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o things like say you have any one hour period in the next 24 hours to do the exam which to me feels like leaving a bucket of candy on your porch and a please take one sign on halloween one thing i did and would do again is offer an evening seating a lot of our students are in asia and business hours in the us are basically sleeping hours in china and korea i don t want students stuck overseas to have to take the exam at what to them is 3am likewise some americans have problems with family members using up all the bandwidth during the day or whatever this requires me to write a second set of questions in case the morning questions leak but i think it s worth it what i will not be repeating was my attempt to individually watermark and email exam prompts the idea was i d be able to trace who uploaded their exam to coursehero but it was a ton of work and didn t successfully distribute the exams it meant having students sign up in advance which meant dealing with those who didn t sign up in time it took about two or three minutes per student to set up which in a large lecture means an entire work day worst of all the emails didn t arrive on time they were all sent on time i scheduled them the night before but they didn t actually arrive in the students inboxes on time at least one was almost an hour late never doing that again term paper mistakes to avoid i decided to assign a term paper in fall quarter in part because i wanted to give less weight to timed exams for one of my lectures this was apply theories from lecture to current events in the field we are studying for the other it was apply theories from lecture to book a or book b my tas very reasonably said we can t grade that many papers and stay within a reasonable number of hours given that we have 75 students each one of my tas suggested we have students work in pairs and then there would be half as many papers to grade while i appreciate the ta s suggestion and would be delighted to work with this ta again it was a mistake to follow this particular suggestion having students work in pairs created a massive logistical burden of recording partners from those who paired themselves up then pairing off the unpaired in the class with two books this was further complicated because a i had to match people who wanted the same book and b i had to ensure an equal number of papers on each book so the tas wouldn t have to read multiple books and even then my work wasn t done because then i had to deal with my partner dropped the class or my partner isn t answering my emails or i got a new partner but then my old partner wants to work together again in the future i am never assigning group work again unless the project is intrinsically collaborative if it s too much grading for the tas to grade term papers i will either grade enough personally to absorb the excess hours or choose another assignment assigning group work cuts down the number of papers but it doesn t really reduce the total instructional hours i m also not saying choose one of these books unless it s not necessary for the grader to have read the book there is sufficient time for my tas to read multiple books or it s a seminar where i have already read all the books vpn vpn has proven to be a much bigger problem than usual this is weird since students always have to deal with vpn and it s never a totally intuitive technology but it turns out that it helps a lot when they can bring their laptop by the campus tech support lab after class or if all else fails just download the papers while they re on campus that s a big escape valve for the few percent of students who can t get vpn to work and that escape valve is clogged for remote teaching rather than deal with a few i can t get the readings emails a week i eventually just mirrored the papers on the site what better illustration could you have that piracy is a service problem not a price problem the students have already paid for the readings through their tuition but they can t access them because the vpn paywall is too hard to work reliably at scale and i suspect it s not just user error but the vpn server simply has downtime january 13 2021 at 2 37 pm gr 1 comment edudammerung my prediction for what s going to come for higher education and particularly the job market is that a repeat of 2008 2009 is the best case scenario as many of you will recall the 2008 09 academic year job market was surprisingly normal in part because the lines were approved before the crash then there was essentially no job market in the 2009 2010 academic year as private schools saw their endowments crater and public schools saw their funding slashed in response to state budget crises by the 2010 2011 academic year there was a more or less normal level of openings but there was a backlog of extremely talented postdocs or abds who delayed defending which meant that the market was extremely competitive in 2010 2011 and several years thereafter a repeat of this is the best case scenario for covid 19 but it will probably be worse the overall recession will be worse than 2008 in 2008 we realized houses in the desert a two hour drive from town weren t worth that much when gas went to 5 gallon this was a relatively small devaluation of underlying assets but it had huge effects throughout the financial system and then sovereign debt covid 19 means a much bigger real shock to the economy in the short run we are seeing large sectors of the economy either shut down entirely or running at fractional capacity for months until we keep r0 below 1 and for some industries more like a year or two not only is this a huge foregone amount of gdp but it will last long enough that many people and firms will go bankrupt and they won t bounce back the second quarantine is relaxed we also have large sectors of the economy that will need to be devalued especially anything having to do with travel i also expect to see a trend away from just in time inventory and globalization and towards economic autarky and a preference for slack over efficiency this too will hit gdp just as in the post 2008 era expect to see a weak stock market which will hit endowments and weak state budget finances which will hit publics we may even see straining of the fiscal capacity of the federal government which could mean less support for both tuition and research that s just economy to end tomorrow universities and colleges hardest hit though however there are particular reasons to think universities will be distinctly impacted universities are not the cruise ship industry but we re closer to it than you d think in the post 2008 era universities made up funding shortfalls by treating international students who as a rule pay full tuition as a profit center that is basically gone for the 2020 2021 academic year the optimistic scenario for covid 19 is that a couple months of quarantine drives down infections to the point that we can switch to test and trace like many asian countries life is 95 normal in taiwan and that could be us with enough masks thermometers tests and gps enabled cell phone apps however part of the way taiwan achieves relative normalcy is that on march 19 they banned nearly all foreigners from entering the country and even repatriated citizens are subject to two weeks of quarantine the is a crucial part of a test and trace regime as demonstrated by singapore which has a similar public health response to taiwan switching from test and trace to mass