following the lead of keir starmer insisted nevertheless that labour should stop its fence sitting stop treating the 2016 brexit referendum result as untouchable and formally commit to opening a route whereby it could be reversed less than a year later it was radiantly clear that painting a remain target on labour s back had not after all been the way to win labour hearts and minds our doughty people s vote champions knew exactly what the problem was the party had the wrong leader also people didn t like the way labour s brexit policy kept changing but that was the leader s fault as well this revised analysis had the great advantage that it didn t require anyone to reassess the effect of their own political commitments or indeed to take responsibility for anything anyone that is apart from one man who nobody liked anyway but to be fair labour had a new leader by the time of the july 2024 general election and they did have a pretty good election catherine mckinnell was re elected with an increased majority anna turley stood again in redcar and won while mary creagh returned as mp for coventry east you d think that losing a previously safe seat would be the end of an mp s career but apparently that s not the case at all phil smith the fourth people s voter isn t in the commons but that s mainly because he s in the lords also a labour government was elected of course but labour hadn t won by making a stronger commitment to europe in fact the manifesto its cover resplendent with a full length picture of keir starmer stated quite firmly there will be no return to the single market the customs union or freedom of movement strange to think of mckinnell and friends running on that policy even stranger to see the guy who floated the remain option in the first place putting his name to it but i m forgetting the 2019 election wasn t about brexit it was all about the leader new leader new labour something like that there are a number of possible interpretations of this course of events ranging from father dougal esque levels of naive idiocy to a downright sinister degree of reckless double dealing i mean perhaps those four mps genuinely believed a people s vote would be a vote winner and genuinely overlooked all the evidence to the contrary not to mention the indications that it was a hugely divisive topic within the party and maybe they genuinely forgot all about it the moment it was adopted as party policy meaning that in december it genuinely didn t occur to them that it might have had something to do with the result that s possible although in that case i might recommend one of those cognitive tests that donald trump apparently does so well on it s also possible that bringing the party back under the control of the right was the goal all along that the people s vote campaign was only important to these people as a means to that end and that throwing the 2019 election was acceptable collateral damage it s also possible that genuine enthusiasm for the european project played a part in the enthusiasm for a second referendum although we can t put much weight on this without wondering what happened to it after the 12th of december 2019 ultimately cynical partisan recklessness seems the simplest and most comprehensive explanation with oblivious stupidity trailing in second place here s the story as i see it once upon a time there were a lot of labour mps who cared about working people particularly their constituents but otherwise weren t really very political at all they certainly weren t left wing unless of course you asked them outright in which case they were on the left because everyone in labour is on the left and how dare you suggest otherwise then there was new labour the tidal wave of relief at finally getting the tories out boosted by genuine enthusiasm for what looked like a fresh new way of doing politics took tory seats all over the country and lifted safe labour seats to whole new levels of safety and labour mps who weren t very political and who knew their seats were safe did what you d expect them to do not very much then people got a look at the new government the first labour election victory since 1974 the first labour government elected with a workable majority since 1945 and found it a bit of an anti climax this led in turn to the big non vote of 2001 the rise in the lib dem vote and the first stirrings of the far right more than stirrings in some areas there were fifteen constituencies where far right candidates kept their deposits in 2005 2010 or both all of them labour at the time they included the constituencies of yvette cooper hilary benn ian austin and of course margaret hodge and labour mps who weren t very political and who knew their seats were safe did what you d expect them to do not very much then there was the coalition and the big disillusionment with the lib dems leaving a big bloc of increasingly cynical voters in search of a home then came the rise of ukip and the catastrophically disappointing 2015 election result with labour s vote only rising 1 to 30 4 as compared with 2010 and labour mps who weren t very political and who knew their seats were safe did what you d expect them to do and the cushion of votes that those safe labour seats rested on quietly ebbed away and then there was jeremy corbyn and a lot of those mps were galvanised into action unfortunately the main effect of the action they took was to make their votes drain away even faster to the benefit of the far right and or boris johnson but it would all be worth it when labour was back in safe hands hands as safe as comfortably non left wing and as fundamentally non political as their own proper labour hands get a proper labour leader and we d leave the nightmare of the 2019 result 32 1 of a 67 turnout sixty seats lost far behind we d soon be polling in the 40 s again hard to remember now but labour actually was polling in the 40 s when the 2024 election was called the new leader did seem to do the trick at least when people got a chance to compare him to the alternative viz liz truss it didn t last though the new safe pair of hands was triumphantly successful at the election raising the tantalising possibility that everyone had been right after all but success was built on an alarmingly low vote labour s landslide was won on 33 7 of a 60 turnout i e fewer people than voted labour in 2019 this may have shown how terrifically seat winningly efficient labour s election strategy had been but it definitely showed that the level of public support for the party was lower than anyone thought this realisation became particularly pressing when support for the party went on declining and on and on as i write labour s 14 day polling average hasn t been above 30 since october 2024 in fact the last time the average was above 20 was october 2025 then came the 2026 local elections while reform uk have been the big winners there have also been wins in different parts of the country for the greens and various groups of more or less left independents with some councils showing much bigger gains for the left than the right what has been consistent is that labour has lost heavily in wakefield labour went from 48 seats to 1 and reform uk from 2 to 58 newcastle council went for both reform uk and the greens in quite a big way they gained 24 and 22 seats res...
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