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description= 10 posts published by Donald during May 2012;
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ter job of capturing swings in the business cycle despite this confusion two clocks are better than one they remind us of the fundamental uncertainty in economic measurement that uncertainty is often overlooked in the rush to analyze the latest economic data but it is real there are limits to what we know about the state of the economy in addition a weighted average of two readings may well provide a better reading than either one alone if one clock says 11 40 and another says 11 50 for example you d probably do well to guess that it s 11 45 unless of course you have reason to believe that one clock is better than the other the same may well be true for gdp and gdi the truth is likely in the middle this is less true with the jobs data because of the larger sample i weight the payroll measure much more heavily than the household measure at least for monthly changes p s for more on gdp vs gdi see dean baker and binyamin appelbaum author donald posted on may 31 2012 may 31 2012 categories data macroeconomics tags data gdp jobs macroeconomics measurement 1 comment on are two economic clocks better than one deficit hawk attacked by regular one via xkcd who would prefer to vote for a deficit sugar glider author donald posted on may 30 2012 categories budget tags budget humor the world s most traveled bird b95 aka moonbird has again touched down in new jersey after refueling he will head north to the canadian arctic for at least his 20th breeding season remarkable for a four ounce red knot whose normal lifespan is just four or five years and whose annual migration begins and ends way down in tierra del fuego b95 has logged at least 320 000 miles over the years probably more that s enough to go to the moon and halfway back hence his nickname he s even got a biography coming out this summer author donald posted on may 28 2012 may 29 2012 categories nature tags animals birds nature is the united states the best place for women women in the united states have the best quality of life of any developed nation according to the better life index recently released by the organization for economic cooperation and development the index combines eleven different measures of wellbeing including health education income and life satisfaction australia gets top honors for overall wellbeing but u s women top the rankings women in red men in black you ll probably have to click to read this chart any such index rests on many assumptions and value judgements of course so kudos to the oecd for providing a completely interactive version of the index if you don t like the way they combine the eleven factors you can roll your own index and see what happens among other things that allows you to drill down on each of the individual factors the oecd considers the life satisfaction element reveals that the united states is an outlier in another way the disparity between women s life satisfaction and men s korea has the largest gap with women reporting much higher satisfaction than men the united states has the second largest gap with women noticeably more satisfied than men but do note that by this metric alone the united states is not the best place for women several countries are higher if you like data interactive graphics and international comparisons you ll probably enjoy putting the oecd s better life index through its paces author donald posted on may 23 2012 may 23 2012 categories data international tags data oecd quality of life 1 comment on is the united states the best place for women is the reliability of public opinion surveys declining public opinion surveys provide a wealth of information about beliefs in america and around the world for example they document how much public approval for same sex marriage has been increasing how facebook has infiltrated many of our daily lives and how humanitarian aid affects how citizens of other nations view america but pollsters face a significant challenge as the pew research center for the people the press notes in a new study survey response rates continue to plummet fifteen years ago more than one in three of households responded to surveys today that rate is less than one in ten that increases the cost of reliable surveys to get a reasonable sample you need to try to contact more households even more important declining participation raises the question of whether the minority of respondents are representative of the population as a whole the pew research center study took a close look at that question the general decline in response rates is evident across nearly all types of surveys in the united states and abroad at the same time greater effort and expense are required to achieve even the diminished response rates of today these challenges have led many to question whether surveys are still providing accurate and unbiased information although response rates have decreased in landline surveys the inclusion of cell phones necessitated by the rapid rise of households with cell phones but no landline has further contributed to the overall decline in response rates for telephone surveys a new study by the pew research center for the people the press finds that despite declining response rates telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political social and economic measures this comports with the consistent record of accuracy achieved by major polls when it comes to estimating election outcomes among other things this is not to say that declining response rates are without consequence one significant area of potential non response bias identified in the study is that survey participants tend to be significantly more engaged in civic activity than those who do not participate confirming what previous research has shown people who volunteer are more likely to agree to take part in surveys than those who do not do these things this has serious implications for a survey s ability to accurately gauge behaviors related to volunteerism and civic activity for example telephone surveys may overestimate such behaviors as church attendance contacting elected officials or attending campaign events however the study finds that the tendency to volunteer is not strongly related to political preferences including partisanship ideology and views on a variety of issues republicans and conservatives are somewhat more likely than democrats and liberals to say they volunteer but this difference is not large enough to cause them to be substantially over represented in telephone surveys in short opinion surveys likely overstate civic activity but otherwise appear to track other observable political social and economic variables author donald posted on may 20 2012 categories data politics tags public opinion 1 comment on is the reliability of public opinion surveys declining fixing medicare s double counting problem last week i argued that budgeting for medicare s hospital insurance program is flawed today i offer two ways to fix it and reject a third medicare part a is one of several federal programs that control spending through a belt and suspenders combination of regular program rules the belt and an overall limit the suspenders but it s the only one that allows legislated savings to offset the costs of policy changes in other programs and extend the time before the overall limit constrains operations congress can t increase social