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Text of the page (random words):
nally difficult to fish out information from the good substack comments so this is disappointingly incomplete but i am out of time maybe i ll edit improve it later amac78 on 11 24 20 the pseudonymous vote integrity posted anomalies in vote counts and their effects on election 2020 a quantitative analysis of decisive vote updates in michigan wisconsin and georgia on and after election night the author designed and employed a method to highlight unusual and possibly fraudulent additions to the vote counts in battleground states to do this he or she advantage of the time series data that edison research created for each of the 50 states for national election pool subscribers and that the new york times posted online two excellent tools substack commenter steve created a script that pulls the edison data and generates time series graphs like the author s fig 1 michigan and fig 2 wisconsin for the state of your choice at this page substack commenter mario delgado coded a self service application that uses the same source to generate anomaly profiles like the author s fig 3 michigan and fig 5 wisconsin for the state of your choice here the author uses statistical procedures that identify anomalous batches of votes that were added to the state election boards running counts beginning when the polls closed on the evening of tuesday nov 3 and continuing for the next few days the core assumption is that the voters of each state are evenly distributed in other words each subset precinct city county has more or less the same percentage of biden and trump voters in addition biden and trump voters would be more or less equally inclined to vote in person or by mail and so forth the author isn t stupid s he knows that these assumptions aren t completely true this is taken as a starting point to find possible needles phony votes in a haystack of genuine returns readers who are unfamiliar with the field should be aware that there have been multiple informed criticisms of this approach by commenters who are very knowledgable in statistics and forensics thus my advice is to be very wary of accepting the author s methods and conclusions without considering the merits of those critiques i raise this as a warning that subject is beyond the scope of this comment and unfortunately sorting through thousands of substack comments to find these solid criticisms would be a major chore in the section quantifying the extremity the author presents a table with ten anomalies suspicious batches of votes that were added to the presidential race s tallies late on election day or in the early morning hours of the following day s he highlights in yellow these four entries from battleground states anomaly 1 michigan batch on 11 4 20 at 6 31am est 141 258 biden 5 968 trump anomaly 2 wisconsin batch on 11 4 20 at 3 42am cst 143 379 biden 25 163 trump anomaly 3 georgia batch on 11 4 20 at 1 34am est 136 155 biden 29 115 trump anomaly 4 michigan batch on 11 4 20 at 3 50am est 54 497 biden 4 718 trump as of this writing 12 1 20 1430 gmt the comments to anomalies in vote counts have provided strong evidence that anomaly 1 is explained by the city of detroit s report of most of its absentee ballots to the michigan secretary of state anomaly 2 is explained by milwaukee s report of most if its absentee ballots to the wisconsin elections commission i don t know if other commenters have explained anomalies 3 or 4 i ve written up this summary because the substack commenting system as adopted by vote integrity fails to support an informed discussion of the points raised in the original article as far as i can tell submitted comments are impossible to search and nearly impossible to link effectively so the most civil and informative remarks get buried and people new to the post never see them discussion doesn t build on what has been linked discovered and discussed instead amnesia rules the thread hard won insights on technical issues are overlooked forgotten or ignored as a result everything keeps getting re litigated from the beginning tempers fray anomaly 1 michigan batch on 11 4 20 at 6 31am est the city of detroit published the pdf november 2020 election summary report signed copy on its november 3 2020 general election official results page page 2 breaks down election results 100 of 637 precincts reporting 74 733 election day and 166 203 absentee votes for biden 6 736 election day and 6 153 absentee votes for trump 1 126 election day and 1 081 absentee votes for other candidates also 373 election day and 109 absentee unresolved write ins anomaly 1 is 141 258 biden 5 968 trump 2 546 other thus 94 3 4 0 1 7 detroit city absentee is 166 203 biden 6 153 trump 1 081 other thus 95 8 3 5 0 6 commenter mike linked sources that showed that detroit counted its own absentee ballots and submitted them directly to the state they were not consolidated with absentee ballots from the other jurisdictions in wayne