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penhagen the former and latter brands held promotions on 39 and 21 months respectively of the 48 months of observation most promotions lasted several months and sometimes overlapped for a given brand they were often held in the summer but did occur in the other seasons as table 2 illustrates games and giveaways yielded nominal prizes and gifts eg bottle of hot sauce in contrast to the substantial prizes awarded in contests and sweepstakes eg timber wolf s 100 000 grand prize the latter promotions highlighted themes or notable events such as skoal s 80 days of saturdays celebrating the company s 80 th birthday grizzly sponsored creative promotions centered on the theme of masculinity exemplified by writing the man rules challenge contest which required contestants to write their man rules on each week s theme like other promotions this contest ran for multiple weeks with weekly grand prizes and instant win prizes restrictions on online entry into the various promotions varied from one entry per day to one entry per promotion table 2 examples of online promotions in the form of games contests sweepstakes and giveaways type of promotion sponsor name of promotion how to play win prize examples game camel snus family flavor shuffle game shuffle the camel snus tins 15 mastercard gift card contest grizzly writin the man rules challenge write your own man rule on a weekly theme 50 words trip to vegas poker championship contest camel snus ad maker contest create advertisement using graphics colors in website tool 250 and publication of ad sweepstake timber wolf welcome to owensboro ky claim plot of land on virtual map of owensboro ky hunt for 100 000 grand prize sweepstake copenhagen american craftsmanship sweepstakes choose one of 13 drawings to participate in poker table grill flashlight etc giveaway grizzly hot sauce giveaway select type of hot sauce and create your own custom label hot sauce open in a new tab a descriptive analysis of the marketing reach of the promotions revealed that the promotion dates coincided with the number of unique visitors to the snuff websites this was evident for the 3 featured websites in figure 2 particularly redman com which experienced a substantial decline in internet traffic following termination of its 2 promotions in 2011 and 2012 the dates for skoal com and mygrizzly com correspond to peak website traffic during the online promotions figure 2 open in a new tab temporal relationship between number of unique website visitors and promotion dates 1 2011 12 2014 promotions website traffic and sales for most products time series methods revealed seasonality in monthly website traffic as well as other effects appendices a through g after removal of these patterns website traffic increased substantially during months of active sweepstakes contests or other promotions table 3 this finding held for 5 of the 7 snuff brands that sponsored the online promotions for instance promotions for skoal corresponded to an additional 88 695 hits above the level expected from the non promotion periods representing an increase of more than 2 standard deviations by contrast camel snus and general snus exhibited no association between the promotions and website traffic table 3 time series results over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales β se β se β se skoal 88 695 11 176 77 914 70 678 79 43 a grizzly 46 746 11 397 27 680 71 466 1 01 79 copenhagen 52 863 23 368 116 230 103 680 03 46 red man 17 511 1 284 46 301 15 971 73 61 longhorn n a b n a b 4 03 2 55 red seal n a b n a b 3 01 52 c timber wolf 14 536 2 952 44 072 20 308 55 50 camel snus 29 683 19 813 53 569 34 898 13 16 general snus 2185 1 451 928 5 811 36 26 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed note a p 10 b not applicable because sweepstakes contests were not held during the observation period c 2 positive web traffic outliers at end of series when sales are quite low drive negative result sales of several snuff brands also demonstrated a strong trend eg skoal thereby requiring us to render the trend mean stationary for the majority of snuff products 5 of 7 the association between promotions and sales was not statistically significant as demonstrated by the second column in table 3 the exceptions were red man and timber wolf the regression coefficients for red man β 46 301 and timber wolf β 44 072 indicate a substantial increase in snuff sales corresponding to a promotion period as shown in the last column of table 3 website traffic in general was not associated with snuff sales discussion these findings indicate that the brand websites are successful in attracting tobacco consumers during sweepstakes and other promotions the success in reaching consumers was evident for the popular brands like skoal and grizzly as well as the less popular brands like red man the observation that coupons were a central feature of the websites provided rationale for testing associations among snuff sales website traffic and the promotions the premise was that consumers would visit the brand websites during sweepstakes contests download the coupons and redeem the coupons during promotion periods the null association between promotions and snuff sales for 5 of 7 brands raises the question of whether direct marketing is primarily intended to enhance brand loyalty in the long term or boost sales in the short term the latter is supported by the notion that sales promotions aim to stimulate behavior as opposed to advertising which has a long term effect from conditioning a consumer s perception of a product 23 redmond reported that during the rapid expansion of sales promotions for cigarettes 1983 1992 expenditures for such promotions were highly correlated with the initiation of daily smoking among ninth graders 23 the absence of a short term impact of promotions on sales is not what we had expected tough it is plausible that the substantial increase in website traffic during promotions could increase customer satisfaction and brand loyalty over time 11 without having measured these outcomes it would be unfounded to reach such a conclusion on the other hand it would be premature to conclude that the promotions were a failure based on the null associations observed between promotions and sales unfortunately any long term effect of promotions would be undetected in the current study it can be argued that momentary increases in sales may not occur because marketing tactics ie couponing originate from the tobacco industry s efforts to offset the decline in sales resulting from increases in cigarette taxes prices 24 empirical evidence of the effect of direct marketing comes from a pre and post assessment of the 1998 master settlement agreement msa 25 loomis et al reported that following the msa the proportion of promoted cigarette sales increased substantially and correlated with the imposition of state excise taxes the overall decrease in cigarette consumption resulting from the increase in cigarette prices may have been partially offset by the rise in marketing expenditures that led up to the 1998 msa 26 our assessment