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e again the bull is running ahead of schedule once again i m moving on with a forecast for next year how about 2015 by 2015 just kidding joe and i remain secular bulls and pick 2300 a 15 increase from yesterday s close posted by dr ed yardeni at 9 42 pm no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday november 25 2014 the world is awash in oil excerpt consumers should be thankful for the plunge in oil prices since the summer the price of a barrel of brent crude oil peaked this year at 115 15 on june 19 it is down 31 to 79 43 since then the futures price of a gallon of gasoline is down 34 over this same period this decline saves consumers about 150 billion at an annual rate at the pump just in time for the holiday shopping season there could be even more windfalls at the pump ahead for consumers most of the oil price decline occurred after saudi aramco started a price war on october 1 for all its exports reducing those bound for asia to the lowest level since 2008 bloomberg reported the move suggests that the biggest member of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is prepared to let prices fall rather than cede market share by paring output to clear a supply surplus saudi arabia has acted in the past to stop a plunge in prices it made the biggest contribution to opec s production cuts of almost 5 million barrels a day in 2008 and 2009 as demand contracted amid the financial crisis the kingdom would need to reduce output about 500 000 barrels a day to eliminate the supply glut now stemming from the highest u s output in three decades iran s semi official news agency mehr reported on sunday that ministers from iran will seek an output cut from saudi arabia at thursday s meeting of opec yesterday reuters reported oil prices could plunge to 60 a barrel if opec does not agree on a significant output cut when it meets in vienna this week market players say opec probably needs to slash production by at least 1 0mbd to stabilize prices that s not likely to happen let s review october s oil market intelligence omi data on global crude oil supply and demand 1 supply world crude oil production soared to a record 93 0mbd during october that s up 3 3mbd in just the past five months over this period non opec output is up 2 0mbd while opec output is up 1 3mbd furthermore over this five month period the combined oil production of the us and canada rose 0 9mbd to a record 12 7mbd well exceeding that of both saudi arabia 9 6mbd and russia 10 6mbd 2 demand world crude oil demand rose to a record 92 8mbd during october however the growth rate slowed to 0 8 y y the slowest since may 2012 that slowdown is attributable to the advanced economies of the 34 members of the oecd their oil demand growth rate has been slightly negative for the past six months today s morning briefing thanksgiving 1 counting our blessings 2 the ackerman bull market 3 from 666 to 2063 4 da vinci code 5 emu hasn t disintegrated so far 6 fully invested bears and the endgame 7 muddling along beats the alternatives 8 the importance of stock buybacks 9 no double dips or fiscal cliffs for the us 10 secular bull vs melt up 11 opec s holiday gift to consumers 12 global oil supply soars as demand growth weakens 13 focus on market weight rated s p 500 energy more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday november 24 2014 is a strong dollar bullish or bearish for us stocks excerpt of course a major concern among investors is that slower global economic growth outside the us and a stronger dollar will weigh on s p 500 earnings per share that s why i lowered my forecasts last week to 125 in 2015 and 135 in 2016 down from 130 and 140 previously on the other hand it is interesting to note that us stocks tend to outperform stocks in the rest of the world when the dollar is strong that s because this generally happens when the us economy is outperforming the overseas economy on a ytd basis the us continues to outpace the other major msci stock prices indexes in dollars us 11 4 all country 4 1 emerging markets 0 2 japan 3 9 uk 5 6 and emu 7 3 today s morning briefing london days 1 tour of london 2 taxi vs limo drivers 3 the knowledge 4 attack of the socialized students 5 worrying about both high p es and a melt up in the us 6 the new consensus on bonds 7 secular stagnation overseas and no global recession in sight 8 pmis flashing global slowdown 9 waiting for wage inflation and fed normalization 10 putin needs higher oil prices 11 is a strong dollar bearish or bullish for us stocks more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday november 19 2014 wage inflation remains abnormally low excerpt wage inflation remains abnormally low although the labor market has clearly tightened the short term unemployment rate fell to 3 9 during october the lowest reading since november 2007 back then wage inflation was 3 3 today it is only 2 0 fed chair janet yellen has said that she believes that wage inflation is too low she would prefer to see it rise to 3 4 before starting to normalize the federal funds rate i monitor wages in various key industries and am hard pressed to see any signs of mounting inflationary pressures during october here were the y y increases for the ones we monitor from highest to lowest leisure hospitality 3 6 information services 3 3 mining logging 2 9 construction 2 6 professional business services 2 4 retail trade 2 3 financial activities 2 0 manufacturing 1 9 utilities 1 7 transportation warehousing 1 2 education health services 1 1 and wholesale trade 1 1 today s morning briefing the new abnormal 1 tower of london 2 from london to zurich 3 is the normal business cycle dead 4 volcker was never in the put business 5 greenspan and bernanke puts 6 the consequences of minimizing pain 7 abnormalities in this cycle 8 waiting for godot and wage inflation 9 new forces keeping a lid on price inflation 10 secular stagnation over there depressing bond yields over here 11 producers misjudged chinese demand 12 profit margins still aren t reverting 13 tour of london more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday november 18 2014 russia s catastrophe excerpt last friday bloomberg reported that president vladimir putin said russia s economy battered by sanctions and a collapsing currency faces a potential catastrophic slump in oil prices nevertheless he claimed that russia s reserves at more than 400 billion would allow the country to weather such a turn of events russia is the world s largest energy exporter so putin s assurances that russia can absorb the oil shock are hard to believe russia s non gold international reserves have dropped from 457 billion at the start of this year to 383 during october the ruble has plunged 30 since the start of the year to stem the drop in reserves russia s central bank on november 10 allowed the ruble to float freely in the market i wouldn t rule out a debt default crisis if the price of oil continues to fall in that event russia might have to spend more of its reserves to stop the crisis in other words catastrophic outcomes are still possible for russia today s morning briefing oil bubble bursting 