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there are more technical details which ensure the security of the whole system but they re not important to this discussion what is important is that it is commonly said that this scarcity is what gives bitcoin its value and there are some problems with that is bitcoin like gold people often say bitcoin is like gold and highlight the fact that like gold it s valuable because it s scarce and because other people believe it s valuable i d like to get a small point out of the way mere belief isn t the sole reason for gold s value if everyone suddenly stopped caring about how pretty and shiny gold is it would still have some utility which could be cashed in on gold actually has some very useful properties it s conductive it s extremely malleable and it s chemically inert making it very resistant to corrosion assuming its scarcity remains roughly the same the value of gold can therefore only drop so far because if the price went down far enough it would suddenly become profitable to make all sorts of nifty electronics and corrosion resistant gadgets out of gold and demand would stop falling somewhere above zero 1 we can try to get a crude first order estimate of the industrial value of gold by comparing it to copper which has similar properties if we assume the practical utility and thus the demand of gold and copper are similar then we can estimate the price by comparing the supply extracted copper is roughly 6 000 times more abundant than extracted gold so assuming similar demand we d expect the scarcity of the latter to drive its price to about 6 000 times that of copper s current 20 cents per troy ounce that puts gold s utilitarian price at right around 1200 which is almost exactly its actual current price since gold has some additional utility due to its wealth density one of these might be somewhat mis priced gold s utility beyond a material yardstick of wealth is one thing that lends some credibility to its value this is not true for bitcoin a bitcoin is a number and that number has no utility outside of its ability to be accepted by someone else unlike gold the the minimum value of a bitcoin is zero its value if everyone stops believing it works this is one reason why a bitcoin is a risky way to hold assets this is a common argument against bitcoin and i know what many of you are going to say next well the dollar is the same way isn t it yes just like bitcoin the minimum value of a dollar 2 i am going to use dollar for the rest of this article to stand in for an arbitrary unit of traditional fiat money obviously everything works pretty much the same way for any other currency feel free to mentally substitute with yours is also zero and a dollar has no value outside of its ability to be accepted by someone else in exchange for something valuable so could we imagine a society where btc is on the same footing as the dollar is popularity the only thing distinguishing the two if both have no inherent value what s the difference let s talk about where the value of currency comes from some people still surprisingly believe the value of the dollar is backed by gold this has not been true since 1971 and that is not going to change either the dollar is fiat money which continue reading footnotes 1 we can try to get a crude first order estimate of the industrial value of gold by comparing it to copper which has similar properties if we assume the practical utility and thus the demand of gold and copper are similar then we can estimate the price by comparing the supply extracted copper is roughly 6 000 times more abundant than extracted gold so assuming similar demand we d expect the scarcity of the latter to drive its price to about 6 000 times that of copper s current 20 cents per troy ounce that puts gold s utilitarian price at right around 1200 which is almost exactly its actual current price since gold has some additional utility due to its wealth density one of these might be somewhat mis priced 2 i am going to use dollar for the rest of this article to stand in for an arbitrary unit of traditional fiat money obviously everything works pretty much the same way for any other currency feel free to mentally substitute with yours this entry was posted in uncategorized on december 11 2017 by tbabb 12 trail runs under 10 miles in sf and the east bay i can t overemphasize the rewards of starting a running club about a year ago i started one nearly by accident a routine of solo running morphed into a weekly social event every saturday or sunday five or six of us gather in the mid morning run five to ten miles and then have brunch together afterwards the way i see it this is a quadruple refill for the soul a combination of four things that have immense positive impact on your mood you re getting exercise you re being social you re outside getting sunshine and nature you re accomplishing something the delicious food and frequently drinks at the end of it don t hurt either with that plug out of the way i offer below a catalog of twelve routes we ve found over the last year continue reading this entry was posted in uncategorized on may 25 2016 by tbabb infinitely aged christmas pudding while somewhat difficult to make this recipe for extra long aged christmas pudding is rich in flavor 1 lb raisins currants chopped apples prunes 1 oz candied peel 4 tbsp brandy 4 oz bread crumbs 2 oz flour 1 oz chopped almonds 2 solar masses dark matter 1 3 4 yottajoules of negative energy 1 8 earth mass of lead or other heavy elements for radiation shielding if you can find a small moon it may be best to hollow out the core 1 penrose drive capable spacecraft provisions for 6 trillion years of space travel 1 handgun loaded with two bullets stoke the oven with the dark matter set it to closed timelike curve then turn it on and allow it to preheat if anything strange happens at this point don t worry about it it s fine mix the fruits peel and other stuff into a bowl or whatever once the oven is preheated retreat to a safe distance of about 1 5 au apply the negative energy wait for the gamma radiation to die down emerge from your shield moon and board the ship don t forget your provisions and gun boost toward the gaping black hole where your oven used to be approach the ergosphere taking care to maintain infinitesimal separation from the closed timelike curve when you re close enough chuck the pudding into it be careful not to run into any of the infinite copies of yourself now orbiting nearby draw your gun and fire on the copy of yourself in the orbit just below you the copy in the orbit just above you should be doing the same your infinity of guns and infinity of bullets should take care of the infinity of self copies with any luck you ll be the guy at the top good job descend toward the event horizon and nab the pudding on your way down check that it s an eigenstate of the universal wavefunction and that the fruit has firmed up well insert a toothpick it should come out clean of any protons which will have completely decayed after a literal eternity trapped in a repeating loop pass through the singularity and emerge from the pre heated oven with the pudding draw your gun again and fire on your past self who will have just switched the oven on serve and enjoy there will be no need to ignite the pudding as it will probably already be on fire from all the proton decay this entry was posted in fiction and tagged sci fi on december 21 2015 by tbabb second order fizzbuzz