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ks diminishing uzbekistan s exclusive role as a trans eurasian transport link in theory the lapis lazuli corridor could be extended to pakistan by constructing a railway line from torghundi station on the afghan turkmen border to naibabad station which marks the beginning of the afghan section of the kabul corridor although this would exclude uzbekistan from the india eu supply chain it would enable the kabul corridor to attract additional cargo from the south caucasus and turkmenistan however this advantage would not offset uzbekistan s loss of transit flows from the larger economic centers of eurasia connecting the lapis lazuli and kabul corridors would motivate constructing the herat mazar i sharif railway which would breathe new life into the long standing five nations railway corridor project running through china kyrgyzstan tajikistan afghanistan and iran the five nations route bypasses uzbekistan significantly reducing the distance between east and west this will probably diminish the importance of the southern railway corridor which runs through central asia iran and turkey as well as the china kyrgyzstan uzbekistan railway which is intended to be an important component of this route at the same time constructing the herat mazar i sharif railway could undermine the lapis lazuli corridor s competitive advantage by increasing iranian transit iran already has rail access to northern afghanistan via the khaf herat route which is used to deliver afghan cargo to europe extending the khaf herat railway to naibabad station near mazar i sharif and connecting it to the kabul corridor would enable iran to divert potential cargo traffic from india and pakistan to turkey and europe via itself thereby depriving central asian and south caucasian countries of transit benefits consequently there is a possibility that the lapis lazuli corridor could be extended to south asia bypassing kabul and instead passing through kandahar this would stimulate the development of the western trans afghan railway along the torghundi herat kandahar spin buldak route turkmenistan and kazakhstan promote the project as an alternative to the kabul corridor russia should be considered a potential stakeholder in the extension of the lapis lazuli corridor along any of the trans afghan routes moscow has already announced plans to connect with afghanistan via the caspian sea utilising turkmenistan s port and rail infrastructure which would integrate russia into the lapis lazuli corridor this would establish a connection between india and russia and potentially europe through turkmenistan and the caspian port of turkmenbashi rather than through uzbekistan conclusions uzbekistan s best option for maintaining and enhancing its competitive advantages in trans eurasian and trans afghan transport is to accelerate construction of the kabul corridor involving all central asian states financially to the maximum extent possible kazakhstan s practical support for developing the kabul corridor is important as connecting it to the northern railway route to europe will enable astana to receive an additional transit flow of up to 20 million tons per year this will preempt any potential competition from astana and ashgabat in developing trans afghan transport connections it would be worth proposing to baku the joint promotion of a new multimodal corridor from india pakistan afghanistan uzbekistan and kazakhstan to azerbaijan georgia and the eu this would stimulate the development of the middle corridor by increasing transport from south asia and afghanistan to europe via the caspian sea moreover an alternative should be developed to the five nations route instead envisaging a connection between china afghanistan and iran through uzbekistan and neighboring countries this would ensure the profitability of the mazar i sharif herat railway project for tashkent author s bio nargiza umarova is a senior research fellow at the institute for advanced international studies iais university of world economy and diplomacy uwed and an analyst at the non governmental research institution knowledge caravan tashkent uzbekistan her research activities focus on developments in central asia trends in regional integration and the influence of great powers on this process she also explores uzbekistan s current policy on the creation and development of international transport corridors she can be contacted at this email address is being protected from spambots you need javascript enabled to view it extending the middle corridor to afghanistan implications for uzbekistan by nargiza umarova by syed fazl e haider the caspian sea is increasingly emerging as a focal point of geopolitical competition the joint military exercises conducted by russia and iran in july following similar drills by azerbaijan and kazakhstan in the northern caspian a month earlier underscore the region s rapid transformation into a nexus of strategic rivalries and evolving security alignments among the littoral states azerbaijan kazakhstan and turkmenistan are assuming particularly prominent roles in shaping the strategic landscape their efforts are supported by turkey which is facilitating the naval expansion of these three turkic nations russia s ongoing involvement in the war in ukraine has significantly weakened moscow s capacity to assert dominance over the caspian sea and to effectively utilize it as part of the international north south transport corridor instc linking russia to iran and india credit wikimedia commons background the caspian sea was widely regarded as a russian lake during the soviet era as iran possessing only a short caspian coastline showed little interest in utilizing it for power projection for decades russia s caspian flotilla maintained dominance over the waters of the inland sea after the soviet union s dissolution in 1991 moscow sought to preserve the existing balance of power in the caspian in 2018 russia secured an agreement among the five caspian littoral states on territorial delimitation excluding the military presence of non littoral actors in the sea the region experienced a significant geopolitical shift in 2020 after azerbaijan s victory in the 44 day war against armenia over the nagorno karabakh region turkey provided military assistance to azerbaijan during the conflict following the azerbaijan armenia war the caspian littoral states expanded their navies turkey continues to support azerbaijan s requirements for modern weapons equipment and ammunition in 2023 azerbaijan s defense minister zakir hasanov affirmed that ankara was baku s principal partner in military cooperation over the past five years turkey has facilitated the naval expansion of kazakhstan azerbaijan and turkmenistan these countries along with kyrgyzstan and uzbekistan are members of the turkey backed pan turkic union through this framework turkey has assumed a leading role in diminishing russia s influence over the military development of these states in 2023 turkey s asfar and yda group together with kazakhstan s uralsk plant zenit jsc concluded an agreement for the construction of offshore platforms in the caspian sea the agreement included the production of various naval vessels including main surface combat ships to fulfill the operational requirements of the kazakh navy likewise the deepening relations between turkey and turkmenistan signify a broader shift in energy geopolitics and highlight their shared strategic interests