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e of awe with the bipolar cold war peace and was penned in the mid to late 1980s coming to completion just as cold war ended collapsing the seemingly millennial era of bipolarity like all such millennial dreams of everlasting order and with the swiftness of that collapse unmasking neorealism and most other cold war ir theories with notable exceptions like regime theory as brittle ideological dogmas masquerading as theories visions of order was going to be my dissertation a rebuttal of ken waltz s neorealism written under waltz s apoplectic supervision he hated it but at the same time loved it but mostly hated it his other students were unwilling to stand up to him and he loved a good debate as scott sagan came to appreciate with their post cold war debate on nuclear proliferation but when the cold war ended imploding the now obsolete field of soviet and east european studies and unmasking a whole generation of ir theorists as delusional navel gazers and waltzian butt kissers i proposed a new subfield in circumpolar studies to replace the now obsolete field of soviet and east european studies itself a fiction of russian imperialist fantasy but was laughed at by the pompous defenders of obsolete subfields rather than kick a dead horse i hopped on my 250cc honda rebel motorbike and road up the alaska highway to whitehorse and from their up the klondike highway to dawson and from there up the dempster highway to inuvik on the mackenzie river delta near the beaufort sea coast where over the next decade i penned another three volume treatise on the foundations of international relations based upon my observations and experiences in the western arctic and which is discussed in the companion to this retrospective theoretical memoir my arctic journey two decades later as the dust and debris of 9 11 was settling i pulled out my handwritten draft of my completed three volume visions of order on spiral bound notebooks and hired a wonderful typist on craigslist to digitize the manuscript for me for the internet era with the idea of adding new volumes to bring what i was now calling states of mind up to date as both tribute to and defiant mockery of the nonsensical and overly ideological constructivist school that has colonized the hive mind of academia after neorealism became obsolete with the 1989 fall of the berlin wall to people power as my updated expanded treatise approached completion i decided it was time to publish it waltz was still alive and still beating the dead horse of neorealism even arguing in the new york times that an iranian bomb would be good for world peace though too late to become a dissertation under his supervision he did enthusiastically agree to serve as an external reader but unfortunately passed away before the public defense owing to an overly eager junior faculty member insisting on yet another revision to bring the work current with the literature since i wrote the first draft just before the end of the cold war resulting in a year delay that we simply did not have as waltz s precarious health deteriorated with waltz no longer with us i refocused my attention on state of awe in tribute to waltz and wrote the expanded state of doom which further evolved into a strategic biography of bernard brodie a contemporary of waltz s who did for deterrence and strategic theory what waltz did for ir theory wedded it to the existential nuclear challenge of the post hiroshima world states of mind further evolved into what ultimately became a seven volume treatise and i ended up dividing the work in two to ensure the entire work could be published praeger security international agreed to publish the original visions of order with the addition of the post 9 11 state of siege while continuum books agreed to publish state of doom state of chaos and state of recovery thus in 2011 my four volume twenty five century chronicle of realism across the ages the realist tradition in international relations the foundations of western order came to press the first part of my seven volume states of mind project in it i present a sweeping and provocative if i do say so myself reinterpretation of realist theory challenging the systems centric neorealist tradition of structural realism as articulated by waltz one of the two most stubborn mentors i ve ever had the other being gene sharp another realist thinker of waltz s generation who was as unyielding on strategic nonviolence as waltz was on systemic structure i frame the evolution of realist thought through the eyes of two and a half millennia of individual realist thinkers and their respective quests to tame the chaos of their times from the era of city states and classical empires to global nuclear superpowers yielding an evolving but strikingly consistent philosophical and theoretical tradition i conclude that the foundations of world order are built upon these evolving states of mind that correspond to distinct historical eras and their respective technologies strategies and paradigms of warfare i organized this framework into four distinct states of mind each examined in its own volume capturing how political leaders philosophers and strategists responded to and yearned to transcend the chaos of their times volume 1 state of hope order in the age of classical war the era classical antiquity tracing back to thucydides and ancient greece the concept this state of mind emerges from a baseline of supreme geopolitical chaos it is a state of hope because it represents humanity s earliest philosophical efforts to conceptualize predict and ultimately tame international anarchy rather than accepting perpetual vulnerability classical realism sought the intellectual foundations necessary to construct a predictable sustainable balance of power out of raw conflict volume 2 state of fear order in the age of limited war the era the early modern period through the enlightenment and the rise of the westphalian states system the concept driven by a collective psychological dread of endless religious and civil bloodbaths such as the thirty years war this state of mind prioritized survival and stability above all else this collective fear directly catalyzed the birth of the modern sovereign nation state by monopolizing violence and establishing strict borders states constrained the scope of conflict transitioning the world into an era of structured limited warfare governed by clear diplomatic rules volume 3 state of awe order in the age of total war the era the 20th century through the cold war both world wars and the nuclear age the concept the rise of absolute industrialized warfare and the advent of the atomic bomb shifted humanity into a state of psychological awe a paralyzing realization of our capacity for total self destruction realist strategy during this period evolved to manage unprecedented systemic danger it gave rise to the philosophy of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability where order was paradoxically maintained through the terrifying equilibrium of mutually assured destruction mad volume 4 state of siege order in the age of insurgency the era the post cold war and post 9 11 contemporary world the concept this modern state of mind reflects the fragmentation of the traditional nation state s monopoly on security as globalized networks tribal factions and asymmetric actors rose up against western modernization states found themselves in a perpetual state of siege from