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the (300), 2012 (165), #temperature (64), and (58), that (57), sell (53), #hadcrut (49), for (48), trend (42), last (39), this (37), slope (36), global (35), months (34), 2011 (33), data (31), climate (30), with (28), year (28), line (28), trends (28), are (26), warming (24), what (24), entry (24), buy (24), posted (22), month (22), over (22), there (22), current (22), decline (21), change (21), slopes (20), has (20), here (20), end (20), 2010 (20), may (19), analysis (18), which (18), recent (17), years (17), charts (17), day (17), value (16), ice (16), can (16), since (15), date (15), been (14), point (14), period (14), they (14), forex (14), 2009 (14), chart (13), but (13), anomaly (13), from (13), price (13), trading (13), currency (13), account (12), anomalies (12), ending (12), june (12), allianz (12), update (12), 2008 (12), information (11), 120 (11), was (11), diatribe (11), guy (11), 360 (11), other (11), consistent (10), itself (10), very (10), latest (10), see (10), all 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Text of the page (random words):
r positive new orders since end of day 05 31 2012 settled by end of day 06 30 2012 date of entry type of entry lot size currency pair entry price date of settlement exit price net profit 06 01 2012 sell 0 02 gbpjpy 119 766 06 01 2012 119 364 10 30 06 04 2012 buy 0 02 audcad 1 01141 06 06 2012 1 01734 11 74 06 12 2012 sell 0 02 audnzd 1 27850 06 25 2012 1 27112 10 47 06 18 2012 sell 0 02 euraud 1 24571 06 26 2012 1 24135 10 45 new orders since end of day 05 31 2012 still outstanding as of end of day 06 30 2012 date of entry type of entry currency pair lot size entry price 06 01 2012 sell 0 02 gbpusd 1 53097 06 04 2012 sell 0 02 usdhkd 7 75812 06 21 2012 buy 0 02 audjpy 81 551 06 26 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 79831 06 29 2012 sell 0 02 usdmxn 13 3988 carried orders since before end of day 05 31 2012 still outstanding as of end of day 06 30 2012 date of entry type of entry currency pair lot size entry price 08 04 2011 sell 0 01 usdcad 0 96454 08 04 2011 sell 0 01 usdmxn 11 8786 08 08 2011 sell 0 01 usdmxn 12 1198 09 06 2011 sell 0 01 usdchf 0 82308 09 08 2012 sell 0 01 usdchf 0 86223 12 07 2011 buy 0 01 eurgbp 0 85187 12 20 2011 buy 0 01 euraud 1 29814 01 05 2012 buy 0 01 usdhkd 7 76620 01 09 2012 buy 0 01 audnzd 1 30351 01 09 2012 buy 0 01 usdtry 1 8710 01 09 2012 sell 0 01 eurchf 1 21285 02 14 2012 sell 0 01 usdjpy 77 798 03 14 2012 buy 0 01 eurchf 1 21465 04 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurchf 1 20110 04 27 2012 sell 0 02 usdchf 0 90502 05 17 2012 sell 0 02 usdcnh 0 90502 05 18 2012 buy 0 02 eurtry 2 35131 05 22 2012 buy 0 02 audnzd 1 30114 05 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 79843 05 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurchf 1 20050 equity balance 06 30 2012 4 345 89 current month return 0 070 initial 10 31 2009 balance 2 360 46 current yield since inception 84 113 annualized return 25 731 average monthly return 1 926 11 1 2009 7 31 2010 89 71 8 1 2010 10 17 2010 the date at which point i ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions 34 35 10 18 2010 12 31 2010 11 94 1 1 2011 1 31 2011 7 23 2 1 2011 8 31 2011 29 80 9 1 2011 9 30 2011 20 68 10 1 2011 11 30 2011 27 34 12 1 2011 12 31 2011 5 06 01 1 2012 01 31 2012 8 15 02 1 2012 02 29 2012 5 749 03 01 2012 05 31 2012 12 275 06 01 2012 06 30 2012 0 070 journal notes received an interesting e mail from the brokerage where i place my trades on 6 15 making it clear that they offer no trading advice they nevertheless gave the heads up on the greek parliamentary vote on the following sunday it was just a statement of potential volatility in the market to come so it was a reminder for people to assess exposure so they can make sure they have stop losses in tow close any overexposed positions etc i can t remember getting that kind of heads up e mail before i m a fan of volatility even with short term losses i usually pick up extra positions that bounce the other way before too long and