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onal distortions more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels central banks earnings revenues ecb eurozone wednesday may 20 2015 valuation the fed model excerpt valuation like beauty is in the eye of the beholder with bond yields at historical lows why shouldn t valuation multiples be at historical highs at 2 the 10 year treasury bond yield has an effective forward p e of 50 implying that stocks trading at a forward earnings yield of 5 9 and a multiple of 17 are grossly undervalued by as much as 62 of course this fed model as i first named it back in july 1997 has been showing that stocks are undervalued since the tech bubble burst furthermore historically low interest rates may be a sign of secular stagnation which isn t particularly bullish previously i ve argued that valuations are being driven by equity purchasers who don t pay much attention to valuations they are corporate managers buying back their shares because the forward earnings yields on their shares exceed their borrowing cost of capital in the bond market as far as they are concerned beauty is measured by the appreciation of their stock price as they buy back their shares in this scenario the source of irrational exuberance is the ultra cheap money available in the bond market for share buy backs and m a thanks to the ultra easy monetary policies of the fed today s morning briefing beauty contest 1 episode 42 in the twilight zone 2 different strokes dear leader vs king kong 3 some pushback on valuation 4 irrational exuberance zone 5 the 3 scenarios again 6 channeling the tech bubble 7 record peg for s p 500 8 smithers co on tobin s q 9 does valuation matter 10 do interest rates matter 11 draghi renews his vows 12 front end loaded qe 13 lackluster recovery in eurozone more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds buybacks central banks fed stocks us valuation yellen tuesday may 19 2015 reenergized earnings excerpt if oil prices have bottomed and the dollar has peaked then forward earnings should be moving forward again until recently the s p 500 forward earnings was tracking 7 annualized growth the historical trend for this series if so then forward earnings is currently predicting that the four quarter trailing average of s p 500 earnings which was 119 20 per share during q1 will rise to around 125 early next year i am forecasting 130 for all of 2016 up from 120 this year of course this optimistic outlook requires that the economy finds some traction to get out of its current soft patch with both business sales and industrial production rebounding from their recent dips and moving to new highs again today s morning briefing reenergized earnings 1 from peak oil to cheap oil to bad oil data 2 will the real phil please stand up 3 what are oil inventories doing 4 eia gets authority to require oil drillers to fill out a monthly supply survey 5 fewer railcar loadings of oil 6 lots in storage still 7 world oil demand supply ratio remains bearish 8 oil earnings may have stopped weighing on s p 500 9 profit margins rebounding from recent dip 10 brighter outlook for earnings depends on soft patch as well as oil patch 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 energy industries more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commodities crude oil currencies earnings revenues stocks us monday may 18 2015 revenues earnings coming back down to earth excerpt while valuation multiples are flying into the wild blue yonder revenues and earnings have been coming back down to earth but that s all because of the crash in the energy sector excluding this sector the skies are still relatively sunny nevertheless investors have to beware of repeating the fate of greek mythology s icarus who flew too close to the sun melting the wax on his homemade wings and sending him into the sea it was the first meltdown recorded in human history let s have a closer look at the data 1 revenues the y y growth in s p 500 revenues as compiled by thomson reuters i b e s is highly correlated with the comparable growth in manufacturing and trade sales the former was down 1 8 y y through q1 while the latter declined 2 4 through march however excluding petroleum products business sales rose 2 4 y y petroleum related sales plunged 31 7 y y through march 2 earnings thomson reuters i b e s calculates that s p 500 earnings fell 6 3 q q to 28 58 per share during q1 it was up just 1 4 y y excluding the energy sector q1 earnings rose 11 5 the following sectors had very strong results health care 19 8 financials 19 5 and tech 11 2 today s morning briefing wild blue yonder 1 david bowie s scenario for stocks 2 valuations are flying into the wild blue yonder 3 blue angels and the stunt plane 4 icarus and major tom 5 revenues and earnings have come back to earth but are still flying excluding energy 6 joe confirms earnings rose 11 5 y y during q1 excluding energy 7 not much spring in consumer s step 8 four theories for why consumer spending is disappointing more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commodities crude oil earnings revenues us valuation thursday may 14 2015 bond market sprechen sie deutsch excerpt yesterday s much weaker than expected us retail sales report initially caused the 10 year us treasury bond yield to fall in the morning then it spent the rest of the day moving higher the comparable pesky german bond yield continued to move higher to 0 73 from its record low of 0 03 on april 17 the us bond yield has been joined at the hip with the german one all year while april s payroll employment report put a fed rate hike back on the table yet again for june the retail sales report arguably took it off the table yet again that should have been bullish for bonds instead the dollar took a dive on the soft patch sales report the weaker dollar lifted the prices of precious metals and oil before crude oil inventory data depressed them which also unnerved bonds a 2 bond yield looks attractive for the us 10 year treasury given the subdued outlook for the fed s rate hiking the problem is that if the german yield gets there the us yield will be closer to 3 that would make it even more attractive as long as you didn t buy the bond at 2 today s morning briefing consumers not registering 1 less ka ching around the world 2 a demographic theory of secular stagnation 3 older workers can t depend on broke social welfare states 4 may you live a long life and have lots of savings 5 how governments depressed fertility 6 us retail sales join the soft patch batch 7 china s senior moment 8 japan italy and germany are at the top of median age ranking 9 spotting some shoppers in europe 10 bonds learning to speak deutsche 11 focus on market weight rated s p 500 retail industry more for subscriber s posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds central banks commodities crude oil currencies eurozone fed us us consumer us employment wednesday may 13 2015 what s driving yields higher except only a few weeks ago we all figured out why bond yields had dropped close to zero in the eurozone it was mostly because the ecb implemented qe on march 9 and pledged to