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eeping the board think about that the next time you hear an obvious explanation for why obama won his data was biggi er or why romney failed too much fundraising kudos to nate silver simon jackman drew linzer and sam wang for predicting all 51 states correctly on election eve as felix salmon said the dominant narrative the day after the presidential election is the triumph of the quants mashable s chris taylor remarked here is the absolute undoubted winner of this election nate silver and his running mate big data readwrite declared this is about the triumph of machines and software over gut instinct the age of voodoo is over the new news quants bring their own data and represent a refreshing trend in media toward accountability at least if not total objectivity away from rhetoric and anecdote we need more people like them whether you agree or not their kind our kind will proliferate congrats to david patrick chris yahoo news and the entire signal team for going out on a limb taking significant heat for it and correctly predicting 50 out of 51 states and an obama victory nearly nine months prior to the election footnotes 1 here was the day before guest list for the february 15 yahoo press dinner though one or two didn t make it â new york times john markoff â new york times david corcoran â fast company eb boyd â forbes tomio geron â mit tech review tom simonite â new scientist jim giles â scobleizer robert scoble â wired cade metz â bloomberg businessweek doug macmillan â reuters alexei oreskovic â san francisco chronicle james temple 2 the extended signal cast included kim farrell kim capps tanaka sebastien lahaie miro dudik patrick hummel alex jaimes ingemar weber ana maria popescu peter mika rob barrett thomas kelly chris suellentrop hillary frey ej lao steve enders grant wong paula mcmahon shirish anand laura davis mridul muralidharan navneet nair arun kumar shrikant naidu and sudar muthu 3 although i continue to be amazed at how greener the grass is at microsoft compared to yahoo my one significant regret is not being able to see the signal project through to its natural conclusion although the signal blog was by no means the sole product of the project it was certainly the hub in the end i wroteâ 22 articles and david rothschild at least three times that many computer science economics finance fun gambling games politics prediction markets probability publication research raise your wiseq to the 57th power october 6 2012 david pennock 7 comments one of the few aspects of my job i enjoy more than designing a new market is actually building it turning some wild concept that sprung from the minds of a bunch of scientists into a working artifact is a huge rush and i can only smile as people from around the world commence tinkering with the thing often in ways i never expected the â œbuild itâ phase of a research project besides being a ton of fun inevitably sheds important light back on the original design in a virtuous cycle in that vein i am thrilled to announce the beta launch of predictwiseq a fully operational example of our latest combinatorial prediction market design a tractable combinatorial market maker using constraint generation published in the 2012 acm conference on electronic commerce you read the paper 1 â now play the game 2 help us close the loop predictwiseq is our greedy attempt to scarf up as much information as is humanly possible and use it wisely to forecast nearly every possible detail about the upcoming us presidential election for example we can project how likely it is that romney will win colorado but lose the election 6 2 or that the same party will win both ohio and pennsylvania 77 6 or that obama will paint a path of blue from canada to mexico 99 5 but donâ t just window shop go ahead and customize and buy a prediction or ten for yourself your actions help inform the odds of your own predictions and crucially thousands of other related predictions at the same time for example a bet on obama to win both ohio and florida can automatically raise his odds of winning ohio alone that s because our market maker knows and enforces the fact that obama winning oh and fl can never be more likely than him winning oh after every trade we find and fix thousands of these logical inconsistencies in other words our market maker identifies and cleans up arbitrage wherever it finds it but thereâ s a limit to how fastidious our market maker can be itâ s effectively impossible to rid the system of all arbitrage doing so is np hard or computationally intractable so we clean up a good bit of arbitrage but there should be plenty left so hereâ s a readerâ s challenge try to identify arbitrage on predictwiseq that we did not go ahead and profit from it and when youâ re ready please let me and others know about it in the comments iâ ll award kudos to the reader who finds the simplest arbitrage why not leave all â of the arbitrage for our traders to profit from themselves thatâ s what nearly every other market does from ireland based intrade to las vegas bookmakers to the chicago board options exchange the reason is weâ re operating a prediction market our goal is to elicit information even a completely uninformed trader can profit from arbitrage via a mechanical plug and chug process we should reserve the spoils for people who provide good information not those armed solely with fast or clever algorithms moreover we want every little crumb of information that we get in whatever form we get it to immediately impact as many of the thousands or millions of predictions that it relates to as possible we donâ t want to wait around for traders to perform this propagation on their own and besides itâ s a waste of their brain cells itâ s a job much better suited for a computer anyway intrade offers an impressive array of predictions about the election including who will win in all fifty states in a sense predictwiseq is intrade to the 57th power in a combinatorial market a prediction can be any boolean function of the state outcomes an ungodly degree of flexibility letâ s do some counting in the election there are actually 57 states 48 winner takes all states washington dc and two proportional states nebraska and maine that can split their electoral votes in 5 and 3 unique ways respectively ignoring independent candidates all 57 base states can end up colored democratic blue or republican red so thatâ s 2 to the power 57 or 144 quadrillion possible maps that newscasters might show us after the votes are tallied on november 6th a prediction like â œromney wins ohioâ is the set of all outcomes where the prediction is true in this case all 72 quadrillion maps where ohio is red the number of possible predictions is the number of sets of outcomes or 2 to the power 144 quadrillion thatâ s more than a googol though less than a googolplex maybe next year to get a sense of how big that is if todayâ s fastest supercomputer starting counting at the instant of the big bang it still wouldnâ t be anywhere close reaching a googol yet create your own league to compare your political wiseq among friends if you tell us how much each player is in for weâ ll tell you how to divvy things up at the end or join the friends of dave fod league if you finish ahead of me in my league iâ ll buy you a beer or beverage of your choice the next time i see you or i ll paypal you 5 if we donâ t cross paths predictwiseq is part of predictwise a fascinating startup of