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two variables remain bullish for bonds today s morning briefing accentuating some positives 1 s p 500 remains near record high despite drop in energy stock prices 2 small business owners are feeling very good 3 lots of job openings 4 fomc voters williams and lockhart are patient men 5 nine reasons why bond yields are falling in us 6 bond yields falling worldwide 7 china s exports showing more life than china s imports more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 13 2015 the commodity super cycle wasn t so super excerpt last year on numerous occasions i argued that the commodity super cycle wasn t so super it lasted roughly 10 years it started when the crb raw industrials spot price index which does not include petroleum troughed at 214 on november 5 2001 coinciding with china joining the world trade organization on december 11 of that year it rose 198 to peak at 638 on april 11 2011 it dropped sharply that year and has been range bound between approximately 500 550 since then on friday it was down to 490 which may signal a breakdown commodity producers expanded their capacity expecting a 20 to 30 year super cycle driven by ever increasing demand from china instead the eurozone fell into a recession during 2011 and seems mired in structural stagnation while china s growth has slowed industrial production data through november show that output remains below the 2011 highs for france germany spain and the uk during december china s ppi for manufacturing was down 2 5 y y the 32nd consecutive monthly decline china s ppi for raw materials was down 6 4 y y the weakest since october 2009 it was led by a 19 0 drop in ferrous metals prices the heavy industry ppi was down 3 5 while the light industry ppi was down 0 6 today s morning briefing commodity wage deflation 1 goldman s oil forecast 2 are commodities an asset class 3 goldman s commodity index is drowning in oil 4 crb raw industrials spot price index is on edge 5 global growth barometer indicating stormy weather 6 more ppi deflation in china 7 a real prince 8 saudi s shale game 9 why did wages fall during december 10 slicing and dicing average hourly earnings 11 another curve ball for the fed more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday january 12 2015 mixed employment report excerpt december s wage data were disappointing indeed while private sector payroll employment rose solidly by 240 000 and the average workweek for the sector was unchanged at 34 6 hours the drop in private sector wages by 0 2 m m caused our earned income proxy to flatten during december following november s jump of 0 8 m m that doesn t augur well for retail sales however the strong pace of employment and the boost to real incomes from lower energy costs should drive consumer spending higher in coming months let s review the employment report 1 payroll employment rose 2 95 million last year the best calendar year gain since 1999 upward revisions totaling 50 000 during october and november boosted the former s gain to 261 000 and the latter s to 353 000 2 full time employment rose to a cyclical high of 119 9 million at the end of last year according to the household survey that s the most since july 2008 part time employment fluctuated around 27 5 million last year in other words there is no evidence in these data that obamacare boosted part time employment as was widely feared that doesn t mean i am endorsing the program rather i continue to be impressed by the resilience of the economy despite washington s meddling 3 the labor force fell 273 000 during december as the number of dropouts rose 456 000 to a record high of 92 9 million many economists have been expecting that this number would fall as the labor market tightened and encouraged more people to reenter the labor force because jobs are easier to get that hasn t happened so far it is likely that many long term unemployed workers are dropping out today s morning briefing averting a catastrophe 1 fairy godmother and godfather 2 charles evans is an influential and patient member of the fomc 3 is the fed more or less patient than evans 4 normalization looking less likely this year to us 5 see you after april 28 29 fomc meeting 6 stronger dollar could hurt 7 wage inflation heading in the wrong direction 8 wage weakness noise or signal 9 despite solid job gains workers continue to drop out of labor force 10 wild more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday january 8 2015 s p 500 transportation stocks boosted by lower oil price excerpt in the us the transportation industry is a big winner from falling oil prices it is one of the few where industry analysts have responded quickly to the drop in energy prices by raising their s p 500 transportation earnings forecasts for 2014 2015 and 2016 as a result forward earnings rose 17 0 during the second half of last year up from the first half s increase of 8 5 the forward profit margin for the sector is up from last year s low of 9 0 during the week of january 23 to 10 4 at the end of last year today s morning briefing job machine 1 adp payroll data augur well for bls measure 2 humming along 3 oil still gushing in texas and n dakota 4 no sign of trouble in jobless claims yet 5 direct impact of oil plunge on us employment and capital spending is very small 6 adp data should get more respect 7 small firms turning into larger firms account for lots of employment gains 8 oil windfall for advanced economies is almost 1 trillion 9 ditto for emerging economies 10 industry analysts raising profit margin and earnings forecasts for s p 500 transportation stocks 11 focus on overweight rated s p 500 transportation sector more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday january 7 2015 s p 500 earnings holding up despite oil price plunge excerpt while forward earnings are dropping sharply for the s p 500 energy sector forward earnings are holding up quite well in the other sectors this analysis is based on aggregate dollar values rather than per share over the past 12 weeks through the week of 12 25 the forward earnings of the s p 500 energy sector plunged 30 by 38 billion to 90 billion as a result s p 500 forward earnings peaked during the week of october 2 at a record high and edged down by 3 2 through the end of the year excluding energy forward earnings rose to yet another record high at the end of 2014 standard poor s capital iq provides consensus earnings forecasts for each quarter the sector estimates for q4 are lower since the end of q3 led by energy which has been revised down sharply by 26 2 the overall s p 500 s q4 estimate is down 7 1 excluding energy it is down 5 2 today s morning briefing the world according to gross 1 gross warning 2 a bungee scenario for oil price 3 the debt super cycle is rolling over 4 so is the commodity super cycle 5 easy money has been stimulating supply more than demand lately 6 party is over for zombies 7 can us decouple from global secular stagnation 8 consumers windfall from lower fuel costs is over 200 billion 9 raising the odds of the endgame while lowering the odds of irrational exuberance 10 getting harder to see fed raising rates this