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effort the problems are immense for example in 1999 los angeles moved its data station 4 miles to an area outside the city that is lower in elevation and nearer the coast with cooler drier and less extreme conditions even when a location has not moved the rising temperatures may reflect the growth of a community or land use changes around it calibration is daunting for calibrating the instruments themselves an example is relating sea surface temperatures that were derived from a thermometer placed in a bucket of water pulled from the ocean in 1860 with a continuous stream of data taken from a ship s water inlet much deeper in the water in the 1960s data from drifting and moored buoys transmitted by satellite in the 1980s and with satellite data from the very top layer of the surface since the 1970s perhaps only time will really tell many skeptic scientists believe that the trend line turned in 1998 for the present cycle while many consensus scientists are quick to point out that we are still having temperatures above average and in turn the skeptics claim that there is no real way to compute a global average lastly the best data are from the usa according to noaa 2006 was the warmest year in u s records almost the same as 1936 the skeptics say that if only rural sites are used the temperature actually falls indicating that in the us and probably the world what has been measured is the growth of cities and the heat they absorb and generate there is no warming this warming is largely recovery from the little ice age the natural rate of increase of about 1 deg f 0 5 c since the lia 1500 1900 has not been removed from the ipcc estimations of temperature rise the co2 contribution is negligible or non existent because there is no credible way to compensate for the sharp cooling from 1940 to the 1970s in the face of the rapid growth of co2 nor the similar to present rise from 1920 to 1940 in the absence of rapid co2 growth see for example is the earth still recovering from the little ice age a possible cause of global warming by syun ichi akasofu 7 may 2007 another difficulty with accepting the temperature rise at face value is the evidence that the start of the use of thermometers in about 1850 comes at the same time as the emergence from the coldest period in 8 000 years the rate of warming is dangerous not so say the skeptics pointing out that the rate of warming from 1980 to 1998 has been seen before and for many parts of the earth such temperature changes are recurrent such as when the atlantic and pacific and enso el niño oscillations change state causing immediate massive changes in ocean environments of fish corals and marine mammals sensationalist press not counteracted the fact that antarctica is warming in the area nearest chile gets heralded but the ipcc science documents show that as a whole antarctica is stable flooding of coasts and cities attributed to warming is not countered by the ipcc even though its science document shows no discernible acceleration in the rate of rise a solid indicator of warming and necessary for prior sea level projections warming impacts many scientists in the consensus group believe that the ipcc estimates of temperature rise are accurate and the impact from these changes will be bad for the earth its ecosystems and its people other scientists even if accepting the ipcc forecasts believe that the earth was warmer before and with higher co2 levels and that these were among the most ecologically productive periods in terms of speciation and biomass this contrasts sharply with periods of glaciation the ice ages that come and go whether humans have any influence or not a case in point is my testimony which shows the paleo record tells us that corals were very expansive when the earth was warmer and co2 much higher whereas 3 other scientists testified that corals were in grave danger even now due to the high temperatures and acidification of the ocean caused by co2 an average wrong answer the ipcc reliance on emission scenarios and then presenting all the outputs of temperature rise and impacts as if they had somewhat equal probability leads to an average wrong answer and exaggerated impact assessments influence of the sun scientists affiliated with the consensus believe solar influences are not important to the recent warming and that are actually in the wrong direction see recent paper by lockwood and frohlich other scientists believe that the analysis is flawed and that the actual mechanisms through which the sun affects earth climate were not used in the analysis for example whitehouse solar mechanisms not used in climate models include several cycles of a few to hundreds of years when superimposed they have profound warming or cooling effects many solar scientists believe that most of the earth s temperature variation is explained by the sun s activity and our proximity to it scafetta and west these issues and many more are hotly debated on consensus and skeptic websites and blogs some representative consensus and skeptic sites with at least a reasonable amount of scientific basis are linked on the left navigation column one constant debate is the importance of undersea and terrestrial volcanoes in contributing co2 and the cooling effect of the ash cast into the sky the photo shows mount tungurahua active in july 2007 click on mount tungurahua for larger version and text source www oceansart us what are the views of the ipcc process by the skeptics very few scientists few scientists are actually involved in writing the materials perhaps a few dozen usually there is one real leader a chair or co chair and 2 or 3 titular co chairs that often are present to provide balance for the developing nations because of skill or language barriers they may not be greatly involved lead authors are usually involved in just one piece of the section or chapter these few people depending on the breadth of the chapter prepare the first and subsequent drafts and the executive summary that feeds into the spm long before the draft chapters have been through national reviews even here the co chairs decide which inputs are to be accepted or make recommendations that usually are sustained during plenary sessions yes thousands of scientists review the ipcc documents but usually only those parts that impinge on their own expertise which is usually quite narrow falsification of data with the advent of climategate hacked emails among the ipcc elite modelers and data gurus this is a new point of contention what many suspected for a long time when they couldn t replicate ipcc results and could not access the ipcc used data seems to be true at least to them the fallout could be immense one thing is certain we now know how the medieval warm period was surpressed to make the current warmth appear unprecedented and how the present stabilization or perhaps cooling has been hidden from phil jones to ray bradley mann xxxx mhughes xxxx subject diagram for wmo statement date tue 16 nov 1999 13 31 15 0000 cc k briffa xxx osborn xxxx dear ray mike and malcolm once tim s got a diagram here we ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow i ve just completed mike s nature trick this is how the medieval warmth was hidden of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years ie from 1981 onwards amd from 1961 for keith s to hide the present decline mike s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got april