i find volatility to be good profit opportunities so i made no changes to my trading strategy as it turns out the result of the elections was such that the excessive volatility never materialized in fact june was an overall quiet month posted in currency trading forex gold investing trading strategies tagged currency trading forex gold investing trading leave a comment forex account update as of 5 31 2012 posted by the diatribe guy on may 31 2012 account update as of 5 31 2012 outstanding orders as of end of day 04 30 2012 settled by end of day 05 31 2012 date of entry type of entry lot size currency pair entry price date of settlement exit price net profit 04 23 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 81558 05 02 2012 0 81220 10 98 04 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurcad 1 30131 05 03 2012 1 29842 5 87 04 10 2012 sell 0 01 cadjpy 80 476 05 08 2012 79 970 5 19 03 13 2012 sell 0 02 eurcad 1 29446 05 11 2012 1 28881 12 55 03 23 2012 buy 0 01 usdcad 1 00245 05 16 2012 1 00950 5 10 02 08 2012 sell 0 01 eurjpy 102 192 05 17 2012 101 488 6 41 01 20 2012 sell 0 01 audjpy 80 768 05 17 2012 79 182 1 76 04 30 2012 sell 0 02 usdjpy 79 846 05 17 2012 79 387 10 81 02 07 2012 sell 0 01 chfjpy 84 072 05 23 2012 83 548 6 60 02 08 2012 sell 0 01 cadjpy 77 562 05 30 2012 76 761 5 64 02 07 2012 sell 0 01 gbpjpy 121 973 05 31 2012 120 972 8 80 04 27 2012 sell 0 02 euraud 1 27019 05 31 2012 1 26882 10 58 net profit means profit after consideration of swap fees these can be negative or positive new orders since end of day 04 30 2012 settled by end of day 05 31 2012 date of entry type of entry lot size currency pair entry price date of settlement exit price net profit 05 02 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 81365 05 03 2012 0 81227 4 47 05 07 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 80613 05 09 2012 0 80330 9 12 05 14 2012 buy 0 02 usdmxn 13 6085 05 14 2012 13 6802 10 48 05 14 2012 sell 0 02 eurusd 1 28823 05 14 2012 1 28323 10 00 05 14 2012 buy 0 02 usdtry 1 8083 05 15 2012 1 8227 14 88 05 16 2012 sell 0 02 gbpusd 1 59689 05 16 2012 1 59188 10 02 05 17 2012 sell 0 02 eurjpy 101 805 05 17 2012 101 494 7 79 05 17 2012 sell 0 02 audjpy 78 464 05 21 2012 78 029 10 48 05 18 2012 sell 0 02 nzdusd 0 75483 05 23 2012 0 74961 9 98 05 28 2012 sell 0 02 eurcad 1 28481 05 29 2012 1 27951 10 34 05 30 2012 sell 0 02 chfjpy 82 141 05 30 2012 81 715 10 79 05 23 2012 buy 0 02 usdmxn 14 0397 05 30 2012 14 1477 13 22 05 30 2012 sell 0 02 cadjpy 76 607 05 31 2012 76 010 14 81 05 31 2012 sell 0 02 eurjpy 97 666 05 31 2012 97 162 12 83 new orders since end of day 04 30 2012 still outstanding as of end of day 05 31 2012 date of entry type of entry currency pair lot size entry price 05 17 2012 sell 0 02 usdcnh 0 90502 05 18 2012 buy 0 02 eurtry 2 35131 05 22 2012 buy 0 02 audnzd 1 30114 05 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurgbp 0 79843 05 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurchf 1 20050 carried orders since before end of day 04 30 2012 still outstanding as of end of day 05 31 2012 date of entry type of entry currency pair lot size entry price 08 04 2011 sell 0 01 usdcad 0 96454 08 04 2011 sell 0 01 usdmxn 11 8786 08 08 2011 sell 0 01 usdmxn 12 1198 09 06 2011 sell 0 01 usdchf 0 82308 09 08 2012 sell 0 01 usdchf 0 86223 12 07 2011 buy 0 01 eurgbp 0 85187 12 20 2011 buy 0 01 euraud 1 29814 01 03 2012 buy 0 01 usdcnh 6 31580 01 05 2012 buy 0 01 usdhkd 7 76620 01 09 2012 buy 0 01 audnzd 1 30351 01 09 2012 buy 0 01 usdtry 1 8710 01 09 2012 sell 0 01 eurchf 1 21285 02 14 2012 sell 0 01 usdjpy 77 798 03 14 2012 buy 0 01 eurchf 1 21465 04 25 2012 sell 0 02 eurchf 1 20110 04 27 2012 sell 0 02 usdchf 0 90502 equity balance 05 31 2012 4 348 92 current month return 1 604 initial 10 31 2009 balance 2 360 46 current yield since inception 84 240 annualized return 26 684 average monthly return 1 958 11 1 2009 7 31 2010 89 71 8 1 2010 10 17 2010 the date at which point i ceased the short strategy and liquidated positions 34 35 10 18 2010 12 31 2010 11 94 1 1 2011 1 31 2011 7 23 2 1 2011 8 31 2011 