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decision desk hq substack subscribe sign in home podcast notes the bellwether polling memo polling averages about 44 29 episode 40 what young people really think about socialism with rachel janfaza of the up and up young americans increasingly favorable attitude toward socialism isn t all about ideology 14 hrs ago geoffrey skelley and rachel janfaza 6 democrats recover their generic ballot edge republicans had narrowed the gap but democrats again lead by 6 percentage points 22 hrs ago decision desk hq 4 1 what happened last night crowley stuns hong in unlikely loss for the left in wisconsin reviewing the august 11 primary results in wisconsin minnesota south carolina connecticut alabama and vermont aug 12 geoffrey skelley 30 1 wisconsin minnesota more livestream live coverage of the aug 11 primary elections in wisconsin minnesota connecticut south carolina alabama and vermont aug 11 decision desk hq 26 1 ️ will the left make more gains in wisconsin and minnesota previewing 9 primaries to watch on aug 11 in wisconsin minnesota south carolina connecticut and alabama aug 10 geoffrey skelley 14 4 3 decidedly sharp insights into electoral politics subscribe to get them in your inbox subscribe recent posts view all florida may be a republican redoubt on the 2026 senate map republican sen ashley moody holds a notable edge over likely democratic nominee alex vindman in decision desk hq s polling average aug 9 decision desk hq 5 1 1 07 08 episode 39 which factions are winning primaries with fiftyplusone s primary project what kind of success are president trump progressive organizations pro israel groups and others finding as they try to pull the parties in their aug 7 geoffrey skelley 16 1 4 what happened l̴a̴s̴t̴ ̴n̴i̴g̴h̴t̴ this week el sayed defeats stevens in michigan squeaker a look at the august 4 primary results in michigan missouri kansas virginia and washington plus the august 6 primary in tennessee aug 7 geoffrey skelley 11 4 1 michigan missouri more livestream live coverage of michigan s u s senate primary and other contests from the five states voting on august 4 aug 4 decision desk hq 25 ️ michigan more mega primary preview a look at the clash between el sayed and stevens plus other pivotal primaries happening on aug 4 across michigan missouri kansas virginia and aug 3 geoffrey skelley 11 2 2 55 49 episode 38 our forecast shows a tight race for congress decision desk hq s new 2026 midterm forecast finds democrats slightly favored in the house republicans narrowly favored in the senate a sizable jul 31 geoffrey skelley 7 4 james talarico is polling better than beto o rourke did in 2018 the democratic senate nominee in texas has actually led in many polls something o rourke hardly ever did in his race against sen ted cruz jul 30 decision desk hq 20 2 digging into the democrats proposed 2028 presidential primary calendar initial thoughts on the revised state by state schedule approved by the democratic national committee on july 24 jul 27 geoffrey skelley 20 1 3 could whitmer s endorsement boost stevens in michigan s senate race michigan s governor made a late endorsement of rep haley stevens over progressive abdul el sayed ahead of michigan s aug 4 democratic primary jul 24 decision desk hq 2 1 1 00 08 episode 37 modern campaign ads with nick everhart of content creative media medium buying how does campaign ad creation and placement work and how has all this changed in our increasingly digital world jul 23 geoffrey skelley 5 what happened last night arizona picks its nominees for competitive gubernatorial and congressional races a look at the july 21 primary results in arizona jul 22 geoffrey skelley 24 3 arizona primaries livestream live coverage of arizona s july 21 primaries including the swing state s gubernatorial contest and three competitive primaries for the u s house jul 22 decision desk hq 26 see all top posts one way charlie kirk s assassination could affect the 2026 midterms sep 22 2025 geoffrey skelley 6 1 1 democrats and republicans both have reasons to feel optimistic about 2026 aug 20 2025 geoffrey skelley 14 8 4 can anything stop zohran mamdani aug 25 2025 geoffrey skelley 9 2 episode 3 jumping into jersey with steve kornacki oct 23 2025 geoffrey skelley 9 1 1 the 2026 house retirement party jan 5 geoffrey skelley 7 newsletters the bellwether ddhq chief elections analyst geoffrey skelley s newsletter for all things elections polls trends votes prediction markets and more polling memo decision desk hq s weekly polling memo keeps you updated on where things stand decision desk hq home to decision desk hq s analysis of u s elections and politics led by the bellwether newsletter subscribe recommendations so what chris cillizza wake up to politics gabe fleisher the downballot david nir strength in numbers g elliott morris 2026 decision desk hq privacy terms collection notice start your substack get the app substack is the home for great culture this site requires javascript to run 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