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description=10 posts published by moctavio during January 2009;

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the, by, from, chavez, devil, excrement, for, to, blog, blogs, venezuelans, revolution, it, petkoff, as, under, archive, january, 2009, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, oil, revenues, per, capita, since, 70, rules, another, shameful, day, caracas, synagogue, desecrated, heavily, armed, groups, long, term, view, of, monetary, liquidity, and, international, reserves, in, venezuela, believe, or, not, because, loves, us, responding, general, teodoro, first, serious, poll, after, referendum, proposal, changed, yes, ahead, small, margin, economic, tales, venezuelan, politely, asks, equal, treatment, law, military, snaps, back, at, him, housing, puzzle, hugo, should, learn, zimbabwe, things, deteriorate, will, never, be, fault,

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the (397), and (138), that (100), not (45), #chavez (40), are (39), for (39), you (37), have (36), but (33), with (32), has (31), #january (30), this (29), government (27), all (27), 2009 (26), because (26), was (25), venezuela (24), which (24), general (22), were (21), people (19), there (19), time (18), will (18), housing (18), vote (18), may (17), 2008 (17), they (17), been (17), his (16), march (16), october (15), november (15), december (15), february (15), april (15), july (15), armed (15), forces (15), august (14), september (14), june (14), 2007 (14), from (14), one (14), some (14), can (14), petkoff (14), 2004 (13), 2005 (13), what (13), had (13), about (12), 2003 (12), 2006 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), who (12), large (12), comment (11), should (11), like (11), only (11), when (11), gonzalez (11), cases (11), officials (11), again (10), venezuelan (10), venezuelans (10), posted (10), per (10), today (10), oil (10), revolution (10), pdvsa (10), reserves (10), devil (9), now (9), even (9), would (9), those (9), without (9), once (9), any (9), electoral (9), our (9), exchange (9), rate (9), excrement (8), other (8), 2016 (8), leave (8), get (8), its (8), part (8), units (8), them (8), first (8), after (8), president (8), him (8), constitution (8), referendum (8), country (8), down (7), things (7), year (7), how (7), many (7), build (7), very (7), does (7), than (7), polls (7), law (7), way (7), their (7), see (7), love (7), said (7), voters (7), international (7), another (6), 2002 (6), back (6), inflation (6), always (6), never (6), thus (6), then (6), few (6), too (6), plan (6), over (6), problem (6), hugo (6), dollars (6), revenues (6), going (6), behavior (6), process (6), voting (6), paper (6), pretended (6), service (6), these (6), military (6), says (6), out (6), devaluation (6), bolivars (6), email (5), subscribe (5), high (5), bank (5), person (5), little (5), each (5), more (5), considered (5), right (5), 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shows (3), something (3), why (3), recent (3), excremento (3), del (3), diablo (3), caracas (3), orchids (3), fonden (3), your (3), occurred (3), low (3), remain (3), puzzle (3), talked (3), huge (3), maybe (3), end (3), none (3), built (3), nothing (3), minister (3), projects (3), wrong (3), years (3), life (3), economy (3), rather (3), easy (3), money (3), came (3), power (3), project (3), ivth (3), 1994 (3), reelection (3), ahead (3), lead (3), real (3), question (3), nervous (3), decide (3), side (3), treason (3), man (3), traitor (3), future (3), vice (3), seen (3), stop (3), socialism (3), majority (3), newspaper (3), let (3), history (3), closed (3), transported (3), closing (3), forced (3), line (3), open (3), contrary (3), feel (3), men (3), public (3), clearly (3), teodoro (3), point (3), indeed (3), party (3), since (3), yourself (3), sanz (3), suppliers (3), below (3), twice (3), sorry (3), think (3), unfortunately (3), margin (3), held (3), exclusive (3), case (3), 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d on the problems of an underdeveloped country venezuela with some serendipity about the world orchids techs science investments politics at large a famous venezuelan juan pablo perez alfonzo referred to oil as the devil s excrement for countries easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure venezuela might be a clear example of that archive for january 2009 older posts oil revenues per capita since the 70 s the devil s excrement rules january 31 2009 capitalism socialism oligarchs revolutionaries ivth republic vth republic it is all empty words rhetoric for venezuelans when you see the plot below which shows oil export revenues in blue and oil export revenues per capita in red from a presentation by economist miguel angel santos as you can see oil export revenues per capita are still below the peaks of the 70 s at us 3 500 per capita so people felt better in the 70 s because of this and these same revenues keep people going today but little has changed there was no model then there is no model today it s the devil excrement posted in venezuela leave a comment another shameful day caracas synagogue desecrated by heavily armed groups january 31 2009 if one reason to vote si in the upcoming referendum is to pay back chavez s love because you pay love with love a reason to vote no is that chavez hate begets hate too and a shameful act of desecration took place last night after the approximately fifteen men subdued the guards at the synagogue they spent about five hours destroying property including throwing on the floor the sacred torah rolls and painting the walls with anti semitic and anti israel slogans as the armed men left the synagogue they were shooting int the air and a rabbi said some of the cars were police patrol cars while the government tried to distance itself from the acts it is hugo chavez and his government that have introduced anti semitism into politics and venezuelan life for the first time in history recall that chavez mentor norberto ceresole was a rabid anti semite and holocaust denier and that the venezuelan government has twice raided the hebraica club in eastern caracas and twice broken relations with israel the jewish community in venezuela has dwindled since chavez came to power and as the president of the asociasion