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description=5 posts published by moctavio during February 2015;

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the, blog, blogs, by, government, and, system, but, devil, excrement, archive, for, february, 2015, unknown, feed, subscribe, to, via, email, categories, all, miguel, octavio, blogroll, venezuelans, recent, posts, archives, pages, meta, stats, maduro, has, become, totally, insensitive, cynical, caracas, mayor, ledezma, arrested, simadi, may, be, it, is, not, market, venezuela, another, marginal, fx, venezuelan, flip, flops, between, pragmatism, radicalism,

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the (326), and (133), that (71), this (51), for (42), but (39), will (39), not (37), #system (35), #government (33), market (30), have (29), you (28), was (27), has (24), maduro (24), february (23), 2015 (23), with (23), may (22), its (21), there (19), which (19), are (19), can (19), all (18), they (18), march (17), april (17), bank (17), new (17), foreign (17), january (16), venezuela (16), only (16), about (15), october (15), november (15), from (15), what (15), chavismo (15), august (14), september (14), december (14), june (14), july (14), 2014 (14), same (14), currency (14), rate (14), 2003 (13), 2005 (13), 2010 (13), been (13), sell (13), 2004 (12), 2006 (12), 2007 (12), 2008 (12), 2009 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), just (12), would (12), now (11), exchange (11), billion (11), price (11), were (11), other (10), time (10), your (10), banks (10), year (10), 2016 (9), venezuelan (9), opposition (9), then (9), one (9), even (9), last (9), does (9), buy (9), kid (9), comments 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chool and was caught in the middle of a demonstration he hid under car and a policeman pulled him out of from under it as the kid started telling the cop not to repress them the cop simply shot at his head with whatever type of gun he was using killing him as if this was not sufficient the cops then tried to drag the body away with their motorcycle but they were stopped by the friends of the kid and the protesters who simply could not believe what was happening before any specific facts were known maduro who was in trinidad made statements suggesting that colombian paramilitary groups had infiltrated the country into san cristobal where the murder occurred and that the kid belonged to a right wing sect yes he was the member of a boy scout troop maduro also spewed out all his usual vile about the us wanting to overthrow him the right wing opposition and the like soon after that the general prosecutor said the cop had been detained and would be charged among other things with using an illegal weapon in the control of protests this was clearly denied by both the people s ombudsman and the investigative police both of which said that the kid was killed with a gun that only shot plastic pellets witnesses said that the wounds the kid had in his head were not consistent with plastic pellets as there were deep gashes and burn marks around them by now the government in its cynicism is portraying the prosecutor dixit the cop and the kid both as victims of the right wing yes the young cop is also a victim but it is a victim of the hatred and indoctrination of the police corps where human rights and respect are not promoted instead it is a culture of repression and hate which is promoted daily in these organizations filled with loyal members of chavismo and the governor of tachira state gets all worked up because people are calling for the abrogation of decree 8610 the same one that allowed the use of guns by the armed forces in the control of protests because the murder of the 14 year old kid had nothing to do with that decree of course it does when the minister of defense calls a decree which violates human rights agreements beautiful the murder of this kid has everything to do with the culture and the atmosphere of repression created by chavismo in venezuela and to prove this point in the last week six young kids all under 23 all near protests or protesting or detained during protests were either shot dead in the head or found later shot in the head all were students none ever detained before by now the government is giving in some cases alternative explanations to these deaths meanwhile the new media purchased by unknown foreign investors not allowed by law but who pays attention does not even report the death until hours later suggesting the students were all attacking the cops or part of the demonstrations meanwhile the dean of venezuelan journalism who presides over one of these ultimas noticias s ays he does not even know who purchased the newspaper but they want to have a different medium and defends the concept that some sort of weird coup was indeed staged against nicolas maduro what a sad and cynical role this supposed dean of journalism and freedom of expression is playing in the venezuelan tragedy and just as you think you have heard enough maduro tells the worl d if it was listening that the world s powers have to rationalize the use of oil funny point to make from the leader of a country which has doubled daily gasoline consumption since 2001 by giving it away for almost free but as if this was not enough he called for the use of clean energies and techniques i guess he is so concerned with the environment that this is why he eliminated the ministry of the environment last year but the beat goes on for chavismo the lines at supermarkets are invisible non