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wth nature 412 543 545 lutz wolfgang brian o neill and sergei scherbov 2003 europe s population at a turning point science vol 299 march 1191 1192 lutz wolfgang and vegard skirbekk 2005 policies addressing the tempo effect in low fertility countries population and development review 31 4 699 720 mcdonald peter 2000 gender equity in theories of fertility transition population and development review 26 3 427 439 mcdonald peter 2002 sustaining fertility through public policy the range of options population english edition vol 57 3 417 446 mcdonald peter 2006 low fertility and the state the efficacy of policy population and development review 32 3 485 510 mcneill j r 2006 population and the natural environment trends and challenges in paul demeny and geoffrey mcnicoll eds the political economy of global population change 1950 2050 a supplement to vol 32 2006 of population and development review new york population council 183 201 newson lesley tom postmes s e g lea and paul webley 2005 why are modern families small toward an evolutionary and cultural explanation for the demographic transition personality and social psychology review 9 360 375 notestein frank w 1945 population the long view in t w schultz ed food for the world chicago chicago university press 37 57 notestein frank w 1983 population growth and economic development 1964 population and development review 9 2 345 360 reher david s 1995 wasted investments some economic implications of childhood mortality patterns population studies 49 3 519 536 reher david s 2004 the demographic transition revisited as a global process population space and place 10 19 41 reher david s and fernando gonzalez quinones 2003 do parents really matter child health and development in spain during the demographic transition population studies 57 pp 63 75 riley james c 2001 rising life expectancy a global history cambridge cambridge university press smil vaclav 2005 the next 50 years fatal discontinuities population and development review 31 2 201 236 thornton arland 2001 the developmental paradigm reading history sideways and family change demography 38 4 449 465 thornton arland 2005 reading history sideways the fallacy and enduring impact of the developmental paradigm on family life chicago university of chicago press united nations 2004 report in world population to 2300 department of economic and social affairs population division new york 1 88 van de kaa dirk j 1987 europe s second demographic transition population bulletin 42 1 prb washington van de kaa dirk j 1996 anchored narratives the story and findings of half a century of research into the determinants of fertility population studies 50 389 432 van de kaa dirk j 2004 is the second demographic transition a useful research concept questions and answers in vienna yearbook of population research 4 10 the role of the developed west in this process is central to the way the demographic transition took place in much of the rest of the world the initial decreases in mortality were to a large extent more the product of the application of western technologies with respect to health than they were to social development or maternal education as occurred in europe with respect to fertility the role of family planning and efficient contraception both strongly promoted by the developed world were important for the onset and for the pace of decline demeny and mcnicoll 2006a 12 39 these countries were both passive and eager recipients of european technology and ideals with the consequence at least in demographic terms that there was an extended delay between mortality decline and the onset of fertility decline and once started the pace of fertility decline was extremely fast will fertility stay above replacement and will the number of births continue to increase or at least remain at levels near where they are at present should current trends continue many developing countries will have below replacement fertility in the very near future this pace of reduction of fertility would seem nearly unstoppable unless a baby boom takes hold in these regions as it did for historic transitions during the 1950s and 1960s the baby boom delayed the onset of belowreplacement fertility by nearly 20 years in the developed world though it did not stop it fertility decline became a two stage process an original decline followed by a pause or even an increase in fertility during the baby boom followed in turn by another period of intense decline in the developing world that same baby boom may have been a factor leading to the persistence of high fertility despite rapidly declining mortality will there be a second baby boom in the developing world our guess is that there will not mostly because the conditions of the baby boom were world wide at the time and appear unlikely to be repeated especially in light of the existence of efficient contraceptive technologies for this reason there is a chance that many developing regions will pass straight from the first period of fertility decline into the second one with little or no pause a more pertinent question however is whether the role of women in society is also being dramatically altered increasing reproductive efficiency so vital for europe s social and economic transformation is unquestionably affecting women the world over will this lead to increasing investments in the quality of children we believe it will especially as completed family size continues to decrease it is unquestionable that the role of women in society is changing though there continue to be enormous disparities in some areas there are already indications that woman no longer see their future as simply getting married and having children women s education has been increasing dramatically the world over despite problems in estimating female labor force participation in different societies over time it too appears to be on the increase one of the characteristics of historic transition processes is that they commenced in a wide variety of contexts though in the end the effects tended to converge everywhere this also appears to be true in much of the developing world social economic and cultural disparities amid demographic similarities everywhere the value of children and the costs of raising them will increase and so will the pressures on women to take advantage of new found time available to them to generate further income for their families there may be disparities in timing but the process appears to be widespread the implications of the demographic transition in much of the developing world are becoming clear the process of aging will be far more rapid and more intense than it was in historic populations in this way similar changes will take place in as little as half the time that it took in european nations throughout the developing world aging and its attendant economic and social challenges will become an acute social issue relatively soon after it becomes a central concern for societies in the developed world the intensity of change will leave these nations with but a brief window of the opportunity for modernization within which to take full advantage of the demographic dividend derived from their own transitions bloom et al 2003 labor shortages will be one aspect of the issue