israelita said today we feel threatened and now attacked this is another violation of the international law the laws of venezuela and an additional violations of the human rights of a group of people instigated and promoted by hugo chavez himself it is another shameful day for venezuela posted in venezuela 1 comment a long term view of monetary liquidity and international reserves in venezuela january 31 2009 a couple of weeks ago quico showed a plot i sent him of monetary liquidity m2 in us divided by venezuela s international reserves going back to 1994 m2 is a measure of all of the bolivars in circulation in venezuela at the official rate of exchange because the results were so interesting i decided to go back even further to the 70 s when carlos andres perez was president and the exchange rate was held constant at bs old ones 4 3 per us getting all of the data was not easy as the central bank had gaps on the exchange rate but i managed to fill all of the holes and the result is shown above one can think of this plot as how much backing the bolivars in circulation have a value of 1 0 simply says that for each dollar in international reserves there is one dollar in bolivars in circulation thus at a current value of 3 the plot says that only one third of the bolivars in circulation are backed by the country s international reserves as you can see the value of 3 has only occurred once in the country s history right before what is known as the viernes negro or black friday when luis herrera campins had to do away with the bs 4 3 per us and the currency devalued dramatically in the ensuing months i have noted with red arrows the big devaluations that occurred during this time period and as you can see except the devaluation by chavez more the release of the band system in place at the time in 2002 all of the other large devaluations were preceded by a sharp rise of the ratio m2 international reserves some people like to plot the implicit exchange rate that is how many bs in circulation there are for each dollar at the central bank the problem is that this gives you no standard measure due to devaluations to compare things in time thus looking at this ratio makes historical comparisons better in any case this implicit rate today is bs 6 56 per us however as you can see a sharp rise in m2 reserves does not suggest a devaluation is imminent just that it is coming my sense is that the graph says that government s should not let this ratio get so large so as not to get in trouble but they usually do and eventually there is some crisis that forces devaluation luis herrera held off the crisis and the ratio got so large because the fondo de inversiones de venezuela had some us 30 billion abroad and pdvsa was allowed to keep its excess dollars abroad as the crisis ensued the government grabbed the fiv s money first and later forced pdvsa to send all its dollars to the central bank once the government went through those it was just a matter of time before the currency collapsed in the worst devaluation ever the size of the drop each time tells you how large the devaluation was lusinchi on the other hand left the second carlos andres government essentially no international reserves forcing it to devalue it was a case of the denominator going to zero rather than too many bolivars chasing too few dollars there were simply no dollars to be had caldera on the other hand had dollars but inflation was getting out of control as too many bolivars were chasing too few goods when caldera decided to devalue inflation was running at over 100 when you annualized the monthly inflation of december 1994 and january 1995 this is what we are seeing these days inflation is accelerating as m2 grows and the sustainability of such a large m2 reserves has been made possible by the large oil income that has kept reserves large as m2 has grown excessively but now oil is not only sharply down but the government just removed another us 12 billion from reserves the government does have us 20 billion in various savings accounts like fonden bandes and pdvsa but in reality the real rate of exchange is not bs 2 15 per us as the graph assumes but much higher because what the government has done is implement a stealth devaluation in which fewer and fewer items are given foreign currency at the official rate of exchange at the same time pdvsa now fonden in the first half of 2008 intervene in the parallel swap market selling us at the swap rate which is over 2 5 times the official rate this large arbitrage distorts things in the economy and commerce drives inflation up and eventually will force the government to devalue and the ratio will go back down to its normal levels posted in venezuela leave a comment from the revolution s believe it or not because chavez loves us january 30 2009 if i did not know felix tapia and what a serious and responsible guy he is i may not have believed this pamphlet which is being distributed around the country of the ten reasons to vote yes for hugo chavez if this pamphlet works then it is clear that i have a very good bs detector and most people don t i simply had to translate this garbage for you because chavez loves us and love needs to be paid with love because chavez loves us and is thus incapable of harming us if he proposes the amendment we know we feel he does it for our own good that of the country and the revolution he has demonstrated total unselfishness when it relates to the good of the people let us remember he placed his military career at risk to get us out of the hopeless black hole that the government s of the ivth republic used to be none of the oligarchs has taken the risk for the people and his cause on the contrary at the first sign of difficulties they shake like headless chickens and run to an embassy we now see impostors making themselves look like friends of the humble they have always looked down on us and they have never sacrificed anything for the poor because chavez and us are one in our goal of providing the citizens with the largest amount of happiness possible the people with chavez acquire acquire true power which is to fuse ourselves with the person governing be one alone with him conquering the true government of the people because we are all chavez and and we express ourselves in him and and with him to vote with