sept for nh land n of 20n the latter two are real for 1999 while the estimate for 1999 for nh combined is 0 44c wrt 61 90 the global estimate for 1999 with data through oct is 0 35c cf 0 57 for 1998 thanks for the comments ray cheers phil prof phil jones climatic research unit telephone xxxx school of environmental sciences fax xxxx university of east anglia also see our climate change and climategate positions climategate articles time magazine as climate summit nears skeptics gain traction washington post in e mails science of warming is hot debate bbc news climate e mail hack will impact on copenhagen summit wall street journal climategate science is dying science is on the credibility bubble science stolen e mails turn up heat on climate change rhetoric overstatement of risks and impacts we know from the paleo record that the earth routinely goes through climate swings greater than ipcc projects yet ipcc does not go far enough in correcting overstatements in its own documents and in those of the press there will be winners and losers but always we hear only of the losses balance is missing things will be different but not necessarily worse for example sea level rise has been happening since the end of the last ice age and there is little evidence of any significant acceleration yet most people believe that global warming will flood all coastal areas the areas may flood just as georges bank is now deep beneath the atlantic if this unusually long period in between ice ages continues and we see warmth as great as the last interglacial but flooding won t be caused by human derived warming although it may contribute another example is the great numbers of reports about antarctica warming yet the latest ipcc document shows that there is no evidence of any change in temperature or ice coverage too many people are excluded or their input not valued this includes astronomers and geologists some times the exclusion is real or just perceived over time this tends to make the inside group of ipcc scientists more uniform in their beliefs while adding to the anti ipcc consensus pressure is placed on people who disagree with the ipcc majority this is evidenced by the attempted removal of at least 4 us state climatologists whose governors have decided that conformance to the consensus view is required the policy statement of their association states that the natural variability in the climate system is very strong that we lack the ability to predict greater than about 10 years into the future and it is essential to collect data necessary to know if the climate is changing the process leading to the summary for policy makers spm is too political the skeptics have more trouble with the spm than the underlying reports it is not too affectionately called spam even though the scientists are present during finalization and have sufficient authority to make sure they can live with it many of the national delegations work to accomplish their policy objectives through the report some skeptics have responded by developing an independent spm based on the same underlying ipcc science documents but with very different interpretations an excellent report by the earth negotiations bulletin sheds light on the process it is recommended reading an excerpt follows from their report of the approval meeting of the ipcc spm for wg1 2007 participants discussed whether it would be clearer to state that warming of the climate system is unequivocal or evident participants agreed to state that warming is unequivocal canada with germany and switzerland suggested adding a reference to the accelerating trend of warming china new zealand and south africa supported by the coordinating lead authors opposed this given the possibility of decadal variability and the reference was not included in this section on text noting high decadal variability in arctic temperatures canada supported by norway suggested removing a specific reference to a warm period observed from 1925 to 1945 the coordinating lead authors explained that climate skeptics often point to this warm spell to question the ipcc for not acknowledging such warm spells participants agreed to keep the reference an excellent review of the issues and how the consensus has made a mistake is presented in an excellent article written by bob foster of sufficient quality to be included among the british briefing documents on her majesty s treasury website what does the consensus say about the skeptics on somebody s payroll many press articles have been written to say that scientists who disagree do so because they are being supported by oil companies or some other group with a stake in the outcome the counter argument is that most consensus scientists have funding derived from government or university sources that are directly based on public concern and fear it is most likely that nearly all scientists say and write that which they do because they believe it to be true money whether a federal grant or a corporate grant will flow to support an avenue of inquiry believed in the grantor s interest science is not bought in advance usually not mainstream scientists the skeptics are discredited often by allegations that they are not doing work that is germane to the climate change work or that they are inexperienced the countering allegation is that since one or more of any reviewers for the main scientific journals are likely to be members of the consensus any work showing the consensus view is wrong cannot be published in a primary journal one fact is that many of the mainline skeptics are full professors involved in climate research at major universities disproportionate press coverage consensus scientists and their allies decry all the attention the skeptics get when they are so few perhaps they are perceived to be so few because consensus people do not see them in the room and do not realize how numerous they are becoming conversely the skeptics have reached critical mass and not seeing any consensus members in their own midst see themselves as the true consensus of course the press loves a controversy it along with fear are two primary attributes that expand the audience if anyone believes the skeptics are some tiny minority try using your favorite search engine to search for climate skeptics the search will show dozens or hundreds of pro and con skeptic arguments and websites it will show some of the hype and hysteria on all sides of the climate arguments as well as legitimate scientific sites and discussion forums is global cooling bad the ipcc 2007 reports suggest there will be more losers than winners with warming imagine what they would say with global cooling the ipcc process includes many unlikely warming scenarios these worst case estimates also have associated impacts from benign to worst case thus we get the 5 worst impacts that have a 5 chance of happening a combined 0 25 likelihood equally discussed with benign changes that are reasonable to expect by the time summaries are written and press releases only the bad effects are presented this leads to a gross exaggeration of the problems global warming will actually have more winners then losers global cooling does not throughout the history of human life the earth s livability has always been better when the climate has been warmer than cooler human populations have expanded the most when the earth warmed and turned greener whether during the middle ages or during the last 2 decades whether it is a fish in the o...