its own founded by my colleague david rothschild predictwise is the place to go for thousands of accurate real time predictions on politics sports finance and entertainment aggregated and curated from around the web the predictwiseq game is a joint effort among david miro sebastien clinton and myself the academic paper that predictwiseq is based on is one of my favorites owed in large part to my coauthors miro and sebastien two incredible sciengineers as is often the case the theory looks bulletproof on paper but iâ ve learned the hard way many times that you donâ t really know if a design is good until you try it or more accurately until you build it and let a crowd of other people try it so dear crowd please try it bang on it break it though please tell me how you did so we might fix it tell me what you like and what is horribly wrong mostly have fun playing a market that i believe represents the future of markets in the post cda era a k a the digital age __________ 1 or not 2 or not hacking oddhead blog spam oddhead blog hacked for the third time may 6 2012 david pennock 14 comments my blog has been hacked yet again for those keeping track that s infection number three this latest exploit is very similar to the previous one to humans arriving via browser e g me the site appears perfectly normal and healthy even upon clicking view source nothing untoward is revealed the title of my blog is as always oddhead blog however when google s or bing s crawlers arrive to index my corner of the web they see a different title altogether buy cheap cialis onlineâ and immediately roll their eyes actually even if you run curl http blog oddhead com you ll see the spam keywords the effect of the attack is a kind of reverse cloaking cloaking is the black hat seo practice of serving legitimate content to crawlers and spam content to people here the spam content is shown to the crawlers and the legitimate content to the people once the crawlers report thisâ appallingâ information back to their respective mother ships the search engines have no choice but to delist and demote my blog in their pagerankings right now if you search for or within oddhead blog on google you ll see how poorly the bots in mountain view think of me you can hardly find any deep links into my blog by searching google for example try searching for bem wom my invented term for better mousetrap word of mouth even try bem wom oddhead blog you ll find aggregators republishing my content but no links to the original source my blog anywhere in sight note to self the bing results for bem wom are awful once again i am at a loss to understand my attacker s motivation clearly it s not to sell cialis to my users as they remain blissfully ignorant of any changes the only benefit to anyone is to remove one relatively obscure blog from the search engine rankings and thus to move the attacker one slot up having a blog tangentially about gambling probably puts me into a shady neighborhood of the web yet reverse cloaking your competition even if it can be somewhat automated and strike more than one competitor seems like an awfully indirect way to improve one s standing in google it s also possible this is an act of pure vandalism so what should i do although i partly blame wordpress for writing insecure software i may end up paying wordpress protection money to make this problem go away i am seriously considering giving up on self hosting and moving my whole operation to worpress com s hosted service where presumably security is tighter or at least it s not my responsibility any more my web hosting service dreamhost may also be partly to blame yet i like the company and have been quite happy with them in many respects any advice dear reader wordpress com blogger try again and hope the fourth time is the charm should i be looking to ditch dreamhost as well computer science economics microsoft personal yahoo microsoft research new york city first days may 5 2012 david pennock 4 comments now that i ve said my goodbyes i m thrilled to announce that i ve joined microsoft research an organization with going on twenty one years of commitment to basic and applied research employing 850 ph d scientists around the globe including turing award winners fields medalists and many long time colleagues that i hugely respect if that were all i would be over the top happy right now but that s not all together with fourteen other founding members seven of whom i can name duncan watts john langford david rothschild sharad goel dan goldstein jake hofman and sid suri we are cutting the ribbon on a new outpost for microsoft research in new york city we will report to jennifer chayes the founder and director of microsoft research new england in cambridge ma it s been amazing to watch her up close pursue a goal relentlessly with boundless positive energy i get the feeling it s how she approaches everything she does a realization that played no small part in my decision the new england lab like us is an interdisciplinary research group that blends computer science social science and machine learning yet from different enough perspectives to make this an almost perfect marriage it s no exaggeration to say that helping to found and lead a new research group amid the bursting tech scene in new york city with the resources of microsoft behind us is as duncan says a once in a career opportunity the press coverage thursday was gratifying including nice pieces in pcmag source of the sweet logo above nytimes com allthingsd and dozens more here is the official press release for science perspectives see john langford s lance fortnow s dan goldstein s and jennifer chayes s blog posts one of the coolest moments came when new york mayor michael bloomberg tweeted about us note that despite the attrition yahoo labs lives on probably more applied but not solely so ron brachman the new head of yahoo labs is terrific and may be able to do something special there the barcelona group remains largely intact and just got 7 papers into sigir other groups remain intact as well the reception within microsoft research and product orgs has been swift and very warm the breadth and scope of the place can be daunting at first but invigorating the ability to impact products that touch hundreds of millions of people s lives is as always a rewarding draw of corporate research yet one of the deciding factors for many of us in joining microsoft is the freedom to interact with universities in research service teaching hosting visitors hiring interns and postdocs etc in addition weâ d like to play our part in the new york city tech scene including the startup venture capitalist and hack make communities plus the new cornell technion campus contributing to mayor bloomberg s vision of new york city as a tech hub an interesting side note that bodes well for my two daughters ages 7 and 4 is that my primary decision boiled down to working for one of two brilliant and accomplished women jennifer chayes at microsoft or corinna cortes at google who is absolutely terrific google is a incredible place a model of efficiency innovation and ambition with an impressive roster of people and the company is in a very strong position but this opportunity at microsoft simply proved to be too good to pass up i can t believe how perfectly everything fell into place i m beyond thrilled at the outcome and excited to begin this next chapter of my career posts navigation 1 2 17 next musings of a computer scientist on predictions odd...