the fizzbuzz problem requires the construction of a well known list of interleaved numbers and nonsense words the list has been studied extensively and recent work at cern has constrained its utility to less than 10 16 of a mosquito s left nut in modern times the task of its production is typically relegated to computer programs it is an open question why some institutions continue to use fizzbuzz as a test of programming ability given universal knowledge of the test and the wide availability of solutions on google and stackoverflow programs that solve fizzbuzz are typically constructed by hand in an ad hoc manner often by inexperienced computer scientists and entail a hazard of boredom induced mortality below is presented an algorithmic solution to the second order problem of generating such programs in general we define a class of n th order fizzbuzz problems which require the production of a program which solves the n 1 th order fizzbuzz problem we use a variation on the stacksort algorithm due to munroe 2013 and first implemented by koberger 2013 which mimics a technique commonly employed in the wild here the continue reading this entry was posted in programming on december 11 2015 by tbabb how a kalman filter works in pictures i have to tell you about the kalman filter because what it does is pretty damn amazing surprisingly few software engineers and scientists seem to know about it and that makes me sad because it is such a general and powerful tool for combining information in the presence of uncertainty at times its ability to extract accurate information seems almost magical and if it sounds like i m talking this up too much then take a look at this previously posted video where i demonstrate a kalman filter figuring out the orientation of a free floating body by looking at its velocity totally neat what is it you can use a kalman filter in any place where you have uncertain information about some dynamic system and you can make an educated guess about what the system is going to do next even if messy reality comes along and interferes with the clean motion you guessed about the kalman filter will often do a very good job of figuring out what actually happened and it can take advantage of correlations between crazy phenomena that you maybe wouldn t have thought to exploit kalman filters are ideal for systems which are continuously changing they have the continue reading this entry was posted in mini courses programming on august 11 2015 by tbabb how to pronounce hexadecimal this bit from hbo s silicon valley cracked me up some kid is pitching his revolutionary startup idea to entrepreneur elrich bachman kid here it is bit soup it s like alphabet soup but it s ones and zeros instead of letters bachman silence kid cause it s binary you know binary s just ones and zeroes bachman yeah i know what binary is jesus christ i memorized the hexadecimal times tables when i was fourteen writing machine code okay ask me what nine times f is it s fleventy five i don t need you to tell me what binary is we infer that fleventy five is a hexadecimal number commonly used in coding presumably it s 0xf5 which is not 0x9 times 0xf as it happens but instead of saying eff five for the byte 0xf5 bachman has come up with some kind of novel system for the english ification of hex digits he s on to something we have ordinary english words for decimal numbers with names based on the digits and their place value seventy is the word for two digit chunks starting with the digit seven for example it might appear in the number seventy three or five hundred seventy one thousand both numbers with a 7 digit in an appropriate place fleventy then would be the number for two digit chunks starting with f hex only adds more kinds of digits the symbols a through f could we follow bachman s lead and add more number names for the extra digit symbols and pronounce hex just like a decimal number could we have a system that attains the unwieldiness and syllable count of spoken english numbers with all the respectable seriousness of saying the word fleventy i m glad you asked this has never been done before 1 probably but fear not here are the official new number words for hexadecimal you may start using them immediately hex place value word 0xa0 atta 0xb0 bibbity 0xc0 city 0xd0 dickety 0xe0 ebbity 0xf0 fleventy i think it would help to solidify this with some examples 0xb3 bibbity three 0xf5 fleventy five 0xe4 ebbity four 0xa7 atta seven 0xc5 city five 0xdb dickety bee higher place values but really we must go further what about numbers larger than a byte we have the words hundred and thousand for decimal place values higher than ten so why not something for hex place values higher than 0x10 say for multiples of 0x100 for this i propose bitey resulting in 0xdaf1 dickety a bitey fleventy one 0xe137 ebbity one bitey thirty seven 0xa0c9 atta bitey city nine 0xbbbb bibbity bee bitey bibbity bee naturally we could make yet larger numbers by devising some names for larger place values and combine them with intermediate values in the same way that we compose decimal numbers like thirty thousand or six hundred fifty one million as in english place value names could be dropped if you re feeling brief we ll also need hex digit words for the teens try it i ll leave you to explore the new naming system with this toy say place values how we ve conversed about hex without a system like this is beyond me you re welcome footnotes 1 probably this entry was posted in uncategorized on april 21 2015 by tbabb improving imu attitude estimates with velocity data this was last week s project building a kalman filter based imu imus inertial measurement units are clever little devices which try to estimate an object s absolute orientation and sometimes its position by examining the forces on the object hobby drone and computer input imus generally look at acceleration data which informs where down is compass data which points toward north in 3d space and rate gyro data which tells the axis and speed of spin down and north in combination can give a pretty accurate constraint on orientation but unfortunately if there are any lateral forces wind turning they will get mixed in with down and distort the estimate kalman filters use matrix math to make good use of the gyro data to correct for this however a constantly accelerating drone could still be fooled about where down is i ve tried here to find out whether we can try to model the drone s translation and take this into account when estimating the orientation it turns out that even relatively poor and infrequent data about velocity can constrain acceleration and thus down quite well the difference in the quality of the estimate is plainly visible this is all done by mathematically simulating a 3d moving object using ordinary dynamics and battering it with gaussian random forces and then predicting what data a noisy sensor might return a predictor algorithm using a kalman filter which has no knowledge about the original state attempts to recover the true state to the best of its ability the truth is rendered white here and the estimate in red at the end you can see the same algorithm running on actual sensors the real thing doesn t use gps yet but the prediction is still pretty decent there is not that much sustained acceleration to throw it off in this video i ve done some other cool things with the code which perhaps i ll write up in the future among them are a process noise model based on gaussi...