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rade to make their way into urban settlements all these dramatic changes increase the potential spread of infection are spillover events more common now than 50 years ago yes ecohealth alliance an ngo and others looked at all reported outbreaks since 1940 they came to a fairly solid conclusion that we re looking at an elevation of spillover events two to three times more than what we saw 40 years earlier that continues to increase driven by the huge increase in the human population and our expansion into wildlife areas the single biggest predictor of spillover events is land use change more land going to agriculture and more specifically to livestock production is there something specific about a virus that makes it zoonotic you can argue viruses aren t living organisms they re sheets of proteins encapsulating some dna or rna beyond that they have no machinery to be able to live on their own they re looking for an ecosystem that has all of the other cellular machinery essential for replication they can t live outside another animal population they need that animal to replicate and we re just one more animal we think of ourselves as something special but viruses are infecting us with exactly the same purpose they infect a bat or a civet cat viruses live on a delicate balance don t they they have to be able to thrive without killing their host right the ones that kill off their host quickly will disappear with the sars virus it s no surprise that killing 10 percent of its host it wasn t able to establish itself as a pandemic virus on this planet are there any signs that this coronavirus will kill itself this one has a lower pathogenicity the lower its virulence the more likely it ll become part of an endemic part of a seasonal event that s one of the big things that s going to be a worry if it does go quiet over the summer months then the question s going to be is it still infecting people we could be walking around in the middle of summer with influenza viruses but they re not active they ve just gone quiet when the right ecology comes into play it starts getting cold and damp then it starts replicating like crazy if it s able to park itself and not kill its host over the summer months then we ve got a virus that has all the telltale signatures of establishing itself as part of our normative landscape much to our detriment do you think the current outbreak was inevitable oh sure it was predictable it s like if you had no traffic laws and were constantly finding pedestrians getting whacked by cars as they crossed the street is that surprising no all you need to do is to better manage how we set up crosswalks how we establish traffic rules and regulations we re not doing that we re not establishing the kind of safe practices that will minimize the opportunity for spillover if we better understood where these viruses are circulating and understood that ecology we would have the potential to disrupt and minimize the risk of spillover why aren t we governments and policymakers doing that first this is an expanding problem driven by unprecedented population change it s only in the last 100 years that we ve begun adding people at a rate that s causing this incredible disruption of the larger ecosystem if you and i were having this discussion 100 years ago there were 6 billion fewer people on this planet it took us the better part of our total existence of the species 300 000 years before we hit the 1 billion mark but in 100 years we ve added 6 billion people and we ll add another 4 to 5 billion before the end of this century second governments and society by and large are governed by inertia we don t change and adapt and evolve very quickly and we re barely cognizant as a global society that the world we re living in today is fundamentally different than the world our species has ever lived in you know that old saw that if you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water it will leap out but if you take that same frog and put it in a pot of ambient water and slowly crank up the temperature it will stay in that water and boil to death it loses perspective on the changing environment around it we re that frog in the ambient water we re oblivious to the conditions that have enabled zoonotic viruses to become integrated into us what first really opened your eyes to the scale of the spillover problem you mean my saul on the road to damascus moment exactly it was avian influenza in the 2000s what you saw with avian influenza was a direct consequence of how much poultry was being produced to feed people if you look at china today it produces something on the order of 15 to 20 billion poultry per year but if you went back and you looked at the data from the 1960s you see that at best only a few hundred million poultry were under production when you look in bangladesh vietnam and elsewhere in asia and indonesia you see that the amount of poultry that was being produced 50 years ago was orders of magnitude less than poultry being produced today that s a consequence of more people and more purchasing power one of the things we know about household purchasing power is that when you have disposable income in your hands you re going to move from a root or grain based diet and try to get animal protein and that s what happened one statistic that jumps out of what you wrote in science is there are 1 67 million viruses on earth and an estimated 631 000 to 827 000 have the capacity to infect people that s pretty frightening no on one level it is pretty frightening but on another level the potential to infect doesn t necessarily correlate with illness and death some viruses may not have any consequence at all and some may be involved in enhancing our own biology they could become part of our microbiome it s nothing new in the course of evolution we have to be open to the idea that viruses aren t simply our enemies that they may have an important and positive role to play for us we found that out about bacteria at the same time we have to keep our eyes open and be cautious about the pharmaceuticals we take if we re taking broad spectrum antivirals they could be opening up other complications how would you describe the general attitude of the united states government toward the threat of zoonotic diseases it s not just the u s government but governments at large and the private sector we don t invest in risk talking about zoonotic diseases is different than talking about tuberculosis or malaria those are tangible they are clear and present problems zoonotic diseases are an emerging problem but we as a society don t invest in things that are not kicking our door down the coronavirus is kicking our door down now don t you think yes it s got everyone s attention but this coronavirus will fall off the headlines and when it does you will see a contraction in the kind of investments that are made in it we have war budgets and then no monies during peacetime so part of the challenge it s a social engineering exercise is getting lawmakers and investors to invest in risk that s really difficult the fact that your predict program was not refunded has become a political rallying point against president trump who has shown an ignorance of science do you think there s a connection between the end of predict and what has happened with the coronavirus no i don t think so predict was a beautiful project it was scientifically well executed it was forward leaning but its scale