county anomaly 2 wisconsin batch on 11 4 20 at 3 42am cst page with downloadable wisconsin vote data by county milwaukee city pop 590 000 is one of 19 municipalities in milwaukee county 946 000 this county government page says the city recorded 169 519 absentee ballots i don t see a total for the county total it looks like the municipalities report to the county which then reports to the wisconsin elections commission is that right but without a breakdown of biden and trump counts for absentee ballots it s going to be impossible to a detailed comparison of the milwaukee submission with anomaly 2 milwaukee journal sentinel article of 11 4 20 biden overtook trump in the early morning hours when milwaukee reported its roughly 170 000 absentee votes which were overwhelmingly democratic commenter eric 377 wrote on 11 29 20 i live in wisconsin my understanding is that update listed by vote integrity i e anomaly 2 is milwaukee county data milwaukee county is the state s most populous and easily the highest number of votes cast yet the elections staff is proportionally not smaller than other counties prior to the election the milwaukee media reported that the elections team was very well prepared but the size of the team their resources including numbers of voting machines and the vote totals tell us that their actual performance was the worst in the state and by a lot compared with other counties with similar per vote resources it seems to me that the most acceptable rationale for milwaukee being hours behind where they were expected to be would be exactly that the team was a lot less efficient than teams in the rest of the state the second largest county in the state dane also the second greatest source of biden votes reported nearly 100 of their votes almost 6 hours earlier than milwaukee conclusion as mentioned at the onset i m posting this to serve as a point of reference for commenters at vote integrity s substack article new readers should be aware that anomalies 1 and 2 are likely explained by ordinary vote counting mechanisms that means they aren t telltales of say a hacker injecting tens of thousands of phantom votes into the michigan or wisconsin vote counting systems i may or may not edit the post further depending on how much more time i can afford to sink into this hobby posted by amac at 6 42 am 1 comments sunday august 14 2011 lightsum and darksum are calculated not measured in last year s post the tiljander data series data and graphs i explained that the four tiljander data series were actually three darksum is calculated as thickness minus lightsum i ve since discovered that there are actually two tiljander data series rather than four thickness and xrd are measured values lightsum and darksum are values that tiljander et al calculated by multiplying thickness and xrd here are the formulas varve thicknesses are measured in microns thousandths of a millimeter um lightsum thickness xrd 0 003937 darksum thickness 1 xrd 0 003937 solving these two equations for thickness yields thickness lightsum darksum the calculated values of lightsum are within 0 01 of the values archived at ncdc for darksum the calculated values are consistently 0 5 to 0 8 too low presumably this is a rounding error update aug 15 2011 commenter haroldw figured out the exact formulas by which lightsum and darksum are calculated it strongly suggests that tiljander et al made a minor arithmetic error in their formulae such that thickness lightsum 255 254 darksum exact means that the calculated values of ls and ds agree with the archived values to within 0 001 i ve updated the excel file at bitbucket to reflect haroldw s insight discovered as used above is tongue in cheek obviously the authors of tiljander03 have known from the outset that this was their procedure however this finding is new to me presumably it is also news to the authors of mann08 mann09 kaufman09 and to other people who take an interest in paleoclimate reconstructions does it matter from a statistical point of view yes it does read more posted by amac at 11 11 am 13 comments sunday july 10 2011 pattern recognition scientists pride themselves in the ability to tease informative patterns out of masses of data and with good reason that skill or aptitude is one of the traits that leads to insight and thus publications and professional success i don t believe that gazing at spaghetti graph reconstructions is the best way to evaluate whether or not the tiljander data series were used correctly in mann08 for links to referred to papers and posts see here that s a question that s better answered by reading her paper tiljander03 getting a feel of what her data looks like graphs here and thinking about the physical meaning of the varve characteristics that go into xrd lightsum darksum and thickness by weaving these threads together we can figure out the solution to this puzzle can the tiljander data series be meaningfully calibrated to the instrumental temperature record 1850 1995 the answer is no there