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ewrites regional politics and concentrates attention on near term stability at the expense of the big global challenges the decisions by the trump administration to retreat from the commitments and frameworks of global climate action have created a leadership void that is felt most acutely not in washington or brussels but in the low lying islands of the pacific in the australian communities already contending with extreme fire seasons and more intense floods and cyclones and in every boardroom and cabinet room where 30 year infrastructure decisions are being made in the face of deepening uncertainty read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 10 august 2026 could four billion people die at 3 c by david spratt first published at safe climate australia the claim that four billion people could die in a 3 c warmer world has become a powerful climate narrative but what does the science actually support and where does evidence end and speculation begin the proposition that four billion people or more would be dead if and more likely when global warming reaches 3 degrees celsius c has gained some currency mainly due to the 4db four billion dead website and associated activities now that is half the current global population and on current warming trends of 0 3 0 35 c decade the world will hit 3 c around 50 years from now perhaps earlier in part because there is little prospect of a rapid decline in fossil fuel emissions so that s a mind blowing average of 80 million people a year dying due to climate impacts every year from now to 2075 is that realistic the number of greater than four billion dead at 3 c first appeared in a 2025 report on planetary insolvency finding our balance with nature published by the uk institute and faculty of actuaries ifoa and the university of exeter ing our balance with nature published by the uk institute and faculty of actuaries and the university of exeter read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 27 july 2026 climate disruption not china is the key security threat facing australia by david spratt download the submission climate disruption not china is the key security threat facing australia is the main message in the safe climate australia submission to the aukus public inquiry this is the text summary climate disruption presents australia s greatest long term security threat aukus risks over prioritising military competition over systemic climate risks climate impacts threaten food water infrastructure health and regional stability security spending should better reflect the scale and certainty of climate risks australia needs a climate first national security framework focused on resilience and prevention read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 14 july 2026 perfect recipe for food insecurity by neil greet first published at the canberra times the cost of living is at the centre of australians concern and a major political battleground but one of the biggest inflation threats is flying under the radar a food cost crisis brewing at the intersection of two current global events the first is the war on iran that has cut global fertiliser supply by a third and doubled prices in some cases the consequence being less planting of grain staples this year and lower yields over the next year australia s wheat harvest in 2025 26 is expected to be down by a quarter across asia it will also affect rice and other crop yields read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 04 june 2026 avoiding worse case climate warming is big news but is it true claims that climate scientists have abandoned their most dire scenario have been widely misunderstood while the highest emissions pathway is now considered unlikely evidence suggests the climate system may still be tracking toward dangerously high levels of warming by david spratt first published at pearls irritations figure 1 rcps and ssps occasionally climate science is big news on 26 may the new york times headlined why scientists retired the dire climate scenario used for over a decade a good story the australian true to form went with climate doomsday scenarios just got a major rewrite and in jeff bezos s washington post it was the climate apocalypse don t count on it there were a host of similar headlines climate deniers and donald trump used an old playbook to claim scientific fraud surprise but were called out with trump twisted a climate debate beyond recognition and factcheck trump s false claims about the ipcc and rcp8 5 climate scenario read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 25 may 2026 don t mention the climate by david spratt first published at pearls irritations acknowledgment rather than denial of a crisis s reality is the key to coping with it but the 2026 australian government budget is a continuation of the labor government s denial of the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions before the climate reaches a tipping point the 2026 budget speech was titled resilience and reform resilience a very fluid term favoured by political communicators these days was deployed 13 times but the word climate failed to appear even once this glaring omission reaffirms the government s reluctance seemingly intentional to discuss climate change risks as i have previously discussed in p i read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 27 april 2026 any sane foreign policy would put climate risks not china at centre stage by david spratt first published at pearls irritations australia s defence and foreign policy settings are focused on geopolitical rivalry while far greater systemic risks especially climate disruption receive little strategic attention blinded to the greater risks the albanese government and the security commentariat have spent four unrelenting years making the case that china is the biggest threat to australia s future defence and foreign policy encapsulated in the aukus agreement tie australia to a nation currently engaged in what the historian timothy snyder calls superpower suicide a systematic undoing of american power by americans in which fighting a war for no reason we can name losing it and covering our defeat with genocidal and apocalyptic propaganda had led to rapid and catastrophic decline as the result of specific choices in the last year read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 22 april 2026 energy security is now inseparable from national security australia has options but they re being neglected by adm chris barrie ian dunlop first published at the sydney morning herald camels flee a burning oil well during the first gulf war kuwait 1991 photo steve mccurry just as the war on iran dents oil production drives up petrol prices and ricochets around the global economy thursday s fire at the geelong oil refineries causes even more domestic pain the disturbing energy vista only heightens the need for a far faster transition to renewables and widespread electrification the fragility of fossil fuel supply lines and our reliance on them is now obvious yet the newly released defence strategy downplays the strategic consequences of australia s fossil fuel dependence the strategy fails to fully recognise how australia s expanding coal and gas exports are perpetuating a cycle of fossil fuel addiction undermining our long