existent and just part of the economic war the protests are led by usa trained and backed 20 year old students inflation is not a problem and god will provide they hope and as the family of the 14 year old that was murdered buries him there are no words of condolences no expressions of compassion just a warning that if the opposition gets pesky and the protests over the deaths or shortages or inflation continue the government may be forced to ban the opposition so that it can proceed to have elections in democracy and peace later this year such is the cynical logic of chavismo madurismo today there is no gray area anymore just cynicism and insensitivity for all posted in uncategorized venezuela 73 comments caracas mayor ledezma arrested february 20 2015 video of intelligence police taking caracas mayor antonio ledezma away after two weeks of threatening to arrest him intelligence police sebin raided the offices of caracas mayor antonio ledezama and forcibly took him away while shooting into the air as they left the intelligence police had no arrest warrant and it was not until president maduro later spoke on forced nationwide tv that the president confirmed that he had been arrested on orders from the prosecutor venezuelan media did not report the incident other than el nacional for hours as people gathered outside the sebin offices near plaza venezuela but it was not until the early hours of the morning that it was learned that ledezma was being held in el helicoide maduro claimed that ledezma would be tried for his crimes against peace noting in particular that he had signed a letter which was nothing but a conspiracy against him the letter was signed by ledezma leopolodo lopez and maria corina machado and called for a transition government of national unity maduro revealed that he had been in cuba during the carnival break suggesting that this strategy was cooked up there the strategy is likely to be to create protests intimidate and at the same time distract the population from the numerous economic problems the country has this is a typical strategy by chavismo of becoming aggressive whenever its popularity goes down looking to show that the president chávez then maduro now is in charge and deserves the support of its sympathizers the concern is that what the government wants to do is minimize the leadership of the opposition ahead of the parliamentary elections polls suggest that chavismo will lose such an election by a wide margin but at this time maduro is likely trying to stop the opposition from obtaining a 2 3 majority if this were the case the national assembly could approve bills before the new assembly takes over moving subjects such as budgetary approval and the like to the executive branch if the opposition did not obtain the 2 3 majority it would be unable to overturn such bills the detention does little to help the image of maduro internationally but it has been clear for quite a while that he cares little about that and is behaving like an outright dictator the outcry so far internationally is the loudest since the detention of leopoldo lopez but the immediate reaction and condemnation of the detention for the opposition taking advantage of the government s low popularity will not be easy the opposition lacks access to the media and has precarious financing if its leadership were to be jailed the battle would become even more uphill to obtain 2 3 of the deputies in the national assembly any possible electoral discrepancies would never be investigated chavismo would achieve its goal of keeping power no matter what clearly there seems to be no one that opposes maduro within the government at this time going forward repression is likely to increase as the government sets aside any pretense of being democratic not pretty posted in uncategorized 31 comments simadi may be a system but it is not a market february 12 2015 just my luck that last night just as i pushed the publish button i received a copy of foreign exchange agreement 33 regulating the new market different than the cencoex bs 6 3 per us system and the bs 12 sicad system then this afternoon i received the regulations for the securities part of simadi in some sense it is good that it happened this way otherwise lst night s post may have been too long complex and boring to give you my punchline right away simadi may be a system but a market it ain t in fact it an extraordinarily complex and bizarre system for buying and selling currency it even makes you wonder why it is that way simadi has three parts 1 the cash retail system 2 the bank cash system 3 the bank and broker securities system let s look at each of them 1 the cash retail system this market called menudeo will function via foreign exchange houses and banks and be devoted only to individuals minimum is us 300 and it will be limited to us 300 per day us 2 000 per month and us 10 000 per year for each individual how does it work you go to your bank or exchange house and buy or sell dollars at yesterday s exchange rate for the system this will also be yesterday s rate the referential rate for credit card transactions and custom duties 2 the cash bank system this is likely the weirdest one minimum is us 3 000 you also buy at yesterday s rate however each bank can only buy and sell foreign currency with its own clients that is there is no interbank system or market you buy and sell only with the clients of your bank and at yesterday s price to make it even weirder banks can not hold positions that is they can not buy dollars for their own account in this