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Text of the page (random words):
willis s graph that color coded index for the curve and trend for the southern oscillation index data is incorrectly identified as the southern ocean index also note a second typo noaa has a nino3 4 index not a nino34 index third willis has inverted the off equatorial southern oscillation index soi data normally southern oscillation index soi data is presented without being inverted so that el niño spikes are downward and la niña spikes are upward which is the opposite of how they appear with the other indices of course he inverted the soi data so that he could include that off equatorial enso index in his comparison graph fourth following his figure 5 willis states in the text of his post you can see the peaks representing the big el ninos around 1997 98 and 2015 16 recall that according to my thermoregulatory hypothesis the pacific should be trending towards a more la nina condition which is more negative and all four indices in varying amounts show this exact outcome in response to the slow gradual warming since 1980 we have more la nina conditions cooling the planet i had never heard of willis s thermoregulatory hypothesis prior to reading his recent post linked above therefore it will be up to you readers to comment on whether the flattening of the trend lines when the data for the enso indices starts in 1970 as shown in the graphs below has any impact on his thermoregulatory hypothesis i also have a question for you readers about the above quoted paragraphs from willis s post why did he identify the strong 1997 98 and 2015 16 el niños but not the strong el niño of 1982 83 or the strong one of 1987 88 portion of the 1986 87 88 el niño or the strong 1991 92 el niño those other three el niño events all exceeded noaa s 1 5 deg c threshold for a strong el niño fifth regarding the start year of willis s graph i stated in a comment on that wuwt thread that the 1980 1979 start year was curious considering that it was a few years prior to the strong 1982 83 el niño further on that thread i suggested to willis that he exclude the data for the multivariate enso index mei and he start a set of reference graphs in 1970 to include the la niña dominant early to mid 1970s in an effort to see what happened to the trends i advised him that i would present them if he chose not to he chose not to as far as i know so i did they follow so let s start the presentation a few notes about the following graphs the following three pairs of time series graphs are provided to show the easily discernable flattening of the trend lines when the start date for the enso index graphs is changed from 1979 used by willis eschenbach in his post at wuwt to 1970 in the graphs starting in 1970 the strong 1972 73 el niño and the three la niña events one moderate two strong in the early to mid 1970s really stand out in the graphs of the oni and nino3 4 data not so much in the soi data why did i use 1970 as the start year the early to mid 1970s are dominated by la niña events as are the most recent years in other words with the 1970 start year the graph starts and ends in periods dominated by la niña events making it difficult for anyone to accuse me of cherry picking the start year i didn t use any smoothing on the data in the graphs that would reduce the magnitude of the enso variations and make the trends appear greater by comparison additionally as i presented the data for each index individually there was no need to standardize the data as a result the graphs are of data as provided by the suppliers which are linked in the following discussions oceanic nino index oni graphs figures 2a and 2b present the unsmoothed monthly oceanic nino index oni data data here with 2a starting in january 1979 and 2b with the data starting in january 1970 with the 1979 start figure 2a there is a noticeable trend from positive values to negative but with the 1970 start figure 2b the trend line flattens greatly figure 2a figure 2b noaa nino3 4 index graphs figures 3a and 3b present the unsmoothed monthly noaa nino3 4 index data data here 3a with the data starting in january 1979 and 3b with the data starting in january 1970 with the 1979 start figure 3a there is a very minor trend from positive values to negative but with the 1970 start figure 3b the trend changes sign to a very minor trend from negative to positive figure 3a figure 3b southern oscillation index soi graphs a reminder the noisy off equatorial sea level pressure based southern oscillation index soi data shows el niño events as downward spikes and la niña events as upward ones the opposite of the sea surface temperature based enso indices figures 4a and 4b present the unsmoothed monthly southern oscillation index soi data data here 4a with the data starting in january 1979 and 4b with the data starting in january 1970 with the 1979 start figure 4a there is a noticeable trend from negative el niño values to positive la niña ones but with the 1970 start figure 4b the trend flattens very noticeably figure 4a figure 4b a final graph unsmoothed multivariate enso index mei data shows something very curious figure 5 presents the unsmoothed monthly multivariate enso index mei starting in january 1979 data here a couple of things stand out note how the strong el niño of 2015 16 has a lesser peak value than strong 1982 83 and 1997 98 el niños while with the sea surface temperature only based enso indices oni and nino3 4 index show the 2015 16 el niño peaks at a higher value than the other two note also how the la niña events toward the end of the mei data have much greater negative values than the oni and nino3 4 data while toward the beginning the la niñas have lesser negative values figure 5 the mei data appears very skewed toward a negative trend compared to the sea surface temperature only based enso indices therefore the next time some alarmist says that strong el niños are growing stronger due to global warming show them a graph of the mei data closing in closing here s a very brief introduction to el niño events from one of my recent short stories it was also included in a 2019 post here at wuwt most news stories about el niños call them unusual warming events in the eastern tropical pacific ocean off the west coast of south america they re the cause of the huge upward spikes we see in the global surface temperature graphs they are much more than just warming events and further regardless of what the numbskull science reporters say there s nothing unusual about them magnificent would be a better