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description= 10 posts published by moctavio during October 2008;
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the, in, venezuela, part, of, trial, to, blog, blogs, by, it, not, but, at, which, point, are, finances, trouble, oil, and, some, species, miami, venezuelan, maletagate, devil, excrement, archive, for, october, 2008, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, when, absolute, ignorance, reigns, 400, million, dollar, satellite, believe, or, ripley, revolution, from, blackouts, bytesout, ii, estimating, impact, low, prices, on, fiscal, picture, balance, payments, chavez, folly, he, owns, controls, everything, they, don, work, can, only, get, worse, special, eduardo, sends, great, pictures, xv, kauffman, gives, details, corruption, rackets, nothing, will, be, investigated, xiv, various, tidbits, as, wraps, up,
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the (301), and (98), that (68), this (42), has (41), for (41), #venezuela (34), billion (34), 000 (30), october (28), which (28), 2008 (27), was (27), with (26), oil (26), government (25), but (25), have (22), may (21), kauffmann (21), would (21), will (21), are (20), day (19), they (19), not (18), barrels (18), april (17), june (17), 2009 (17), all (17), had (17), you (17), country (17), million (17), march (16), venezuelan (16), been (16), november (15), january (15), february (15), 2007 (15), number (15), what (15), august (14), september (14), december (14), july (14), fonden (14), about (13), 2005 (13), said (13), thus (13), chavez (12), 2003 (12), 2004 (12), 2006 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), mso (12), from (11), leave (11), there (11), duran (11), right (11), one (11), per (11), barrel (11), posted (10), comment (10), left (10), part (10), can (10), two (10), pdvsa (10), who (10), like (10), cattleya (10), because (9), trial (9), more 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aised the speed with which electricity was restored as evidence of the effectiveness of the state s electric power system unfortunately chavez said that it only took 15 minutes for power to be restored this must have been for the presidential palace because i certainly had no lights for over two hours and some parts of the country had to wait as much as six hours to see the light a government official actually said about four hours after the blackout that it had been restored in 80 of the country contradicting the president or those that suck up to him by hiding the truth so the pantomime continues while hugo chavez promises a refinery one day a pipeline the next and to solve the electricity problem before the end of the year nothing happens a government that does not believe in know how and expertise who thinks that anyone can do any job including being president is setting back the country a few decades the money that should have been used to improve the electric power infrastructure of the country was instead used to satisfy another whim by the autocrat he spent a couple of billion us dollars buying out perfectly functioning electric private companies while the rest of the power system own by the government deteriorated just look at the power generation plant planta centro a 2 gw plant owned and run by cadafe the stateâ s electric company so the government spent money on buying working companies when oil was high rather than invest in repairing or building new electrical infrastructure substitute electric power for oil telecom water services whatever you like and you know what may happen of course in chavez folly oil will stabilize around us 100 per barrel but guess what it ain t happening as the venezuelan oil basket hit us 68 last week down to the levels that gave the government so much problems in 2007 except that the cost of producing venezuelan oil is up from around us 21 per barrel to us 28 per barrel during that period posted in venezuela leave a comment some special species october 20 2008 this is my very special cattleya violacea not only is it free flowering but this time it sent up two shoots with ten flowers six and four as shown on the left this despite the fact that we crossed it in april with cattleya violacea muse and i removed the fruit two weeks ago on the right a close up of the six flowers above left you can see what good sahep and color thisf violacea has on the right a cattleya phalenopiss ever spring light on the left is the first flowering a cattleya jenmanii kathy x color which i bougth from xavier caballero on the right is the small flower which is large above is the second flower of the cattleya jenmanii above i have placed a brand new pencil behind it so people can see how large it is on the right is blc morning glory x lc bonansa two pictures of the same unidentified dendrobium i love these posted in orchids leave a comment eduardo sends some great pictures of species october 19 2008 eduardo m sends some very nice pictures of venezuelan and brazilian species spectacular specimen plant of cattleya percivaliana on the left and a very large overlapped cattleya percivaliana on the right nice cattleya jenmanii on the left cattleya walkeriana from brazil on the right another cattleya percivaliana on the left with a very nice lip and oncidium onustum on the right posted in orchids leave a comment the miami venezuelan maletagate trial part xv kauffman gives details of corruption rackets nothing will be investigated in venezuela october 19 2008 co conspirator carlos kauffmann who has pleaded guilty of being an agent for the venezuelan government in trying to cover up the origin of the 800 000 dollars in