chavez is to vote for us to vote for the oligarchs is to vote for our executioners because together we make mistakes and together we get it right with chavez we are making a government that is people and people that are government together we begin the beautiful adventure of building a world where man can realize itself with no other limitations than his own abilities because when we approve the amendment we strengthen chavez and strengthen ourselves so that we can purify rectify and advance all within the revolution and without the revolution the hope of the humble dies we will enter the abyss reserved to the people that surrendered themselves to the praises of their predators because without chavez we will lose the opportunity of showing the continent showing humanity that the path to hell that capitalism proposes can be avoided that there is hope that a viable and happy world is plausible that humanity has a future because if the oligarchs govern again it will be a government of owners against the humble and destitute then we will be reduced once again to the life of material and spiritual misery that we had in the fourth republic without any hope because without chavez we will postpone once gain the bolivarian dream the days of san pedro alejandrino can not be repeated now we will be paso de los andes ayacucho carabobo the memory of the liberators will not be dishonored the people do not hand over their kids or their leaders they don t exchange their dignity for a plate of lentils because with the amendment we will be showing that we are people that deserve the opportunity to build a world where human relations are determined by by fraternity and love never again shall we be negative people selfish small that exchange their future for little mirrors for sand for the promises of its executioners there you have it this is all so ludricous that if you can find one or two of the reasons that you agree with i think you should consider voting for the si posted in venezuela 1 comment responding to the general by teodoro petkoff january 29 2009 and teodoro petkoff responds to the press conference by general gonzalez gonzalez sr general gonzalez gonzalez you responded to our editorial yesterday addressed by the way very respectfully to your person i am not going to lower myself to the same level you invite me to which is to disqualify and insult you pointed me out as a liar as a deserter and accused me to be at the service of treason and anti homeland you qualified our paper as junky paper and a pamphlet a curious pamphlet this one which has deserved the honor of a public response from you accompanied by a group of high officials and the vice president from no other place than the miraflores palace itself i thank you for the honor and i am sorry that you spiced it up with personal adjectives that have nothing to do with the problem with that you lost not me the tone of our editorial was inviting a serious response because it is far from our mind to attack the armed forces but it is to point out side by side with the acknowledgment we made of the impeccable behavior of the majority of the the officials of plan republica those cases which are not few in which officials assumed in recent electoral processes behavior that is contrary to what it is said in the constitution and the laws that guide the plan republica allow me to ratify such cases because they are true moreover you yourself stated that supposedly it would be the role of the military to revise credentials of witnesses and members of the electoral polls well you are wrong sr general the revision of the credentials of witnesses and members of polling tables is the exclusive competence of the personnel of those poling stations which are all civilians the suffrage law establishes clearly that the members of the armed forces as part of the plan republica have no other purpose but to maintain public order the law does not give them the attribute you refer to of verifying credentials and determining who may be or not be a witness that is the exclusive attribute of the president and the members of the polling table we repeat you were wrong on that we ratify sr general that there were cases in which electoral polls that had reached closing time without the presence of voters in line and thus should close down the voting process were forced to and or there were attempts to force them to remain open in some cases to give time so that voters transported by chavez party could arrive indeed sr general as you said it is only the competence of the electoral board cne to establish extensions to the voting process not the armed forces but unfortunately there were cases in which some officials took that attribute upon themselves and pretended to decide up to what time such polling tables should be opened you were right sr general when you said that once a polling table is closed down within the legal schedule it can not be reopened unfortunately sr general there were cases in which some officials pretended to and in some cases they managed it open the polling stations that had been closed after the time was past and with no voters in line so that a group of voters transported in a rush by activists of the ruling party coul cast their ballot all of these cases were denounced to the electoral board it seems to us sr general that to point out these irregularities not only does not constitute an attack on the armed forces but it should have been received as a contribution so that the role of the armed forces is not distorted by some officials that assume the position of political parties which are constitutionally banned to the armed forces finally sr general i would like you to show venezuelans in which article of the constitution it says of the aremd forces that it is at the service of the revolution as you allowed yourself to ascertain i am sorry but article 328 of the constitution says in extremely clear fashion that in the fullfillment of its functions the armed forces are at the exclusive service of the nation and in no case at the service of a person or any political partiality posted in venezuela leave a comment first serious poll after referendum proposal changed yes ahead by a small margin january 28 2009 in the first serious poll to come out after chavez decided to include all elected positio...