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description=10 posts published by moctavio during September 2009;

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chavez, the, to, by, blog, blogs, new, 101, or, and, one, economic, plan, you, devil, excrement, archive, for, september, 2009, unknown, feed, subscribe, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, bonds, part, ii, looking, good, did, government, blink, releasing, julio, rivas, we, have, bond, two, issue, defends, praises, mugabe, it, takes, know, hugo, socialist, fascination, fixation, with, banks, an, random, decision, making, night, escape, from, realities, of, our, poor, country, show, off, style, hurts, venezuela, both, ways, venezuelan, oil, exports, usa, say, want, revolution, non,

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orth it what do i think will happen well the problem is that today may be too early to decide first of all the swap market could keep dropping between now and the last day to receive orders which is friday october 2nd if the swap rate drops a lot then it s tricky i personally think that the bonds will likely trade in the international markets near 14 14 5 which means a price around 144 should be fine but i reserve the right to change my mind before friday why because three things could still happen one the swap market could drop near or below 5 bs per dollar which would make it too close for comfort at 144 two the venezuelan yield curve could go up as investors sell bond prices are pushed down to get ready to buy these higher yielding bonds and three and this one we will not know until after your order is in the government could decide to issue more than us 3 billion if there are lots of orders this will have the effect that there will be more bonds lower bond prices than expected coming to market which would move the curve up even more yields to maturity higher than the 14 i expect thus on thursday i will give a brief update on how i see it then send questions to devilexcrement gmail com or write a comment with your question posted in venezuela 3 comments chavez defends and praises mugabe it takes one to know one september 28 2009 mugabe sleep at the margarita summit at the asa summit this weekend dictator hugo chavez gave robert mugabe a resounding backing saying mugabe has turned into the target of attacks of various institutions of the world system and through the world press he has been satanized he is attacked i want to give him our moral and political backing the people recognize him for his anti imperialists fights he is a man that has spent all his life in the anti colonianism fight we have to align ourselves in his defense this is the same hugo chavez that criticizes obama because he has not denounced the military dictatorship in honduras which is not even true but while chavez made this criticism in new york last week he came back home to meet with some of the bloodiest dictators on the planet just a week after he had visited most of them after the margarita meeting only north korea is missing from chavez list of face to face meetings with the worst dictators of the planet after his defense of mugabe visiting kim il sung will add nothing to our understanding of chavez true frame of mind posted in venezuela 6 comments hugo chavez a socialist s fascination and fixation with banks september 27 2009 for a so called socialist hugo chavez has a strange fascination with a tool that is an integral part of capitalism banks ever since he became president chavez has created quite a few of them remember banco del pueblo soberano it was supposed to give small loans to poor people who would in turn pay back their loans at preferential rates and allow the bank to give out even more loans it was an idea copied from the very succesfull grameen bank founded by muhammad yunus the venezuelan version did not work as well within a year it had to be capitalized as those running it spen half of the initial equity on the bank s system then there was some sort of scandal because the bank would mostly invest its funds in government paper rather than lend it out as was its mandate but much like the 2 000 barrio adentro modules left without doctors chavez lost interest in the project there was little follow up and nobody ahs heard from it in years it hasn t published financials since 2002 as if they were not part of the pueblo soberano chavze created in 2001 el banco de la mujer it was just like the banco del pueblo but aimed at helping women particularly those head of households that were running a small business to support themselves chavez also converted the old fondo de inversiones to bandes the development bank which acts in somewhat mysterious ways and participates in lots of teh high level financial operations of the country chavez also created the banco del tesoro a good idea whose main function was to concentrate the deposits of the public sector to make public finances more efficient it ahs done some of that but only a small fraction public deposits continue to drive a lot of the business of the private banking sector particular small and medium sized banks which for a fee pay government officials for their deposits much of these funds stay in these banks rather than being used so that the government officials that run them can continue receiving fees from this racket one of the biggest corruption schemes of the bolivarian robolution on the way the government s workhorse bank banco industrial de venezuela has been recapitalized twice and was recently intervened as the bank continues to lose money in a country where banking and finance has been one of the most profitable activities during the chavez era the chavez government also created the development banks aimed at financing development projects but somehow people can t tell the difference between them and regular banks even the iranians got into the game with the foudning in venezuela of the banco internacional de desarrollo a fully owned iranian bank that operates in venezuela and which has been in the news recently thanks to the warnings of robert morgenthau who argues that these activities represent a serious danger to the us chavze also nationalized banco de venezuela which was a subsidiary of banco santander reportedly chavez wanted to buy a bank that would allow the government to disburse payments to supporters around the country something bandes had been trying to do but not very sucessfully banco de venezuela was not the best bank for that but when chavez gets an idea in his mind he gets it and he got banco de venezuelatwo months ago he overpaid given valuations of banks in venezuela but not given the profits that well run banks may earn in this artificial financial environment where even with all restrictions arbitraging the government can be quite profitable one of the few measures that chavez has announced was that he named the president of banco de venezuela as if he did not have enough to do as president of all government banks likely hoping that some of the good things that banco de venezuela still has will rub off unfortunately the government has been running that bank for too short a time and it may be that it will be the other way around and soon banco de venezuela will see its profits and its competitiveness drop dramatically chavez has also been promoting the idea of banco del sur a regional bank located in venezuela which would become a sort of idb of south america or latin america most countries showed some interest in the belief that venezuela will put a up a few billions for them to borrow but chavez is not that dumb and now he does not even have the money due to the drop in oil prices but he had to sign something important at the margarita summit and he revived the idea of the bank which was so preliminary that chavez said the bank would have a capital of us 20 billion but his foreign