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caribbean digital diatribes digital diatribes a presentation of data on climate and other stuff home contact joe learn about joe categories actuarial topics 3 al gore 2 alaska 3 allianz 1 animal stories 1 animals 3 antarctic oscillation aao 1 antarctica 10 arctic 20 arctic oscillation index 2 astronomy 5 atlantic multidecadal oscillation amo 6 atlantic multidecadal oscillation amo index 4 balance 1 blog ranking 3 blog stats 2 blogging 20 bottled water 1 business 2 california 2 campaign trail 2 canada 2 cap and trade 1 carbon taxes 3 carbon trading 2 caribbean 1 china 2 climate change 133 climategate 1 congress 4 conventions 2 crops 1 culture 1 currency trading 23 current events 46 cycles 57 data 26 doomsday clock 1 earth 120 earth day 1 earth worship 1 earthquakes 1 eclipse 2 eddy 1 education 1 edwards 1 el nino 7 elections 1 enso 15 environmentalism 6 epo 1 family 2 feedback effects 1 fish 1 food 1 forex 39 game 2 geomagnetism 1 giss 7 glaciers 2 global warming 147 gold 39 green children s books 1 green music 1 greenhouse gases 3 greenland 1 guest posts 4 hadcrut 22 health 1 himalayas 1 humor 4 hurricanes 1 ice age 2 ice area 8 ice shelf 1 indoctrination 2 information 18 investing 29 james hansen 1 jerry brown 1 kids 1 la nina 6 landscheidt 7 las vegas 1 legislation 1 life 18 los angeles 1 lunar cycles 1 magnetic shield 2 military 2 moon 2 mount redoubt 1 music 1 news 40 noaa 1 obama 2 oceans 17 opinion 8 osama bin laden 1 pacific ocean 4 parenting 2 pdo 5 peer review 2 peru 1 peta 1 phil jones 1 planetary skin 1 pluto 1 plutoids 1 polar bears 1 political correctness 2 politics 16 portfolio 1 review 1 rss 13 russia 2 santa 1 science 119 seeds 1 severe weather 5 snow 9 solar cycles 15 solar system 1 space 1 stephen wilde 1 stocks 1 sun 17 sunspots 7 technology 3 television 1 temperature analysis 106 temperature maps 4 thanks 1 ticks 1 tides 2 trading strategies 30 tropics 3 uah 6 united nations 3 updates 18 video 1 volcanos 1 weather 60 winter 13 wisconsin 13 blog stats 219 796 hits posts by date october 2026 m t w t f s s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 jul top posts forex account update as of 6 30 2012 forex account update as of 5 31 2012 the embarrassment that is the allianz climate change report april 2012 hadcrut anomaly random slope charts hadcrut temperature trends for the last 360 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 300 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 240 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 180 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 120 months hadcrut archives archives select month july 2012 1 may 2012 32 june 2011 8 november 2010 1 july 2010 7 june 2010 1 may 2010 4 april 2010 6 march 2010 5 february 2010 4 january 2010 15 december 2009 7 october 2009 1 september 2009 15 august 2009 2 july 2009 2 june 2009 15 may 2009 4 april 2009 8 february 2009 10 january 2009 13 december 2008 17 november 2008 9 october 2008 10 september 2008 9 august 2008 7 july 2008 12 june 2008 13 may 2008 11 april 2008 9 march 2008 4 february 2008 5 january 2008 1 may 2007 1 march 2007 1 february 2007 2 blogroll accuweather blog blue marble climate bob tisdale chilling effect climate audit climate realists climate sanity climate skeptic icecap jennifer marohasy lucia s blackboard planet gore at national review the air vent unbearable nakedness of climate change watts up with that world climate report links relating to my music and cd joe at cd baby joe at digstation my bio my cd description my other blogs catholic diatribes personal diatribes political diatribes ocean data aao antarctic aao antarctic old amo atl multidecadal ao arctic caribbean see car column enso index epo east pacific nati n atl tropics no northern noa n atlantic pdo pacific decadal pnao pac n american soi southern tna trop n atlantic tsa trop s atlantic wpo west pacific other resources climate maps geomagnetism data surface stations project wood for trees other sites actuarial outpost ice age now sea ice resources ijis arctic sea ice nansen ice extent nh sea ice last 365 days nh sea ice 1978 current nh sea ice anomaly nsidc arctic ice extent sh ice anomaly sh sea ice last year sh sea ice extent since 1978 solar links current pic of sun landscheidt papers noaa sunspot counts solar cycle 24 solar flux data temperature data daily temperatures giss data hadcrut data noaa data rss data uah data uah detail recent comments deacon on a closer look at oceanic oscil kyla on amo update june 2 self improvement hel on full eclipse coming and the l ark dedicated server on carbon dioxide and feedback g tronsr org on full eclipse coming and the l http villa stella on full eclipse coming and the l stopping smoking on full eclipse coming and the l alternative medicine on full eclipse coming and the l naked girls