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e past variations causing them rightly to ask why we should be confident about their ability to predict the future the challenge for the amoc community is either to reconcile the differences between climate models and observations or to better understand the reasons for deviation we believe that progress needs to be made in understanding why models do not reproduce past amoc variability and that this is the key to having confidence in the future evolution of this key climate variable they state as i pointed out in november so the models are not wrong they re just not fit for the purpose of simulating past and future climate change and thus informing climate policy precisely because they do not accurately simulate natural internal variability which is large over decadal and multidecadal reference periods compared to external forcing we ve been conned by bad science allied with political activism and corporate vested interests just four months later and we have a new amoc scare story based on just one model telling us that we re all going to freeze to death very suddenly hollywood style à la the day after tomorrow because the signs are that we are fast approaching an omg we re all going to die tipping point take it away mr guardianista journalist the circulation of the atlantic ocean is heading towards a tipping point that is bad news for the climate system and humanity a study has found the scientists behind the research said they were shocked at the forecast speed of collapse once the point is reached although they said it was not yet possible to predict how soon that would happen using computer models and past data the researchers developed an early warning indicator for the breakdown of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation amoc a vast system of ocean currents that is a key component in global climate regulation they found amoc is already on track towards an abrupt shift which has not happened for more than 10 000 years and would have dire implications for large parts of the world what surprised us was the rate at which tipping occurs said the paper s lead author rené van westen of utrecht university it will be devastating he said there was not yet enough data to say whether this would occur in the next year or in the coming century but when it happens the changes are irreversible on human timescales in the meantime the direction of travel is undoubtedly in an alarming direction we are moving towards it that is kind of scary van westen said we need to take climate change much more seriously fear porn on scientific authority you re meant to suck it up and start to behave not like a free range free thinking human being but like a net zero compliant automaton in order to avoid this catastrophe so let s take a look at what the actual paper says and whether or not it lives up to the guardian s hype and the hype of its lead author there is strong need for a more physics based observable and reliable early warning indicator that characterizes the amoc tipping point to develop such an early warning indicator we performed a targeted simulation to find an amoc tipping event in the community earth system model cesm version 1 0 5 this cesm version which has been used in the coupled model intercomparison project cmip phase 5 has horizontal resolutions of 1 for the ocean sea ice and 2 for the atmosphere land components see materials and methods we start from a statistical equilibrium solution of a preindustrial control simulation 16 and keep greenhouse gas and solar and aerosol forcings constant to preindustrial levels during the simulation this tells us immediately that the model simlation is a highly artificial one it keeps natural solar and aerosol volcanic emissions constant and even neglects to include ghg forcings so basically no external forcings on climate meaning no global warming the only variable is freshwater flux into the atlantic even so it took 6 months running on a mainframe computer to generate the results which was very expensive and not repeatable a quasi equilibrium approach 17 19 is followed by adding a slowly varying freshwater flux anomaly f h in the north atlantic over the region between latitudes 20 n and 50 n this freshwater flux anomaly is compensated over the rest of the domain as shown in the inset of fig 1a we linearly increased the freshwater flux forcing with a rate of 3 10 4 sv year 1 until model year 2200 where a maximum of f h 0 66 sv is reached such a simulation has not been conducted before with a complex global climate model gcm i e used in cmip5 and beyond as the cesm version used here because of the high computational costs and it cannot easily be repeated for a suite of different gcms a requirement of sound science is that it must be repeatable this model experiment is not under increasing freshwater forcing we find a gradual decrease fig 1a in the amoc strength see materials and methods natural variability dominates the amoc strength in the first 400 years however after model year 800 a clear negative trend appears because of the increasing freshwater forcing then after 1750 years of model integration we find an abrupt amoc collapse fig s1 a and b the amoc strength is about 10 sv in model year 1750 and decreases to 2 sv 100 years later model year 1850 and eventually becomes slightly negative after model year 2000 such a transient amoc response model years 1750 to 1850 is spectacular considering the slow change in the freshwater forcing i e f h 0 03 sv the characteristic meridional overturning circulation and associated northward heat transport in the atlantic ocean have decreased to nearly zero and by 75 at 26 n respectively after model year 2000 fig 1 b to d and fig s2a so the tipping point they found is 1750 years from now assuming a constant flux of fresh water into the ocean from ice melt that would be the year 3774 ad so not really the day after tomorrow then also this freshwater flux is not realistic given present day conditions even though it is modest by the standards of other freshwater flux model experiments which have been done to investigate amoc collapse it is still very high in the cesm simulation here amoc tipping occurs at relatively large values of the freshwater forcing this is due to biases in precipitation elsewhere in the models and mainly over the indian ocean 37 hence we needed to integrate the cesm to rather large values of the freshwater forcing 0 6 sv about a factor 80 times larger than the present day melt rate of the greenland ice sheet 55 to find the amoc tipping event the effect of the biases can be seen from the value of the amoc induced freshwater transport at 34 s f ovs which is positive at the start of the simulation when biases are corrected in the cesm it is expected that the amoc tipping is expected to occur at smaller values of the freshwater forcing the authors argue that they had to make the freshwater flux unrealistically high to account for biases in the climate models which estimate the freshwater transport at 34s to be positive whereas observational estimates generally tend to find it to be negative at present this is the equivalent of saying we put dodgy data into our models to compensate for the fact that the models don t simulate reality too well the claim in the guardian is this they found amoc is already on track towards an abrupt shift which has not happened for more than 10 000 years and would have dire implications for large parts of the