29 80 9 1 2011 9 30 2011 20 68 10 1 2011 11 30 2011 27 34 12 1 2011 12 31 2011 5 06 01 1 2012 01 31 2012 8 15 02 1 2012 02 29 2012 5 749 03 01 2012 05 31 2012 12 275 journal notes posted in currency trading forex gold investing trading strategies tagged currency trading forex gold investing trading leave a comment the embarrassment that is the allianz climate change report posted by the diatribe guy on may 30 2012 i am an actuary in the insurance industry and so receive information of all sorts that are supposed to enlighten me and assist me in my job whether it is a better model to use in forecasting future experience based on current trends for the purpose of pricing products or accurate assessment of ultimate losses on current inforce products it is imperative that i understand new advancements in predictive modeling underlying trends and results of different studies to most benefit my company and the customers we serve in this capacity i recently came across a 97 page effort by allianz in partnership with get this the wwf world wide fund for nature entitled major tipping points in the earth s climate system and consequences of the insurance sector as someone who wants to base pricing considerations on observed experience and modeled trends i was curious about this paper and how it is implied that this is to be used by the insurance industry the report isn t a new one but it was the first i had run across it the very first line of the paper reads climate change resulting from emissions of co2 and other greenhouse gases ghgs is widely regarded to be the greatest environmental challenge facing the world today ominous page one teaches us some interesting details i learned that there is no global agreement or scientific consensus for delineating dangerous from acceptable climate change but 2 degrees celsius seems like a good number the origin of that 2 degree number is not clear but seems to be promoted based on the unfccc assessment report ar4 we then learn about tipping points the theory here is that while temperature may increase gradually there are points where a small change can make a big difference in the system the cited reference here is m gladwell the tipping point how little things can make a big difference it is unclear to me if this is a how to book on marriage or something spelling out the global catastrophes to come but apparently it s good enough for the reinsurance industry well anyway this is just the executive summary which includes examples of tipping points it appears we are talking about disasters such as effects of rise in sea levels a shift in monsoon seasons amazon drought and an overly arid southwest u s no mention of comets or alien attack so i guess we re sticking to things we can control there is then a touching take home message to conclude the executive summary we learn that past emissions have already committed us to at least 0 6 degrees of further warming because we re lazy and lackluster in our efforts to combat it the 2 3 degrees scenario is almost certain to happen ominous i must say as i read the actual body of the document i was pretty disappointed with my reinsurance brothers and sisters we start with simply references to other works clearly fed to them by wwf and other environmentalist groups un studies ipcc papers etc tell us there will not be a smooth transition into warmer temperatures this leads into the definitions and characteristics of tipping points which let s be honest insurance people will not know whether the studies they are reading are right or wrong they re insurance people but in any case it doesn t appear that there was a serious attempt to reach out to alternative opinons on the matter nobody called me which can be expected more importantly i don t think dr roy spencer got a call either i don t even think jeff from the air vent was consulted a travesty section 2 focuses on identifying tipping elements based on ipcc ar4 on a serious note from a reinsurance standpoint the things they are looking at need to be considered for the purpose of understanding exposure to risk what kind of storm