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t that tournament 2a count the number of offensive points the team played in each game and how many they scored divide o point scores by o points to get offensive efficiency for each game 2b divide this total by the expectation ratio to get expected offensive efficiency 3ab repeat the above to get expected defensive efficiency for the game i debated whether there should be some expected o d split in efficiency but in the end i decided that the character of each game is unique due to wind effects and the like and as such it s better to assume the o d splits are as they should be 4a for any given player compute their offensive efficiency based on the ratio of o points to o scores when they were on the field 4b subtract the players offensive efficiency from the expected offensive efficiency in that game to obtain marginal offensive efficiency 4c multiply marginal offensive efficiency by offensive points played to get that player s offensive plus minus for that game 5abc repeat the same for defensive points 6 if desired add the player s offensive and defensive plus minus together to get overall plus minus this can then be divided by points played and added to expected efficiency to get the player s adjusted efficiency example when ripe played bad larry at sectionals we lost 13 12 for an efficiency of 48 our expected efficency in that game was 45 giving us an expectation ratio of about 1 05 we scored 9 of 12 o points for an o efficiency of 75 and an expected o efficiency of 71 6 i e we scored 3 4 more often than you would expect we scored 3 of 13 d points for a d efficiency of 23 1 and an expected d efficiency of 22 we scored 5 of 6 o points i played 11 7 more often than expected 83 3 71 6 11 7 when multiplied by 6 o points played this gives me an adjusted o plus minus of 7 points 117 6 7 we scored 2 of 8 d points i played 3 more than expected for an adjusted d plus minus of 24 points my overall adjusted plus minus for the game was therefore 94 to give some context to that the overall range for the game went from 2 47 scored all four of her o points and 2 3 d points to 88 scored 0 4 d points did not play on o for the entire weekend total plus minus ranged from 8 67 to 2 41 overall plus minus was skewed toward positive because we exceeded our expected score in most games also the negative scores tend to be lower because people who are playing well play more posted by tarr 10 16 2007 02 56 00 pm 3 comments wednesday july 25 2007 time saving form letter for august 25th as a service to the community i am providing this letter with a few simple text replacements this letter should be appropriate for blog entries letters to the upa and most of all posts to rec sport disc subject let team play i just heard that the upa is not going to let team play in location sectionals this is ridiculous from what i heard from a friend of somebody on the team team had their roster 99 legit on the upa page at the deadline but they just needed one more day to get those last few names in they were only one day late it was probably the upa s fault anyway because the site was pretty slow on the 24th there was no way team could have predicted that team is one of the top teams in the division division without their presence in the fall series the division championship will carry an asterisk because we ll never know what team would have done i know the upa loves to screw people and say rules are rules but they should make an exception here team didn t do anything wrong and deserves to play if you plan ahead now you could be all ready to send it out on the 25th if you don t get your post out until the 26th because you had to do all the search and replace stuff on the 25th you have nobody to blame except yourself i wish every team the best of luck in lodging complaints this fall posted by tarr 7 25 2007 07 05 00 am 7 comments monday july 23 2007 the importance of saying stupid things not counting league i ve been in a leadership position on five different teams including my current club mixed team as i ve gotten older i ve gradually become a little more aware of the way other people take my comments and it s definitely affected the way i talk when i m addressing either the team or the individual a couple things i ve figured out there s a limit to how many detailed ideas a team can absorb in a huddle i d generally say that that number is one or on average slightly less than one i think that oddly enough this is why saying what i would consider stupid or pointless comments are so important comments like they re tired if we keep running hard we re going to run away with this game are on the face of it pretty pointless i mean when i say that i don t think there s a single person on my team who 1 was thinking gosh we can win this game without working very hard and 2 was convinced of the error of their ways by my comment but that s not the point the point is twofold one these sorts of comments are easily understood and get people agreeing with what you are saying which helps set up any more meaty comments you have in store second there s really nothing better to say there because too many ideas is just as bad as none at all in order to help people get better you really have to treat them like individuals what i mean is that you have to understand how they deal with failure and how they take criticism there are some people i am one of them who are perfectly willing to discuss the thing s they screwed up that point the moment they leave the field but there are other people who both need time away from the play and need for constructive criticism to be couched in positive language this is more common when i m dealing with women but it is not just a male female thing there are definitely women who want to discuss things right away and there are men who i really have to walk on eggshells with ok i m done icing my left heel and my right ankle so that s enough for now for clarity when i don t couch things in positive language i still avoid expressing anger frustration at them my non positive approach is a straightforward you did x this is why y is better particularly on a mixed team i try to make sure people know it s unacceptable to lapse into the pointless habit of screaming at someone when they screw up posted by tarr 7 23 2007 06 43 00 am 3 comments monday july 02 2007 behind the wall i had an interesting conversation at a recent tournament with a guy who played on a high profile college team around a decade back this was one of the top teams in the nation and it was also one of the teams that had a reputation for aggressive play and bending the rules this was before the days of widespread well trained observers and the gray area for rules abuse was much bigger he was in a very different place as a player now so he offered some interesting inside perspectives to me looking back on those days i ve always been curious about what it was like to be on those teams because they had to know on some level that they were blatantly breaking some rules and were winning through intimidation in addition to talent and yet while these teams had always freely admitted to enjoying a physical style of play and occasionally fouling as a result i ve never heard admissions of intentionally breaking the rules despite this these players have often seemed exceptionally mellow and friendly off the field this contrast nice guys acting in a way that earns them hatred and then being somewhat dishonest about