buy bonds yielding at least the same as the central bank s deposit rate which was lowered to minus 0 20 on september 4 that hasn t changed so why the backup in bond yields maybe the markets have concluded that the ecb s qe will avert deflation and boost the eurozone s economic growth the rebound in oil prices certainly helped to allay some of the deflation concerns in the bond market oil prices stopped falling on january 13 the price of copper stopped falling on january 29 and is up 18 since then both have been highly correlated with the us bond yield over the past year the rebound in the price of oil may be a correction of a severely oversold condition the supply demand balance remains bearish but turmoil in the middle east is recurring and tends to add a risk premium to the price of oil the price of copper may reflect an improving global economy in general and a strengthening chinese economy in particular more likely it reflects expectations that the chinese government will provide lots of stimulus to revive china s growth rate which isn t likely to happen today s morning briefing major tom the fed 1 ground control has lost control of the bond market 2 bond yields should maintain current altitude for a while 3 stocks ready to go into outer space 4 a simple theory for the backup in yields 5 close correlation between bond yield and oil and copper prices over past year 6 us bond market no longer for isolationists 7 four fed heads speak 8 no big surprise in q1 earnings season s positive surprise 9 financials and health care sectors save the quarter 10 energy earnings crash and burn but s p 500 earnings up impressive 11 5 y y ex energy more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels bonds central banks china commodities crude oil ecb eurozone tuesday may 12 2015 us housing breaking ground excerpt many years ago before china emerged the price of copper was driven mostly by demand from the us housing industry could it be that us housing starts are taking off which is why copper is firming let s review some of the related indicators 1 employment residential construction payrolls rose 23 600 during april that was the best monthly increase since the start of the current housing expansion however that followed a decline of 1 800 during march the first decrease since may 2012 then again total residential construction employment rose to 2 45 million the highest since january 2009 2 railcar loadings on the other hand railcar loadings of lumber and wood products are consistent with the current subdued pace of housing starts 3 lumber prices while both are volatile there is a decent correlation between the nearby futures price of lumber and the s p 500 homebuilding stock price index i have found that an average of the two is highly correlated with housing starts the average is down 14 4 ytd today s morning briefing breaking bad 1 china s stock market turns volatile as p es surge 2 the insanity trade in china 3 pboc warns about too much debt as it cuts interest rates 4 china suffering from too much capacity too much debt too much deflation too much pollution and too many seniors 5 professor copper is bullish on china and bearish on bonds 6 is housing turning up or down 7 payrolls say up while lumber futures say down 8 brexit and grexit more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels commodities stocks us us employment monday may 11 2015 yellen on the wage question excerpt fed chair janet yellen has stressed the importance of wage inflation in influencing the fomc s decision to start raising interest rates april s average hourly earnings ahe for all workers rose just 0 1 m m and 2 2 y y she has said that she would like to see 3 4 wage gains or be reasonably confident that they are heading in that direction the three month change in this measure of wages settled down to 1 8 saar during april from 3 6 during march nothing to get yellen too excited which seemed to get the stock market very excited on friday however q1 s employment cost index eci for wages and salaries in the private sector a more comprehensive measure of wages than the ahe rose 2 7 y y the highest since q3 2008 the phillips curve which posits an inverse relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is actually working much better with the eci than the ahe measure of wages especially compared to the short term unemployment rate see phillips curve yellen is a big believer in the phillips curve she said so in an important 3 27 speech a substantial body of theory informed by considerable historical evidence suggests that inflation will eventually begin to rise as resource utilization continues to tighten it is largely for this reason that a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not her emphasis be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal funds rate would be warranted with respect to wages i anticipate that real wage gains for american workers are likely to pick up to a rate more in line with trend labor productivity growth as employment settles in at its maximum sustainable level we could see nominal wage growth eventually running notably higher than the current roughly 2 percent pace in a footnote she cited four studies for recent evidence on the relationship between labor market slack and wages today s morning briefing goldilocks godmother 1 janet hamlet to lift or not to lift that is the question 2 janet christine high and mighty say stocks are mighty high 3 yellen s dashboard shows labor market is cruising 4 phillips curve may be starting to work pointing to bigger wage gains 5 april retail sales may settle soft patch question 6 yellen s latest assessment of stock valuation it s high 7 addictive fairy dust 8 another relief rally after latest feared outcomes turn out to be nonevents 9 on the verge of a melt up 10 energy materials and financials join the rally parade 11 eci vs ahe more for subscribers posted by dr ed yardeni at 12 05 am no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels central banks fed inflation us us employment wages yellen thursday may 7 2015 why are bonds taking a dive excerpt us bond yields have jumped recently the 10 year treasury is up from a recent low of 1 87 on april 17 to 2 26 yesterday everyone is blaming that development on the spike in eurozone bond yields particularly the surge in the 10 year german government yield from its all time low of 0 033 on april 17 to 0 58 yesterday that s despite the implementation of qe by the ecb starting on march 9 with the benefit of hindsight the backup in yields isn t a surprise yields simply fell too low at the start of the year on fears that plunging oil prices might trigger widespread deflation especially in the eurozone and maybe cause another financial crisis if oil companies started to default on their debts now that oil prices have rebounded those concerns are evaporating and yields are normalizing i think it s that simple in any event the backup in bond yields is doing the same to mortgage rates in the us that could stall the already lackluster recovery in the housing industry which might explain why lumber prices are falling so maybe the fed should postpone its lift off given the lif...