word here are the facts el niño events occur every two to seven years el niños are the most amazing and the most powerful weather events ever devised by mother nature how powerful el niños are often kick started by series of tropical storms in the western tropical pacific further from that post el niño and la niña events act together as a chaotic naturally occurring sunlight fueled recharge discharge oscillator with el niño events acting as the discharge phase and la niña events acting as the recharge phase i hope you enjoyed this post have fun regards bob posted in el nino la nina processes uncategorized 22 comments the mission of dr fauci s niaid posted on july 22 2021 by bob tisdale dr fauci has been the director the u s national institute of allergy and infectious diseases or niaid since 1984 the mission statement of the niaid begins my boldface the niaid mission is to conduct and support basic and applied research to better understand treat and ultimately prevent infectious immunologic and allergic diseases question 1 so how s that working out for us question 2 is it time for a change of director for the niaid posted in uncategorized 4 comments joe uh biden posted on september 21 2020 by bob tisdale democratic presidential candidate joe biden illustrated for all to see how much his public speaking capabilities have decayed during his comments following the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg throughout a less than 3 ½ minute reading of a prepared speech biden interjected uh about 2 dozen times warning it s extremely hard to uh listen to stay safe and healthy uh all regards bob posted in uncategorized 3 comments sleepy joe posted on august 31 2020 by bob tisdale have fun in the comments stay safe and healthy all bob posted in uncategorized 1 comment extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate part 10 the contiguous u s posted on february 17 2020 by bob tisdale this is the last in a series of ten posts that present graphs of noaa precipitation drought palmer drought severity index pdsi and temperature tmin tavg and tmax data for the contiguous united states and the 9 noaa climate regions thereof for the most recent 100 years 1919 to 2018 of data that were available at the time that i prepared my paperback book extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate which is the source of the graphs that book was first published in may 2019 the subtitle of the book is graphs of 100 years of noaa contiguous u s climate data 2018 edition a book that noaa should have published links to the nine earlier posts in this series can be found toward the end of this one continue reading posted in uncategorized 3 comments extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate part 9 noaa s west climate region posted on february 10 2020 by bob tisdale this is the ninth in a series of ten posts that present graphs of noaa precipitation drought palmer drought severity index pdsi and temperature tmin tavg and tmax data for the contiguous united states and the 9 noaa climate regions thereof for the most recent 100 years 1919 to 2018 of data that were available at the time that i prepared my paperback book extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate which is the source of the graphs that book was first published in may 2019 the subtitle of the book is graphs of 100 years of noaa contiguous u s climate data 2018 edition a book that noaa should have published continue reading posted in uncategorized 1 comment extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate part 8 noaa s northwest climate region posted on february 6 2020 by bob tisdale this is the eighth in a series of ten posts that present graphs of noaa precipitation drought palmer drought severity index pdsi and temperature tmin tavg and tmax data for the contiguous united states and the 9 noaa climate regions thereof for the most recent 100 years 1919 to 2018 of data that were available at the time that i prepared my paperback book extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate which is the source of the graphs that book was first published in may 2019 the subtitle of the book is graphs of 100 years of noaa contiguous u s climate data 2018 edition a book that noaa should have published continue reading posted in uncategorized 4 comments extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate part 7 noaa s southwest climate region posted on february 3 2020 by bob tisdale this is the seventh in a series of ten posts that present graphs of noaa precipitation drought palmer drought severity index pdsi and temperature tmin tavg and tmax data for the contiguous united states and the 9 noaa climate regions thereof for the most recent 100 years 1919 to 2018 of data that were available at the time that i prepared my paperback book extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate which is the source of the graphs that book was first published in may 2019 the subtitle of the book is graphs of 100 years of noaa contiguous u s climate data 2018 edition a book that noaa should have published continue reading posted in uncategorized 5 comments extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate part 6 noaa s south climate region posted on january 30 2020 by bob tisdale this is the sixth in a series of ten posts that present graphs of noaa precipitation drought palmer drought severity index pdsi and temperature tmin tavg and tmax data for the contiguous united states and the 9 noaa climate regions thereof for the most recent 100 years 1919 to 2018 of data that were available at the time that i prepared my paperback book extremes and averages in contiguous u s climate which is the source of the graphs that book was first published in may 2019 the subtitle of the book is graphs of 100 years of noaa contiguous u s climate data 2018 edition a book that noaa should have published continue reading posted in uncategorized 5 comments older posts donations are accepted categories 2014 15 el nino series 2015 16 el nino series 97 consensus about the blog aerosols alarmism animation anthropogenic ocean warming atlantic multidecadal oscillation cagw proponent arguments celebrities on climate climate assessment report faults climate model failings climate model problems climategate co2 different perspective drought el nino la nina processes enso update essays books freeman dyson fun giss global temperature update global warming goofiness global warming in perspective global warming optimism hadcrut4 hiatus hiroshima bomb metric 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