it seems jarring to me a few tidbits i got from this conversation he basically confirmed hat there was a largely unspoken rule on this team that you back your teammate up no matter what the call or situation and you do it vocally that was just the culture of the team that s not too different from a lot of teams now i suppose although he couldn t be sure he was fairly convinced that many of the worst fouls calls infractions that the team leaders made were made intentionally that s no shocker but what i found interesting was that he thought the motivation was not to get that one possession but rather to control the pace style mood of the game most interesting to me was an anecdote he told about a bad call he made he had a layout catch that he got his hand under but the disc was down he called it up and stood by his call after a huge argument broke out nobody on his team said a word in dissent at the time over a week later however after a team meeting one older player on the team pulled him aside and said if the disc is down call it down so you get total support at the time of the call but on some level at least some players on the team wanted to win without making any obviously bad calls along the way so the culture of sotg did seep in to these teams if only to a tiny degree posted by tarr 7 02 2007 02 19 00 pm 0 comments monday june 18 2007 cleats sweet sweet yes i got two pair yes i paid the buy it now price rather than bid and cross my fingers when a cleat that s been discontinued for two years shows up in my size i don t mess around for me the perfect cleat is the 3 4 height speed td maybe they will start making them again and or i will find another cleat as light durable comfotable supportive and effective but i m not taking any chances i have four pairs now which should last me into the next decade i just wanted to share my good fortune idris has blogged about cleats more than once before and there are recurring rsd threads on the subject too posted by tarr 6 18 2007 04 41 00 pm 0 comments friday june 15 2007 nba divisions no ultimate content a lot of talk from various sports columnists about how to fix the nba when the lottery happened a lot of people wrote about how to improve it this was my favorite idea although it s too kooky to ever get implemented now the in vogue idea is to re seed the playoffs 1 16 that way the west east imbalance which amazingly looks like it is going to get worse before it gets better is not an issue i actually like this idea however if you re going to do away with the conferences for seeding why not trash them altogether let s look at it current nba 6 divisions of 5 4 games against each team in your division 3 4 against other teams in your conference randomly determined 2 games against the out of conference teams division winners are guaranteed to be a top 4 seed in their half of the playoffs my proposal 5 divisions of 6 6 games against each team in your division 2 against every other team except an extra game against the 4 teams that finished the same place last year in their division so if you win your division you play 3 games against the other four division winners next year 5 division winners are guaranteed a top 8 seed both are 82 games 6 game sets against your division rivals brings rivalries back to the nba realigning to 5 divisions allows for more geographically reasonable divisions pacific seattle portland sacramento golden state la la southwest utah denver phoenix dallas houston san antonio midwest minnesota milwaukee chicago indiana detroit cleveland atlantic toronto boston new york new jersey philly washington southeast memphis charlotte atlanta orlando miami new orleans seriously look at the current map and tell me that setup doesn t make more sense minnesota plays portland and utah twice as often as they play chicago and milwaukee dumb the only issue there is that the new sw div is insanely stacked the top six seeds in the western conference playoffs but with 1 16 seeding this can still work out posted by tarr 6 15 2007 07 18 00 am 0 comments thursday june 14 2007 tournament stratification sounds like a good title i m doing requests it seems i mean really when he wrote that he may as well have put it as tarr should blog about tournament stratification i guess he could have been thinking of george or maybe dusty but this is right in my wheelhouse i have 3 4 other topics i ve been meaning to blog but they can wait we re talking about tournaments that have elite and lower devisions sometimes these divisions cross into one another sometimes they do not let s lead right out with the main pros and cons of formats with power pools like these pro teams get more meaningful games which is the point of playing con fundamentally not even handed relies more on initial seeding that pro is crucial and is enough to justify power pools a lot of the time the bottom line on power pools is that the elite club teams are not going to pay airfare to travel to a tournament unless they know they are getting a full slate of games against other elite teams so having at least a power pool or two or four on the top is basically a requirement of any top tournament the first con i e lack of even handedness is not a major concern you night have a harder path to win the tournament or only be able to place 9th but nobody s season is ending as a result the point of preseason tournaments is to play and teams should be judged by individual game results as oppose to the number attached to their finish the second con however is more significant than you might realize allow me a meandering self indulgent anecdote to demonstrate my point my new job has a sand volleyball court outside and there is a formal lunchtime volleyball league rather than attempt to make balanced teams and a full schedule the league is split into 8 person divisions and each league game is a different 4v4 matchup within that division there are 56 players and consequently 7 divisions after describing myself as tall and reasonably athletic but with very little v ball experience i got placed in div 5 this week one of my teammates couldn t make the game so a player from another division subbed in he was decent i thought he was about average among the players on the court i figured he was a good 6 or a bad 4 but when i looked him up on the league spreadsheet later i was quite surprised to discover that he was div 2 what was the point of that story that applies to ultimate most people drastically overrate their ability to predict the relative strength of teams players in the case of the v ball league the idea to have divisions is a very good one div 1 has a guy who can two hand dunk with ease and a former varsity volleyball player at stanford but with 7 divisions the variation within a division is far greater than the variation between divisions the league would be well served by 3 or 4 divisions the rest is just noise the same is absolutely true in ultimate the only arguable exception is the few elite men s teams which are pretty stable as i said you need to have a power pool at the top anyway to attract the top teams but even there the worst elite teams usually have very little if any edge over the best open teams in conclusion some stratification in preseason tournaments is a good thing but there should be some room for crossover whenever possible and care should be taken to not overstratify it s easy to talk yourself into believing that there are several big obvious breaks in team strength but the result...