quarantine after new infections from abroad brought infections above the point where test and trace is feasible the us state department has already warned americans abroad to come home or we might not let you back travel restrictions are coming and will mean the end of international students for at least one academic year most likely we are looking at 2 to 3 years without a job market not just the one year with no market as happened post 2008 but as in the post 2008 job market there will be a backlog of talented fresh phds and so it will be absurdly competitive to get a job during the cultural revolution china suspended college entrance exams as a way to exclude applicants from bad class backgrounds e g grandpa was a landlord when the cultural revolution ended china reinstated exams and so there was a huge backlog of students who could now apply which made the matriculating class of 1977 extraordinarily competitive there will be no job market until the 2022 2023 academic year give or take and then for several years thereafter you ll need several articles or a book contract to get a flyout at podunk state ok so we have a few years of nothing and then a few years of an extremely competitive market but the phd inventory should clear by the 2026 2027 academic year right and this means that if you re in the fall 2020 entering graduate cohort or want to apply for the fall 2021 entering graduate cohort you should be fine right well no birth cohorts got appreciably smaller in 2008 which means by the time the covid 19 recession and its phd backlog clears there will be a demographic shock to demand for higher education my suggestion to all grad students is to emphasize methods so you ll be competitive on the industry market which will recover faster than the academic market that s right i really am telling you to learn to code april 8 2020 at 10 02 am gr 1 comment test by batches to save tests given the severe shortage of covid testing capacity creative approaches are needed to expand the effective testing capacity if the population base rate is relatively low it can be effective to pool samples and test by batches doing so would imply substantial rates of false positives since every member of a test batch would be presumptively sick but this would still allow three major use cases that will be crucial for relaxing quarantine without allowing the epidemic to go critical so long as testing capacity remains finite quickly clear from quarantine every member of a batch with negative results ration tests more effectively for individual diagnoses with either no loss or an identifiable loss in precision but at the expense of delay use random sampling to creating accurate tracking data with known confidence intervals for the population of the country as a whole or for metropolitan areas here is the outline of the algorithm assume that one has x people who were exposed to the virus the virus has an infectiousness rate of 1 x and you have only one test without testing every one of these x people must quarantine under these assumptions the expected number of actually infected people is 1 out of the x exposed or more precisely a random draw from a poisson distribution with a mean of one this means that 36 8 of the time nobody is infected 36 8 of the time one person is infected 18 4 of the time two are infected and 8 of the time three or more are infected with only one test only one individual can be tested and cleared but if you pool and test them as a batch over a third of the time you can clear the whole batch alternately suppose that you have two tests available for testing x people with an expected value of one infection divide the x exposed people into batch a and b then test each batch if nobody is infected both batches will clear if one person is infected one batch will clear and the other will not even if two people are infected there is a 50 chance they will both be in the same batch and thus the other batch will clear and if there are three there is a 12 5 chance they are all in the same batch etc thus with only two tests there is a 36 8 chance you can clear both batches and a 47 7 chance you can clear one of the two batches this is just an illustration based on the assumption that the overall pool has a single expected case the actual probabilities will vary depending on the population mean the lower the population mean or base rate the larger you can afford to make the size of the test batches and still gain useful information this most basic application of testing pooled samples is sufficient to understand the first use case to clear batches of people immediately use cases could be to clear groups of recently arrived international travelers or to weekly test medical personnel or first responders there would be substantial false positives but this is still preferable to a situation where we quarantine the entire population ideally though we want to get individual diagnoses which implies applying the test iteratively return to the previous example but suppose that we have access to x 2 2 tests we use the first two tests to divide the exposed pool into two test batches there is a 36 7 chance both batches test negative in which case no further action is necessary and we can save the remaining x 2 test kits the modal outcome though 47 7 is that one of the two test batches tests positive since we have x 2 test kits remaining and x 2 people in the positive batch we can now test each person in the positive batch individually and meanwhile release everyone in the negative batch from quarantine there is also a 15 5 chance that both batches test positive in which case the remaining x 2 test kits will prove inadequate but if we are repeating this procedure often enough we can borrow kits from the of cases where both batches test negative thus with testing capacity of approximately ½ the size of the suspected population to be tested we can test the entire suspected population a batch test individual test protocol will slow down testing as some people will need to be tested twice though their samples only collected once but allow us to greatly economize on testing capacity finally we can use pooled batches to monitor population level infection rates as an indication of when we can ratchet up or ratchet down social distancing without diverting too many tests from clinical or customs applications each batch will either test positive or negative and so the survey will only show whether at least one person in the batch was positive but not how many for instance suppose one collects a thousand nasal swabs from a particular city and divides them into a hundred batches of ten each and then finds that only two of these hundred batches test positive this is equivalent to 98 rate of batches having exactly zero infected test subjects even though the test batch data are dichotomous one can infer the mean of a poisson just from the number of zeroes and so this corresponds to a population mean of about 2 although this sounds equivalent to simply testing individuals the two numbers can diverge considerably for instance if half the batches test positive this implies a population base rate of 70 update on twitter rich davis notes that large batches risk increasing false negatives this is a crucial empirical question i lack the bench science knowledge to provide estimates but experts would need to provide empirical estimates before this system were implemented march 18 2020 at 3 01 pm gr drop 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