webcam on full eclipse coming and the l coax connector types on full eclipse coming and the l subscribe entries rss comments rss recent diatribes forex account update as of 6 30 2012 forex account update as of 5 31 2012 the embarrassment that is the allianz climate change report april 2012 hadcrut anomaly random slope charts hadcrut temperature trends for the last 360 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 300 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 240 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 180 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 120 months hadcrut temperature trends for the last 60 months hadcrut overall hadcrut trends as of march month end 2012 forex account update as of 4 30 2012 through 04 30 2012 forex account update as of 4 30 2012 through 03 31 2012 forex account update as of 4 30 2012 through 02 29 2012 top clicks none archive for the caribbean category a gander at the caribbean oscillation index posted by the diatribe guy on september 29 2009 we hear a lot about the enso index the pdo index and the amo index i ve also taken a look at the arctic and antarctic oscillation indices but there are more quite a few more actually while i have not done a comprehensive study on these myself one would assume that the reason we hear about the pdo amo and enso is because these have quite evidently shown correlation to weather patterms that affect a lot of people and it may well be the case that these are the main drivers that matter and all the other ones have only negligible contributory effects nevertheless some time ago i decided i wanted to take a closer look at these readers here will notice that i ve been focusing on ocean index posts recently based on the wide discussion that has broken out on these posts yes that s sarcasm it doesn t appear that this is the main point of interest to a lot of people that s ok hopefully it s interesting at some level but it s an important aspect of a full study on global temperature and i still have the goal of doing a full analysis at some point combining the impacts of all these measures along with solar cycles and co2 levels as the next step in this journey i have compiled the data from the caribbean index it is found as part of this data set under the car column the permanent link to this is on the right of this page i wasn t sure what to expect on this index as you recall the polar regions didn t demonstrate any shorter term cyclicality to speak of while the majors that everyone speaks of did show clear cyclicality the results of the raw data plot with the best fit sine curve are shown here caribbean oscillation data as of 200908 it certainly looks as if there s some cyclical thing occurring here based on a best fit analysis it s not quite as predominant as the amo and pdo but it s there there do seem to be short term spikes with some months of persistence similar to enso the best fit line has the following parameters a phase reduction of 0 61 degrees per month implies a full cycle of 49 15 years there is a vertical shift downward of 0 053 needed with a linear trend of 0 000187 which is a rate of 0 224 degrees celsius per century thus the index on average has been understated enough to be noticeable and has exhibited an upward trend over time this longer term upward trend is more noticeable in the charts below as we collapse the data into longer term rolling averages caution is needed to make sure we understand the autocorrelation but even considering that there is an upward trend in the caribbean surface temps exhibited similar to enso however there look to be shorter term spikes that may play more immediately into the local temperature weather patterns since october 1989 we ve seen the following stretches of positive negative anomalies keep in mind that the best fit implies that there should be a shift from these figures 198910 199108 23 consecutive positive anomalies 199109 199410 31 of the 38 months negative anomalies 199411 199601 15 consecutive positive anomalies 199602 199703 5 consecutive negative 4 consecutive positive 3 negative 1 positive 1 negative 199404 199910 31 consecutive positive anomalies 199911 200007 9 consecutive negative anomalies 200008 2007121 89 consecutive positive anomalies since then it s been back and forth caribbean oscillation data as of 200908 12 month smoothing caribbean oscillation data as of 200908 5 year smoothing caribbean oscillation data as of 200908 10 year smoothing posted in caribbean cycles earth oceans science tagged caribbean cycles oceans science 2 comments blog at wordpress com subscribe subscribed digital diatribes sign me up have a wordpress com account log in now privacy digital diatribes view site in reader manage subscriptions sign up log in report this content collapse this bar design a site like this with wordpress com get started