of aging in some countries this shortage of working age population is easy to predict because numbers of births have already been declining for several years we believe that it is only a matter of time perhaps 2 3 decades before they begin to affect many or most societies in the developing world the availability of surplus labor potential migrants to compensate the dearth of labor in the developed world may eventually be called into question as the sending countries begin to suffer labor strictures of their own posted by edward hugh at 10 00 am no comments monday february 18 2008 the path to lowest low fertility in ukraine the path to lowest low fertility in ukraine brienna perelli harris abstract the phenomenon of lowest low fertility defined as total fertility below 1 3 is now emerging throughout europe and is attributed by many to postponement of the initiation of childbearing here an investigation of the case of ukraine where total fertility 1 1 in 2001 is one of the world s lowest shows that there is more than one pathway to lowest low fertility although ukraine has undergone immense political and economic transformations in the past decade it has maintained a young age at first birth and nearly universal childbearing analyses of official national statistics and the ukrainian reproductive health survey show that fertility declined to very low levels without a transition to a later pattern of childbearing findings from focus group interviews are used to suggest explanations of the early fertility pattern these include the persistence of traditional norms for childbearing and the roles of men and women concerns about medical complications and infertility at a later age and the link between early fertility and early marriage posted by edward hugh at 9 31 am no comments italian fertility lowest low fertility signs of a recovery in italy m caltabiano m castiglioni a rosina italy is a country characterized by persistent very low fertility levels a country s fertility level is considered to be very low if it falls below 1 5 children per woman lesthaeghe and willems 1999 lowest low fertility on the other hand was introduced by kohler et al 2002 in order to describe those cases in which the total period fertility rate tfr drops below 1 3 lowest low fertility levels were recorded at a national level for the first time in italy and spain in 1992 italy has now had a fertility level below 1 5 for over twenty years and the last 15 years have seen levels near or below 1 3 more specifically italy s tfr dropped dramatically in the early 1990s and since then has not risen above 1 3 children per woman in fact the country reached a record low in the mid 1990s recording a tfr of less than 1 2 fertility rates since then have gradually increased for the first time since the baby boom up to today s current fertility level of 1 33 children per woman istat 2006 the moderate yet significant increase in fertility in the last 10 years is further specified by diverse regional patterns in the northern regions of italy period fertility has returned to the levels observed in the early 1980s in large part due to an increasing number of babies born to immigrants whose fertility is higher than native italians overall however there has probably occurred a slight increase in native fertility as well related to both new forms of family formation among the younger cohorts and to a recovery of postponed births among the older cohorts today about 15 of births occur outside of wedlock while about 10 of births are from immigrant parents in a number of southern regions on the other hand period fertility has continued to decline to very low levels e g in 2005 tfr in sardinia was at around 1 0 in other southern regions period fertility levels have recently stabilized although at levels much lower than those observed in early 1980s even if one considers cohort fertility rather than looking at period measures italian fertility levels still result particularly low according to the council of europe s 2005 demographic yearbook italy has the lowest total cohort fertility rate ctfr in europe 1 5 for the birth cohort 1965 and there is no indication that the decline in cohort fertility has come to a halt analyses which take into account diverse trends in fertility levels across regions and social groups can reveal more detailed information for example recent studies indicate that the negative impact of level of education on fertility levels has begun to decrease rosina 2004 dalla zuanna tanturri in press in the first part of our paper we present and discuss current developments with regard to fertility in italy both at the national and regional levels using data recently published by the italian national institute of statistics istat 2006 we apply a cohort approach showing changes both in ctfr and in the timing of births for the 1950 1980 cohorts in the second part of our paper we focus on late first birth fertility entry into motherhood after the age of 35 using individual level data from the 2003 istat multipurpose survey on the family famiglia e soggetti sociali we investigate both the determinants of postponement or the propensity to reach age 35 without having had a child as well as the determinants of recovery or the propensity to subsequently have a child for those women who reach age 35 with parity zero italy s path to very low fertility the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories david kertzer michael white laura bernardi giuseppe gabrielli the deep drop of the fertility rate in italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building among high income countries italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its european neighbors to the north we test competing economic and cultural explanations drawing on new nationally representative longitudinal data to examine first union first birth and second birth our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered posted by edward hugh at 9 10 am no comments trends in partnership behaviour in japan trends in partnership behaviour in japan from the cohort perspective conference paper from the national institute of population and social security research japan assumptions about the future age specific fertility rates required for population projections can be obtained using the cohort fertility method with this method we predict the average completed family size of younger cohorts based on the actual birth process of preceding cohorts since childbearing behaviour is affected by family formation and dissolution it is essential to examine these processes for constructing and assessing the future fertility assumptions results we will show in this paper are based on the preliminary analyses for producing official population projections for japan conducted by the national institute of population and social security research nipssr in this paper we describe patterns of partnership formation and dissolution from the birth cohort perspective recognizing that declining exposure to marriage may place a strong structural restriction on childbearing we then examine the extent to which these behavioural changes contribute to a fertility decline by cohort in addition to marriage divorce bereavement and remarriage may also be significant factors for fertility fertility assumpt...