minister maduro said that it would start with us 7 billion i bet everyone will wait for venezuela to put up the seed capital which means that the bank will not get going for a while as if this were not enough chavez came up with even another bank during his asa summit america south africa and suggested there should be another bank for joint projects among these countries he even came up with a name bancasa thus chavez claims to be a socialist but seems to have this fascination or fixation with a very capitalistic institution somehow it may be that he does not get the idea of how banks function quite well he seems to view banks as institutions that you can get money out of but does not seem to give much thought to the fact that someone has to put the money in the money has to be invested and banks are supposed to make some money at the end of the day or at least break even but so far all chavez has done is spend money in creating bureaucratic structures sinkholes for money which in the end have not resulted in the generation of loans or aid for the poor or for much development but rather than step back look at it and evaluate eliminating some of these wasteful institutions he presses forward creating new ones making bombastic announcements that in the end are completely useless but the fixation continues and in the absence of checks and balances nobody seems to ask whatever happened any of them as money is wasted on another chavez whim and fascination posted in venezuela 10 comments an economic plan by chavez or random decision making september 26 2009 for the last few weeks we have been hearing about the new economic plan that chavez team was putting into place first we heard that there were 40 measures and some fairly vaporous announcements were made such as the naming of six vice presidents and promises that cadivi will allow more foreign currency to flow but at last count no more than six or seven announcements had been made leaving everyone to wonder whether the plan existed or not in its entirety everyone knew that issuing debt was part of the plan part of that was known when this week the official gazette published the approval for the issuing of us 5 7 billion in local currency debt this was all that the national assembly had approved thus either the assembly had to rush to approve more or there would not be any dollar denominated debt issued which is what everyone was expecting in fact market players were saying that the announcement woudl be made monday or tuesday then last night soemwhat late minister of finance was quoted at the agencia bolivariana de noticias can t find that link here is another one as saying there will be no sovereign debt issues the rest of the year there may be some buybacks and refinancing rodriguez even explained himself saying that recent local issues had an effect on the swap rate which has gone down 15 in the last two weeks fairly clear no not doing something which the government has done frequently is in itself a decision and part of a plan no except that today in margarita ali rodriguez the same one that last night felt the urge to say there would not be any sovereign issues the rest of the year said this time around the government will issue us 3 billion in sovereign bonds next week this is clearly a wtf moment in chavista economic policy making changing your mind within less than twenty four hours definitely makes it sounds as if there is no economic plan and what you have is some form of random decision making process and while the decisions may not be random they do have a random element because the decision making process is quite complex first of all none of those involved is an economist merentes is a mathematician rodriguez is a lawyer and giordani has a bachelors in engineering and a ph d in planning i understand in urban planning to top it all off the chief economist is hugo chavez he has the ultimate decision making power in the whole process and makes the ultimate decision but add to this that the various teams disagree on what should be done merentes is the great proponent of issuing dollar denominated debt he used it when he was at finance and thinks it s a great tool to lower the swap market giordani on the other hand and he seems to have rodriguez on his side is against these dollar issues sold for local currency he argues and he is right that these issues no longer have much of an impact on the swap market they do help in lowering it but the effect is only temporary furthermore argues giordani how these bonds are allocated is not transparent and moreover does not get the foreign currency to the hands of those that need it additionally giordani is reported to have proof of the corruption involved in some of the bs us issues of the last few years i believ giordani is correct in his assessment and interpreted last nights announcement as evidence that he had won the argument over merentes but something clearly happened today and likely merentes made some argument with chief economist chavez that changed his mind maybe the argument this is pure speculation was quite simple it was too late to change to no bond all of the important members of the financial bolibourgeois groups were positioned to take advantage of the bond canceling would not only give them huge losses but by forcing them to go to the swap market and cover their short positions they sold dollars they did not have ahead of the announcement of the bond the swap rate would go back up next week sharply and part of the work done by the government would be lost which is true but only because the privileged information that the bond would be released had been leaked to the friends of the robolution unfortunately every decision is made like that each group fights for its own point of view chavez has the final decision and in the end the policies of the plan are incoherent making the whole process look and act absolutely random on the venezuelan economy and our daily lives in the end the process is no different than throwing darts and or picking pieces of paper at random from the floor and it shows posted in venezuela 8 comments a night to escape from the realities of our poor country september 24 2009 so tonight as most people in venezuela watch either miss venezuela or larry king interviewing the dictator or both by switching channels i think about this uneventful day in venezuela when 1 the 12th victim of the chlorine spill died today so far only the truck driver has been jailed and i suspect nobody else will ever be jailed for this neither the pdvsa people who allowed the truck to be driven unsafely through venezuela nor the ones that did not secure the cylinders nor the traffic people that allow all drivers to go 30 40 above the speed limit nr the local authorities that allowed the highway to have potholes and deteriorate nor the government officials that allowed the hospitals to deteriorate we are all responsible said hugo he should be charged too to such an extent that the clarines hospital did not have the supplies to take care of those affected by the accident thus the driver becomes the chino de recadi the only man jailed in a chain of irresponsible of events where the driver was probably the weakest link to his credit he even tried to drive the truck away from clarines but the truck went into the drain 2 yesterday or the day before there was a shoot out in el valle in south western caracas a total of ten people were killed by the police el nacional page c 8 the mother of the person the police were looking for acknowledges that her son was not a saint but she says at least five of those killed were innocent some in the barrio say the cops routinely go in the barrio and kill kids at will other say the cops stole stuff from their home what kind of country have we become when the police can kill ten people like that and there is no outcry 3 the numbe...