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antidotal antidotal a little something to fight the poison observations and opinions on politics and the media contributors eric tam rick robinson manu rangachari prescribed sources globe and mail new york times cbc news bbc world service washington post la times toronto star national post guardian ha aretz jerusalem post la presse le monde hindustan times second opinions the atlantic salon the economist slate harper s american prospect the new republic dissent national review weekly standard pundit magazine daily doses affiliated be all end all diversions facts arguments rotten tomatoes flags of the world given letter grades why they hate us urban legends reference page get your war on simpsons blackboard openings archives blogroll me wednesday february 18 2004 slow death overtime that is the highly probably outcome of the wisconsin results yes edwards had a good evening yesterday almost as good as it gets without well winning that still leaves kerry as having gone 15 for 17 while edwards has gone 1 for 17 for this reason the idea that wi will lead to some huge momentum shift like dean s collapse after iowa is fanciful dean after all was prohibitive frontrunner before any votes had been cast and when votes were cast dean washed out with a weak 3rd kerry s frontrunner status is based on actual votes and he still won wi if edwards had actually trounced him it might be another story but it isn t kerry also has a lead of about 400 delegates about 3 times edwards total even if they ran neck and neck from now on kerry would still be heavily favored to win moreover while edwards will certainly get a mo wave it is unlikely that they will run neck and neck on march 2 too many states are in play for the sort of personal campaigning that shows edwards at his best he apparently intends to cherry pick two or three states ga oh and mn effectively ceding the rest to kerry even if edwards won all three kerry would still get pretty close to the magic number needed to clinch the nomination my guess is that edwards will at most win one or two on super tuesday one or two more on southern tuesday a week later then fade out as kerry approaches the finish line if edwards washes out on super tuesday it s over of course the other question to ask is should edwards win whether he s likely to or not would he be a tougher opponent against bush in the fall he is certainly a good retail campaigner much better than the somewhat wooden john kerry edwards two americas theme is the best presentation of populism in modern times perhaps ever if you make less than about 200 000 a year you clearly are in edwards america not george bush s kerry has no such vivid or concise encapsulation of his basic argument moreover while kerry trounced edwards among dems in wi edwards made it close with votes from independents and crossover republicans this leads to an argument pitched by will saletan in slate that edwards would pull better with swing voters in the fall if this were peacetime edwards would be our strongest candidate against bush it is not peacetime the tiger in the grass in this election is national security that tiger has been sleeping like a lazy housecat during the dem primaries but it will be stalking in the fall we all know that bush s strategy is to run as a war president his message will be something like strong decisive leadership in a time of crisis against a backdrop of all 9 11 all the time this message may or may not work with swing voters this fall but we need to assume that it might historically national security was the gop s strong suit during the cold war years the end of the cold war took it away and made clinton possible but osama brought it back john edwards has nothing going for him on national security he has no background to speak of in it and it is nowhere in his two americas theme where the rest of the world exists only as a place where lost jobs go moreover his whole johnny sunshine persona works against him i don t doubt that edwards can stick a knife into bush even as he smiles but how does he get through bush s national security armor as a poster at daily kos put it can you really picture edwards in the situation room it is easy to picture john kerry in the situation room he faced war first hand and came back to protest it his focus in the senate has been largely on foreign policy one reason he has few bills to his name in this campaign he has shown his readiness to take it directly to bush on national security even kerry s appearance and manner work well for him on this issue wooden perhaps but so is an oak tree kerry projects solidity and gravitas qualities associated with steadiness in a crisis and just the qualities that edwards for all his charm does not project if we can force bush out of his fortress of terra to fight the campaign on bread and butter domestic issues we will win kerry can do that it is far more doubtful that edwards can which is why we should support kerry as our nominee rick robinson posted by rick at 6 29 pm permalink comments sunday february 15 2004 eric has invited me to co blog here following on so to speak from my tour of duty over at wesleyclarkweblog some of you who are blog junkies may recognize me from my too numerous posts over at daily kos the dem primary race is now effectively over so the focus moves to the general election campaign which looks to be one long knife fight from now till november i expect to have a good deal to say about it here but for now i ll settle for a quick hello and a hearty thanks to eric rick robinson posted by rick at 3 54 pm permalink comments wednesday july 31 2002 smokin new taxes besides the obvious political benefits of being able to claim to raise revenue and appear strong against big tabacco is anyone thinking through the new cigarette taxes in nyc the wall street journal hits it on the head today editorial front section massive excise taxes barely ever raise significant revenue and lower consumption the two goals are simply contradictory what the nex tax does is punish everyone too poor to be able to drive to new jersey or westchester reducing teen smoking is a noble goal but it s not worth this injustice to lower income folks especially when it s designed and implemented by their friends the democrats posted by anonymous at 12 35 pm permalink comments home