the bayraktar tb2 turkey s first domestically produced unmanned combat aerial vehicle ucav is deployed within turkmenistan s armed forces in february the two countries signed a gas supply agreement that offers turkmenistan a new export channel while consolidating turkey s position as a regional energy hub in 2024 the joint military exercises birleistik unity 2024 were conducted at kazakhstan s oymasha training ground and cape tokmak along the caspian coast marking the first such drills held without russian participation the armed forces of azerbaijan kazakhstan kyrgyzstan tajikistan and uzbekistan jointly participated in the exercise in april azerbaijan and kazakhstan announced plans to conduct the joint military exercises caspian breeze 2025 in the northern part of the caspian sea near russia s coastline the exercises commenced in june at aktau kazakhstan with the objective of strengthening the protection of maritime economic infrastructure naval bases and shipping routes a month later russia and iran initiated their own joint naval exercises casarex 2025 under the banner together for a safe and secure caspian sea these drills were designed to enhance maritime security and promote deeper naval cooperation between the two states the two joint military exercises within the span of a single month demonstrate a changing regional balance of power the caspian littoral states have expanded their naval capabilities in recent years thereby challenging russia s long standing hegemony in the caspian region implications the navies of the three turkic littoral states azerbaijan kazakhstan and turkmenistan have experienced substantial growth and deepened cooperation in recent years through a series of bilateral and multilateral security agreements and supported by turkey these states have enhanced their strategic position vis à vis russia these developments have not only strengthened the collective influence and military capacity of the turkic states but have also posed a significant challenge to russia s longstanding naval dominance in the caspian security cooperation among the three turkic littoral states in the absence of russian participation signifies a major geopolitical realignment in the caspian region for instance azerbaijan and turkmenistan have agreed to employ their joint naval forces to protect pipelines on the seabed and vessels operating on the surface the regional geopolitical competition is likely to intensify following iran s decision to resume drilling operations in the caspian after a 30 year hiatus this development could generate tensions with the three turkic littoral states which are already deeply engaged in offshore oil and gas extraction within the caspian sea turkey plays a pivotal role in the ongoing militarization of the caspian sea it initially strengthened azerbaijan s defense capabilities subsequently supported turkmenistan and is now actively engaged in enhancing kazakhstan s naval power according to yuri lyamin an analyst at the center for analysis of strategies and technologies cast kazakhstan is following the ongoing multi year process of strengthening the navies of caspian states the reasons and necessity of this can be debated but it is a long standing trend driven by prestige and the desire to keep up with its neighbors over the past decade and a half turkmenistan has built a very strong navy in the caspian including with turkey s assistance it was to a turkish design that turkmenistan s largest ship and one of the largest warships in the caspian the corvette deniz khan was commissioned and constructed in 2021 a considerable number of missile missile artillery and other boats for the turkmen border guards were also built based on turkish designs the growing number of actors in the region is complicating moscow s ability to utilize the area for strategic connectivity projects one of these is the international north south transport corridor instc a russia led project designed to connect russian ports with iran the gulf region and the indian ocean the instc agreement was initially signed in 2000 by russia iran and india was later joined by azerbaijan and several central asian states meanwhile iran is actively seeking alternative trade routes to the eu including via armenia conversely azerbaijan s port of baku serves as a critical hub within the east west trans caspian middle corridor which links china to the eu via central asia and the south caucasus thereby bypassing russia the middle corridor endows baku s with an important role for both europe and central asia by providing a viable alternative to russian transit routes facilitating efficient east west connectivity across the caspian and through the south caucasus similarly turkey promotes the integration of turkmenistan in the middle corridor which would advance turkey s long standing ambition to position itself as a strategic logistical bridge linking asia and europe the 2018 agreement grants the caspian states the right to construct gas pipelines across the seabed ankara aims to channel caspian gas to its territory via azerbaijan and onward to the eu elevating turkey s role as a pivotal energy hub however this directly contradicts russian interests and the potential exists for heightened tensions or even confrontation between the turkey backed turkic states and the russia iran alliance over control of the caspian sea s energy resources conclusions the geopolitical competition between the three turkey backed turkic littoral states and the russia iran alliance could intensify as both sides continue to expand their economic and military presence in the caspian region the increase in military exercises conducted over the past two years underscores the emergence of new security alignments within the caspian basin turkey has taken on a leading role in advancing the naval capabilities of the three turkic littoral states a position that was traditionally held by russia as turkey s involvement in the region deepens moscow s ability to shape the military development of these countries will likely be further marginalized russia meanwhile continues to bear significant geopolitical costs for its full scale invasion of ukraine in 2022 since the onset of the conflict moscow s influence across central asia and other regions including the caspian has steadily declined and other powers such as china and turkey have begun to fill the resulting vacuum author s bio syed fazl e haider is a karachi based analyst at the wikistrat he is a freelance columnist and the author of several books he has contributed articles and analysis to a range of publications he is a regular contributor to eurasia daily monitor of jamestown foundation email this email address is being protected from spambots you need javascript enabled to view it turkey backed turkic states challenge russia s hegemony in the caspian sea by syed fazl e haider by emil avdaliani the eu s deepening engagement with tajikistan through the enhanced partnership and cooperation agreement ecpa aligns with brussels broader economic and political outreach toward central asia this strategy represents another phase in the union s increasingly active policy toward the region the eu s interest is driven by the central asia s significance amid intensifying rivalry between the u s and china over control of supply chains critical for battery and electric vehicle production a further factor strengthening eu central asia relations is the regional states pursuit of multi alignment wa...