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ery soon donald trump will return to his role as a colorful quirky private citizen posted by x curmudgeon at 12 50 pm 2 comments friday may 19 2017 how the russia scandal will go down for trump now that an independent prosecutor has been appointed to investigate the trump campaign s ties to russia we can hope to get to the bottom of this in due course it won t happen overnight most likely the probe will take at least a year republicans should welcome the probe if an independent prosecutor clears the trump campaign they re all good if mueller instead finds wrongdoing they can get rid of trump and have pence as president which would be much better for them all around trump would also welcome the appointment of an independent prosecutor if he and his campaign did nothing wrong indeed one of his big problems so far has been the refusal to say he would welcome an investigation that would clear his campaign of wrongdoing in any event where there s smoke there s fire and in the case of trump s campaign there is plenty of smoke i believe the investigation will show that trump s campaign did indeed coordinate with russia and that the coordination began early on during the republican primaries if true that it started during the primaries republicans will be much more willing to dump trump the key player is michael flynn most likely flynn offered to use his contacts with russians to help leverage the trump campaign paul manafort was also undoubtedly involved and it wouldn t be surprising if some of the other clowns in trump s camp roger stone rudy guiliani played a role but flynn is the main man we already know that he had many contacts with the russians the question becomes who those russians were and what they offered to do and also what trump knew trump of course will deny that he knew anything in any scheme like this it is important to protect the boss plausible deniability that was the key in watergate it wasn t bugging dnc hq per se that was the problem but rather whether pres nixon knew about it trump has already hedged his bets stating yesterday that his campaign or at least he himself did not coordinate with the russians note however that trump made flynn his national security adviser despite numerous warnings not to it seems a promise was made or maybe flynn knew too much so in the end it will come down to flynn eventually he will be given immunity in exchange for his testimony about what trump knew i expect that he will then testify that yes of course the boss knew but he didn t want to be informed of any of the details then maybe we can get a serious president posted by x curmudgeon at 4 12 pm 1 comment friday october 21 2016 the early election signs point to hillary many people tend to overlook that these days voting begins several weeks before election day according to data compiled by political scientist michael mcdonald at electproject org nearly 40 of votes in the 2012 presidential election were cast before election day that total could be eclipsed this year although some states have curtailed early voting for political reasons as of this morning according to mcdonald s data more than 4 million people have already voted in this election with early in person voting starting in more and more states that figure will go up rapidly over the next few days states vary widely in the data they report from the early ballots no state of course reports on who the early voters cast their ballots for but some do provide useful demographic information some interesting tidbits from the data so far iowa is a state where donald trump has consistently polled favorably he holds a 3 7 lead over hillary in the polling average for that state but iowans have been voting now for quite a few days and the tilt is heavily democratic so far 235 000 votes have been cast in iowa there were 1 5 million total in the state in 2012 of those 49 are from registered democrats and 32 from republicans in contrast in 2012 42 of absentee ballots were from dems and 32 from republicans of course that doesn t mean hillary is winning or trump is losing the data could and likely will change as additional ballots come in also it may be that traditional blue collar white democrats in iowa are voting for trump so we won t get too excited about the data so far but if i was trump i d be worried if he loses iowa he is likely to go down to a landslide defeat nationally north carolina and georgia provide a demographic breakdown of their early voting data what s interesting here is the gender divide in georgia 433 000 votes have been cast 3 9 million total votes in 2012 of those 56 are from women and 42 from men nationally women make up about 53 of all voters in nc 221 000 ballots have been cast of which 55 are from women and 43 men of course this could just be that women are voting early and men will catch up at some point and it doesn t tell you who they are voting for finally in virginia it is noteworthy that early balloting in democratically strong northern virginia is up 56 over 2012 virginia is probably a lost cause for trump anyway polling has consistently shown a race their that is not close at all posted by x curmudgeon at 10 30 am 1 comment trump lost the election the day he announced his candidacy the election is almost here and barring something very unexpected hillary clinton will be our next president that is pretty surprising given that at the outset of the nomination process a year and a half ago a generic republican easily beat hillary in a hypothetical match up but then donald trump threw his hat in the ring the very day that trump made his campaign announcement he both won the gop nomination and lost the general election as soon as trump made his now infamous statement about mexican rapists and criminals he vaulted to the top of the gop nomination heap unfortunately there is a sizable portion of the republican base that delights in overt immigrant bashing and racism and by saying it bluntly trump made himself the darling of these voters at the same time and i said it to a friend at the time while sitting in trump s golf club in sterling va he lost the general election even to a candidate as unpopular as hillary bigotry is not a popular position in the us and thankfully the larger electorate will generally shy away from a candidate who expresses himself or herself in a bigoted way it s too bad because our country could use a vigorous debate on policy issues rather than personality we benefit from such debate as it often helps us to get to a moderate middle ground position that is usually better for the large majority of citizens this is the what our founders envisaged with their system of checks and balances as one example ohio gov john kasich a fairly conservative republican recently had the courage and intellectual honesty to defend free trade which neither trump nor clinton will do although clinton probably favors free trade free trade provides our country with numerous benefits including lower cost not quality goods and vigorous markets for our exports the idea that we are somehow going to go back to being an industrial manufacturing economy is pretty ludicrous moreover we wouldn t want to manufacturing jobs are increasingly becoming automated we are better off that our economy has already moved on in any event let s hope the republican party can right its ship i fear otherwise trump has basically written a playbook for future campaigns if you want to distinguish