antoninis suitcase testified on friday without the jury being present as explained well by javier caceres in notiven the reason for this testimony is that the judge will allow the defense to tell the jury that duran was entrapped by the fbi into committing a crime which the prosecution wants to counteract by showing that duran had a long history of corruption and services with the chavez government and trying to fix the antonini problem was just a natural continuation of durans record what the prosecutor had the judge do was give details on the earlier statements by kauffmann on the many ways they made money off corrupt officials in the current venezuelan government this had been included in an earlier affidavit discussed here in this blog but this time kauffmann gave a lot more details including many names el nacional has made a diagram of all of the links and connections of the people involved with maletagate with government officials in venezuela and argentina kauffman began talking about the national guard he mentioned sic names including general victor jose molina who has denied doing â œbusiness with kauffmann but did admit knowing him he said these people handled the finances and purchasing within the national guard we were their bankers said kauffmann we handled millions of dollars for them charging them 10 which i would divide with duran we handled millions in cash said kauffmann with the governor of cojedes johnny yanez rangel kauffmann said he had a long history recall that yanez rangel was part of a protest in front of the us embassy when kauffmann was detained where he defended his entrepreneur friends and that local reporter leocenis garcia showed that it was kauffmann who paid yanez vacation at the luxurious llao llao hotel in bariloche argentina according to kauffmann they would direct the deposits from cojedes state to bancoro a regional bank charging 10 of which the governor would get a 30 kickback they would hold and manage that 30 for the governor and charge him 10 for it pr year which kauffmann would split with duran duran and kauffmann also got contracts for public works of the order of us 10 million of which they would kick back 10 15 to the governor in vargas state the same one that was destroyed by mudslide in 200 and has never recovered but remains rabidly chavista go figure they would also direct deposits to bancoro and kick back 40 50 to the governor who they gave 250 000 us dollars for his campaign they also executed us 30 million in public works of which they would give the governor directly 10 15 and governor rodriguez would take care of distributing around to other officials on the citibank building kauffman said that it was not a great deal they bought it for us 4 5 million and sold t two weeks later to the ministry of finance for us 9 5 million kauffmann said they had to pay off not only minister of finance tobias nobrega but also jesus bermudez alejandro dopazos and lenin aguilera recall that bermudez was caught arriving in miami in a private airplane with us 40 000 in cash for christmas gifts in another sign of how the revolution has lost touch with reality kauffmann said he did not mind making only us 200 000 300 000 on this deal because it helped them gain the trust of the ministry officials and later they bought bonds for us 50 million which they later sold for us 100 million paying off the ministry officials us 25 million in kickbacks kauffmann also mentioned the ministry of education and fogade the latter has been involved with a number of corruption cases which actually led to the firing of its head jesus caldera infante among other jewels caldera infante gave about us 50 million to a manager purportedly representing a foreign bank the man was shot dead in caracas and the money was never found kauffmann said that duran and him got paid for directing deposits to banesco banco federal bancoro banco bolivar and banco canarias some of these banks said that this was false and that kauffmann had no account in them well everyone knows how official deposits are moved around the country and i can assure you all payments are made in cash no accounts needed remember i wrote a long post about this racket in 2005 funny kauffmann did not talk about his role in selling bonds to local banks that was another swindle he was known to participate very actively in finally testified that the government asked them to fix the maletagate problem and they willingly did it because this would get them future deals and protect their property in fact the government has seized the shares kauffmann and duran had in petrochemical company venoco as part of the local investigation which has yet to be made public and it is unclear what the charges will be or who will be charged but so far no investigation has been opened on the huge number of government officials ministers governors generals head of intelligence and the like that have been accused of being part of the kickbacks and corruption rackets in any reasonable country the scandal would be huge and the prosecutors would be having a field day not in venezuela during the robolution posted in maletagatetrial leave a comment at which point are venezuela s finances in trouble part i oil october 17 2008 everyone wants to understand what the recent 50 drop in oil prices means for venezuela the problem is that there are n simple answers mainly due to the lack of transparency in the country s numbers there are two approaches to this problem in the first one you can take what you believe in and describe it which is what i tend to do the second approach is to present the official story and compare it to what analysts and