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ar future russia will significantly reduce its dependence on gas transit through belarus after the launch of the nord stream and south stream this will produce a situation of non contradiction between the strategic interests of russian foreign policy and the interests of russian oil and gas business therefore we can not exclude that russia which has a much greater influence on the situation in belarus will be collectively appointed to resolve issues with aliaksandr lukashenka this can create an objective threat to the economic and political independence of belarus from its eastern neighbour anyway the banal and the obviously correct idea that belarus should build partnership with both russia and the european union is becoming less and less utopian and even more urgent all concerned parties are interested in belarus ceasing to play a destructive role and joining the pan european cooperation the belarusian society is interested in this more than anyone else the current leadership of belarus seems unable to lead the country in the appropriate direction leaving it outside of the regional context largely isolated from the eu and in a permanent conflict with russia there is a strong demand for a different foreign policy of belarus but as of now there is virtually no prospect of the democratic opposition demoralised and weakened by 15 years of political repressions coming to power in these circumstances the appearance of a reformist clan within the ranks of the current nomenklatura is a matter of time a different question is whether the current president of belarus will have time to realize it and to align to this situation http n europe eu en columns 2010 10 25 kamen_u_botse read more gepostet von ac bei 12 45 am 26 kommentare labels belarus eu belarus russia may 7 2010 ukraine becomes more important as a factor in belarusian russian relations in the last months ukraine has significantly increased its importance in the european part of the cis the new president viktor yanukovych enjoys a honeymoon with russia ukrainian russian cooperation has started booming after previous president viktor yushchenko had left office ukraine and russia have agreed on lower gas prices for ukraine 1 on the russian black sea fleet staying based in ukraine till 2042 2 vladimir putin has even made a sensation by speaking of a possible merger of russia s gazprom and ukraine s naftogaz 3 added to this there come smaller initiatives to establish cooperation or to sell relevant ukrainian assets to russians in nuclear power shipbuilding 4 aviation construction 5 power generation and supply 6 at the same time since the times of president yushchenko ukraine is an important partner for the largely isolated belarus ukraine remains one of the very few european countries having official political contacts with the authoritarian belarusian government and the contacts have only intensified with yanukovych becoming president ukraine has recently become the transit country for the important venezuelan oil supplies 7 to belarus in april the belarusian parliament has finally ratified the border treaty with ukraine 8 which has been the key issue of belarusian ukrainian relations since the collapse of the ussr relations between belarus and russia are currently in a crisis since russia has imposed duties on oil supplied to belarus this came despite establishing a customs union of russia belarus and kazakhstan at the very same time the disappointment with absence of progress in the russian belarusian integration have led to russia unilaterally transforming the relations with belarus into a more pragmatic and market based form ukraine could threat belarus as a new strategic ally for russia in europe for it would be psychologically easier for russia to impose a hard line on belarus when it isn t the only faithful satellite on the european continent on the other hand ukraine could potentially act as intermediary between the two in any case ukraine seems to become a more important actor not only in belarus relations with the eu but also in belarusian russian relations http belarusdigest com 2010 05 05 ukraine becomes more important as a factor in belarusian russian relations read more gepostet von ac bei 1 49 am 1 kommentare labels belarus russia ukraine yanukovych january 27 2010 nothing personal just business my commentary on the russian belarusian oil duties dispute for novaja eŭropa on line magazine let s admit belarusian authorities have no effective arguments in the current oil dispute with russia therefore we must accept the fact that they will loose this fight sooner or later in close future oil will become expensive the belarusian economy will face increasing difficulties and a whole new stage of relations with russia will come nothing surprising we were going towards this all the past fifteen years nothing to answer with note russia proposes to continue to charge no export duties for oil supplied for internal belarusian needs the new duties will only affect the bigger portion of the oil supply which enables the belarusian state oil refineries to gain excess profits thus it will first strike the rent part of the belarusian economy which rather benefits from artificial privileges granted by russia instead of creating a product competitive on the market some belarusian journalists support the official belarus position on the reasonable ground that a customs union which our countries seem to be building together with kazakhstan by definition means removal of customs barriers and not their introduction nevertheless the full terms of the customs union treaty have not yet been published in any case it would be strange to see belarusian authorities talking of the implementation of signed agreements as long as they themselves are responsible for actual sabotage of so many previously signed agreements of all those treaties on a common currency with russia and on integration with it in unions and a union state fundamentally moscow has the stronger arguments in the dispute belarus unfortunately has nothing to oppose russia s pressure with in late 2009 russia launched the first string of the eastern oil pipeline espo which runs from russia to china the construction of the pipeline will be completed in 2014 russians have diversified markets for their oil so its price for belarus and western europe will now only grow why didn t belarus in turn diversify its sources of energy the cursing miracle whatever the result of the russian belarusian oil war lessons for both sides were evident before and will be stressed again in a comment to the new year s greetings by opposition leader aliaksandr milinkievič on the website of the newspaper naša niva one reader wrote that he could not imagine this politician holding tough negotiations with the russians on gas prices but as a matter of fact tough negotiations with russian monopolists shouldn t have become a new year tradition for belarus at all latvia poland or the republic of lithuania do not conduct annual dramatic negotiations with russia on oil and gas as they have no preferences and pay the market price the czech republic has even built a gas pipeline from germany to provide access to norwegian gas to the contrary the strategy of the belarusian regime in the last decade has been the exploitation of russian post imperial phobias and the struggle for the preservation of politically motivated preferences in regards of oil and gas supplies sooner or