yourself in a large field of republicans be a bigot and try to mask it by saying you re just not being politically correct perhaps a new centrist conservative party will emerge one that embraces fiscal and economic conservatism libertarianism and ethnic religious and sexual diversity posted by x curmudgeon at 8 57 am no comments monday december 07 2015 the university of virginia football rip off the university of virginia announced a few days ago that it had hired a new football coach who it will reportedly pay 3 25 annually what a huge waste of money on top of this uva students are required to pay a sports fee of 657 annually one of the highest in the nation among large public universities uva students should go on strike against paying this exorbitant and useless fee to support a bloated athletic department budget here s an undeniable fact about college football 100 of games result in someone lossing in the aggregate 50 of games played will result in a loss what that means for schools like uva is that unless they can out recruit the likes of alabama clemson florida state ohio state etc they are going to be on the losing end and in the long run there is no way that uva can out recruit the major fbs football powers about the best uva can hope for is to occasionally have a decent season in the acc and go to a minor bowl heck anyone can go to a minor bowl these days but that very fact has completely devalued the entire bowl experience anyway there is a much better way for uva and similarly situated schools to go instead of participating in an ever escalating arms race that it cannot possibly win it should drop out uva ought to join other more academically oriented and or smaller schools such as duke unc wake forest temple villanova rutgers and form an ivy league type of college football conference one that promotes the true idea of student athlete the ivy league school play a ten game season with no playoffs no bowl games limited scholarships etc the season is still competitive within the league but not over the top the two teams that play for the national championship this season will likely have played 15 games apiece a ridiculous sacrifice for unpaid college kids to be asked to make for the glory of their rich alumnae uva could then slash its football budget eliminate the hated student fee and pursue its primary mission educating students it could also set an example that would encourage other schools to stop the madness and bring rationality some back to college football posted by x curmudgeon at 2 50 pm no comments new iowa poll provides further evidence that trump has nowhere to go in our last post we stated the theory that donald trump has corraled the wallace vote the lower income less educated white voters who are overtly bigoted and willing to vote that way in general elections we now have some additional evidence in support of that theory a recent poll from monmouth of iowa voters in the new monmouth poll http www monmouth edu assets 0 32212254770 32212254991 32212254992 32212254994 32212254995 30064771087 de240398 df23 47b6 8470 91977d38b749 pdf there is a tremendous amount of movement from the last poll about a month ago in particular carson has almost collapsed with the majority of his support moving to ted cruz likewise rubio has picked up some of the carson support as well as improving his position among more moderate gop voters at the expense of bush kasich fiorina and christie but trump has gone nowhere his support declined by a statistically insignificant 2 furthermore the poll shows that trump s strongest support relative to others is among republicans who have never previously participated in a caucus in iowa but say they will this year that cohort is notoriously fickle when it comes to actually turning out as opposed to drinking a beer and cursing as they watch fox news this poll reinforces our belief that trump has wrapped up support of overtly bigoted voters but in the process turned off everyone else leaving him with no room for further growth voters in iowa are changing their minds but not for trump the result is that with less than two months to go to the actual voting caucusing a new dynamic is emerging in which trump faces the danger of finishing second and maybe even third in iowa finishing third would be particularly damaging it would destroy his claim as the gop front runner further it would hasten the consolidation of republican voters in future contests such that he could also come in third in new hampshire trump will likely do better in the so called sec primary of mostly southeastern states those states have higher percentages of wallace type voters especially in the republican party thus he could garner as much as 40 in some of those states especially in the deep south but his support even in that cohort may erode if cruz and rubio emerge as the two front runners by then trump is a stubborn fellow who hates to lose we would not rule out having him take his campaign the independent route in the general election despite his pledge not to posted by x curmudgeon at 2 08 pm 1 comment thursday december 03 2015 explaining the trump phenomenon with george wallace many political pundits have tried to explain the trump phenomenon i e his staying power atop the gop polls despite statements that would sink many another candidate the explanation is really not that difficult donald trump has cornered the george wallace vote in most years that would not seem like much but in this unusual election year the wallace vote has taken on a disproportionate impact in the gop primaries few will recall that in 1968 george wallace ran for president on an avowedly racist segregationist platform it was also a populist platform economically his appeal was largely limited to lower class whites of more limited education but he nonetheless received nearly 14 of the vote nationwide and carried five southern states back in the 1960 s and 1970 s many wallace type voters identified themselves as democrats for historical reasons they tended to either stay out of national elections or vote republican particularly if someone like a goldwater was running many more were independents these days the parties have re aligned and wallace type of voters are more firmly in the gop camp although some are still independents to both the benefit and detriment of the republican party notwithstanding that realignment wallace voters have had a fairly limited impact on republican presidential nominating contests in a typical election year with maybe three serious gop candidates pursuing the presidential nomination the wallace type vote would not be so evident a leading centrist candidate such as a romney or mccain would have roughly 60 of the vote in polls in such a contest and a couple other more right wing candidates might carve up the wallace vote maybe one getting 16 and the other getting 10 in such a contest the wallace voters are out there but they in no way dominate or even significantly affect the course of the race this year is unusual there are more than a dozen candidates with no heir apparent trump went right out of the gate for the wallace type voters proclaiming in his first speech that mexico was sending rapists and murderers across the border he has continued to make a series of bigoted and racist comments since then and he has stayed at a pretty steady 20 25 in national polls of republicans in head to head polls against democrats hillary clinton and bernie sanders however trump typic...