activity tends to occur with changes in the enso amplitude what is the exposure in the event of differences in monsoon activity around the globe what are the insurance impacts to glaciers melting what are the impacts of this event or that event all legitimate questions to make sure the company can sustain viability should certain things occur that impact loss payouts the issue i have here is putting such study in a document that doesn t just use global warming theory as a what if scenario but presents it as a given we then get into all sorts of scenarios around different tipping points it s all the same stuff greenland arctic ice sea level rises the antarctic carbon stores in permafrost amplified global warming you know and so on then we get into tipping points that can tip other points or something like that section 3 highlights the greatest risks to our dismal future so what am i most disappointed in my disappointment is mainly that this is a piece of propaganda disguised as an insurance study if it is an insurance study it s a horrible one and i d fire anyone who resented it to me as a definitive assessment i see no industry experience and actual trends presented it is a study in the sense that it covers a lot of what if scenarios which is an entirely legitimate exercise but it provides them as a near certainty as opposed to a random probabilistic event oh sure there are a lot of graphs and charts that lead one to believe that this is a rigorous study but it is not it is a study that has at its basis a complete trust in the views and conclusions of a few un sponsored reports and other data that is derived in its entirety from the pro agw side it reeks of being a un lapdog in anticipation of taking advantage of climate change scenarios and scare tactics for a lining of the pockets and future power grab the study into the what ifs seems pretty sound this part is fine which is what i would expect from experts in the reinsurance industry because this is what they do they assess exposures risks and loss impacts given a scenario in which to estimate that impact this paper however assumes the scenario to be reality so what is my analysis on why allianz would release an otherwise legitimate exposure analysis in the form of a drivel packed politically correct report m o n e y suppose that allianz convinces regulators and customers alike of the need for a loss provision due to global warming impacts in their policies imagine tax advantages for surplus funds set aside for these events now imagine that every future weather event can be attributed to global warming wait i mean climate change so that a demonstrable drawdown on global warming reserves reinforces the idea of human cause impacts on the weather and storms the propaganda becomes self perpetuating and ever more profitable at some point it is likely that all weather risk can be transferred at a guaranteed margin to a global fund to cover all climate change related events more conspiratorial imagine a world of crony capitalism where those who were on the right side benefit disproportionately as the un wields more power and is able to give preferential treatment to its friends with the right message this is simply allianz seeing the future and hoping to profit from it and to help it along what better than to actually promote the entire idea yourself all in so to speak yeah color me skeptical i ve got news for everyone who wants to give reinsurers the benefit of the doubt i ve been in this business long enough to realize that despite all their fancy modeling and theories they are the least rational reactionaries to risk there is supposedly this price is based on long term history until something happens at which time your rates quadruple then as competitors enter the market they end up underpricing products so whatever sophistication they start with it goes out the window in a real hurry but i m sure this is different and i m sure they mean well for more fun with allianz and climate change tipping points check this out http knowledge allianz com climate_tipping_points climate_en html poste...