security payroll taxes to pay for increased health care spending or reduce flood insurance subsidies to pay for tax cuts in both cases the resources stay within the affected programs and when it cuts spending on medicare parts b and d to pay for other spending no one claims those cuts will also postpone the day when trust fund exhaustion will disrupt their operations such double counting is possible only in medicare part a and it s a real problem creating needless confusion and reinforcing the sense that washington plays fast and loose with budget numbers happily congress knows how to fix this problem all it needs to do is apply to medicare a the practices used by one of the other programs that have belt and suspenders budgeting but avoid potential double counting one approach would be the rules used by the national flood insurance program as i discussed in more detail last week those rules require that any legislated savings remain in the program lawmakers can t reduce nfip subsidies to pay for new spending in other programs instead any savings are automatically earmarked to pay future nfip claims that would go unpaid because of the program s borrowing limit for an example see here this approach brings the overall limit explicitly into the budget but it makes for weird budgeting for example the budget baseline would show medicare a breaking even over the long run since the trust fund limit would take precedence over its fundamental deficits a better approach would adopt the rules used by social security those rules show social security running deficits far into the future in the budget baseline but they still take the trust fund seriously when examining new legislation any proposed cuts to the program s spending or increases in its revenues are off budget the congressional budget office reports them but congress can t use them to pay for other spending a recent senate bill provides a telling example the bill would expand the type of income subject to payroll taxes in order to pay for a one year extension of low interest rates on student loans those low rates would cost 6 billion but the senate proposal would raise 9 billion the bill had to overshoot that much because 3 billion comes from higher social security taxes and is thus off limits meanwhile the 6 billion in usable revenues comes from medicare part a which is considered on budget despite having a trust fund just like social security s that difference highlights the inconsistency in current budgeting if policymakers believe the part a trust fund is as sacrosanct as social security s they should provide the same budgetary protection part a savings should be off budget where they couldn t be used to pay for health reform student loans tax cuts or anything else outside the hospital insurance program if congress doesn t believe the trust fund deserves that protection it should adopt a third approach make the part a fund as operationally toothless as the one for medicare b and d those programs spend much more than they receive so their trust fund has unlimited ability to draw on general revenues if the same were true for medicare part a program changes could be used to pay for health reform as they were in 2010 or anything else just like any other mandatory program but we wouldn t have any confusion over whether those changes also extend the program s ability to operate the social security and medicare b and d approaches both make more sense than the mishmash that applies to medicare a today i think the medicare b and d approach is the better of the two not least because it would put all the parts of medicare on equal footing but one could certainly argue for the social security approach instead that s the discussion we should have now so that we can avoid needless double counting debates in the future p s several readers noted an important qualification to my social security discussion in my earlier post many experts believe past social security surpluses have been used to finance deficits in the rest of the budget and as a result social security resources have been paying for higher spending or lower revenues elsewhere in government i agree my comments in these posts apply only to explicit budgeting decisions like those in 2010 s health reform or today s student loan legislation in that context social security savings cannot be legislatively used to pay for other programs but they still might have indirect effects for example by reducing future unified budget deficits social security savings might weaken future congressional efforts to reduce deficits outside social security author donald posted on may 18 2012 may 17 2012 categories budget politics taxes tags budget budget process health politics taxes 1 comment on fixing medicare s double counting problem energy security the infographic the congressional budget office is out with another fine infographic this time on energy security the entire infographic is too big to post here but here s how andrew stocking and maureen costantino portray america s energy sources and uses one of the most notable features is the absence of any link from natural gas to transportation some natural gas is used in transportation of course but not enough to make the cut for this image given the ever growing divergence between oil and natural gas prices i wonder whether that will still be true a decade from now or will someone finally crack the natural gas to transportation fuel market in a big way author donald posted on may 11 2012 may 10 2012 categories data energy tags energy infographic natural gas oil 14 comments on energy security the infographic the fight over medicare double counting the recent double counting dispute isn t just about politics it also reveals a flaw in budgeting for medicare part a budget experts are waging a spirited battle over the medicare changes that helped pay for 2010 s health reform in april chuck blahous one of two public trustees of the program released a study arguing that the affordable care act aca would increase the deficit by at least 340 billion by 2021 a sharp contrast from the 210 billion in deficit reduction estimated by the congressional budget office cbo chuck bases his estimates on several factors but the item that has garnered the most attention is his charge that the aca s spending cuts and revenue increases in medicare part a are being double counted once to help pay for the aca s coverage expansion and a second time to improve the finances of the part a trust fund whose predicted exhaustion was delayed by several years chuck notes that those resources can be used only once they can either offset some costs of health reform or strengthen medicare but not both he believes those resources will ultimately finance additional medicare spending and thus can t offset any health reform costs for that reason he concludes that the aca would increase deficits rather than reduce them that argument inspired a host of commentary from leading budget experts ranging from denunciation to affirmation see for example jeffrey brown howard gleckman peter orszag robert reischauer as quoted by jonathan chait and paul van de water and a follow up by chuck and jim capretta why does this dispute exist it can t just be politics if it were we d have double counting disputes about every program but we don t we thus need an explanation for why this debate has erupted around medicare part a which provides hospital insurance but not around other programs par...
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