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ginal screenplay best actor best supporting actor best film editing i guess i m being optimistic we ll see in a few hours labels awards season 2008 posted by adam k 12 43 am 1 comments saturday january 03 2009 nsfc predictions and winners best picture my prediction wall e my alternate the wrestler could it happen the class actual winner waltz with bashir well i got the animated part right but wow best director my prediction mike leigh happy go lucky my alternate andrew stanton wall e or will they go with boyle again actual winner mike leigh yay for me is he in contention for an oscar nod he sure has done well with the critics no one else really has a claim on the lone director spot so i think if it s not him the directors will most likely match the best pic nominees best actor my prediction mickey rourke my alternate sean penn or maybe richard jenkins actual winner sean penn well i was close i assumed they d love the wrestler a little bit more than they did but i guess the critics are really getting behind sean penn for the win and why shouldn t they he ll need to really seem like a sweeper to scoop up oscar 2 best actress my prediction sally hawkins my alternate anne hathaway can she win one kristin scott thomas actual winner sally hawkins this was fairly easy i think they usually go for someone who hasn t yet gotten the critical attention they deserve but in this case the established critical favorite still hasn t locked up as a nominee so they re giving her one final push good best supporting actor my prediction heath ledger my alternate bill irwin or maybe one of the milk guys actual winner eddie marsan happy go lucky d oh deep down i kinda knew they d go with someone other than ledger but for some reason i forgot all about eddie marsan he and bill irwin are sharing the annual why can t they get traction slot and he did seem like the type who they d prop up what was i thinking oops best supporting actress my prediction marisa tomei my alternate penelope cruz will they throw her a bone rosemarie dewitt actual winner hanna schygulla the edge of heaven waaay outta left field but that s to be expected with this group and yay for me for having actually seen this movie i didn t care for it as much as most people did but hanna schygulla was very good and bold choices are always fun best screenplay my prediction rachel getting married my alternate happy go lucky could it score here the class actual winner happy go lucky well i knew they d like happy go lucky just didn t know it would be to this extent i thought for sure rachel getting married would score with this group somewhere and this seemed like the most likely place but alas they really really love mike leigh so there you go best documentary my prediction trouble the water kill the man on wire sweep my alternate man on wire actual winner man on wire boring well anyway looking at the balloting scores wall e actually tied for 2nd with happy go lucky in best picture so i wasn t that far off rourke and ledger were also 2nd in their categories and viola davis was actually numerically tied with schygulla in supporting actress but since she was on fewer ballots she lost the tiebreaker cruz was in 3rd this has gotta be disappointing for rachel getting married and the wrestler neither of which got anywhere with this group i thought one or both of them would get a lot of love here but you never can tell always an interesting group that nsfc labels awards season 2008 posted by adam k 5 12 pm 0 comments friday january 02 2009 wow why didn t i watch this on new year s eve my family decided to go the traditional route so i got stuck with dick clark ryan seacrest and that hyperactive kate hudson wannabe but i bet they would ve watched cnn had they known kathy and anderson were on p s just come out already anderson it s time posted by adam k 2 28 pm 0 comments thursday december 18 2008 omg wall e just won yet another critics award chicago this makes 3 all from relatively major cities including l a one might even call it this year s critical favorite though slumdog and milk are certainly running close we ll have to see how the top ten lists go but so far it looks like wall e may be on top please please please let it be nominated for best picture posted by adam k 10 22 am 0 comments sag nominations quick thoughts doubt did extremely well like i thought 5 nominations including both supporting actress nods as well as ensemble this has to boost its best picture profile though i still doubt it ll make the cut in that race frost nixon managed an ensemble nod despite its being basically a duet so that indicates it has huge best picture support and slumdog made the ensemble cut even though it has no stars and is not really an actors piece so it of course is locked in for best picture as well milk bounced back with nods for the ensemble and for josh brolin though franco missed and is sadly out of the race for oscar the last nominee was benjamin