later it had to end playing manipulatory games with the kremlin is neither perspective nor moral even though the game has so far been successful for belarus relations between our two countries should be market based nothing personal just business politicians make reforms only when the absense of reforms threatens the stability in the country more than the changes another new year s oil crisis has once again shown that the reforms had to begin a long time ago and that the so called belarusian economic miracle of the recent years was in fact a curse for the country belarusian authorities have had a major source of cash but the economy could remain unreformed and non upgraded now the cash source disappears but market reforms in belarus according to belarusian businesspeople still haven t got the proper quality finally the independence of belarus means market based relations with russia plus the diversification of energy sources plus market reforms in the country rebooting relations the news about belarus intention to cut russian electricity transit to the kaliningrad region could only have brought you a sad sarcastic smile the verbal everlasting brotherhood of russia and belarus has actually turned into open hostility it is noteworthy that belarusian authorities have begun to threaten russia with leaving the just created customs union almost since the very beginning of this conflict for russia the dispute must therefore be another demonstration that any integration initiative can become an arms against russia in the hands of official minsk the belarusian regime can use every opportunity to accuse the kremlin of sabotage of the brotherly integration therefore both belarus and russia need a rigorous audit and possibly termination of the empty unions not only is the pathos of the belarusian russian integration untrue it also discredits the very idea of any constructive relations between our countries for decades ahead the hangover from the long standing pseudo integration extravaganza will for a long time spoil the athmosphere of belarusian russian contacts constructive relations with the largest neighbor are absolutely necessary to belarus but they apparently will have to start from scratch the time for it is coming by alexander čajčyc read original story read more gepostet von ac bei 1 59 am 5 kommentare labels belarus russia january 7 2010 2000s for democracy in belarus a decade of disappointment january 1 2010 will not be just the beginning of a new year but the beginning of a new calendar decade it is a formal and conventional event but that s the way our perception is constructed it is easier for us to view history in decades swinging sixties greedy eighties noxious nineties the 2000s or noughties will be a separate segment in systematized history of mankind for belarus it was a decade of dictatorship the first full calendar decade under the unlimited authoritarian power of aliaksandr lukašenka we have entered 2000 under the red green flag of the lukašenka regime and leave 2009 with it still over our heads in the 1990s the key year for belarus was 1996 when after the infamous referendum belarus turned into a country where the whole power is concentrated in the hands of one man 2006 with its tragic and disgraceful defeat of the opposition at the presidential elections has become a landmark year in the 2000s the lesson we should learn from these years is that 2016 is either unlikely to become the year of belarus liberation from dictatorship in 2000 that seems so recent one might have thought that lukašenka is there for not a long time a year or two or three and belarus will at last be free ukraine s orange revolution in 2004 has spread much hope that was not destined to turn into reality the noughties have been a decade of disappointment for belarus a decade which has completely turned belarus into a very special country on the european continent thirteen years have passed since the coup d état of 1996 during this time a whole new generation of belarusians has grown up another generation of people with soviet mentality even though it s been almost twenty years since the soviet union itself doesn t exist any more we may remind ourselves of 1957 thirteen years after the nazi occupation of belarus has been replaced back by soviet occupation by that time the anti soviet partisan movement in belarus and neighbouring soviet republics has almost completely vanished perhaps this was not least because the society had realized that the soviets came to stay the same can be said about today s belarus with its tired demoralized and split opposition with the fact that belarusians have mainly concentrated on consumption and primitive physical survival so that even the economic crisis does not initiate political protest in 1999 there could still be doubts but the noughties have proven one thing to us belarus might have gained juridical independence simply following the trend set by baltic countries and ukraine who had really struggled for it however we couldn t have got democracy the same way a whole range of specifically belarusian problems came into play weak national self identification of the people lack of political culture and absence of national elite the unfinished process of formation of the belarusian nation as such all the dark legacy of the soviet age which might not be so noticeable to an outside observer has realized its potential in the 1990s and became institutionalized in the 2000s belarus enters 2010 as a very specific european country a political system that rather resembles the relationship of a feudal and his serfs an archaic economy where the government has woken up with reforms twenty years after liberation of the socialist camp and where it is not clear if there is still something to be reformed a nation that missed the train of 20th century s romantic nationalisms and represents a mechanistic community of pragmatic and indifferent people without native language and historical memory any difference is a potential advantage belarus may be able to transform its difference into an advantage to realize its potential as a land untouched by investors in the middle of europe or as a cradle for a post nationalistic pluralistic traditionalism otherwise this potential will be spent in vain with sad consequences for the country there is no third option and there s not much time left till we find out the answer it is of course necessary to hope for the better but it may be far more useful to be prepared for the worst http belarusdigest com 2009 12 30 2000s for democracy in belarus a decade of disappointment read more gepostet von ac bei 4 09 am 1 kommentare labels belarus democracy history december 15 2009 the russian way of being free my article for novaja europa about freedom and russian mentality the severity of russian laws is balanced by their non obligatory execution mikhail saltykov shchedrin is russia doomed to be authoritarian in order to answer this question we must try to analyze both the russian mentality and the political history of the country do not mix politics and mentality a common place is the assertion that authoritarianism is a necessary part of russian mentality unlike that of other european nations thus the current dire situation regarding democracy and human rights in belarus is often attributed to the fact that the belarusian lands have been occupied by russia for over two hundred years during this time it is assumed oriental authoritarian mentality and manners hav...