system only by buying selling cash from clients and selling buying cash to other ones if they buy too much on a given day they have to sell any excess foreign currency to the venezuelan central bank oh yeah if you are a client and want to do either you have to send the bank either the bolívars or the us to the bank ahead of time only if they are there is the bank allowed to do the transaction 3 the securities system the securities system will operate in the bolivarian stock exchange where all authorized brokers and banks can operate they can buy or sell dollar denominated securities in exchange for bolivars at an agreed rate however they can not do transactions with anyone but their clients and other brokers and banks can not be your client i e you have the sellers you can find buyers among your clients that s it when you sell the bonds in us the dollars from the transaction have to go to your venezuelan banking system dollar based account in this market brokers and banks can take positions i e they can buy for example dollars from a client keep it and later sell it to another client but not to another broker or bank oh yeah the central bank does have to approve the transactions you close thus this is no market this is just a bizarre system why do you need to do this via an exchange is a mystery except that the government wants to keep tabs of transactions but there are no bids or asks the clients of your institution to use the language of the regulations agree on a price and you do the transaction at that price but you don t talk to other market players you only look at previous transactions and try to have your clients agree on a price what does this mean the price has a strange way of being constructed there is no market per se if you are a bank or a broker you can only sell however many dollars your own clients sell to you i suspect that government owned banks will have a huge advantage as the government the largest generator provider holder of foreign currency will likely give its own banks bonds or foreign currency to trade they will have a gigantic advantage over private banks once again leave the private sector out of it as much as possible maybe the word marginal refers to the role of the private sector in all this the parallel market still exists moreover there will be arbitrage now not only between cencoex and sicad and the parallel rate but there will also be arbitrage between simadi and the parallel rate and a privileged few will make a lot of easy money market it is not just a bizarre and complex system to exchange foreign currency par for the course from chavismo posted in uncategorized 64 comments venezuela another marginal fx system february 11 2015 i waited until today to write about yesterday s announcements about the new fx system because we were promised for today some decrees relating to the rules that would oversee these supposedly new fx system but much like everything that has happened so far in 2015 there are new delays and who knows when these new rules will come out and in any case they may be irrelevant anyway or to use a word that is en vogue the details of the rule may be marginal to the whole subject and its future maduro took three weeks in january traveling around the world begging for money then he took four days after coming back to give a speech in which he announced that in the next few days we would know the details about this newfangled state of the art new system for doing what people have been doing for centuries exchanging one currency for another but the few days for this complex task took three weeks and it was not until yesterday that we heard some details details the new system has three parts the first two are a rate for cencoex same name of bs 6 3 same number per us and a rate for sicad same name which will start at bs 12 same number again per us thus so far 66 of the new three part system is identical to what has been in place since april 2014 in fact it is so identical that even the percentages of foreign currency indicated by the minister that will be sold in each market are practically the same as estimates of how foreign currency was distributed last year in the two systems and then there is the new and marginal third fx system which will be called the sistema marginal de divisas simadi marginal system for foreign currency really you can t make this stuff up now about the only thing we know about this new system for real is that it will have a price higher than the old sicad 2 system and that it will be called simadi which is the subject of numerous jokes including si stema de ma duro y di osdado the rest is having to take at face value what the minister of finance and the president of the central bank said about it i it will be a system subject to market forces free floating ii it will have no limitations or restrictions iii it will operate via banks brokers and exchange companies but there will be a limit in the latter however to participate in the market the rules will be the same as for sicad 2 you have to register open an account in us in a bank in venezuela and provide your last venezuelan tax return now according to maduro today from 3 5 of all foreign currency will flow through this system at today s oil prices that is about us 1 5 billion at the top range of 5 of course merentes and torres talked about anyone can sell in this market and that it would start near the parallel market rate and then go down yeah everyone is waiting to sell well pardon me for being so skeptical let s assume that the parallel rate is bs 200 ...