was small it discovered slightly more than 2 000 viruses if you re going to have a public health impact finding 2 000 viruses out of a pool of 600 000 over 10 years isn t going to transform your ability to minimize public health risk and predict didn t really navigate the second step in a critical equation turning science into policy we didn t design it for that purpose also even an annual budget of 20 million is not sufficient you d need about 100 million a year to carry out the kind of global program that would give us evidence to transform how we think about viral risk and how we should prepare for it that s what my new global virome project aims to do what worries you about this coronavirus there s the obvious stuff that s worrying everyone but there are things not being talked about those are the things that worry me the most this is a global event it is going to hit every community everywhere in the world and the impact will not be equally distributed because there are parts of the world that have health care systems that are far more fragile than ours or china s or europe s we know that when fragile healthcare systems have extraordinary new demands put on them there s an enormous risk those health systems will collapse specifically in the africa region and regions where there s civil disorder or war in 2014 when the ebola virus swept across the three countries of west africa we saw that one of the immediate consequences of the virus was to essentially shut down health service delivery health workers became exposed sickened and fearful for five months you did not have health services that were tending to people s normative healthcare pregnant women didn t have access to trained birth attendants kids didn t have access to anti malarials immunizations didn t go on you had an undocumented population of people whose lives were compromised because they couldn t get routine health services my fear is this will likely play itself out again if the coronavirus continues to be as significant as it appears to be we re going to see health systems get overloaded and not be capable of responding to both the virus and normative health issues no one in government seems to be talking about this in 2005 during the avian influenza george w bush was on the phone routinely with leaders around the world about how to coordinate a global response barack obama did the same in 2009 for the second h1n1 pandemic and in 2014 for the ebola epidemic you saw presidential leadership step up and act as a catalyst for forging a global way forward for a global problem it has been absolute silence in this white house i think the only reason the white house is even paying any lip service to this is because the stock market has gone into a free fall so they re trying to figure out what are the words they need to say to placate the stock market why do you think there s been silence in this white house because the trump administration is only interested in america first populism here and across europe and elsewhere has fragmented the global networks which had been so instrumental in being able to bring together a global approach to problems like this i ve not seen any reports coming out of the white house that showed that as china was struggling to bring the virus under control our president reached out to president xi to talk about how to coordinate action i m stunned by the absolute absence of global dialogue for what is a global event in europe right now you would never believe that there was a european union from where i sit it looks like every country is making this up as they go along italy isn t coordinating with brussels brussels isn t coordinating with germany there s no coherent regional approach to this problem in europe even though they have a platform for doing it so what will it take to make people aware of the global threat of zoonotic diseases there s nothing like a serial assault to heighten your awareness and that s what we re looking at we re on a cycle of about every three years of getting something like this and each time that happens there s more awareness that these investments need to be made and sustained the problem is getting these monies as part of the annual regular non emergency funding there s been exemplary sharing of data among scientists and geneticists don t you think yes but think of the syllogism from socrates right thinking leads to right action we know that s not the case your thoughts can be absolutely right on but your practices can be completely divergent what science allows us to do is understand with greater granularity what s at risk science will give us insight but we have to translate that insight into a sustained valuation of risk and move that forward how ideally should we move forward these viruses inherently have the ability to mutate what we re looking at today isn t necessarily what we ll be looking at in a few months it could become more deadly or it could attenuate and disappear like the common cold the big issue is are we tracking that do we have enough data and transparency and the availability of samples what s showing up in iran what s showing up in israel what s showing up in italy what s showing up in the united states is there enough open transparency in real time that allows us to keep our finger on the pulse i m an internationalist figure out how to care for our people pay attention to communities around the world that need assistance we re all part of the same ecosystem this is a global issue we either prepare for it and respond to it in the context of a global lens or we don t if our preparations and responses are country centric we re in for some serious trouble _______________________ the truly frightening aspect of this very predictable and obvious interview is that its underlying warning gets so little attention the uncontrolled increase in world population with the attendant full bore exploitation of eco systems to feed it i ve been saying for 40 years that humankind s rabid expansion and accompanying devastation of the environment will have both obvious grave consequences as well as new dangers that become more revealed over time viruses are opportunistic and have time and numbers on their side we do not have the resources to address the speed and variety of mutating pathogens which will be spawned by crowding and by our interaction with other creatures in the biosphere they the bugs hold several trump cards time and numbers and a virtually unlimited adaptability in the end the only way we can help ourselves is to drastically reduce world population and reestablish some of the provincial separation more typical of our previous history on the planet growth of population and growth of the pathogens which are the outriders of civilization go hand in hand vaccines won t solve this problem they are temporary measures at best and don t solve the basic causation there must be fewer people less travel and less interaction with wild and domestic nimals especially mammals there are no other solutions we must curtail reproduction and acknowledge the harm that excess population causes birth is not sacred creation of new members is an integral factor of the unfolding drama of our place in the ecosystem we ve completely overshot the natural limits and this will result in natural probably catastrophic readjustments of our numbers to enforce the balance we ve upset the more excess we create the more will be sacrificed over time more babies more victims very simple math m...