1 bullish or bearish for global economy and equities 2 drilling deeper 3 zero sum game 4 russia s catastrophe 5 no props from next opec meeting 6 the saudis game plan 7 wolf on wall street says it was all a big bubble 8 drilling money into the ground 9 transports on speed 10 subsidize frackers 11 cutting earnings estimates for next two years more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday november 17 2014 bubble in the oil patch excerpt when the price of a barrel of brent crude oil peaked at a record 145 40 on july 3 2008 there was lots of talk about peak oil industry experts were speculating about whether the price might continue to rise to 200 or even higher global oil demand was growing faster than global oil supply it was widely believed that global oil reserves were likely to dwindle because all the cheap stuff had been found the remaining reserves would require higher prices to develop now that the price has plunged from this year s high of 115 15 on june 19 to thursday s 76 13 the focus is on how low can it go what i called trough oil in late october in a matter of a few months the world suddenly recognized that the world is awash in oil that s largely because of the extraordinary surge in us oil field production which soared 3 6mbd over the past two years to a high of 9 4mbd during the week of september 12 easy money in the us sent lots of investors searching for better returns in the oil patch they fueled the oil boom in many ways it was a bubble that may be starting to burst over the past eight weeks through the first week of november us output has dropped by 0 4mbd to 9 0mbd as they say in the commodity pits the best cure for falling commodity prices is falling commodity prices today s morning briefing the great deflators 1 the new abnormal 2 nostalgia about normalizing monetary policy 3 monetary policy affects both demand and supply 4 awash in liquidity and oil 5 easy money fueled the oil bubble 6 secular stagnation specter haunting europe 7 china remains on soft landing course 8 specter of deflation in asia 9 durable goods prices are falling everywhere 10 how the great moderators became the great deflators 11 central bankers keeping zombies alive 12 governments are the biggest zombies of all 13 meet the selfies 14 whiplash more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday november 13 2014 small business owners confirm improving jobs market excerpt october s nfib survey of small business owners continued to show an improving trend in almost all categories the data can be volatile on a monthly basis so i track various monthly averages october s small business optimism index on a 12 month basis rose to 94 6 the best reading since april 2008 the percentage of respondents reporting poor sales on a six month basis fell to 12 8 last month down sharply from the cyclical peak of 33 2 during march 2010 by the way this series is highly correlated with the unemployment rate the survey corroborates lots of other positive labor market indicators on a 12 month basis the percentage of firms with one or more job openings rose to 23 4 the highest since february 2008 the percentage expecting to increase employment rose to 9 4 the best reading since may 2008 capital spending plans aren t as strong though more owners say it is a good time to expand today s morning briefing still decoupling 1 standing out 2 the benefit of slower global growth 3 us small business survey showing lots of cyclical highs 4 citigroup economic surprise index positive in us not so much in g9 5 jp morgan global composite index confirming global growth 6 oecd leading indicators especially weak in japan and germany 7 maersk sees shipping slowdown 8 lower fuel costs should benefit ems more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday november 12 2014 strong dollar is depressing commodity prices excerpt there are strong correlations between the inverse of the trade weighted dollar and the following industrial commodity prices the brent crude oil price and the emerging markets msci stock price index the strength of the dollar has been especially bearish for the price of oil though causality also runs the other way while the crb raw industrials spot price index dropped during september and october it seems to be finding support at the bottom of its trading range which starts in mid 2012 a sharp drop below the bottom of this range would be a worrisome indication of a rapid global economic slowdown also mildly encouraging is that the em msci seems to have stopped falling in recent days despite the latest surge in the dollar which was mostly attributable to the drop in the yen when the boj expanded and extended qqe at the end of last month today s morning briefing competitive devaluation 1 us msci continues to outperform 2 dollar soaring as ecb and boj boost their balance sheets after fed terminated qe 3 devaluation is often a zero sum game 4 desperate measure for desperate countries 5 currency wishes come true for draghi and kuroda but not for economy and inflation 6 interesting correlations between us dollar commodity prices and em msci 7 china is first to report trade stats and they were good last month more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday november 11 2014 why is gold losing its luster excerpt gold is a hedge against inflationary monetary policy so why isn t it soaring anymore maybe it isn t doing so because the ultra easy monetary policies of the major central banks haven t boosted inflation instead they ve become increasingly concerned about the prospects of deflation especially at the ecb and boj at the fed the worry must be that the ecb and boj are exporting their deflation to the us by pursuing policies that are weakening their currencies a strong dollar hasn t historically been good for gold i ve previously explained why ultra easy monetary policy might be deflationary rather than inflationary in brief it might stimulate supply more than demand in the past easy money stimulated demand more than supply as borrowers borrowed lots of money and spent it all now their debt burdens are such that many may be maxed out meanwhile suppliers have taken advantage of easy money to expand their capacity assuming that if you build they will come that s been a bad assumption for a lot of producers especially of commodities gold also tends to reflect the underlying trend in commodity prices including the price of crude oil their trends have been mostly flat since 2011 and down more recently today s morning briefing more relief 1 recalling the causes of october s panic attack 2 where are we now 3 cocoa price as an ebola thermometer 4 reversal of futures distant crude oil prices exceeding nearby ones 5 qe termination anxiety in us dissipated by more of it from ecb and boj 6 eurozone economy crawling along 7 chinese curse prolonged soft landing 8 falling oil prices depress energy earnings but boost transportation earnings 9 us consumers have the will and means to spend 10 crude oil plunge yields winners and losers 11 evil doers in russia and iran among the losers more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis 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