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21 september 2009 the devil s excrement the devil s excrement observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country venezuela with some serendipity about the world orchids techs science investments politics at large a famous venezuelan juan pablo perez alfonzo referred to oil as the devil s excrement for countries easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure venezuela might be a clear example of that archive for september 21st 2009 chavez economic non plan september 21 2009 after wondering arguing discussing and waiting we finally have chavez economic plan only six months late or do we let s see there will be 40 measures but chavez could not keep his own secret and leaked some of them among them already implemented six ministers of the cabinet have received an upgrade and have become vice presidents so that in chavez words we can have a more political cabinet than administrative one is he kidding us does he think that 2 000 barrio adentro modules have no doctor because of political rather than administrative matters and on top of that the people are the same ones that have been incapable of doing anything but let s not get hung up on this after all this is the easy measure already decreed sworn in more assistants higher salaries and the like meaningless the next measure an employment program jeez chavez got frustrated in 2004 with about eight employemnet programs that never panned out i guess he is willing to give a try to another failure next we will sell a bond to lower the lowered parallel market i guess the most significant part of this was that chavez not only acknowledged the existence of that other market which is legal but that he admitted that the government had lowered it according to el nacional the government injected us 300 million this week i hear it was us 350 million it does not matter that rate is simply not sustainable either you give cadivi money or the swap market both it is simply not possible as to the bond most previous issues have been atomized in such fashion that they have only lowered the swap rate psychologically up to the date of the bond allocation and given international markets us 3 4 billion may give markets indigestion in any case issuing a bond is not a plan it is like giving aspirin to someone that has swine flu monetary liquidity stands at us 103 billion reserves at us 33 billion see the problem liquidity keeps going up reserves stay around us 30 billion what happens when liquidity reaches us 200 billion or us 300 billion i don t know when this bubble explodes but it will and the result will be ugly very ugly while it doesn t inflation is at 30 i wonder if anyone has explained to hugo what this mean to the people next cadivi will give more money to importers jeez this is like the doctors in barrio adentro we have been hearing about cadivi giving more money to importers for months but nothing happens is this an administrative or a political decision and the final part of the plan that we know about is that the misiones will be revived which actually depends more on the administrative than on the political cabinet but chavez seems to think the second one is more important in the end this is an economic non plan these are so far just a bunch of measures all disjoint aimed at trying to reduce some distortions in the economy but they are not part of a plan that attacks the problems of the distortions in the venezuelan economy in the end it is all political for chavez unfortunately for him if oil stays at current levels a year from now none of these measures would make a difference on the contrary these are all superficial and temporary measures whose effects will dissipate even before the end of 2009 to the chavez cheerleaders i tell them try living on minimum wage with 30 inflation and tell me the venezuelan economy is doing fine as for oil the chart looks positive it seems ready to break 75 bucks if it does not watch out hugo posted in uncategorized venezuela 10 comments 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