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description=7 posts published by moctavio during January 2016;

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the (482), and (138), that (91), not (80), for (62), this (49), are (46), has (44), but (43), can (42), was (42), you (37), which (34), will (34), economic (34), #venezuela (33), there (33), with (32), have (31), what (30), they (30), from (27), #assembly (27), january (25), all (25), some (25), may (22), opposition (22), more (20), about (19), new (19), how (19), been (19), only (19), 2016 (18), people (18), even (18), july (17), chavismo (17), were (17), ships (17), march (16), time (16), who (16), maduro (16), october (15), november (15), february (15), april (15), 2014 (15), country (15), august (14), september (14), december (14), june (14), 2015 (14), government (14), did (14), day (14), first (14), its (14), see (14), national (14), when (14), picture (14), now (13), 2006 (13), 2008 (13), would (13), years (13), last (13), one (13), produce (13), other (12), 2003 (12), 2004 (12), 2005 (12), 2007 (12), 2009 (12), 2010 (12), 2011 (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), hall (12), get (12), 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es which was repudiated by chavismo perhaps the most positive thing to has happened is that there has been acceptance of the victory by the opposition even if this has been a reluctant acceptance or not it is there whether thanks to the military or not the opposition found the need for security the first day the deputies were sworn in at the assembly but the routine of at least bi weekly sessions is such that the last time the assembly met in a regular session there were no significant security forces outside the assembly building the same inside where reporters and public can now go in without much hassle this represents some semblance of the return of normal democratic life to the country a huge advancement and this return to normalcy is also present in an increased access to the media by the opposition even if vtv did not want to show ramus allup a negative nomination on which i have opined sufficiently it had no other recourse but to show his speech right after maduro s speech by now some of the old new media such as globovision has begun to hedge it bets increasing its coverage of the opposition more democracy can only be good i think it was a negative for the opposition to go back on the swearing in of the three questioned amazonas deputies it should not have done so if it was not willing to go constitutional conflict on the terrible decision by the electoral hall of the court given the 45 thousand plus decisions in a row by the court in the last 15 years it should not have expected anything else while it was a puzzle why amazonas was picked given how close elections were there the truth may have been revealed this week when it was noted that some chavista deputies have requested the supreme court interpret whether the indigenous representatives to the assembly should be elected by the population of those states at large or only the indigenous population curiously the opposition had raised this issue in the past only to be denied even when chavismo dominated that vote chavismo probably thinks that it can win one of the three assembly members with this trick and deny the 2 majority to the opposition but i doubt it unfortunately maduro did not understand the message about the economy and seems to still be clueless at this time since dec 6th oil has dropped by about us 8 per barrel somewhat less for venezuela s oil basket but the venezuelan president did not mention any concrete measures in his state of the union address and his economic emergency bill only include the possibility of more expropriations despite the dismal failure by chavismo with them over the last 16 years he did say gasoline prices should be increased a decision which is solely in his hands he should talk less and do something and with oil under 30 per barrel less than us 23 for the venezuelan basket this means that foreign currency revenues for the country will be under 50 of what they were during 2015 and as venezuelans line up for food medicines and even to have their deodorant refilled one has to ponder how awful things will get in the upcoming months posted in uncategorized 20 comments first constitutional crisis as supreme court s electoral hall attempts to freeze venezuelan national assembly january 11 2016 well sooner than you could say henry ramos the first big constitutional crisis exploded today in venezuela as the electoral hall made a ruling that sets up a huge confrontation between powers the hall ruled 1 the venezuelan national assembly is in contempt of the court for not obeying its decision to not swear in the deputies from amazonas state 2 because of this says the electoral hall any decision made by the assembly so far and in the future is completely illegal 3 the court orders the national assembly to immediately disincorporate the three deputies the decision is quite bizarre in too many ways but what do you expect from justices some of whom do not qualify to hold the position and violate the law in many cases as they were card carrying members of chavismo s party psuv first of all the legal concept of taking away the proclamation of a deputy does not exist moreover there are precedents for this which are not even mentioned in the decision by the same hall and the constitutional hall of the venezuelan supreme court second once proclaimed according to the venezuelan constitution only the national assembly itself can qualify a deputy nobody else can least of all the electoral hall of the supreme court which only rules on electoral matters once the electoral board proclaimed the candidate this is no longer an electoral matter the same applies to nullifying acts by the national assembly it is not the role of the electoral hall to nullify such acts least of all future acts an absurd legal concept maybe these justices do not understand that the electoral hall rules on electoral matters no on matters which should be the realm if at all of the constitutional hall of the national assembly finally it is sort of stupid to rule invalid decisions by the national assembly that are taken without the three questioned deputies participating in the vote if they had nothing to do with the decision there was nothing illegal about it but the real conflict arises and will explode now for the simple reason that the national assembly can simply not accept the decision for political reasons since the decisions are illegal backing down would imply that the court would simply stop the elected national assembly from doing anything in the future and the key word here is elected a court that was not elected by popular vote and under questionable circumstances from a legal point of view can not pretend to be above the popularly elected national assembly moreover i think the national assembly has no other recourse but begin proceedings against the same justices something that they can do thus we go into an infinite loop of non recognition of one by the other who will be the referee in such a battle meanwhile the economy gets worse the price of oil goes down and the maduro government devotes itself to talking about the removal of chávez pictures form the national assembly building clearly there is no interest in attacking the economic problems and distortions even more clearly there is no intention in recognizing the qualified majority obtained by the opposition who was it that said chavismo was democratic yeah sure posted in uncategorized 31 comments santero economists take over economic policy in venezuela january 7 2016 organizational chart for the new venezuelan cabinet named by president maduro in july i suggested that even with the upcoming elections santero economics the peculiar form of economic management that has taken over venezuela since maduro got to power would not go away with the legislative elections yesterday president maduro named his new cabinet chart above there