world the basis of this claim is the identification of a signal in the southern hemisphere at the boundary of the atlantic which supposedly indicates whether amoc is stable or not this is the freshwater flux measured at 34s first proposed as an indicator of amoc stability by stefan rahmstorf in 1996 the authors say from idealized ocean climate models it has been suggested that the freshwater transport of the amoc at 34 s indicated by f ovs see materials and methods is an important indicator of amoc stability 29 33 the reason is that this quantity is a measure of the salt advection feedback strength thought crucial in amoc tipping this feedback describes the amplification of a freshwater perturbation in the north atlantic through a weakening of the amoc which leads to less northward salt transport and hence amplification of the initial freshwater perturbation 34 35 they explain again why this figure is initially positive in the model run because of well known biases in the models in the cesm results here fig 4a f ovs is positive at the beginning of the simulation which indicates that the amoc exports net salinity with respect to reference salinity of 35 g kg 1 out of the atlantic this is not in agreement with observations 36 37 which is a well known bias in cmip phase 3 38 phase 5 21 and phase 6 37 models in the cmip phase 6 cmip6 models this bias is mainly due to large biases compared to observations in the freshwater flux over the indian ocean 37 there are no direct observations of freshwater flux at 34s only estimates and reanalysis products models nevertheless they tend to point towards f ovs being negative note that there is a large variation in the trend between different products not all show a negative trend and the datasets are short hence i find this statement by the authors to be somewhat suspect the historical f ovs derived from reanalysis and assimilation products fig 6a are consistent in the sign of f ovs when comparing those to direct observations 36 42 the reanalysis product mean shows a robust and significant negative f ovs trend of 1 20 msv year 1 over the past 40 years fig 6b and its magnitude is close to the projected cmip6 mean trend of 1 06 msv year 1 2000 2100 37 under a high end climate change scenario this multi reanalysis mean negative trend suggests that the amoc is on course to tipping as a more negative f ovs is associated with a stronger salt advection feedback the freshwater flux at 34s may not even be the best indicator of amoc stability anyway here for instance the value of f ovs at 34 s is often considered an indicator for amoc bi stability with a negative value indicating a bistable amoc and positive values indicating a monostable amoc however no rigorous proof for it s relation with amoc bi stability exists also here in a recent freshwater hosing experiment in a climate model with an eddy permitting ocean component the change in the gyre freshwater transport across 33 s is larger than the amoc freshwater transport change this casts very strong doubt on the usefulness of this simple amoc stability criterion if a climate model uses large surface flux adjustments then these adjustments can interfere with the atmosphere ocean feedbacks and strongly change the amoc stability properties as usual the actual science is very complex with lots of unknowns and uncertainties but the media runs with a storyline which implies that it is definitive and as a result we should be afraid be very afraid and of course all the usual climate apocalypse nutters jump on the latest science immediately posted in uncategorized and tagged amoc climate climate change environment global warming on february 13 2024 by jaime jessop leave a comment at last met office have a named storm except they stole it from the danish meteorological institute the uk meteorological office are so desperate for a named storm this winter that they ve stolen one from the danes hilarious a low pressure system which will bring high winds and rain to parts of the uk has been named storm otto by the danish meteorological institute dmi storm otto will move east across the far north of the uk from the early hours of friday morning likely bringing gusts in excess of 75mph to some northern areas met office chief meteorologist andy page said storm otto will bring high winds and rain to the uk with some northern parts of scotland and the northeast of england likely to get the strongest gusts of wind possibly in excess of 75mph warnings have been issued and could be updated as storm otto develops stormotto has been named by the danish meteorological institute dmidk this is our first named storm of the season and is forecast to bring very strong winds to scotland on friday stay weatheraware ️ pic twitter com jotcsvxbh6 met office metoffice february 16 2023 hahaha it s going to get a bit windy in parts of northern scotland and northeast england better secure your garden furniture this never happened before we changed the climate even funnier the danes named it otto after friederike otto the world famous imperial college extreme weather attributor who hypes all kinds of bad weather as evidence of man made climate change too funny climate covid challenging unenlightenment science extreme weather attribution pseudoscience meet the imperial college scientist who peers into the dark center of climate disasters in 2016 i wrote about fredi otto et al s recently invented dark art of rapid extreme weather attribution here six years later she s still at it gazing into the dark center of extreme weather events using her pseudoscientific dark arts in order to do so read more 2 months ago 14 likes 10 comments jaime jessop the beeb will be jumping for joy climate covid challenging unenlightenment science bbc laments the lack of destructive and lethal storms this winter it s now february and the climate catastrophists at the bbc have not so far been able to report on any really damaging storms which have hit the uk all they ve had so far is a very frosty settled spell of weather back in december which even the climastrologists have a hard time linking to global warming but wet wild and windy storms are different read more 12 days ago 14 likes 17 comments jaime jessop save cross post co posted in uncategorized on february 16 2023 by jaime jessop leave a comment mission impossible attributing the pacific northwest heatwave to climate change before i get to the mission impossible i want to highlight another recent study which demonstrated just how extremely unlikely impossible the maximum daytime temperatures recorded during the north west pacific heatwave of 2021 were if one assumes that the sole primary driver of the conditions was climate change i e the long term warming trend observed since 1950 or even 1850 depending on which temperature datasets are used here is what that paper says here we identify and draw on the strong relationship between the climatological higher order statistics of temperature skewness and kurtosis and the magnitude of extreme events to quantify the likelihood of comparable events using a large climate model ensemble community earth system model version 2 large ensemble cesm2 le in general cesm2 can simulate temperature anomalies as extreme as those observed in 2021 but they are rare temperature anomalies that exceed 4 5σ occur with an approximate frequency of one in a hundred thousand years even using a very hot climate model with an extraordinarily high climate sensitivity of 5 3c these researchers could...