your own logic may say in what follows i will try to follow largely the second approach that is relate what the official version of the numbers is and then try to point out where the discrepancies and problems are while trying to keep it simple i am actually repeating things i have said before on oil but the recent drop in prices suggests it is important to review it to keep the subjects separately i will cover only oil in this first part we were told yesterday that the 2009 budget set the price of a barrel for the venezuelan oil basket at us 60 per barrel this number on its own is meaningless because you only get dollars for your exports that is the relevant number at the end of the day thus you need to know total production subtract internal consumption subtract oil sold as part of intra government treaties or at least figure out what fraction of that you get paid for production here is problem number one pdvsa says production is around 3 15 million barrels per day the international energy agency and opec says productions is around 2 45 million barrels of oil a day no matter how you turn this one around it is hard to believe that opec is wrong after all venezuela is a member and has argued and tried to change the number sadly the 2 45 million number takes the country back to 1997 in oil production internal consumption this is the key official number 530 000 barrels of oil a day my estimate 800 000 barrels a day ramon espinasa s estimate 750 000 800 000 who is right well let s look at the evidence in 2001 pdvsa stated that internal consumption was 510 000 barrels of oil a day thus pdvsa claims internal consumption has gone up 20 000 barrels a day since 2001 but between 2002 and 2007 the venezuelan economy supposedly grew by 44 and the number of vehicles increased by 50 the price of gasoline has drooped by more than 50 in real terms and the price difference between venezuela and colombia is a factor of 30 i take these numbers from espinasa thus it seems unbelievable that production has increased by barely 20 000 my number comes from the increase in vehicles alone using numbers from the car salesmen association clearly the pdvsa number makes no sense exports under treaties these are all official numbers for 2007 except china which is official 2008 petrocaribe 138 000 barrels a day caracas cooperation agreement 70 000 barrels a day argentina 34 000 barrels a day cuba 92 000 barrels a day san jose pact 80 000 barrels a day china 80 000 barrels a day the problem here is that conditions vary cuba has two years grace period plus long term cheap financing petrocaribe has 50 plus long term cheap financing as well as the san jose pact china never pays the oil pays for projects so that there is no cash flow for pdvsa the total is 486 000 barrels of which 170 000 does not get paid leaving 316 000 barrels only about half or 158 000 barrels of which gets paid and generates dollars for the country and cash flow for pdvsa thus of the total left after local consumption you subtract 486 000 and then add 158 000 summary with all of the above the believable numbers are production 2 45 million a day consumption 800 000 million barrels a day this gives 1 650 000 barrels a day but you have to subtract 486 000 and then add 158 000 thus the most likely number for venezuela s exports of oil is 1 322 000 barrels of oil a day this would provide foreign currency revenues for the country at the following levels price billions of us revenues billions of us 100 48 25 90 43 43 80 38 60 70 33 78 60 28 95 50 24 13 i will use these numbers in the latter parts but you see the picture venezuela will import over us 50 billion this year of curse the country has other sources of foreign currencies but the picture is not pretty if the country can t borrow abroad posted in venezuela leave a comment the miami venezuelan maletagate trial part xiv various tidbits as trial wraps up october 16 2008 normal 0 false false false microsoftinternetexplorer4 st1 behavior url ieooui style definitions table msonormaltable mso style name table normal mso tstyle rowband size 0 mso tstyle colband size 0 mso style noshow yes mso style parent mso padding alt 0in 5 4pt 0in 5 4pt mso para margin 0in mso para margin bottom 0001pt mso pagination widow orphan font size 10 0pt font family times new roman mso ansi language 0400 mso fareast language 0400 mso bidi language 0400 the trial in miami is winding up and nothing major deserving a new article has really happened but there have been some loose ends that have to be mentioned for the record earlier the venezuelan prosecutor had ordered the assets of maionica and kauffmann seized but had curiously left defendant franklin duran out none of them have been charged of anything yet but the prosecutor made it look a little better ordering the freeze of the assets of both antonini and duran according to an argentinean newspaper a customs agent that was present when guido antonini went through customs with the us 800 000 in a suitcase has testified in argentina that other suitcases were allowed through without being checked the judge in the maletagate case said it will allow the defense to argue entrapment in the case duran s attorney will argue that his client went to miami not as an agent of venezuela to help guido antonini but to help him as a friend because of this decision the prosecution has then requested that carlos kauffmann testify again before the trial ends it was believed that there would be no more witnesses but the prosecution wants to present additional evidence to counteract the argument that duran was acting out of friendshi...
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