of the reach and impact of direct marketing was limited by a number of factors first the impact of promotions on sales via the redemption of website coupons could be assessed only indirectly through enumeration of website visits during the promotion periods the alternative of measuring coupon use directly through a proprietary marketing panel would have yielded few affirmative responses due to the low prevalence of snuff use the second limitation was the lack of a metric for assessing brand loyalty and customer satisfaction without such a metric we could only speculate that direct marketing through brand websites increases customer retention the third limitation was the use of 2 online resources online sweepstakes com and trinketsandtrash org for identifying sweepstakes and other promotions that predated our weekly tracking of brand websites however the chance of not identifying a major sweepstake was relatively small given the breadth of the 2 online resources the fourth limitation was the inability to characterize the website visitors such as demographics eg adolescent vs adult history and extent of snuff use and smoking status the fifth limitation was the discrepancy in the reporting of sales data in 4 week periods versus the monthly reporting of website traffic this discrepancy required us to exclude arbitrarily one 4 week period ie late december to mid to late january which created a slight lag between website traffic and sales data for the earlier part of a given year the sixth limitation was the potential for a type ii error arising from analysis of fewer than 50 data points 22 increasing the sample size for greater statistical power was not feasible because sales and internet traffic data were unattainable for the years prior to 2010 and exorbitantly expensive for the 12 months in 2010 ie 12 data points lastly the arima models did not include variables that could have affected snuff sales such as state excise taxes for cigarettes and snuff unlike us dave and saffer were able to obtain and model state level measures in estimating an elasticity of 06 for exposure to smokeless tobacco advertising 6 despite the limitations we demonstrated that brand websites are a significant source of direct marketing for snuff manufacturers promotions such as sweepstakes and contests draw a large number of website visitors who are exposed to coupons and other forms of direct marketing that could strengthen consumers brand loyalty thus it is important for tobacco control advocates to track the brand websites for identifying emerging practices in marketing that are being directed to snuff consumers implications for tobacco regulation restricting tobacco marketing is one of 8 elements in the fda s public health framework for regulating tobacco 15 ashley et al note the importance of researching marketing via the emerging media channels such as tobacco brand websites 15 our study demonstrates that consumers are drawn in large numbers to snuff websites during contests and sweepstakes the 2009 tobacco control act does not restrict the marketing content of adult only tobacco websites in the same manner as other media channels yet some data have challenged the notion that adult only tobacco websites are impervious to adolescents who attempt to enter them 16 suggesting that age verification methods are fallible soneji et al report that 6 of 15 to 17 year olds had visited a cigarette brand website possibly through the creation of a bogus identity or the login information of an adult family member 16 either way the finding indicates that adolescents are being exposed to online tobacco marketing if the snuff websites are proven to be a threat to public health notably adolescents 15 then the websites could be regulated by the fda as authorized by the 2009 tobacco control act acknowledgments this work was supported by the national institute of drug abuse and the family smoking prevention and tobacco control act r03da027950 we thank the reviewers for their helpful suggestions appendix a skoal full time series results including arima parameters over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand skoal promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales differencing first differences a constant 35 267 12 740 11 778 600 557 890 promotions or website traffic 88 695 11 176 77 914 70 678 79 43 b ma parameters ma 1 84 11 ar parameters ar 1 68 11 ar 1 35 16 ar 12 35 13 ar 1 85 09 ar 12 36 06 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed note a first differences refers to the use of a difference operator at lag 1 month which indicates that we differenced the non stationary series ie value at t 1 subtracted from value t to render it mean stationary b p 10 appendix b grizzly full time series results including arima parameters over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand grizzly promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales differencing constant 55 462 22 335 270 383 000 688 580 273 784 000 775 750 promotions or website traffic 46 746 11 397 27 680 71 466 1 01 79 ma parameters ar parameters ar 1 72 10 ar 1 56 13 ar 12 64 05 ma 1 57 12 ma 12 66 05 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed appendix c copenhagen full time series results including arima parameters over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand copenhagen promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales differencing constant 71 409 14 310 26 359 500 679 530 26 334 900 716 600 promotions or website traffic 52 863 23 368 116 230 103 680 03 46 ma parameters ar parameters ar 1 71 11 ar 12 57 07 ar 1 72 11 ar 12 58 08 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed appendix d red man full time series results including arima parameters over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand red man promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales differencing first differences a first differences a constant 5633 497 9169 3 389 promotions or website traffic 17 511 1 284 46 301 15 971 73 61 ma parameters ar parameters ar 6 38 11 ar 3 39 14 ar 3 32 14 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed note a first differences refers to the use of a difference operator at lag 1 month which indicates that we differenced the non stationary series ie value at t 1 subtracted from value t to render it mean stationary appendix e timber wolf full time series results including arima parameters over the 48 time points examining website traffic and snuff sales as a function of sweepstakes contests and other promotions brand timber wolf promotions predicting website traffic hits promotions predicting snuff can sales website traffic predicting snuff can sales differencing first differences a first differences a constant 18 179 5 924 29 460 11 956 promotions or website traffic 14 536 2 952 44 072 20 308 55 50 ma parameters ar parameters ar 1 95 04 open in a new tab p 05 p 01 p 001 all tests 2 tailed note a first differences refers to the use of a difference operator at lag 1 month which indicates that we differenced the non stationary series ie value at t 1 subtracted from value t to render it mean s...