button which solidified its own nomination for best pic as well ensemble list the curious case of benjamin button 3 noms doubt 5 noms frost nixon 2 noms milk 3 noms slumdog millionaire 2 noms no out of nowhere choices this year but still some major snubs big ouch for revolutionary road beyond winslet s year of kate citation it failed to get traction rachel getting married as i feared went by the wayside as well something worthy always does and finally the dark knight failed to lock in its best pic chances today which is what would ve happened if it d scored here in the actors minds as in the globes it s heath ledger s show only so it s anyone s guess as to whether the academy ll go for it even if it has the guilds which it will this could be the oscar lineup right here though the dark knight and or wall e still stand poised to replace something here most likely the nomination leader doubt i went 3 5 in my predictions thinking dark knight and rachel s ensembles would prove too enticing to ignore but alas the buzzy prestige best pic contenders ruled the day best actor richard jenkins frank langella sean penn brad pitt mickey rourke alright then penn rourke and langella are still locks but the surprise here is really brad pitt the actors clearly loved benjamin button the film and the character more than expected and consensus this season surprisingly seems to be that brad leo maybe people are finally getting behind brad with this prestige performance thinking it s his time and they d be right jenkins makes his play here for the final oscar spot and he could easily get it and yay for clint eastwood being snubbed again does this knock him down to 7th position is this the oscar list is leo out is brad in could both leo and brad get in i think that s possible we ll see i went 4 5 in my predictions like everyone else missing brad for leo best actress anne hathaway angelina jolie melissa leo meryl streep kate winslet interesting my leo melissa that is hunch was correct but it came at the expense of someone unexpected hawkins this reminds me of last year s linney for jolie switch at oscar time it s hard to believe hawkins is out of the oscar race having nearly swept the critics awards but who does she replace not streep not hathaway not winslet she could bump leo even after leo overtook her here or more likely i think she could bump jolie who i just don t think will get 1 votes on ballots to make the oscar shortlist or horror of horrors hawkins could miss she has missed both the bfca list and the sag list only making the cut at the globes in the comedy category that does not bode well so continue to rally critics apparently she needs it ftr i scored 4 5 here missing jolie for hawkins though i think my lineup could still be the one we see from oscar best supporting actor josh brolin robert downey jr philip seymour hoffman heath ledger dev patel ewww dev patel can t they at least reserve category fraud for truly exceptional performances you can have your gyllenhaal in brokeback and winslet in reader but dev patel really sigh this puts him right back in contention for the oscar nod surging him right ahead of james franco sigh though this reminds me a lot of the keisha castle hughes citation here that ultimately led to a lead nod from the academy no other groups have really been buying the fraud on this one and sag probably only did it because they re only allowed to vote for people in the category they re gunning for hopefully dev s votes will split at oscar time and he ll be left out but then who would replace him neither franco nor michael shannon have been doing particularly well despite both being in films with big campaigns and cruise is not happening so dev could easily slip in in any case the other four are pretty locked ftr i was 3 5 here not good for me best supporting actress amy adams penélope cruz viola davis taraji p henson kate winslet interesting my last minute amy adams prediction was a good call but swapping out taraji henson was not both made it so my the net effect was nil giving me a success rate of 4 5 the loser in all of this of course was rosemarie dewitt my one bad prediction rachel getting married has gotten pretty shafted all season beyond hathaway and the eponymous rachel has been doing no better so this appears to be a 6 woman race between adams cruz davis henson tomei winslet with dewitt falling into longshot spoiler status of those 6 i d take out adams first as i can t imagine her being 1 on many ballots above viola davis but she s done well so far so i dunno tomei or henson could also miss we ll see for the win the big question is of course where will they give it to kate or will they at all sag has given her a win before waaaay back in 1995 so they re not under the same pressure to honor her she s nominated twice this year but neither of her ensembles are in fact she s the only nominee from each of her films so it seems its not about the films it s all about her if doubt takes ensemble which i think it will