year under any scenario 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 industrials more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday january 6 2015 drowning in oil excerpt the ongoing freefall in the price of crude oil is unsettling investors it dropped to 53 04 per barrel of brent crude yesterday the lowest since may 2009 it is down 54 from last year s peak of 115 15 on june 19 the next significant support may be the december 24 2008 low of 32 27 at the end of last year saudi arabia s oil minister ali al naimi said in the middle east economic survey that the current prices of oil will persist over the long term and that oil prices will never go back to 100 he also told the ft it is not in the interest of opec producers to cut production whatever the price whether it is 20 40 50 or 60 it does not make sense according to him if saudi arabia lowers its production prices will rise again but the russians brazilians and us shale oil producers will take market share from us for ali al naimi with production costs at 4 5 per barrel the gulf countries can hold indefinitely with oil at current prices or even if it fell to as low as 20 per barrel in contrast the production of shale oil in the us costs in a range between 50 80 per barrel they will be injured before we felt any pain he declared now consider the following 1 hedges yesterday reuters posted an article titled revamped u s oil hedges may test opec s patience the key point as a war of nerves between u s shale producers and gulf powerhouses intensifies opec s biggest members are counting down the months until their upstart rivals lose the one thing shielding them from crashing oil prices hedges they may need much more patience than they reckon however because those hedges are a moving target rather than wait for their price insurance to run out many companies are racing to revamp their policies cashing in well placed hedges to increase the number of future barrels hedged according to industry consultants bankers and analysts familiar with the deals 2 stress test on the other hand bloomberg yesterday ran an article titled oil below 60 tests economics of u s shale boom it notes that oil companies started slashing their capital budgets late last year when oil was still above 60 a barrel bloomberg also reported that some of the largest u s shale drillers have been spending money faster than they make it borrowing to pay for their expansion according financial statements filed with the u s securities and exchange commission the 12 15 ft reported almost 1tn of spending on future oil projects is at risk after a brutal plunge in crude prices to nearly 60 a barrel goldman sachs has warned any cancellation of these developments would deprive the world of 7 5m barrels a day of new output over the coming decade or 8 per cent of current global oil demand the findings suggest the supply glut that has sent prices tumbling could soon vanish as the oil majors delay big ticket production projects the lifeblood of future petrol supplies heating fuels and chemicals 3 rig count it s too soon to tell but my hunch is that us crude oil production peaked at the end of last year and could fall rapidly in coming months the us oil rig count peaked at 1 609 during the week of october 10 and fell to 1 482 through the week ending january 2 today s morning briefing here we go again 1 déjà vu all over again 2 fear making a comeback 3 euro mess is back with talk of grexit 4 is qe the answer to whatever it takes for the eurozone 5 german bond yield just north of zero 6 drowning in oil 7 saudi oil minister gets the prize for lowest oil price target at 20 8 will hedges keep us frackers pumping longer than expected 9 oil industry is slashing budgets 10 plunging oil prices should trigger plunge in oil production 11 energy sector is weighing on s p 500 forward earnings which is at a record high excluding the sector 12 focus on market weight rated s p 500 auto related industries more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday january 5 2015 a happy new year so far excerpt in the us it is a happy new year already it isn t for everyone but it certainly is starting this way for us consumers payroll employment rose 2 73 million over the 12 months through november the best such gain since march 2006 the average hourly wage rate rose 2 1 y y that month while pced prices rose 1 2 the recent plunge in gasoline prices is providing consumers with an annualized windfall of about 200 billion this happy news is boosting various measures of consumer confidence 1 consumer comfort index bloomberg s weekly measure of consumer confidence jumped late last year ending 2014 at the highest level since october 2007 consumers turned more bullish on the state of the economy and the buying climate 2 consumer confidence index the present situation component of the consumer confidence index rose to a new cyclical high during december and the best reading since february 2008 the percentage of this survey s respondents who said that jobs are hard to get dropped to 27 7 last month that s down from the cyclical high of 49 4 during september 2011 and the lowest since march 2008 it tends to be highly correlated with the unemployment rate which should continue to fall this year consumers are in the mood to spend some more revised data showed that they did so during q3 contributing 2 2 percentage points to the quarter s 5 0 increase in real gdp no wonder that the ata trucking index of freight tonnage jumped 3 5 m m in november to a new record high intermodal railcar loadings also rose to a new record high at the end of last year today s morning briefing another happy year 1 santa was early last year 2 dow theory is bullish 3 still targeting 2300 for s p 500 4 bond kings remain bullish on bonds and we are inclined to agree 5 hard to argue against stronger dollar 6 oil could retest 2008 low before bouncing back to around 60 7 us gdp should gain from lower oil prices 8 us msci should continue to outperform 9 eurozone is a mess again 10 china s zombies 11 consumer confidence is soaring according to weekly measure 12 the imitation game more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom follow yardeni our twitter page search translate about dr ed yardeni is the president and chief investment strategist of yardeni research inc a provider of independent investment strategy and economics research this blog highlights excerpts from our research service which is designed for investment and business professionals chart rooms please see our new and improved website which works great as an app too blog archive 2021 16 september 1 june 2 may 2 april 3 march 3 february 3 january 2 2020 37 december 3 november 3 october 2 september 3 august 2 july 5 june 3 may 3 april 4 march 2 february 4 january 3 2019 34 december 3 november 3 october 4 september 3 august 4 july 1 june 1 may 1 april 1 march 5 february 4 january 4 2018 55 december 1 november 2 october 3 september 9 august 8 july 6 june 5 may 6 april 6 march 6 february 3 2017 43 december 2 november 2 october 1 september 4 august 4 july 4 june 4 may 5 april 4 march 5 february 4 january 4 2016 41 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