term security and claims to regional leadership read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 08 april 2026 has climate policy making gone completely off the rails by david spratt first published at pearls irritations has climate policy making gone right off the rails that question pops into my head with increasing frequency these days most recently when i glanced at a guardian headline daunting but doable europe urged to prepare for 3 c of global heating the european scientific advisory board on climate change has a new report strengthening resilience to climate change recommendations for an effective eu adaptation policy framework and the story quoted board member maarten van aalst saying that adapting to a hotter future was in part common sense and low hanging fruit it is a daunting task but at the same time quite a doable task it s not rocket science read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 31 march 2026 sustainable aviation qantas s climate policy is heading for a crash landing by mark carter rising fuel costs and disrupted flight paths a consequence of the unprovoked and illegal attack on iran by israel and the us are not the biggest risk to qantas s business its dependence on fossil fuel is the harsh reality qantas faces is that in less than five years it must cease flying completely if it is to stick to its stated aim of helping prevent 2ºc or more of global warming nothing confirms the level of risk associated with qantas s sustainable aviation claims more than this threat to its ongoing operation exposed in a new report from flight free australia brace for impact qantas s climate crash flightpath read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 25 march 2026 silence facilitates climate dis information and the government is complicit by david spratt a shorter version of this article was first published at pearls and irritations the us israel war on iran and another oil crisis has again highlighted the need for australia to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and electric transport and sustainable industrial processes and to phase out the coal and gas export industries at the same time anti renewable energy and climate change scepticism dis information campaigns have made inroads in australia in the face of a barrage of climate dis information silence from those who should be countering it constitutes an own goal a boost to the dis information campaign as the senate select committee inquiry on information integrity on climate change and energy approaches its final report questions must be asked about the australian government s response to climate dis information is it using its unparalleled media power to educate australians about accelerating climate change and the urgent need for a complete renewable energy transition read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 24 march 2026 fossil fuel dependence and climate disinformation are now australia s biggest threats power must be wrested back from big tech say former defence leaders download the report a former chief of the australian defence force admiral chris barrie retd has called for legislation to regulate and if necessary break up the digital tech monopolies that are now enabling an information war threatening australia s future and undermining its ability to respond to escalating climate disruption monopolies and duopolies can exercise dangerous market power and political power including in technology in the media and social media and in communications anti trust laws were first enacted in the usa in 1890 and resulted in companies like at t and standard oil being broken up adm barrie a member of the australian security leaders climate group was launching a new report the climate disinformation war how to fight back for australia s democracy and security this comes as the federal parliament s select committee on information integrity on climate change and energy is due to release its final report this week reflecting increasing attention on the role of disinformation in shaping australia s climate and energy policy read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 14 march 2026 former defence leaders say oil wars threaten our security and climate change deepens the danger by ian dunlop and david spratt first published at pearls irritations view the open letter in full page statements in the national media today nineteen australian security practitioners and former defence leaders have published an open letter on why australia s dependence on fossil fuels is a critical economic and security vulnerability published in the australian financial review and the sydney morning herald the letter s signatories include admiral chris barrie the former chief australian defence force air vice marshal john blackburn ao deputy chief royal australian air force retd cherl durrant the former defence director of preparedness mobilisation and brigadier michael bond csc bar australian army retd they say that protecting australians by accelerating the renewable energy rollout is now a security priority we call on the australian government to accelerate the transition to clean domestic energy rapidly expanding renewable energy including wind solar batteries hydro and renewable fuels produced in australia and electrifying our transport system with home grown energy will strengthen australia s security reduce exposure to global energy shocks and help limit the escalating risks driven by climate change major conflicts in ukraine and in the middle east including the suez crisis two arab israeli wars the iran iraq war the gulf war of 1991 and the 2003 invasion of iraq by the usa have all caused energy supply and economic shocks the consequences are rising food prices higher transport costs and potentially severe economic disruption today with the israel us iran conflict we face another oil shock possibly far worse than its predecessors read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 09 february 2026 authoritarianism is undermining climate action and time is running out climate emergency briefing impacts risks and key actions for australia in the age of authoritarianism is published today by the breakthrough national centre for climate restoration by david spratt first published at pearls irritations the global rise of authoritarianism is weakening climate governance just as warming accelerates and tipping points draw near this failure now poses a direct threat to our future authoritarianism is stalking nations and global institutions often allied with climate scepticism and denial this has weakened climate governance most notably in the united states in russia and the middle east oil and gas producers climate denial and delay and authoritarianism co mingle and climate barely rated a mention at davos this year read more email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest 18 december 2025 climate hot takes on 2025 by david spratt first published at pearls irritations climategenn podcast 2025 in climate review amoc overshoot emergency briefings with guest david spratt scientific evidence in 2025 showed global warming accelerating faster than expected while emissions continued to rise and climate policy lagged dangerously behind physical reality climate warming is a field of fast changing physical realities in many cases beyond scientific ...