then they may not need to give best actress to streep giving kate an opening there but i could also see her upsetting cruz who just doesn t seem to me like a sag winner for some reason could kate win both with enough people voting for her twice simply to cover themselves i don t think it s out of the question could she win neither that s not out of the question either it ll be very exciting labels awards season 2008 posted by adam k 9 10 am 1 comments last minute sag prediction changes i m switching out taraji p henson for amy adams who i think will benefit from massive doubt love among actors i m also seriously considering slumdog millionaire for best ensemble as it just seems too big at this point to be left out but the fact is i don t know what i d bump to give it a spot i still see button dark knight and rachel ahead of it though i fear that rachel would be the first to go i really hope it doesn t miss here since this is the award it most deserves to be up for but the actors have a strange way of missing truly great ensembles even from films on their radar juno junebug etc i hope that when they pop in the dvd to see anne hathaway do her breakthrough thing they notice how great everyone else is too and how well they work together we ll see posted by adam k 1 00 am 1 comments sunday december 14 2008 i love wanda sykes posted by adam k 5 55 pm 0 comments thursday december 11 2008 predictions predictions predictions here s how i m expecting the sag races to shape up best ensemble the curious case of benjamin button the dark knight doubt milk rachel getting married this is far from final but i think at least 4 of these 5 will be nominated which 4 is still unclear the only one i m totally confident in is milk globe snub or no it s the only best picture frontrunner that s being touted for its ensemble acting and has abundant stars button i think will show up too due to its combo of best picture frontrunner status and the mixture of established and rising stars doubt is a bit iffy as its best picture stock is falling but the ensemble cast is the film s main draw and with all four of them waking up to globe nods this morning i think it s safe to say they re in and could even win the dark knight is another film with lots of stars all doing good work that s also in the thick of the best pic race that leaves one spot open which i m hoping against hope will go to rachel getting married simply because it s so deserving they ve nominated quirky indies out of nowhere here before remember the station agent so i m thinking this truly great ensemble might have a chance this year frost nixon though looking good for a best pic nom is clearly a duet rather than an ensemble and i think that ll doom its chances here revolutionary road is certainly a threat but i think general mixed feelings toward the film combined with the fact that it seems to be registering only as the kate leo show will cause it to miss here but just barely slumdog millionaire could certainly show up as well but i think the fact that everyone in it is unknown and that even its most diehard fans wouldn t claim that it s an acting showcase will shut it out of this particular race and finally the wrestler could surface here but i think voters will think of it mostly as rourke s show and so it won t be able to slip ahead of any of the five titles above best actor leonardo dicaprio revolutionary road richard jenkins the visitor frank langella frost nixon sean penn milk mickey rourke the wrestler i have a lot of confidence in this lineup unless clint manages to rebound with this group unlikely if he couldn t get the globes to notice him this is probably the list i doubt the actors will go for brad since they usually prefer to recognize lesser known character actors like jenkins when they can instead of super famous stars best actress anne hathaway rachel getting married sally hawkins happy go lucky melissa leo frozen river meryl streep doubt kate winslet revolutionary road this is a tough one i have a strong feeling melissa leo will resurface here she s the kind of under the radar gem like jenkins that they love to throw a bone to most of the voters are unknown actors after all but kristin scott thomas globe nod indicates that she does have support and isn t going away it s either or for the 5th spot i think blanchett will have to sit this one out i d wager as will jolie best supporting actor josh brolin milk james franco milk philip seymour hoffman doubt heath ledger the dark knight michael shannon revolutionary road on this one i m really torn as i said i think rev road is registering mostly as the kate leo show and this is hurting shannon but he s also the kind of lesser known acclaimed actor that the sags love see jenkins melissa leo so i think he ll make it even if the film misses ensemble but i m less than confident i also think milk will rebound here big time with both its supporting contenders getting in fiennes i think will suffer from vote splitting and be left out bu...