might be a way to indirectly achieve such a calibration which was the approach that authors of kaufman09 took with xrd after belatedly coming to grips with this problem but there s no feasible direct approach of the type used in mann08 and mann09 this has proven to be a very contentious point but there s no good reason it should be seen as such truly contentious questions have strong arguments on each side of the issue the defenders of mann08 don t even argue for yes but rather for a stance akin to i don t know and it doesn t matter that s silly knowing that the tiljander data series were massively contaminated by non climate signals in the 19th and 20th centuries we can look for patterns in the reconstructions presented in mann08 and mann09 let s consider a few cartoons read more posted by amac at 11 06 am 9 comments thursday june 23 2011 voldemort s question updated june 25 26 2011 see end of post are the tiljander proxies calibratable to the instrumental temperature record 1850 1995 reader alex harvey copied his submission to realclimate org as a comment to the just prior post at this blog the tiljander data series appear again this time in a sea level study some time later it was allowed into realclimate s 2000 years of sea level at position 22 the second of harvey s two points concerned the use of tiljander the study has also been criticised on various blogs for using one of the multiproxy reconstructions that employed the four actually three uncalibratable edit tiljander lakebed sediment data series e g http amac1 blogspot com 2011 06 tiljander data series appear again this html edit realclimate s moderators snipped the comment as shown prof mann offered this inline commentary response no just more of the usual deception from dishonest mud slingers more on that in short order mike read more posted by amac at 10 41 pm 39 comments tuesday june 21 2011 the tiljander data series appear again this time in a sea level study at realclimate org stefan rahmstorf has written 2000 years of sea level about a study published on june 20 2011 in pnas andrew kemp and co authors bp horton jp donnelly me mann m vermeer and s rahmstorf reconstruct sea levels from 500 ad to the present and relate these levels to the temperatures of the past using a multi proxy reconstruction that was first presented in mann et al pnas 2008 the kemp11 pdf can be downloaded at the rc post it turns out that the chosen temperature recon is heavily dependent on the four three uncalibratable tiljander data series this reliance grows stronger as one goes back in time and shorter younger records drop out i tried to leave a remark on this subject at realclimate org apparently that site is set to automatically fail any comment tagged with my user name email or ip address here is the local copy of what i submitted 21 jun 3 50 pm edt i was surprised at the provenance of the paleotemperature reconstruction that was used in kemp et al s fig 2a and fig 4a according to fig 2a s legend it is composite eiv global land plus ocean global temperature reconstruction smoothed with a 30 year loess low pass filter the reference is mann et al 2008 in that paper s s i the unsmoothed version is in panel f of fig s6 as the black line labelled composite with uncertainties this is one of the multiproxy reconstructions that employed the four actually three uncalibratable tiljander lakebed sediment data series according to gavin schmidt it s worth pointing out that validation for the no dendro no tilj is quite sensitive to the required significance for eiv nh land ocean it goes back to 1500 for 95 but 1300 for 94 and 1100 ad for 90 link further remarks on this issue as responses to other rc comments here see numbers 525 529 and 531 the incorrect inclusion of tiljander could well make this eiv reconstruction progressively worse as one goes from 1500 ad back to 500 ad this might explain the increasing divergence between the temperature recon and the sea level recon as one travels back from 1100 ad to the beginning of the recons at 500 ad this pattern is shown in kemp11 s s i figs s3 s4 and s5 did any of the peer reviewers comment on this issue or request that you use a no tiljander temperature reconstruction read more posted by amac at 1 40 pm 24 comments sunday august 22 2010 a comment on m w10 submitted to realclimate org i submitted a comment to the realclimate org post doing it yourselves 20 august 2010 as the author makes some interesting remarks on the intersection of mcshayne and wyner 2010 and the tiljander proxies my comment entered the moderation queue last night after position 41 and wasn t among the ten comments that have been released in three batches this morning perhaps it has been failed or perhaps it s being delayed if does make a belated appearance accompanied with inline commentary i ll note that in an update update 22 aug 2010 3 20 pm edt in the past hour my comment passed moderation and was slotted into position 42 the comment count is currently at 60 gavin schmidt s inline comm...