are so many ministers that it is essentially unreadable and it is clear from it that the santeros have taken over what maduro did was to make luis salas vice president for the economy salas is the center piece of the santero economic team as he represents one third of the group together with tony boza and alfredo serrano who is not venezuelan that has kidnapped maduro s economic mind yes it s meant to be cynical over the last three years there are some positives like naming economist rodolfo medina to the ministry of finance medina is a professor of econometrics at central university he is no milton friedman but at least he knows and understands traditional economic theory he is accompanied by jesus farias a communist economist who at least has been proposing that there should be a single exchange rate who will be the new minister of foreign trade and international investment a newly created post which only proves the level of ignorance involved in forming the cabinet uber leftists ricardo menendez remains in the post of minister of planning one of the first problems of this team is precisely the level of incoherence involved how will medina a practicing economist talk to salas a 100 santero economist how will farías argue with salas when salas is against many of the ideas proposed by farias for the last three years salas boza and serrano have imposed economic thinking in venezuela despite the fcat that they did not occupy any ministry they are the creators of the concept of economic war as the explanation fro the large levels of inflation and the scarcity that is present in venezuela their solution to the economic problems is more controls more supervision more taxes and fighting the oligarchs who are responsible for everything while the foreigner in the santero economic think tank serrano is an economist salas is a sociologist and boza claims to be a popular economsit whatever that may mean what these people do is to disregard the body of work of economic knowledge based on theory and experience and construct arguments not theories to suggest that body of knowledge is simply incorrect there are no publications involved just some self published pamphlets which contain no equations only graphs of empirical data and hyperbolic and false statements to supposedly support their views i linked boza s pamphlet last july here are salas economic postulates for lack of a better word among the many things that salas posits is that the law of supply and demand is vulgar that monetizing the deficit is not inflationary that inflation onl occurs because of speculation that in real life inflation does not exist and that it all is an economic war much like that waged against allende in chile thus the solution is simply to be tougher increase controls over prices and make the private sector pay more taxes which means that santero economics will prevail inflation and scarcity will accelerate and little will be done by maduro and his cabinet to attack the distortions in the venezuelan economy not only does santero economics not work but those in the economic team do not have the coherence or managerial capability to accomplish much except for the pain that this implies what this means is simply the acceleration of the demise of the maduro government who will bring down chavismo with him there will be no change in direction now and given the past those recently named will not exit the cabinet fast if they obtain no immediate results this bodes badly for venezuela and its people short and medium term but at the same times sets the stage for promoting an outcome in which chavismo no longer leads in the country two questions for the new vp if the law of supply and demand is balurda can he comment on why oil prices have come down in the last year and a half if creating money does not cause inflation why not print infinite money so that everyone is very rich posted in uncategorized 34 comments a bright and hopeful day for venezuela january 6 2016 workers remove chavez giant poster from national assembly building while i am far away i could not help but be glued to the events in caracas today while it was certainly not a smooth day it was a great day for venezuela a day of hope and possibilities a bright day for the future of democracy in the country a very important day for venezuela s history and the image above clearly shows that change is in the air the statues have yet to fall but it s coming the beginning is here let s see how long it takes to get to a good point i will start with the most important signs of the day the national assembly controlled by the opposition was allowed to be sworn in almost with no violence this was not clear would be the case a couple of weeks ago the press from all sides was allowed into the assembly freely for the first time in years to report what was happening reporters need not be afraid anymore the opposition had presence in the media beginning to restore its practical ban from tv radio and print the people will be able to see and hear the other side like it has not happened in years the opposition managed not to be provoked by chavismo maintaining a serious and peaceful tone a new tone of democracy and conciliation chavismo showed its true autocratic colors it refused to have a dialogue resorting to the usual insults except some the insults were elegantly returned by the opposition perhaps nothing exemplified this more than the very direct reproach of the use of diplomatic passports for drug dealing which must have stung the first lady who is now a deputy for cojedes state the first steps towards more institutionality were taken no more rubber stamps no more legislation from the executive branch no more hiding behind the revolution the message was clear the assembly will call on all powers to explain what they did do or plan to do there will be accountability for all government officials chavismo looked bad from an apparently inebriated opening speech by the oldest deputy in the hall to their use of expensive watches and jewelry to chavismo abandoning the assembly they sent the wrong signals to voters that clearly indicated that they want change blaming the opposition for the country s problems is simply not working the change is coming but from the other side the negative part was that the opposition did not manage to swear in all the deputies but it still has a two thirds majority clearly there is a force behind the whole day taking place the way it did someone told maduro and his cronies to avoid violence to allow the voice of the voters to be heard chavismo wanted to question 22 deputies but it did not happen and the case in amazonas is extremely iffy it would have been nice to have all of them sworn in and impose the authority of the assembly for me another negative is the presidency of the assembly a new venezuela deserves better than ramos allup there no matter how realpolitik it may have been to name him he represents the old guard tied to lies corruption and protection of relatives if he is the best the opposition has the opposition has a long way to fill the shoes it wants to fill a good beginning a bright beginning many chavistas must be trembling after today they can no longer hide checks and balances look like they are back in venezuela so is the press which will have access at least to ask uncomfortable questions it may be time to carefully decide whose side you are on or how strongly you support maduro red shirts are out suits are in if chavismo keeps screaming and acting like cry babies the demise of the revolution will simply accelerate there is a long road ahead but it seems as if each day it looks a little shorter for those who are not convinced of this i invite you to reflect on what ramos did to alek boyd and why he did it is that the venezuela we want posted in uncategorized venezuela 46 comments january 2016 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 dec feb unknown feed an error has occurred the feed is probably down try again later subscribe to blog via email 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