within and below this era shifts the realist focus away from massive state on state clashes toward navigating non state insurgencies counter terrorism and localized border friction share this email a link to a friend opens in new window email share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky share on x opens in new window x share on reddit opens in new window reddit share on linkedin opens in new window linkedin share on tumblr opens in new window tumblr more share on mastodon opens in new window mastodon share on telegram opens in new window telegram share on pinterest opens in new window pinterest share on nextdoor opens in new window nextdoor share on whatsapp opens in new window whatsapp share on threads opens in new window threads print opens in new window print like loading leave a comment the return of the state of doom drone strikes desperation and putin s nuclear temptation 07 01 2026 07 01 2026 barry scott zellen phd liberty bernard brodie deterrence drones nato nuclear weapons politics realism russia ukraine war how ukraine s successfully waged war of asymmetric attrition could trigger russia s nuclear escalation and collapse the western order the skies over moscow once an untouchable symbol of russia s impenetrable imperial security have become the ukraine war s latest contested territory as ukrainian drones routinely slip past russian air defenses to strike at the heart of vladimir putin s capital the psychological economic and strategic landscape of the war in ukraine is undergoing a tectonic shift it is a stunning display of asymmetrical ingenuity and a testament to ukraine s unbroken resolve four years into a brutal but for those of us who study the grim calculus of international relations realist theory and nuclear strategy this tactical triumph casts a profound existential shadow we are edging precariously close to the terrifying reality that bernard brodie the founding father of modern nuclear strategy recognized at the dawn of the atomic age we are re entering a state of doom fifteen years ago in my 2011 book state of doom bernard brodie the bomb and the birth of the bipolar world i explored how the advent of the absolute weapon fundamentally altered the nature of war and statecraft brodie famously observed in 1946 that until the atomic bomb the chief purpose of a military establishment was to win wars from now on he wrote its chief purpose must be to avert them for 80 years this logic of deterrence has held firm nuclear weapons became the ultimate insurance policy against regime collapse and total state defeat creating a stable if terrifying equilibrium among superpowers but what happens when that insurance policy is held by an authoritarian leader who launched a war of choice only to find himself entangled in a humiliating multi year quagmire and suffering more than one million casualties and counting as we navigate 2026 the conflict has evolved into a grinding war of attrition that has systematically bled russian conventional forces now with drones detonating in moscow the illusion of russian invulnerability has been entirely shattered the war is no longer a distant special military operation broadcast safely on state television it is rattling the windows of the kremlin from a classical realist perspective a state s primary imperative is survival however in my research on the tribal foundations of world politics i have often noted that beneath the veneer of the modern westphalian state older primal loyalties dictate behavior rooted in an unyielding tribalism putin s russia has increasingly shed the trappings of a modern institutional state reverting to an insular tribal autocracy run by the its security elite the siloviki for this ruling clan the survival of the russian state and the survival of their regime are inextricably linked the drone strikes on moscow are not measured strictly in military terms they are profound political humiliations they signal to the russian elite and the public that putin cannot protect his own stronghold in the brutal logic of power politics humiliation breeds desperation and when the tribe s inner most sanctum is breached the leadership s risk calculus can radically change this is precisely where the architecture of nuclear deterrence begins to buckle deterrence relies on rationality on the shared understanding that the costs of crossing the nuclear threshold outweigh any conceivable benefit but rationality is subjective bound by the specific pressures and fears of the decision maker if putin believes that a conventional defeat in ukraine or the steady erosion of his domestic authority brought about by persistent strikes on the russian homeland will lead to his downfall the unthinkable suddenly becomes thinkable using the bomb of which putin has so many becomes a viable strategic option when their continued non use could cause both military defeat and regime collapse the immediate fear has never been that putin will launch a strategic first strike against washington or london triggering the near certainty and totality of mutual assured destruction mad the far more chilling and realistic peril is the use of a non strategic or tactical nuclear weapon within the ukrainian theater a low yield detonation perhaps over a military concentration an infrastructure hub or even as a demonstration over the black sea would serve a dual purpose for a desperate autocrat first it would aim to reverse the fortunes of a failing conventional campaign dramatically persuading kyiv to compromise via the same unimaginable explosive shock that did the same for the unyielding emperor of japan eighty years earlier second it would test the ultimate resolve of the west putin may gamble that while nato is willing to supply advanced conventional technology to maintain ukrainian territorial integrity it is not willing to risk western capitals for kyiv putin might calculate that a limited nuclear strike would paralyze the western alliance with the fear of further annihilation western analysts often comfort themselves with the assumption that a nuclear strike would turn russia into a global pariah completely alienating its remaining partners but they may be dangerously wrong in a fracturing global order a successful unpunished tactical nuclear strike could achieve the exact opposite of isolation it would send a seismic shockwave through the international system demonstrating that the west is ultimately a paper tiger when confronted by the east s absolute resolve rather than repelling beijing tehran or pyongyang such an unapologetic display of power might further unite the autocratic world around a newly dominant center of gravity it could reinvigorate russia s diplomatic leadership among revisionist states positioning moscow as the ultimate vanguard against western hegemony this is the hidden trapdoor of the current crisis the very real temptation that nuclear brinkmanship could pay off rewriting the rules of global governance in favor of autocracy hence the temptation for putin hence the danger for us we are currently witnessing a volatile collision between the paradigms of modern conflict asymmetric unconventional tactics are now colliding with the rigid devastating power structures of traditional states ukraine has brilliantly exposed the hollow core of russian conventional might utilizing decentralized high tech drone warfare to outmaneuver a lumbering superpower yet in doing so it has inadvertently increased the utility of russia s unconven...